Ruud van Dijk

Cold War and Cycling--Together Again

2011-10-20T12:57:00.000-07:00

It has been a long time since I've had anything to report about my own riding, and the kind of riding I've done is partly to blame. Yet, every time I begin to tell someone that this year I've just not done the kind of rides one would like to do (hilly rides, century rides, all-day-there's-nothing-else-that-really-matters-rides--no Sardinia!), I realize that, of course, I did do the Grandfondo Val di Cecina last March. Come to think of it, I had two weeks, in two different regions, in France with my bike in the summer. Furthermore, just this month, thanks to a nuclear history workshop held in nearby Prato, I did two very nice loops south of Florence (that would be Florence, Italy, not Florence, Kansas--although I would not mind at all doing a Flint Hills ride again). So what's my problem? I don't know either. The Granfondo was spring training (although, with a good friend of mine, one might rightly ask: training what for, mr. "I-don't-race-anymore"?), France was summer vacation (but with beautiful roads in the Tarn region, and this, this, and this climb, among others, in the Alps), and this month, Cold War (the workshop) and cycling (the couple of extra days we took in Florence) came back together again. Why not take a few extra days if you have to travel to a place like Tuscany? Especially if there's an institution such as Florence By Bike? I was able to rent a full carbon Bianchi from them for two days, and not only that, they also went out of their way to help me find my way around. How many kilometers was I thinking of? Did I like to climb? And so they mapped out a 105 km loop with lots of up-and-down on quiet little roads. Given that all this was south of Florence (in the direction of Siena), there's no need to dwell on the fact that it was also a beautiful loop. I was surprised, however, how quickly after leaving town the roads already got quiet (almost the whole way to Impruneta, with its metally-tasting water). After Impruneta, I had the roads almost to myself (or so it felt): Strada in Chianti, Dudda to Radda in Chianti, and back up via Lucarelli, Panzana, Mercatale, to San Casciano. The last twenty kilometers back into the city (by way of Galluzzo) were a little busier, but it was still rolling, it was still Tuscany, so nobody heard me complain. The loop was so nice, I did it twice, also because the second time around I would not have to stop so often to double-check my map. I'd certainly recommend it, but not to a beginner. On the way out, there are some nice, longer, steady climbs, maxing out around 6%; between Panzana and Mercatale you get treated to steeper up-and-down stuff, where on the short 10-12% uphill sections it's hard to find a rhythm. On the whole, an excellent loop if you'd like to get a real ride that still leaves you with a little energy for strolling around Florence later in the day. About that nuclear history business, I'll write something later.

America, the Economizing Power

2011-10-14T02:31:00.000-07:00

My friend and colleague Jeremi Suri, he of the new Liberty's Surest Guardian, has an op-ed in the New York Times today in which he argues that the United States rigorously should set priorities--and shed responsibilities and ambitions--in foreign policy. This goes beyond the Obama administration's national security strategy of last year (although it echoes it), and it also goes beyond the Libya "leading from behind" mantra. I like the article but wonder whether it doesn't expect too much of the president, who, of course, should still lead, and too little of others, especially the Republican opposition. Suri's first national priority, after all, is to preserve the dollar's global reserve currency status, and if there's anything we've learned this year is that getting America's financial house in order requires bi-partisan decisions. There's more to be said about this piece, which does get us into the specifics of how a declining hegemon like the U.S. ought to reorder its priorities, but I have to go read about the Cold War now.

It's More Than a Political Crisis, It's an Existential One

2011-09-23T13:08:00.000-07:00

It's hard not to think all the time about the crisis that Europe is wading into ever more deeply. Reading the papers these days really reminds of the stories from the early years of the Great Depression: lots of trouble, availability of certain effective responses, but inability of leaders to implement them, individually or collectively, and often even measures that exacerbate the problems. I'm not an expert on international finance or economics, but there are many people writing who are, and if you try to interpret what they're really saying, the picture is grim. Greece won't be able to pay its debts (ever) or even meet Europe's requirements for the next transfer of aid money, but European leaders can't recognize this, even though to some observers (for example my trusty Economist) it's been clear for close to two years. The consequences of a restructuring of the Greek debt would hurt, especially in better-off European countries, like France and Germany, but it would hurt far less than continued uncertainty--uncertainty about what will happen to Greece (stay within the Euro, or not? go bankrupt, and if so, in what way?), but uncertainty especially about whether "Europe" is capable of addressing its most fundamental problems in an effective way. This particular kind of uncertainty also makes it more likely that other European countries become more vulnerable to falling market confidence. Some, we've all seen their names mentioned regularly, do have structural weaknesses in their economies and large budget deficits, but the biggest problem seems to be lack of confidence in "Europe's" ability to contain the real crisis to the weakest link--Greece--and protect the others.

The past day or two, we hear a lot more talk of a likely Greek debt restructuring, but this doesn't mean that the Euro zone's political leaders have accepted its inevitability, let alone their respective public opinions. So we still need to get leaders, Merkel, Sarkozy, to accept the inevitable. Once we get there, however, the next step is reaching a concrete European agreement on this new course, which for its part will then have to be cleared by the many national parliaments. (And as of today, September 23, we're still waiting for the ratification of Europe's last major plan for Greece and the Euro zone, dating back to July 21. You read that right: it's crisis time, but Europe takes more than two months to ratify essential and urgent plans to deal with the situation. Democracy is messy, but this looks more like self-mutulation).

Time is of the essence here, and the way "Europe" operates therefore virtually assures failure. "Europe" has always operated this way through its half-century of integration: very incrementally, often acrimoniously, certainly not always logically, let alone efficiently. (In hindsight, it really wasn't such a good idea to launch a common currency before having the concomitant common fiscal and economic policies in place). According to Angela Merkel recently (probably the one person who could, if she wanted to take the political risk, enforce a different modus operandi) it's still the way things get done, and her implication was that we'll just have to accept this. The scary thing is: she may be right: "Europe" as it exists right now--its institutions, its political leadership, its peoples--really may not be able to act swiftly and decisively, not even when the future of its currency, its standard of living, perhaps its many accomplishments since the 1950s are at stake. Measures that on the merits would make the most sense are politically unreachable, and so leaders don't want to go there, or they go there so slowly as to make the whole process virtually irrelevant.

And so too little gets done too late. That's irritating, but not lethal, in good times. In a dangerous financial situation such as ours today, it may well lead, not just to a new major global financial and economic downturn, it could also end "Europe" as we know it. Of course, if "Europe" can't, won't reach for available, constructive measures to save itself, by definition it cannot be saved, doesn't deserve to be. We'll be sorry in a few years, because for all of "Europe's" significant flaws, life without it is likely to be more chaotic and less prosperous, for Europeans, but also others. It's not that long ago that, in an disorderly post-Cold War or post 9/11 world, we thought that at least Europe had figured out how to work together on an ever-growing number of subjects--a model for other regions, really. Boy, were we all wrong.

Froome Watch: Stage Winner

2011-09-07T08:09:00.000-07:00

Our man attacked, got reeled back in, and attacked again for the stage win. For a minute, it looked as if his attack on today's final climb would take him to the overall lead, but Juan Jose Cobo didn't really crack but instead fought himself back to Chris's wheel and even passed him. You could see how both racers were each giving the absolute maximum. But after being passed, Chris found it within himself to get to the finish, and the 20 seconds bonification, first. He was, however, just one second ahead of Cobo, who himself receives 12 extra seconds, and so the total gain was only nine seconds, which still leaves Chris 13 seconds short of the race lead. But it was the most exciting couple of minutes of bike racing I've watched all year. Chris just did his post-race interview and called today perhaps his hardest day ever on the bike. It showed, and what more can one expect? He's on the podium now, and actually looks the women in the eye (all around nice guy!). There aren't too many opportunities left, but Madrid is still a couple of days away (he's happily spraying the champagne around now), so who knows. It won't be the fans who will keep him from winning, if we go by today's conduct. When Chris was on the attack, and Cobo appeared to be cracking, I worried about some person interfering with the race, but even though (as usual on these steep climbs) the fans were all over the road, people cheered Chris just about as enthusiastically as Cobo. So there's probably some battle left, although Cobo seems very strong (and he has a good team). But it's awfully close, especially with these bonification bonuses at the finish every day. Of course, second in the Vuelta is more than anyone, including this Froome fan, expected at the outset. Chris himself seems very pleased too, and why not? It's his big breakthrough: grand tour contender--how many people can say that?

Froome Watch: Live

2011-09-06T08:14:00.001-07:00

I am taking a break to watch the last hour of today's stage in the Vuelta, and who's mixing it up in the last intermediate sprint, coming away with two seconds time gain? Yes indeed. On Sunday, Chris also left his leader, Wiggins, behind on the horribly steep Angrilu, and now he's the best-placed rider on his team with a shot at the final victory. My Flemish commentators, Michel Wuyts and Jose de Cauwer, have been in awe of Chris for days now, and who can blame them?

It's About Politics And It's Not Looking Good

2011-09-05T13:34:00.000-07:00

I'm not reporting anything new--shouldn't, at least--but even though the current crises in Europe and the U.S. continue to be referred to as "financial" or "economic" or "debt," they're really crises of politics. In Europe, plans that appear to have the best chance at stabilizing the common currency situation require greater political integration (a kind of European government), but no leader interested in his or her survival in power is going to put this to the electorate. Some appear to think that the old European muddling-through approach can get us to the same place without explicit voter approval, but I think they're deluding themselves. The alternative is letting countries like Greece fail as members of the Euro (it may be closer than we think), but that would cost banks and others in wealthier Euro countries money (and it could also trigger another economic downturn), and so we don't want to countenance that either. So what do we, what do Europeans want? Europeans don't want to good times to be over, don't want to make the downward adjustment after collectively living beyond their means for a decade or so. The Greeks don't want to do it, but the Germans don't want to either, and there do not appear to be leaders who can persuade them otherwise. It's not very different in the U.S., as we were able to see during the debt-ceiling farce this past summer. The national debt is a problem, but from what I read, it's especially a problem over the longer term and could be brought under control by some sensible policies for that longer term envisioning both tax and entitlement reform. But either kind of reform would inflict pain, and there's been a lot of it in the U.S. in the past years (though not divided evenly, just like wealth has not been divided evenly--less so than ever in the past 20-30 years), and so there's great resistance to it. This being America, the greatest clamor has been for budget cuts and entitlement reform, but in a time when the division of wealth is skewed so much in favor of the top 5%, and government revenue as a proportion of GDP is as low as it has been in 30 or so years, it's just not politically feasible to try to find all the money there while not doing something about tax loopholes and revenue increases. But a grand compromise appears very remote, maybe impossible before next year's presidential election. I think that the nitty-gritty of political compromise in both cases is so difficult because psychologically neither Europeans nor Americans have truly left the pre-crisis days behind. Many have been forced to do so, of course, but collectively we seem to believe that it just can't be that the 1990s, and even the early 2000s, really are history and that we'll have to adjust to a lower standard of living for the foreseeable future. It's easy to speak of a crisis of leadership, but what leader is going to go to the electorate with this message? It really does look like it has to get worse before it can get better; it may be that we need the collapse we avoided in 2008-2009 for enough people to realize that we're in a different era--a bit like the 1930s. (And maybe then there will be leaders who can force through the reforms needed to repair things). I'm not looking forward to it, and it's not inevitable, but given the problems and the way they fester, I think we may as well brace ourselves. That would be the ultimate irony, though: incapable of reaching for the compromises available to avoid disaster, we'd be preparing instead for the disaster. It would be (at least could be seen as) the bankruptcy of liberal democracy.

Froome Watch, the Bandwagon Version

2011-09-01T13:02:00.000-07:00

Not sure if this is the right way to resume, but Christopher Froome, the Team Sky member whom I met last year at the start of the Giro d'Italia, has been doing very well in the Tour of Spain (Vuelta). He stayed close to the lead all through the first week and then did a hell of a turn at the front in support of his team leader Bradley Wiggins last Sunday, grinding off lots of big names in the process (and hanging on when Wiggins took over!). He next surprised everyone, including himself, with a second place in Monday's time trial, beating specialists like Wiggins and Fabian Cancellara ("Spartacus," he of the alleged electric bike--alleged!) on the way to first place overall and the red leader jersey. He lost the jersey to Wiggins yesterday, but he's still sitting pretty in second place. It's great to see a talented young racer pull it all together in a major stage race. So here we are: a new season of the Froome watch, a resumption of blogging here, and very soon also words about matters relating to war and peace.

On Hiatus, Obviously

2011-06-15T08:06:00.000-07:00

It's not that I don't have things to say, it's more that I don't seem to find the time to think anything through, anything other than work-related stuff, of which there always seems to be plenty and which always seems to take priority. I'm still riding, I'm still reading, and I'm still writing, just not here for the moment. But "here" is on my mind, and here is where I shall return.

I'm in the Paper!

2011-03-24T09:09:00.000-07:00

Today. Not that it has never happened before. I'm in the paper somewhere in the Netherlands just about every month. Have been for years. But late last year the syndicate of regional papers I've been contributing to for the past ten years had to cut cost, and so the occasional op-ed writers were let go. Since that time I've made contact with several of the individual papers, and in January (on the Arizona shooting and the political debate in the U.S.) and earlier this month (Wisconsin union battle) this led to articles in the Leeuwarder Courant (of Frysland), and today I have commentary on President Obama as "imperial president" in the Nederlands Dagblad. They told me yesterday that it would come out today, so I went to buy the paper this afternoon. It had been a while since I had done that. The article is a commentary on the way the president took the country into the Lybian intervention, and how members of Congres have criticized it. The argument is that Obama is much like his predecessors in the office, including George W. Bush: he's an imperial president at the head of a powerful national security state. I don't dig too deeply into the reasons why there seems to be such a big difference between Obama the candidate and Obama the president on this, but the suggestion is that the structure, the machine, the complex that is the national security/surveillance state has a way of severely limiting the room for maneuver individual politicians may seek for themselves. This very much includes the president, on whose desk the national security buck stops. Of course, given that in the Lybia case no vital U.S. national interests seemed to be at stake, is has worked a little differently here as far as the motive is concerned. (Secretary Gates's apparent reluctance for the U.S. to get involved suggests that the Pentagon certainly was not chomping at the bit to get the country into this operation). It's a war of choice, and maybe it will turn out to have been the right choice. Let's hope so. But I think the way Congres feels taken for granted (it's probably right about this) is revealing of how much leeway presidents have in these matters nowadays. The unhappiness has not developed into a firestorm, and if things work out in Lybia it probably won't. But I'm wondering if we're not gradually reaching a turning point in executive-Congressional relations similar to what we saw at the end of the Vietnam era. Such a Congressional push-back would fit nicely with the insurgency type of politics we're seeing right now. Might not be a bad thing, if it was done right.

Club of One?

2011-02-13T14:36:00.000-08:00

In the run-up to last week's Superbowl, there were some communications between the founder of Pittsburgh's Dirty Dozen and the founder of Wisconsin's Bone Ride if the representative of the losing city/state might finally have to do the other's ride. This discussion was not resolved, but in the course of the back-and-forth it occurred to me that I don't know of anyone else who, like me, has completed both unique cycling events. The two founders could not name anyone either. In 1997 I tied for rookie of the year on the Dirty Dozen's thirteen spectacular hills in and around Pittsburgh (for those in the know: I got points on several hills using as my lowest gear a 39x26; didn't get the honor because unlike Mark Nicholl and Adam Pollock, I did not win any hills). At a much busier time in my life I rode it again in 1999, just to finish (but I managed to sneak ahead to the Liberty Tunnel passage to exit first). One day, I'll get my name on the list of people with three or more DDs to their name. Living in Milwaukee several years later, in 2005, I rode the 155 miles out and back between Wauwatosa and Madison along with about 100 others, divided into pelotons of 25. There are no points on the Bone Ride (other than for style and conduct, as on every group ride), but I remember that the pulls I took on the way home started to hurt more and more. The two founders raced together in the 1980s. When Tom won the national championship in1987, Danny also finished in the top 20 (Tom has a film that shows Danny). Which founder is going to have a harder time on the other's ride? Tom never liked climbing very much, but that championship course had a very nasty hill in it. By now, it really doesn't matter at all. It would be fun, however, to see the mutual guest appearances take place, so that I'm no longer in this club of one (or is there already someone else?)

Reagan and the Netherlands

2011-02-06T12:52:00.000-08:00

Ronald Reagan would have turned 100 years old today, and to mark the occasion the Dutch news weekly Elsevier's weekblad has published one of its special commemorative issues for which Giles Scott Smith and I provided an article on "Dutch" Reagan and the Netherlands. We drew on our respective archival research on the 1980s (and that of our friend James Graham Wilson), so even though the piece is very accessible, it actually contains some bits and pieces of material that are fairly unknown. The booklet (in Dutch) is still on sale at all newsstands in the Netherlands, and you can also order the abundantly illustrated and nicely produced booklet on-line.

January Legs

2011-01-31T13:05:00.000-08:00

I have them, this was confirmed last Saturday on the first team ride of the year. Last year I logged 6452 miles, but about half of those were from the 87 times I did the out-and-back to work in Amsterdam (32, 34, or 36 miles, depending on the route). So I resolved to do more team rides this year, because riding with the Eendracht guys (hard men all, and one woman; I now wear the jersey) makes you better. I need to get better. Amid the awful winter weather we've had since early December I've tried to keep things going, but a telling statistic is that since December 1 I've only ridden the bike to my Amsterdam office once. Last Sunday my riding partner was able to hurt me a little (while being twelve or thirteen years older). I had been out on Saturday also, and he had not, but I think it is a sign that I don't have endurance, and I don't have high end. All that was confirmed on Saturday, when twelve of us went out on a beautiful winter day. Sunny, dry, a light breeze, and temperatures just above freezing. The first half was with a tailwind, to the town of Woerden, but from there it was into this chilly wind to get home. Having just taken a pull on the curvy little road along the Meije river I let myself drift to the back of the group when a strong guy got to the front and gaps started to open up ahead of me. So I tried to bridge up, but stranded at about 30 meters from the little group that, without really aiming to do so, had separated itself from the rest. In the summer, you just buckle down and sprint across the gap, before it becomes a real separation. This past weekend, I really wanted to do this but just did have it in me. Maybe the pull I had just taken had something to do with it, but I don't think there's a sprint in me right now regardless. I'm still speedskating, and this does impact what you can do on the bike (the infamous "skating legs" that prevent you from spinning easily--or pushing significant gears), but the legs actually moved pretty well the first hour on Saturday. January legs, in other words. The only good thing about them is that if you have them in January, there's still plenty of time to improve. I'm riding to work tomorrow.

Historian on TV

2011-01-28T03:50:00.001-08:00

That would be me. Not really tv, just a clip on the web from last Tuesday's History orientation for high school students. We run a class and discussion the way we would for our own students, so that prospective students can get an idea of what it would be like to study with us. I did my current research topic--the Dutch role in NATO's 1979 Dual-track decision on intermediate nuclear weapons--also because it provided an opportunity to draw parallels (and identify differences) with today's debate over a new Dutch mission to Afghanistan (more about that soon). It's all in Dutch, but you can just feel the excitement.

Obama and America at the Crossroads

2011-01-21T03:01:00.000-08:00

This may be the common subject of recent pieces--in very different venues--by my colleague Artemy Kalinovsky and me. In an original, and somewhat ominous, discussion for the Foreign Affairs website, Artemy compares Obama, not to one of his U.S. predecessors, but to the last Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev. It's an interesting piece and you should read it yourself. The ominous part is where Obama's political style looks similar to that of Gorbachev, that is, usually trying to find a middle way, looking to reconcile opposing positions. Sticking with what historians now also call this indecisiveness cost Gorbachev support, and ultimately it played a big part in his undoing. Artemy believes that Obama can still avoid this fate, arguing the president should probably make some choices soon. In a short piece for the Leeuwarder Courant last Saturday (it's not on the website) I asked if the political debate was likely to become more civil and perhaps lead to a more productive policy process in Washington as a result of the Arizona shooting. I wrote it prior to the president's speech (go here for a lively exchange I had with a friend who, unlike me, does not believe it was beneficial), but I don't think that speech changed (could have changed) the main reasons why the debate is likely to remain deeply ideological and therefore an obstacle to pragmatic politics. Relative U.S. decline is one of these reasons. It is manifested for example in unemployment, national debt, and budget figures, it is real, and it's unprecedented in U.S. history. It's also profoundly un-American in the sense that throughout their existence Americans have become used to--indeed, have seen their national identity defined by--growing opportunity. There were usually enough concrete examples to keep alive the national myths of individual and national opportunity and growth, in spite of eras like the Great Depression, in spite of many stories of personal failure. But in the last couple of years, something seems to have changed. Anxieties about the rise of China is only one, although an important, example of how many Americans seem to understand this. Herein lies a source for the anger, because the change is profoundly unsettling to many Americans. Worries about finding, or holding on to, work are connected to the unsettling realization that things may never be what they used to be. This is more about (national) psychology than about what are still very real day-to-day economic realities. I don't think this relative decline of U.S. financial, economic, and political power in the world is irreversible, but it's real nonetheless and it will go on for a while. At the very least, the country will have to continue a long adjustment after long years of excess, of living beyond its means collectively and often individually. Think of what it's going to take in real pain for real people to get state budgets in order, of the kinds of adjustments envisioned to regain control of the federal government's finances. Depending on where they stand politically, Americans are going to argue passionately over that (they're already doing that), but what will add to the fire is the underlying fear that the old myths no longer hold, that something fundamentally has changed and that someone--the other side--is to blame for this. Much of America's relative decline is indeed the result of its own actions. Most are complicit, either because they actively and consciously acted in ways they knew were not sustainable (ways, at least, not in the general interest), or through willful ignorance. But few are willing yet to acknowledge they may have played a part. The good news is that because the problems are mostly of America's (and Americans') own making, they can also be addressed by things Americans do individually and through their common institutions. The bad news, and the reason why Americans will likely continue to vilify each other, is that until enough people take responsibility, the problems will continue to grow. More people seem to be taking a more pragmatic, and humble, view, but I don't think we've reached a threshold yet. Meanwhile, the presidential primary season is just around the corner. Leadership can make a difference in all this. For all his alleged faults, I think that the kind of vision for the nation's politics that the president has put forward is an excellent place to start. We shall see if in the upcoming State of the Union he will be equally compelling on policy. But leadership can only get you so far. Ultimately Americans themselves (Goldman Sachs very much included) will have take responsibility to stop the bleeding and to infuse the old American myths with new meaning.

Peter Post, R.I.P.

2011-01-15T08:35:00.000-08:00

One of the great in post-World War II cycling, Peter Post of Amsterdam, died yesterday at the age of 77. Most people may remember him as the creator and leader of the innovative and dominant TI-Raleigh and Panasonic teams of the 1970s, '80s, and '90s, but he was a very good cyclist during a sixteen-year (1956-1972) career on the road and, especially, the track. Thanks to an enormous desire always to win--and a big, powerful physique--he was victorious in no fewer than 65 Six-Day track events. He probably would have won more had a crash in 1972 not put an abrupt end to his career. On the road, his biggest win came in 1964, when he won Paris-Roubaix, averaging 45.129 k/h, which is still the record. (In comparison, last year's winner Fabian Cancellara averaged 39.2 k/h). I mostly followed Post in his capacity of TI-Raleigh team director. (Although I was also excited when, for my 9th or 10th birthday party in 1969 or '70, my dad took my friends and me to the bowling alley Post owned for a while in the Amsterdam suburb of Amstelveen. I remember looking for Post, but have no memory if he was actually there during our visit.) Built around classics specialist Jan Raas, classics threat and time-trialist Gerrie Knetemann, and a cast of supporters capable of winning big races themselves, the team seemed to win at will in the late 1970s and early 1980s. One obituary today claims a total of 1000 victories for the team from 1974 to 1983. Occasionally, they'd also have strong contenders for victories in major stage races, as in 1980 when Joop Zoetemelk (five times runner-up before joining Post's squad) won the Tour de France. In that Tour, the team won no fewer than eleven stages. For years, Post's teams were virtually unbeatable in team time trials, and it was there the "Post formula" was perhaps the most in evidence. Not only was Post a real taskmaster, more than anyone at the time or before he was a team builder, warning riders that their individual interests were subordinate to those of the team (and the sponsor), that the goal for the team always was to win, and that there was nobody, no other team, that could--had a right to--consider themselves equals. This made him an innovator and it has become a central part of his legacy. No small part of the Post formula was about attitude. Riders also had to look good, on the bike and off, because that too was part of being a representative of the team and its sponsors. Post himself always dressed very well--not that he needed it to be noted or respected (his calm but compelling personality took care of that), but it nonetheless became part of his aura. Riders might complain at times about his hard hand, but usually you'd hear how well everything was organized, how well riders were supported if they did their part, the formula so obviously working. The rider who arguably was his most successful, Raas, also gave him the most problems, eventually in 1983 leaving the team to start his own, taking half of Post's riders with him. The two men probably were too much alike, and two of these strong personalities in one team proved to be unsustainable in the long run. Post had a very good second run with his new sponsor, Panasonic, this time primarily with non-Dutch aces such as Eddy Plankaert, Eric Vanderaerden, Phil Anderson, and Viacheslav Ekimov. During the early 1990s he himself began to indicate that professional cycling was developing beyond what his formula would accommodate. At least, I remember a comment about riders' tendency (pioneered by Francesco Moser) to work closely with doctors in a scientific approach to training and racing. Post was skeptical, if not dismissive, and pulled out his much quoted admonishment: riders should "just go" ("rije!"). Don't sit on a trainer with a tube attached to your mouth and sensors taped to your chest, just go out early (Post sometimes would call his riders at 8:30 in the morning to see if they were still at home, instead of out training) and log five, six, or seven hours among the elements. Whether he knew the new medical/scientific era was one in which things like EPO played such a big role (he most probably did--in 1965 he had quite openly declared that he could not do all the racing he did if he didn't take a little doping every now and then; probably amfetamines), by the mid-'90s it had become time to retire. I'll always cherish the memories of the TI-Raleigh years, when the victories just kept on coming, and as a rider I continue to draw motivation from that essential admonition: just cut the bs and go, "rije!"

Afghanistan, again

2011-01-10T13:42:00.001-08:00

Have to resume, even if it's hastily. Afghanistan is what it is: we, the West, are there, it's important, and it's not entirely hopeless (at least, that's one way in which one could read Ahmed Rashid's recent article in the New York Review of Books). But we're there, have been there for years, and thereby have made it our problem, if it wasn't that before. Problem is, the public in the West is less and less committed, less and less interested. The new Dutch government last week announced its intention to send 300-some police trainers to the Northern part of the country, supported by several hundred military, as protection. In doing so, it took up an idea, expressed in a proposal passed by parliament last spring, by the Green party and the centrist D'66. These two parties are now on the spot, because due to the rejectionist stance by the Geert Wilders party, the PVV, the two governing parties (Christian Democrats--CDA, and conservatives--VVD) do not have a majority in parliament. The PVV has agreed to support the government, but without joining it, thereby keeping its hands free. The opposition Social Democrats (PvdA), who last winter brought down the old government over the question of a possible extension of the Dutch military mission in Afghanistan's Uruzgan province, have already found a reason to keep looking away from the uncomfortable reality of our, the West's, long-standing involvement, our interests, and our responsibility toward the region, and have stated they will not support this new mission. Politically, it's very safe, because a new opinion poll shows that more than 70% of the Dutch electorate is against the new mission too, and parties (PVV, PvdA, and the Socialists--SP) that oppose it are making gains among the voters. So the easy and politically expedient position would be to say no. There are forces in the Green party (a merger of, among others, the old pacifist socialists and the communists) arguing against last spring's initiative by its parliamentarians, and all opponents have an easy time pointing to the difficulties and the long odds, because there are many. But that's not really the point. The point is that "Afghanistan," of "AfPak," is there, and that we're part of it. Have been, at a great cost to ourselves and others. We can't just throw up our hands and walk away (the implied alternative of the rejectionists), and as much as many among the public apparently would like, we can't just look away. We can't stay forever either, and we can't "fix" it. But there's a strategy to make it a little better (see the Rashid piece, which is all about a feasible exit-strategy) and it deserves a chance. Will the Greens and D'66 come through? It is a tough call, and it would be unpopular. But for the reasons stated here, and others, it would be the right thing to do.

Back on the Roadbike

2010-12-11T13:48:00.000-08:00

Everything changes when you don't ride. The past two weeks, I couldn't, mostly because of cold, icy, or snowy conditions. Every morning I found myself getting into the car, driving to the train, and then walking the last half mile to the office. I brought fewer sandwiches for lunch, had to remind myself to eat less at dinner (not always successfully), and gradually also started to feel strange things in my legs and back. Stuff not being used. Psychologically, I wasn't in such bad shape, because I always knew that not riding was the sensible thing to do. On most days, it wasn't even a question. On some others I would still conclude that the possible consequences of going down in the dark on some black ice just were too ominous. It has happened to me before, after all. As a more recent reminder, a fellow commuter here in town, a committed rider if there ever was one (I've written about her before) went down on some wet leaves earlier this fall, breaking her shoulder in three places. Surgery isn't an option, and neither is a cast, but meanwhile the pieces still need to grow back together, my friend needs to put up with a lot of pain, all the while wondering if she'll ever regain full use of that important body part. So I drove, and I read on the train, and I walked more stairs in my building than normally, and I put up with the crowds on the trains, and I dutifully cleaned the car off in the morning, and then again at night. Thankfully, there were the speedskating sessions on Monday mornings, and last Sunday I managed a little more than an hour on my old mountain bike, partly on slushy trails, partly on mostly clean roads and bikepaths. The past two days, thaw really took over and so this morning I happily did the 21 mile Abcoude, or hooky, loop on the Klein. Looks like I'll add some more miles to the annual total tomorrow. Just three more weeks to go to pad that very important number.

Buy a Newspaper

2010-11-26T07:08:00.000-08:00

There was a letter, earlier this month, from the leadership of the Dutch GDP news syndicate, the organization I have served since 2001 as a regular op-ed contributor. The relationship will have to come to an end due to a reorganization of the group's work. In plain language this means that money problems have made me and other outside contributors unaffordable for the syndicate and its member papers. Not only that, at the main office jobs will have to be shed also, for example by having certain staff members over 60 take early retirement. It's unfortunate for me, because I really enjoy doing these op-eds and I think they're good for me as a contemporary historian, but the news is worse for what it says about the state of the news business. I haven't looked at numbers recently, but the problem is that fewer and fewer people choose to pay for the news they consume. While the internet makes it easy (overwhelming may be a better term) to gather news for free, I think declining subscriber figures show that not enough people think hard enough about how serious, reliable reporting emerges. Not enough people seem to realize that a professional news organization, employing knowledgeable and experienced reporters, costs more money than advertising provides. What's needed, therefore, is for more people to find a way to pay for at least part of the news they consume on a daily basis. There's nothing wrong with getting most of your information on-line, as long as you also take out a subscription from a news organization (or maybe two) or donate something from time to time. Without solid, professional reporting lots of information and, especially, opinions will continue to clutter the internet. That is not the same as having a reliable, independent press, even though it may look like it. Traditional news organizations, such as newspapers, will, of course, have to adapt to a changing media landscape. No matter how you look at it, however, we're going to need professional journalists (people doing this full-time, as a career) to get us the facts, to ask the tough questions, to put specific information in its proper context and in its proper relationship to other developments. Those people, and their organizations, will need to get paid, and they will need to get paid in part directly by us, the consumers of their work. If you believe in open societies, in a free press, ask yourself what it takes really to have all this; then ask yourself if you're doing enough to make it happen. Buy a newspaper.

On Stage

2010-11-18T13:27:00.000-08:00

Twice this week. First on a panel entitled "Russia and its Neighbors," the next night on Obama's foreign policy after the mid-terms. It was fun, and it all prepared me for a phone call this afternoon from a newspaper on the START treaty and where it's headed in the U.S. Senate, why, and why it matters. On the Russia panel I talked about how things had progressively deteriorated between the U.S. and Russia since the end of the Cold War but how the "reset" actually has been getting off the ground a little in the past year. I did not forget to warn of the strategic and ideological limits to the further development of the relationship characterized right now by a fair amount of pragmatism on both sides. On the U.S. panel the next night, having been asked to focus on the "war" part of current U.S. foreign policy, I argued that continuity dominates in Obama's campaign against Al Qaida and similar groups, including the legal issues surrounding the prisoners at Guantanamo and elsewhere. It's easier to promise change as a candidate than to deliver it as commander-in-chief with the buck stopping on your desk. Anything that works in Obama's foreign policy, one questioner wanted to know? Well, there's the "reset." Then, the same day, the junior Senator from Arizona indicated the Republicans may want to deny the president this success also. Voting to ratify the new START treaty, one of the tangible positive results of the "reset" so far, might not be opportune for the lame-duck Congress, he said. Of course, with more Republicans in the new Senate next year, it's going to be even tougher. Most Republicans seem to be fighting tooth and nail against the notion--it looms pretty large these days--that today's U.S. is not your 1990s hyperpower anymore. Cutting the Pentagon's budget? Well, that would just be confirmation of a U.S. in decline, and so we can't have that; instead we need to increase the defense budget beyond what the Pentagon itself asks for. But don't ask us how to pay for it! START would be sensible policy even for a hegemonic U.S.. It does, of course, involve cutting the nuclear arsenal. This is unacceptable for a Republican right terribly anxious about possibly no longer being the undisputed number one in the world. But the president is not giving up yet. In an op-ed after the mid-terms (in Dutch) I said that given the difficult situation of the country, there are ample reasons for everyone in Washington to look for ways to collaborate. There's lots of human and material potential being wasted (not to mention time). START ratification would be a good place to, eh, start, but I would not put a lot of money on it.

Multiple Layers of Self-Reliance

2010-11-07T09:23:00.000-08:00

Apologies, this is another cycling-related post. Cycling, of course, would be one way in which one could enhance one's self-reliance once energy supplies start to run low and driving, or public transportation, becomes either prohibitively expensive, unreliable, or both. Cycling is already a good strategy to get to work for me now, because I don't have to worry about traffic jams or train delays, of which there are plenty in the Amsterdam region. But this is a post about a small thing that happened to me today, not about the long- or medium term sustainability of Western ways of living. I had a flat, riding by myself this morning. That's not supposed to happen, because I make sure always to run the excellent Continental Gatorskin tires. In Holland, you can't get these (only the sew-up version, which incidentally I also use when I ride the nice wheels on the nice bike), but from the U.K. you can, and after confirming he really could not get them for me, my local bike shop gave me permission to order them there. But certain sharp, pointy things can penetrate even the toughest tires, and this morning I picked up, on a section covered with fallen leaves, a thin, sharp piece of metal in the very low reaches of the sidewall. So my first layer of self-reliance (use reliable stuff and keep it in working order) failed. My second did too: when I pulled out my spare tube, it turned out to have not one, but two holes in it. When I put it in my saddle bag months ago, I must have confused it with a good one. Fortunately, I also always bring patches and glue, and they bailed me out and got me home. Another way to get out of these situations (and I was running out of options this morning) should be with the help of fellow cyclists. However, as I stood there messing with my stuff--the bike on the ground, the wheel in my hands--I was passed at least twice by other road cyclists, each time without as much as a sound. In case they're reading along: the proper etiquette, gentlemen, is to ask if your unfortunate fellow cyclist needs any help: a pump, a tube, anything. You don't even have to stop to ask. But at least ask the question as you ride by. I've noticed that Dutch cyclists do this less than American ones. It may be for the same reason people over here are less friendly to strangers than Americans. (What those reasons might be we'll save for another post). Somebody eventually did stop to help, however. Just as I was trying to get the rear wheel back in the unhandy vertical drop-outs on my Klein, a Wegenwacht van pulled up (of the ANWB, the Dutch AAA), and the driver immediately started to get his hands as filthy as mine, trying to finish the job. Not only that, he gave me a rag to clean my hands, then took me to the back of his van where he keeps a soap dispenser, and when it was time to rise our hands, there also was a little faucet in the lower right-hand corner of the rear bumper dispensing not just water, but warm water. Needless to say perhaps, he also had a clean towel to top it all off. All this, fellow cyclists could not have provided. But it would have been nice if one of those guys riding by had shown a little interest. As Red Green says, after all: we're all in this together. And in case this concept is entirely new to you, gentlemen, also consider the words of Red's man's prayer.

Use Those Flashers

2010-11-03T07:13:00.001-07:00

The Wall Street Journal writes about how difficult it is to get Dutch cyclists to wear helmets, but I'm writing about the cavalier way many of them go out without lights after dark. We went off daylight savings time last weekend, so this week I've started to ride home after dark. You really need your lights by 5:15 now, certainly on a cloudy day. And you're going to need them a lot: six months until spring! I use one headlight (or the other one), and two flashers attached to my seat stays. Most of the riding here is on bikepaths, but even there, and certainly on the little country roads (dikes) drivers often use as short-cuts, you are going to want to stand out like a Christmas tree. Recently, I've added a mount underneath my seat for an additional flasher. In spite of the fact that attaching it (and taking it off when parking the bike at work) adds yet another action to the long string of actions required to get ready for a cold season ride, I'm going to start using this third flasher too. There really is no such thing as overkill when it comes to this, especially if you also realize that if a flasher is positioned incorrectly, the effect can be reduced to almost zero. Also (this is what drivers surely know), one little flasher often barely makes a difference. You could be riding around feeling quite responsible, while in reality you're still a dark ghost that haunts the road. But that's people who care. It is the people who take this too lightly who need to start thinking (the way helmet-less folks need to turn on their brains): forget, for a moment, about the drivers you would be burdening with having hurt or killed a cyclist, forget also about general credibility of cyclists as participants in traffic; if there are people who care about you, people you care about, would you really want them to have to deal with the consequences of a possible tragedy? Bike-related tragedies happen every day, and many in hindsight turn out to have been preventable. The chances of something going wrong are relatively small, but when it does go wrong it can truly be tragic. And what's so hard about getting this right: spending a little bit of money for a few lights, spending a little bit of time to keep them charged, spending just a tiny bit of extra time to attach them to the bike? With these stakes? Gimme a break.

"The" Obama Effect

2010-10-30T12:53:00.000-07:00

That, without the quotation marks, was the name of the conference I participated in this past week. It was held at the Roosevelt Study Center in Middelburg (Dutch province of Zeeland). The purpose of the conference was to look at the past, present, and future of the transatlantic relationship and see if the election of Barack Obama has had an impact on this old but evolving alliance. The organizers had brought in three excellent keynote speakers. On the opening night, NATO head of policy planning, Jamie Shea, gave us a detailed and sophisticated view of the current state of West-West relations. One the one hand, the Obama administration has not awarded a very high priority to the old continent in its foreign policy. See for example the cancellation of Obama's attendance at an EU-U.S. summit earlier this year, or his absence last year from the anniversary ceremonies of the start of World War II in Europe or the fall of the Berlin Wall. On the other hand, his administration has done much to send reassuring messages to Europe's fringes, as in the anxieties in Eastern and Central Europe about Russia, European concerns about the Balkans, and the place of Turkey in Europe. Both sides in the partnership, Shea suggested, need to worry about their own sins of (mostly) omission that threaten the long-term health of the alliance. The U.S. needs to get its financial and economic house in order to stem the spreading sense that it is a great power in decline, less and less able to act effectively around the world. It also would help if U.S. politics was less divisive ("poison politics"). The Europeans, in turn, should think hard about the way they're falling further and further below agreed-upon NATO defense spending targets. Soft power doesn't count for anything in Washington, only hard power gets you credibility. Europe, Shea warned, needs to recognize that the decline of U.S. interest in Europe is real. It would also be nice if "Europe" managed to act a little more in unison in foreign policy, also, or especially, outside the transatlantic relationship. If a multi-polar world is the future, and multilateralism its essential tool, the EU could do a lot more in developing its own ties to rising powers such as India and China.

The second keynote speaker, Scott Lucas, of the University of Birmingham, provided an alternative vision, one he also promotes through his website, EAWorldView. To take one major argument from his talk: Europe should worry much less about whether its policies please Washington. The U.S. would be much better served with an independently acting Europe telling Washington what its interests are. The U.S., meanwhile, should break with its tradition of military interventionism, especially in its struggle against Islamic terror groups, because it is counter-productive. Perhaps the main phrase from Lucas' talk came at the beginning: we (the U.S.-led West) needs to recognize the power of the regional and the local. That is where solutions to large problems can be found, not in Western interventionist capabilities.

The third keynote speaker was Marcel Wissenburg, a political theorist at Nijmegen University, who drew on recent work to discuss the differences between European ("Eastern") and U.S. approaches to environmental issues, especially the failed attempts to get the U.S. to sign on to international climate agreements. It is all about "culture," broadly defined. Americans just won't go for the thing that works so well in the "East," namely international agreements setting clear targets that countries should meet through targeted, government-mandated regulation. Pointing to the success of Governor Schwarzenegger in California and the 2007 Supreme Court ruling in Massachusetts v. EPA (authorizing the EPA to regulate greenhouse gas emissions), Wissenburg argued that the way forward for the U.S. is to go back to basic principles, such as "health" and move toward policy from there. By implication this would probably mean that there's no future for global climate agreements, but given also the attitude of for example China and India (not to mention Europe's own inability to meet agreed-upon targets) we already knew that.

So what is the Obama effect on transatlantic relations? Ties will be more business-like, and Europe will have to pull its own weight a good deal more, both in maintaining the relationship and in developing its own independent role. It would help if ordinary Europeans became a little less obsessed with their own lives and societies and developed a broader view of global affairs and what is required, also in military terms, to keep things from getting out of control. The U.S., meanwhile, should get a hold of itself, its politics, so that it gets back in a position from where it can take some sensible steps to repair the basis for its global power (which we still very much need). However much one might want to criticize the president, the burden to make that happen mostly rests with others; ultimately, it rests with the American people. It would help if more of them actively showed how the current hysteria does not represent them.

Catch-Up Posting

2010-10-14T04:37:00.001-07:00

There were a couple of moments the past two weeks when I had reason to post, but you do have to take the time, and I didn't (that's a better explanation than: "no time," because "no time" really means "no priority"). I really do believe I usually had better, or at least more pressing things to do. And I'm afraid that includes taking advantage of the very nice fall weather last Saturday for one more team ride in shorts and short sleeves (Portengensebrug, Harmelen, Montfoort, Oudewater, Haastrecht, Reeuwijk/Gouda, Bodegraven, Woerden, Kanis, Breukelen for a total of 67 miles).

But I did do an-op ed two weeks ago arguing that the Dutch parliament should consider sending police and military trainers to Afghanistan because we're entering a crucial phase of the struggle there, given President Obama's time table. There are other signs that things remain in flux and that Western interests are at stake: the terror plot responsible for the increased number of U.S. drone attacks in the border area with Pakistan; discussions between certain Taliban and the Karzai government; military stalemate. I went out on a limb and said that the situation is not hopeless, and that in any case muddling through is preferable to total chaos there. Of course, one of the big ifs for a turn for the better in the region--Pakistan's cooperation in this campaign--has appeared even more problematic since I submitted my piece, thanks to Lahore's closure of the Khyber Pass supply route and the subsequent attacks on Western convoys. A classic case of a weak but indispensable ally having plenty of options not only to squeeze lots of money out of you, but also of jerking you around at will. Still, if the Dutch care about their own security, about continuing the good work they've done in Afghanistan since 2006, and about a successful Obama presidency, they should send the trainers. It is true that Western military presence, "occupation," is a prime motivator for extremists, but now that we're there, it matters how we leave. This summer, the Dutch left Afghanistan in a lousy way; the least they can do is try to pitch in during what promises to be a crucial stage of the Afghanistan saga.

Then there was news to report on the "weird cycling contraptions" front. Last time, I reported on being passed by a regular-looking guy in street clothes on a hybrid kind-of bike, making me look like a big slouch (even though I was riding to work at probably 18-19 m/h on my old Trek, wearing an old team kit, and carrying a back-pack). Had to be an electric bike. I resolved next time to jump on the wheel, even though it would look funny. Well, this week I've had two opportunities. Leaving Amsterdam last Monday there was somebody behind me who, out on the open road by the Amsterdam Rijnkanaal actually came around. Hybrid bike, one saddle bag, backpack, but also dressed in cycling clothes he just went a little too fast given his appearance. Again, a very strong rider (would probably have to be some kind of racer) could move a bike like that at that speed, but they're few and far between, and if they were that kind of rider, they would not be riding to work like that. Of course, the moment he passed me I could see his battery back hanging off the seat tube. He turned out to be going my way for almost ten miles, and for most of that distance I had nice, quiet, and clean pacemaker at a speed somewhere in the low 20s. Just before we went our separate ways I pulled up alongside and asked if he had indeed some electrical assistance. He did. Keeping up wasn't difficult at all, but in Muiden, crossing the big bridge in the center, he ran the light, while I stopped and pressed the button to get the green. Green came quickly, but meanwhile he'd gotten about a 100m gap. It did take some effort to close that again, and it must have looked weird: this "real"cyclist digging deep to get on the wheel of this upright hybrid rider. Yesterday morning I had to make a similar effort to get on the wheel of what may well have been the same guy as the one who prompted my post two weeks ago. The sight of us riding together must have been even weirder. On the way in, riding the nice wide and empty two mile stretch of asphalt near IJburg (visible here toward the left, alongside the green part) suddenly he blew by me again: hybrid bike, street clothes, upright position. It took me a second or two to make up my mind, but then I decided to take a closer look. This was hard, as by then he'd taken a 50m lead. But I got on the wheel, and before the Nescio bridge, my turn off, I was also able to confirm that his bike was a Trek. I didn't get to talk to this guy, but I'm convinced that he too had his electrical device turned on, in part because there was the same, very slight whirring sound you don't hear on regular bikes. But even more important was that this picture really didn't fit. Cyclists looking this way just don't go at these speeds. There's an artist--I'll get the name and a link when I get home tonight--who has these human figures that quickly make you do a double-take because something isn't right. On closer inspection you see that one of several body parts are just a little too big, or small. Watching these guys on their electric bikes come by is a similarly disorienting experience. However, once you're on their wheel, they provide very nice drafting opportunities.

The Proliferation of Weird Cycling Contraptions

2010-09-22T07:10:00.000-07:00

A weird experience this morning, riding out of the town of Muiden on my way to work. It was a beautiful morning with virtually no wind, some very light fog here and there, and temperatures that were already very mild. I was moving along just fine in a short sleeve jersey and a vest. Shorts, obviously. I never go hard in the morning; it just doesn't feel right, shortly after getting out of bed and with the whole work day still ahead of you. Still, I think I was doing 18-19 m/h, happily spinning a 39x16 gear when some guy riding a kind of hybrid bike blew by me at maybe 25 m/h. It was the weirdest thing: he was wearing street clothes, sitting pretty straight up, and you could see that his tires weren't the skinniest around. He was pushing, but the elements in the picture just did not fit together. I mean, there are probably people (guys my age or older, like this guy) who could come up with the kind of power to move a bike like that at this speed, but they're very few and far between, and they probably would not be riding to work that way in street clothes. The ensemble did make a considerable amount of noise, which I first attributed to the fat tires. But then I thought: Cancellara!, as in: electric motor! (Sorry man!) And after a brief Google image search I think I've figured out what we had there, this morning. It's the Trek Ride +, or something like it. First I had to get used to these cigar-type vehicles people here use to "ride" to work, and now this. At least in the case of the electric bike you can choose to draft off it, the way you would with a moped or scooter. Come to think of it, it's really good for that because there are no fumes. It will look weird, but just in case he passes me again on the way home, I think I'll jump on his wheel.

Others on Other American Scares and Today

2010-09-20T08:22:00.001-07:00

I'm far from the only one who has been reminded of other American scares amid the anti-Muslim and anti-immigrant furor these days. See, for example, George Packer at the New Yorker, who likens today's general public agitation to 1919-1920. The political debate does seem a little unhinged today, if you think about it. Focusing on the intersection of isolationism and war, Peter Beinart sees similarities with both 20th century Red Scares--and there's something to that also. Juan Cole, meanwhile, emphasizes the nativist angle and goes back even futher in U.S. history. Before I get more angry e-mails from people I don't know: I don't necessarily agree with all of these analyses and believe even less that these analogies prove that the U.S. is a rotten country--not free, not essentially tolerant. Least of all do I hate America. I don't have a passport, but put me with those American patriots anyway who get worked up during these "scares" because to them the behavior and ideas on display actually subvert important American ideals. But I'm a historian and happen to believe (call me crazy) that it's helpful to have a historical perspective on things. It can help you see similarities (today's developments as part of larger themes or trends throughout U.S. history) as well as differences. When I teach my "American Scares" seminar again, you can sign up and we'll take a close up look.

Playing with Fire

2010-09-08T02:47:00.000-07:00

I just saw another version of my op-ed on the current anti-Muslim scare in the United States. It's in de Gelderlander (in Dutch), and there's one reader comment arguing that this is actually driven by the "authorities" to justify further military involvement in the Middle East and Central Asia. That I don't believe. Not even the Bush administration believed there was anything to be gained by stigmatizing an entire group (Muslims) exactly at a time when it is of vital importance to convince members of the same group all over the world that your policies are aimed at small groups of extremists and that the last thing you or anybody else needs is a global religious war. Of course U.S. policy has displayed plenty of screw-ups (and worse: "Abu Ghraib," "Guantanamo"), and of course the Bush administration cynically employed "9/11" to maintain support for its foreign and domestic policies. But that's still very different from deliberately implicating all Muslims, everywhere, in the crimes of a fanactic minority. The current scare is not spontaneous--specific individuals in the U.S. and elsewhere speak with reckless irresponsibility about Muslims, often unhindered by any real knowledge or direct experience. (I do agree with the commenter that the media often seem all too happy to repeat or abet a lot of the garbage being uttered). But, as witness yesterday's comments by Attorney-General Holder and Secretary of State Clinton, and earlier warnings by General Petraeus, the U.S. government understands full well how we're playing with fire here. To repeat: this intolerance is not just profoundly un-American (this would be bad enough), it can also fatally undermine the efforts by the U.S. and others to build some common ground between the West and the Muslim world. As anger about illegal immigration and Latino immigrants also shows (even though the numbers are actually down), these are anxious times. Absolutely no need to fan the flames. But Western societies have their share of fanatics too, not to mention cynically opportunistic politicians and "opinion leaders."

Fast Women, Beautiful Roads, and Pastry

2010-09-06T12:24:00.000-07:00

In Los Alamos in the mid-1990s there was Jennifer, who had no trouble riding with us boys, and whom I could only drop on the climb to the Valle Grande, out of the back gate. On the flats, she'd be more likely to kick my behind. She wasn't around all the time, because she raced most of the national races with the top women in the U.S., for example the week-long Cascade Classic stage race. In Milwaukee, there was Patti, a two-time national champion, who had also raced the Cascade Classic and who on the flat training rides gave as good as she got (while many others were happy just to be passengers) and who always got better as the rides got longer. She, too, would fall behind on the climbs, but both are good examples of lone women holding their own in groups full of guys. The fact that in more than 20 years of group rides, I can only remember a handful of these women also shows how rare they still are. Then two weeks ago, on the Cote de la Redoute, there was the Flemish girl, and last week there was Erica from Valgatara, Valpolicella, the town with the killer gelato. I had trouble keeping up with the former, and over in the Lake Garda area it was no different with the latter. It's not a real surprise, as Erica's time (last May, with snow coming down) on Mt. Ventoux is almost five minutes faster than mine. She has also finished first in several Granfondo races. I got to ride with Erica thanks to an invitation from my friend Michele, who had gotten to know her on the Ventoux expedition and whose riding has taken flight since he started training with her. Last Tuesday we all met near Fumane, outside of Verona. We climbed to Molina, then on to Breonio. The climb to Molina is a good one: pretty challenging, though not too long. Erica fell a little behind, but I don't think she was really trying. That was the thing on every climb: she just rode up, riding smoothly and light-footed, and she wasn't pushing the smallest gears around. The rest of the ride was a friendly up-and-down, eventually back to Valgatara, but you could not help wondering what it would be like to hang on to her wheel on a long, tough climb when the chips are down. It would be relentless, and it would be painful. The trip to Verona-Lake Garda area was a final chance for a few days of scenic, summer riding, and I think I made the most of it. At the end of the ride with Erica, Michele made me ride home to our perch overlooking the lake while he took the car back, which meant doing the Caprino-Lumini climb with 60 miles of up-and-down in my legs in temperatures not seen in Holland in a while. So that first day was a good opening day. The next day, it was just Michele and I, but only to the little town of Spiazzi. We did a good climb on a little back road through Porcino, but then I was on my own, Michele saving himself for the next day. I rode on, behind the tall ridge overlooking Lake Garda, to Cavallo di Novezza, and eventually to the foot of Monte Altissimo. There was enough climbing on that section, including a mile at 19% coming right after a few kilometers of something around 10%. Then there was a long downhill (ten miles or so), all the way to Avio, which is on the Brenner highway. I paralleled that back to Caprino, for a reunion with the climb to Lumini. 65 miles (more or less this route, clock-wise) and it felt like work. Day three saw us reunited with Erica at the ferry across Lake Garda to start our ride of the three lakes: Lago di Valvestino, Lago d'Idro, and Lago di Ledro. Getting off the ferry, we first stopped for cappucchino and cake, then rode a whole bunch of gorgeous roads, to get back to Lake Garda at its northern tip at Riva di Garda (except for that steep downhill on a gravel trail, bypassing the main road into town--an Oscar Swan ghost road if there ever was one. With her mountainbike background, Erica quickly left us far behind there). The last hour, to show that I really live in flat, windy Holland, I dragged the three of us back in one 35k-long pull along the lake to Torri del Benaco. Because I am from Holland and don't get to climb much, I also got to do the 10k climb home to San Zeno by way of Albisano, while the other two got in the car. The long pull had taken it out of me, so even though I was just five miles from getting a century, I was happy to make the turn into the driveway. Happiness remained, also for Michele, to make us choose a 25k coffee ride for the final day: down the hill to Caprino, a three-pastry stop (hazelnut; rice pudding, whipped cream), then back home over the old Caprino-Lumini climb. Perfect, as with everything on this far too short outing.

A New American Scare

2010-09-04T12:52:00.001-07:00

That, unfortunately, is the thesis of an op-ed I did last week on what to me appears a sudden escalation in anti-Muslim rhetoric and activity in the United States. You can read a version (in Dutch) over on the website of the Nederlands Dagblad. An inaccuracy or two has slipped through the cracks (for example a mention of the CIA as an institution instrumental in fueling earlier "scares"--I meant the Supreme Court, as in its sanctioning of Japanese-American internment during World War II), but they're minor. In the article I argue that the current anti-Muslim campaign resembles the Red Scares of the 20th century, and also the one driving Japanese-American internment 1942-1945, in that in a tough situation, where the country has suffered set-backs in its relationship with the outside world, certain forces (Justice Department, FBI, certain politicians, media organizations) cause many people to hold a certain group as either responsible for the problem, dangerous, or both. The result is a combination of official action (deportation of anarchist Russian immigrants; locking up citizens of Japanese descent) and free-lancing by individual Americans (anti-mosque activities today). For a long time after 9/11, Americans resisted the temptation to blame any Muslim, anywhere for the actions of a fanatic few. At least, at home they did. Overseas, Abu Ghraib and "Guantanamo" made for a much more complicated picture. But now at home things seem to be getting out of hand too. Earlier "scares" eventually passed, but not without severe damage to individual lives and the thing America really ought to be about, namely living up to its own best ideals. Is this a full-blow witch hunt yet? Maybe not. But it's headed that way, in part because a lot of influential individuals and organizations are acting more than a little irresponsibly. The "Ground Zero Mosque" is more a catalyst than the actual issue. Given the impact of 9/11 and other terrorist acts, we've been in a precarious situation for a while now. Add to that the crisis, and you end up with a lot of people, as there are today, that believe the country is on the wrong track. In such times, it doesn't take too much for things to turn ugly. The planned Islamic cultural center downtown Manhattan is clearly a sensitive issue for many. Even more reason for media organizations and prominent politicians to discuss it rationally and dispassionately. But that seems to be the opposite of what we're seeing right now.

90 Miles and Feeling a Little Old

2010-08-23T13:02:00.001-07:00

I have things to say, and ask, about the latest American scare (the "Ground Zero Mosque"), but let me first report on last Saturday, when I did 90 challenging miles in the Ardennes as part of the "Geants des Ardennes". That's geant as in: giant. With four of my Eendracht friends I did the 143K route, which included 15 named climbs. It was my first day in the Eendracht kit (approved, upon my return, by the home front), as it was my first time with the new team in hilly terrain. The last time I had done this kind of distance was in 2007 (the year of my last century), when I'd often get rides over 70 miles long, do hard training rides on a weekly basis, and actually race. Most of that has gone by the wayside, and I think it showed last weekend. It was a warm day, weather I used to thrive in. But two-thirds of the way in cramps started bothering me. I was able to get rid of them by getting out of the saddle (hamstring) or staying seated (quadriceps), and considered myself lucky that front and back never acted up simultaneously. It wasn't horrible, far from it, but after the half-way mark I basically found myself just riding trying to finish this thing comfortably. In the old days, when I was much further from that dreaded milestone birthday than today, I'd get better as these kind of days went on and would only allow people to pass me (especially on the climbs) if they looked like semi-pros. On the last climb Saturday, there were several people riding away from me, and I was just fine with that. How bad was it? Not very, really. I held my own just fine against my new teammates, and then some, and was having a hard time on only three of the fifteen climbs, but there it was the same for just about everybody. We're talking here about the Cote de Somagne (new to me), the Wanneranval (I had been on this hill, but not from this side), and the Cote La Roche aux Faulcons, the very last one (these days also part of Liege-Bastogne-Liege). They were hard work, at least on the 39x26 they were, but at the same time I never wished I had brought a 28. On the other twelve, I just had a blast riding uphill again for a change. I should also mention this young Flemish woman, dressed all in white, who easily held her own with us on the Cote de la Redoute-Est. She actually rode away from me (passing everyone else around) when I had a cramp setting in. Not that no woman should be able to hang with me on a tough climb, it's just that I've rarely had the experience. I caught up with her at the top, and we rode into Sprimont together. It gave me time to realize that she was easily young enough to be my daughter. I told you this post was about me feeling a little old.

Cold War Research and Cycling

2010-08-15T11:47:00.000-07:00

The two can go together. Three examples. When I did research for my dissertation, in Berlin in 1996, I rode a rented bike to the archive in Lichterfelde, first from Kreuzberg, where I was staying with friends, later from Spandau. The latter rides were near epic: January in Berlin, and I was on the road around 7:30, riding part of the way through the woods, getting some breakfast 45 minutes in, at a bakery in Zehlendorf (where I'd also pick up some rolls for when I'd get my lunch-time pea soup at the Freie Universitaet, a ten minute ride from the archive). After lunch, you'd look out the window around 2:30 and see it beginning to get dark again. And so the ride "home" to Spandau (cheap room, though!) was also in the dark. In case you wonder, it certainly was cold on those rides. A few years later I worked on a project for which the material was at the U.S. National Archives at College Park, Md. That's only a stone's throw away from Greenbelt Park, where they have training races every Wednesday night. This, conveniently, is also the day the archive closes at five. So on those research trips (during the summer!) I'd drive over from Milwaukee (including stops in Pittsburgh on the way out and back to join PMVC on their weekend rides) with my bike in the trunk. Then, while in D.C., I'd drive over to Greenbelt Park once or twice during the week either to race or to do an hour of loops around the course by myself. The races were the best, of course, but after sitting on your butt the entire day working your way through box after box it wasn't exactly a chore to ride there all alone. The third example comes from last week, when we drove to Bonn so that I could do some work at the Archiv der sozialen Demokratie at the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung. We found a hotel at the foot of the Venusberg (it says "berg," but it's really just a good hill). On the map, there were two roads that looked like good vehicles for an hour to an hour-and-a-half of exercise after a day spent with the files: the Bergstrasse and the Annaberger Strasse. I did them both, and can report that in Pittsburgh, the former would be a candidate for both Danny Chew's Dirty Dozen and Oscar Swan's ever growing list of ghost roads (a pretty steep grade, enough to give my arms a real work-out on the 39x26 while the poor surface forced me to stay seated). The latter proved to be excellent for hill repeats. It is a beautiful road through the woods that is closed to regular car traffic, and it too is quite steep, especially the first part, steep enough for me to reach for my 24 there. The climb is just about a mile long, and if I did my best, I could do it within six minutes. You do that several times in a row, and you really can get a worthwhile workout in a little over one hour. I was going to write next about the interesting stuff I found in all these archives, but I just remember yet another example of Cold War research-related cycling: Abilene, Kansas. Yes sir! Actually, when I spent two weeks there at the Eisenhower Library in the early '90s (1992, I think, staying at the long since disappeared Forester Hotel for under $35.-- a week, across the tracks from the also sorely missed Texas Cafe), I did have to get in the car for the two excellent rides I remember doing there, but it was worth it. On the advice of a friend over in Lawrence, I drove over on a Saturday afternoon to the Tuttle Creek Lake area, the site of a recent state road championship. They were indeed good roads, but what I remember most is just staying clear of a huge charging St. Bernard dog early in my ride on Green Randolph Rd. near Olsburg. (If that section had been uphill, I don't know if I'd be writing this today). The other drive was in the opposite direction, south into the Flint Hills to Council Grove. I had picked this course myself, having once done a race from the Prairie Chicken Capital of the World (Cassoday, but you probably knew that) to this historic town. The road between there and Strong City/Cottonwood Falls may well be my favorite in all of Kansas, and it was no chore at all to do an out-and-back there. The follow-up research for last week's work may well have to take place at Germany's Bundesarchiv in Koblenz, not a bad place for post-research riding, either. I'll keep you posted.

Group Ride!

2010-08-06T02:29:00.000-07:00

My notes say that the last one was on June 20, which is far too long. There may be people who thrive, always riding by themselves. It is certainly good to have nothing but your own snout in the wind on a regular basis. But there is definitely a place for riding with others. Not surprisingly, I've had motivation problems the past six weeks (also because a planned riding adventure fell through). Same old flat loops near the home town week after week. Not that they're not pretty or that you can't do stuff on them, but one needs some stimulation, goals, and certainly camraderie beyond the love for the sport to keep things interesting and stay sharp. I do, at least. So last night I went looking for my sort-of Eendracht teammates (they've been nothing but nice since I joined two years ago, but I've had a hard time joining them on a regular basis) who do a pretty good ride every Thursday night at seven. There were only five of us (we found an additional rider half-way through our ride) and I ended up with 52 miles for the night, about 40 of which were with the group. In Holland, you have to negotiate traffic, traffic furniture, narrow bike paths and the like on every ride, but we found some stretches where we could ride a pace much better than any of us would have done on his own, and our average together was somewhere between 21 and 22 m/h. We even included two of what in this part of the world pass for little hills (Soester Engh; Soestduinen). Everyone was able to help at the front, and toward the end we were still motoring through a couple of towns at 24-25 m/h. Nothing dangerous, but you certainly had to pay attention, also because at this hour (going on 9 pm) the sun was hanging pretty low and there were times you could not see a whole lot up ahead (signs already of summer winding down). I got home at 9, a little late for the body to calm down in time for a normal night's sleep. The ride was well worth a slightly restless night, though.

Robert C. Tucker, R.I.P.

2010-08-03T03:22:00.000-07:00

The great Stalin scholar died last Thursday, the New York Times reports. His two volumes on the tyrant are masterpieces of research, analysis, and writing. Citations, for example in studies on the run-up to World War II, have not been as numerous recently as they should have been, probably because Tucker emphasizes Stalin's aggressive (reckless, he calls it) side over his nowadays more fashionable caution. The two Tucker volumes take the story up to 1941, and the Times obituary confirms what I had feared for a while now: there won't be a third. Apparently a combination of writers' bloc, declining health, and the great amount of new material that has come out since 1990 caused the project to get bogged down. Maybe George Kennan saw this coming when he wrote Tucker to congratulate him on the publication of the second book and added: you must now complete the final volume! (Don't have the book with the letter handy at the moment). I was rooting for him too, being a confirmed ally in the world of Stalin scholarship. That sounds presumtuous (and it is), but we met once at a conference (the big conference on Stalin and the Cold War at Yale in 1999), and at one point during a group conversation between sessions about Stalin's possible motives in Germany after World War II (the subject of the paper I had submitted for this event), he declared: "well, I'm with van Dijk on this." It was very nice to hear, but not really a surprise, because his work was, and continues to be, the greatest single influence on my interpretation of Stalin's worldview and its importance for policy. It's wonderful to have Tucker's books, but I'm sorry to have to give up on ever reading volume three.
Update: Kennan wrote his letter in August 1994 and printed it in At a Century's Ending: Reflections 1982-1995 (Norton, 1996), 238-244. It is a kind letter, but one in which Kennan does question the particular psychological explanation (self-hatred) Tucker employs to make sense of Stalin's behavior. I could try to summarize it all here, but it's much better if you read it yourself. Btw, in the Washington Post obituary, there is also a link to a 1996 appearance by Tucker on the Charlie Rose program on PBS.

What's the World Coming To?

2010-08-02T02:27:00.000-07:00

Just three examples from recent reading: Asia columnist, Banyan, in last week's Economist, as s/he was preparing for another assignment. Much economic development and improvement of people's lives across much of the region. Flip side: greenhouse gases produced by this coal-based growth. And: "[d]evelopment is laying waste to the region’s natural richness. The Chinese miracle is built on a raw, bulldozed landscape of unrelenting horror. In Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines, once-vast stands of virgin forest are gone. Laos and Myanmar (“Elephints a-pilin’ teak”) are now going the same way. Asia’s sushi fad bodes ill for the bluefin tuna even on the far side of the world." Also because of the piece's conclusion, "political stuntedness is now Asia's biggest problem," one really has to wonder who/what is going to do anything about this dark side of Asia's development. See also Jonathan Mirsky's review of Bill Hayton's Vietnam: The Rising Dragon, in the June 24 issue of the New York Review of Books. "The environment is a deepening disaster. The rivers surrounding Ho Chi Minh City are 'biologically dead,' and the air in Hanoi is poisonous ... Sewage and other waste in both cities are dumped raw into the rivers and landfills and eventually poison the local water supplies ... people unsuccessfully complained about such pollution for years." It then continues: "but now that the urban middle classes are up in arms about smells and tastes, action is slowly being taken." I'm no expert on the rise of environmental protection in the West, but the little I do know suggests that this, pressure from within society, played an important part. In Asia, then, it may in part be a matter of timing: will pressure from within society become significant enough soon enough for meaningful action to have a chance to turn things around? Not that it has worked so well in the West, for example the United States. Last week's Economist also had a nice piece about the thriving rail freight sector there. That freight railroads are doing well should be good news (better carry stuff on trains than on trucks, at least). Of course, "coal is the biggest single cargo," which also brings us to one of the main reasons climate-change legislation got moved off Washington's agenda recently: resistance from coal-producing states. More than enough reason, therefore, to start reading the blog of someone whose concerns about these developments are based on a deep knowledge not only of the politics but also the science behind them.

Leaving Afghanistan

2010-08-01T03:16:00.000-07:00

That's what the Netherlands is doing officially today, after a four year military presence in the province of Uruzgan that according to most observers has been fairly successful, on its own merits and compared to the work of other Western forces in the country. If you believe this is already a lost cause (and war), the withdrawal is of course very timely. However, even the Dutch Social-Democratic party, the PvdA, which brought down the government last winter during discussions over a possible extension of the Dutch role in Afghanistan, did not use this argument. Instead, it argued that it was time for someone else to step up, that the Dutch had done more than their fair share. Sincere or not, they were thanked by a Taliban spokesman (no need to use "spokesperson" here), who in a rare interview with de Volkskrant last week called the PvdA decision "one of the most important decisions ever made for the Dutch government and people." There are many angles to this issue, and it is of course possible that the Western effort to stabilize Afghanistan will ultimately prove to have been in vain. What continues to bother me, however, is that this course of events was not inevitable. The withdrawal we're witnessing today is one of choice, not necessity. There was no popular groundswell against the Afghanistan mission among the Dutch public, no pressure from the military to relieve the strain on its resources (on the contrary, one might say). The choice was to go it alone, for selfish, domestic political reasons, and alliance interests be damned. The Hague pulled the plug right at the time a new U.S. president (one we profess to like and support over here) had begun to implement his own Afghanistan strategy (as opposed to the one of his unpopular predecessor) and had asked allies for support. It is some consolation that as of right now, it doesn't appear likely that last week's Taliban spokesman will get his wish, namely "that the PvdA will play a leading role in a new Dutch government."

That Was One Long, Unexplained Hiatus

2010-07-29T07:12:00.000-07:00

The best explanation I can give is that in late May things just got a little too busy (grading, student meetings, thesis stuff, mostly) really to formulate coherent things to say. So no, the Froome Watch did not wear me out. Right around the time I stopped posting the Floyd Landis accusations came out, and that story continues to be covered by many (see, for example, Joe Papp's blog). As a historian, I'd be very interested in seeing the detailed diaries Landis reportedly has kept, but I guess Jeff Novitzky gets to read them first. As I watched him ride in this year's Tour de France, especially during the final week, I had to think that Armstrong may have relished those final hours in the peloton, knowing, as I'm sure he does, that with the Federal probe life after the cycling career is not going to be a lot of fun. Not at all the way he imagined it only a couple of months ago. (By the way, I think he rode more than a little courageously during that death march to Pau). What else was happening two months ago? There was a new U.S. National Security Strategy, which I discussed in an op-ed for the GPD papers here in the Netherlands, arguing that given the emphasis on national renewal as a basis for U.S. foreign policy, this document truly is a product of its time. This is not your Cold War U.S. of A. anymore, although in its aspirations, the Obama administration still bears a strong resemblance (for which we should be grateful). Obama was also trying to get his financial sector reforms through Congress, and I wrote about that in June. I compared the president to both Reagan and Roosevelt, reformers both who inherited a tough economic situation and whose stature as influential leaders only began to take hold later in their presidencies, in part because economically things began to pick up then. In spite of his legislative successes, Obama will probably have to wait for such an economic upswing. There is more to look back on, and there are issues in the news today (really!). Eventually, there may also be something worthy of note in my own riding. In fact, I'll start looking for that right after I click "publish post."

Froome Watch, P.S.

2010-05-29T11:15:00.000-07:00

Chris's tweet last night: "That was as far as these legs were willing to go this Giro... I won't say it was a pleasure but for sure one of a kind!!" And this morning "Woke up to some very entertaining messages this morning. Cheers guys :) For the real story check out teamsky.com." It had to be something, and it was knee trouble. He'll be back.

End of the Froome Watch

2010-05-28T13:25:00.000-07:00

And now I'm worried the lack of posts the past week has something to do with it. Chris did not finish today's monster stage in the Giro, so with just two more stages to go in this very tough go around, after having come all this way and dealt with so much weather, race, and terrain related mayhem, it's curtains for him. No tweet yet, so no explanation from the man himself as of now. Not that we really need one. I mean, anyone who has followed this race will tip his hat to someone who can get this far in a death march like this. But I would not be surprised if he got out today because of some medical reason. After all, last weekend he was more than holding his own and seeing the humor of the horrendous schedule of the race. Here's his tweet from Friday the 21st: "39 hours of racing these last 7 days. One way to get some solid training in before we hit the big climbs coming up...". Then on Sunday the 23rd, the day the peloton had to climb the near ludicrous Zoncolan: "I would almost recommend riding up here for the view. Almost...". And after a very decent job (39th) in the only slightly less crazy time trial to the Plan de Corones last Tuesday, there was this message: "Now for the cable car ride down." Why haven't there been any Froome Watch installments since last week, in spite of all the excitement? It's for the same reason I haven't watched any of the stages live on tv in more than a week. There was work, there were the rides to and from work, and last weekend there was also a little outing in search for the first hilly miles since spring training in Tuscany, last March. While I was leaving Chris and the fans of the Froome Watch to their own devices, I managed to log 268 miles of my own the past seven days. All I can say is I'm sorry.

Froome Watch, VIII

2010-05-20T15:02:00.000-07:00

I'm about the last one to complain about work, but it can get in the way of other things you're interested in doing. Yesterday's stage in the Giro would have been fun to watch because it turned things upside down in the overall standings. Chris apparently did not play a major role. He was in the last bus, which came in past the 10% limit but which was granted an extra 2% of the winner's time, or about eight minutes, to make it in. Perhaps the team planned it that way (just hold your peace and save some strength in that last group) because with team leader Bradley Wiggins in the large escape group, Team Sky suddenly is back in contention for the overall, and being a decent climber, Chris may be able to help his leader in the mountains next week. I didn't watch today's stage either, but it made Chris happy, as witness his tweet after the race: "Great day in the sun with the guys today- actually the best so far this Giro...".

Froome Watch, VII

2010-05-18T13:41:00.000-07:00

They continue to be eventful stages for Chris Froome and the other Giro riders. Lots of rain and flooded roads yesterday, and today and tomorrow two long stages. Three weeks of racing every day in these hectic and difficult conditions is a long time, and the worst may yet be to come. Before the race started, ten days ago in Amsterdam, everyone talked about how difficult the final week was going to be, thanks to a series of mountain stages. Few expected the first half of this event to be as hard as it turned out to be. Chris's tweet this morning gives an indication on what it looks like from inside the peloton: "230km for today's stage 10 and blue skies for the first time this #giro. Nearly half way. 262km tomorrow". Nearly half way, that's both good and bad news, I think. It didn't keep Chris and his teammates to spend long kilometers at the front of the peloton and provide other services to give their sprinter a chance at the end of the day.

Iran, NATO, and the Role of the West

2010-05-17T13:17:00.000-07:00

I wanted to write, of course, about the apparent deal that Turkey and Brazil were able to strike over Iran's nuclear program today, a deal that has eluded the Western powers led by the United States. It is a good way to start pondering how international politics is changing. Another way to get at this is NATO's new strategic concept, a first draft of which was presented to NATO's secretary general today. NATO, chair of the drafting committee Madeleine Albright said, is a regional organization first, and it is not a global policeman. This points in the same direction as the Iran news, namely that the "West" such as it is (think also of the EU's current crisis) is no longer what it used to be in the world. But I just saw Dan Drezner's latest post on his blog, and it articulates just about everything I was going to say about it. So why don't you read that. In the meantime, I'll get ready for the briefing about the NATO paper by the vice-chair of the drafting committee, Dutchman Jeroen van der Veer, this Friday in The Hague-- so that I can report on it all here, of course.

Froome Watch, VI

2010-05-16T13:29:00.000-07:00

Yes indeed, I'm following the Giro d'Italia. I'd pay attention anyway, but I've also met a rider, Chris Froome of the Sky Team, and now I have a little stake in the proceedings. So after a decent bit of work of my own this morning, what do I see when I turn on my television? It's number 175 doing his part (and then some) in a 17-man breakaway on the way to Terminillo. When the break hit the final climb of the day, it broke into pieces, and Chris wasn't among the leaders anymore. But he still managed to finish a little ahead of the likes of Pozzato and also hold off the bus. I think we'll see more of him before this race is over.

Froome Watch, V

2010-05-15T13:54:00.000-07:00

Some stage today, not only because of the rain, but also, especially, because of the gravel roads (turned into muddy paths) in the final 30 kilometers. It was Tuscany, and it was pretty, but above all it was filthy and cold. No tweet yet from Chris, the Team Sky rider I met a week ago following his opening time trial in Amsterdam, who is probably still busy getting clean. He finished in a big bus, broken up into several parts, coming in between 24 and 25 minutes behind the winner. Not sure if days like this make the life of a professional cyclist exhilarating or excruciating. If it was just a group ride, it would probably be a great memory (though not necessarily pleasant to do), but this is work--a race, where ultimately only the result counts. In that sense, most guys in the pack probably would rather forget today's stage. We'll soon find out through the great Twitter machine.

More Afghanistan Stuff

2010-05-14T13:23:00.000-07:00

Another difference between the U.S. and Diem era of the late '50s and early '60s and the U.S. and Karzai era today: an apparently straightforward military leader. General McCrystal, the U.S. commander for Afghanistan, talked about "progress" yesterday, but he added that as for now, nobody is winning. He made other candid statements in an interview well worth watching in its entirety.

Froome Watch, IV

2010-05-14T12:51:00.000-07:00

The world is going so crazy over the Chris Froome watch that even the man himself has now taken note. No close watching yesterday or today, because I was on some longer rides myself that got me to the tv after the daily Giro broadcast ended. Chris lost a little time both days, but a lot less than many others, so now he's climbed in the overall standings. Watch for him to do more of that as the hillier stages develop. On Twitter, Chris has linked to the website of David Kinjah, who through his Safari Simbaz organization seeks to promote competitive cycling in Kenya, especially among kids. It's where Chris got his start (as a mountainbiker, before switching to the road after moving to South Africa). Tomorrow's stage is a long one, and it should be pretty: Tuscany.

Afghanistan Stuff

2010-05-12T13:13:00.001-07:00

The Obama administration's relationship with the Karzai regime in Kabul continues to resemble Ike's and JFK's relationship with South Vietnam's Ngo Dhin Diem in the late 1950s and early 1960s, especially today. We know he's no good (corrupt, stubborn, impopular, generally ineffective), but don't see an alternative that's better in the circumstances. Having supported the man and said many nice things about him (primarily under Obama's predecessor, but still), it would damage our own credibility suddenly to declare our dependence on him a mistake. There is one difference, however: negotiations with the enemy, the subject of today's talks at the White House. In 1963, when there were signs that the Diem regime might be open to talks with the communist regime in Hanoi, it may have contributed to the Kennedy administration's willingness to have Diem replaced (what would become the November coup, in which Diem and his brother Nhu--the government's designated point person for contacts with the communists--were killed). Today, the discussion is not about whether talks should be conducted with certain Taliban, but how. They're different situations, but at least today we're recognizing that ultimately all the parties in Afghanistan are Afghans, and that they'll have to work things out together long after Western troops stop playing a major role in their country.
In the Netherlands there have been developments too, as explained last week by The Holland Bureau. The PvdA, the social democrats, now would be willing to support a new Dutch mission in Afghanistan, as long as the emphasis is on police (training) work. The social democrats, of course, were the ones who brought down the government earlier this year because, eh, well that depends on who you talk to. Over here, we've called it cynical, shortsighted, and selfish political opportunism, but more nuanced interpretations can be found also. In any case, only last month the party voted against a proposal by the Greens and the centrist D'66 to consider sending a police mission, on the grounds that so many military might be needed to protect these police people, that the end-result would be a military mission anyway. It was the party's foreign policy spokesman, Martijn van Dam (he of the "let's try unilateral nuclear disarmament again, just like in the 1980s!" idea) setting the tone here. But in response more serious people in the party have begun to weigh in. As Giles over at The Holland Bureau reported, new party leader Job Cohen has recently left the police mission option on the table. And yesterday in an interview in the Volkskrant (no link--only for subscribers) former party leader Ed van Thijn openly criticized the party's pulling the plug on the government last February over Afghanistan. Van Thijn does not, shall we say, find it credible to have been so rigid about the 2007 resolution to end the mission in 2010. There has come a new U.S. president, I'm paraphrasing his words, with a new strategy, and what is the meaning of all this professed support for Obama, what kind of ally this it make us, if you then just ignore all that and leave? Good question.

Froome Watch, III

2010-05-12T07:09:00.000-07:00

I'm watching the team time trial, and just saw Chris Froome hanging on for dear life after about ten miles, not pulling through. The next time they showed the team, they were with only seven (one rider of the nine having fallen behind due to a flat early on), so perhaps he got dropped. The Flemish commentators have noted that the team had the fastest split at the half-way mark. But this may have been without my new friend.
Update: Chris Froome's team, Team Sky, finished second in today's team time trial, and it looks they could live with that. Here's Froome's tweet: "Running 2nd after an effort like that is just not as rewarding as it should be. Spirits high though. 2morrow a new day, a new opportunity!" It wasn't a very spectacular day, but if you looked at the faces of the riders, especially in the final kilometer, you realized how tough a team time trial is. Same with watching guys taking their place at the rear of the rotation after a turn at the front: that is a matter of centimeters, and if you're just a little late, you're gapped and you have to bring all hands on deck just to stay in contact. Problem is, those hands are on deck from mile one, so it can get desperate pretty quickly. In other words, there are still many worthwhile aspects to a day like this that can justify an hour or two in front of the television.

Froome Watch, II

2010-05-10T13:48:00.000-07:00

Another hectic stage, which I was only able to watch intermittently on my computer. I never saw Chris, but it looks like he was a victim of the wind and the crashes. Not that he was the only one. He finished in the biggest group of the day, in the company of Petacchi and Pozzato, among many others, about eight minutes behind the winner of the day. As of almost 11pm, Chris hasn't twittered yet. I'm sure that's at least partly because right after the race, everyone had to get on planes to make the move to Italy, where the Giro belongs.
Update: Tweet from the rest day: "As great as the atmosphere was in Holland with such enthusiastic and friendly people, it's a relief to be back in Italy!" And who can blame him after the last two days?

Froome Watch, I

2010-05-09T03:55:00.001-07:00

The Giro riders just passed through our town, Nederhorst den Berg, less than ten minutes ago. They were preceded by a four or five man breakaway, which meant that Christopher Froome's Team Sky had to set the pace, in order to defend team leader Bradley Wiggins' pink jersey. And who was at the very head of the peloton, doing his job? Yes indeed. Last night I sent him a warning over Twitter about the bumpy section of road right in front of our house, and it looks he took it to heart.
Update: Not really news for those who watched the stage into Utrecht, but here's Chris's Tweet after finishing 181st, 4.19 minutes behind the winner:
"That was absolute carnage!! Literally bodies EVERYWHERE"
Indeed, lots of ugly crashes. One of these, near the end, put Chris's leader, Wiggins, half a minute behind the lead pack, meaning that the hard work the team did at the head of the peloton all day to defend the pink jersey was for nothing.

Il Grande Giro

2010-05-08T10:17:00.000-07:00

It has started, this afternoon here in Amsterdam, and I was a part of it--a little. It started this morning at our local bakery, which had prepared special pink Giro d'Italia strawberry cakes in honor of the race, which passes through here early in the second stage on Sunday. I got the last one. Then I rode over to Amsterdam to watch some of the prologue action and hopefully get on camera somewhere in my IS Corp kit so that my friends over in Milwaukee could see me. It was hard to find tv cameras, just like it was hard to find a good spot from where to watch the riders. While it was possible to find room along the guardrail, the crowds were easily big enough to make the good spots inaccessible, certainly by bike. So I rode alongside the course for a little ways, then checked out the start area on the Museum square. It was easy to get close to riders there, as the teams' warm-up areas were right alongside the public walking areas. No way could I get on camera near the start. What I should have done, I realized after watching the last twenty minutes of this prologue back home on t.v., was first to watch a little t.v. at home to see where the cameras were pointed, then ride to the city and find those spots. Oh well, I think I got something better in the end, after also checking out the finishing area, near the old Olympic stadium. It was crowded there too, although I did catch a glimpse of two-time winner Gilberto Simoni going through the final turn. But when I started back, there was a Team Sky rider going the same way, and we ended up riding back to the start area together. It was Chris Froome (I needed to ask) who, he said, had taken it easy on purpose. We got on the topic of the risks of the course as we maneuvered over some not entirely dry and treacherous tram rails. He said these tracks had been covered, mercifully, but that he had just taken a spill in the prologue of the Tour of Romandie due to risk-taking, and once was enough. (His cautious ride today was good for 138th place, 51 seconds out of first place, but one second ahead of former winner Damiano Cunego). We then, thanks to me, got on the subject of Matthew Busche, a member of the Radio Shack team (not here) who only a year ago was still on my old team, IS Corp, winning the Wisconsin state road race (a race I used to do until two years ago, though not in the elite category). Froome didn't know him but then talked about how in his own first season in Europe, on the Barloworld team, he got selected to do a lot of big races, including even the Tour de France. Working for Mauricio Soler he even managed to finish, although now he would not recommend introducing young guys to the peloton in this way. When I asked if we would see Soler again, he said he thought so, because his current team, Caisse d'Epargne, seems to be treating him pretty well. In his first year Froome did Paris-Roubaix too, but dropped out due to a mechanical with 50K to go (that might actually have been this year, I forget). He's in this Giro to help his leader, Bradley Wiggins, who is probably quietly hoping to contend for the overall victory. Looks like he's got his work cut out for him. The last thing we talked about was Froome's teammate, Ian Stannard, who isn't on the team for this race. I just had to tell him how awed I was by Stannard's performance in this year's so-called spring classic, Brussels-Kuurne-Brussels, where the riders, as became especially clear from Stannard's post-race interview on Flemish television, were, in Danny Chew's phrase, "brutally raped by the weather." Froome remembered that, and confirmed that Stannard had needed some time fully to recover. And with that, we had reached the Museum square, the location of the Team Sky team bus. I wished him luck as he turned off, promising to watch him closely the coming three weeks. (I should have warned him about the atrocious stretch of road right in front of our house in Nederhorst den Berg, which the peloton will hit during the first hour of tomorrow's second stage, but we ran out of time). As I'll be following the race closely on Flemish tv, I'll start a Froome watch here, starting tomorrow. Among other things, this will be the perfect excuse to tune in every day. Now all I've left to consider is whether to get on Twitter, so that I can follow Froome's tweets.

Security in the 21st Century

2010-05-06T07:30:00.000-07:00

Without my knowing anything about it, there has occurred an international on-line "Security Jam" where experts from a number of organizations brainstormed (or maybe it was a bull session) about the new global security landscape. New York Times article here. Heavily leaning on Western experts, most of the focus was on NATO-EU collaboration. There appear to be fewer specifics on how other large countries such as Russia, China, India, and Brazil (all with a limited commitment to multilateralism) might approach this issue or Western leadership. Speaking of leadership, especially of the political kind, as in: the ability to take effective decisions at the appropriate time (relevant in light of EU dithering during the Greek financial crisis, an economic security threat if there ever was one), the report is remarkably quiet on that. Still, this seems to be a weakness of multilateral organizations such as NATO and the EU, to say nothing of the UN. On the one hand, they're fine mechanisms for consultation and common planning for long-term problems; whether they're good for handling acute crises unfortunately remains to be seen. Perhaps they can be, but it appears that for these organizations to be effective here, it would require political leaders to stand up, put their political capital on the table, and make some tough calls. The report of the Jam can be downloaded here.

Summer in April Cannot Last

2010-04-29T02:46:00.000-07:00

But while it lasts, I have been enjoying it on the bike. Today is probably the high point, given the forecast, and the ride to work was really all you could ask for: almost 70, little wind, sunny. It was the first time this year that I had done the early morning part of the commute in shorts. As if that wasn't enough, it was also the first morning in short sleeves. The only un-summery part of my clothing was my vest, which I wore just in case but which turned out to be unnecessary. I felt particularly overdressed in it when, riding near IJburg, I ran into this old guy happily riding around shirtlessly. In all honesty, that was a bit of an exaggeration too. The old Trek is still in the shop, so I've been using the lighter, stiffer, better running Klein, and winter commuting is but a faint, hazy memory. We'll go back down to the 50s with a chance for rain (we need the rain) this weekend, so I'm sure I'll get a few reminders before summer really begins (and even then ...). But today, it's so nice, you could light a cigarette on the bike, or have it done for you. Why would a life-long non-smoker come up with an idea like this? Well, I just learned that some old cycling friends in Milwaukee, united these days in the Badger Velo Club, have recreated the famous "smoking cyclists" photo, taken probably in the 1930s or 1940s. They are not the first to think of this, but I think they've done the better job of it. Click the three links to judge for yourself.
Update: Riding home early tonight, I ran into the same old guy again, still without his shirt, and he didn't look any worse for wear. It was that kind of day, in April.

It's America--It's About the Government

2010-04-28T05:45:00.000-07:00

I just sent in an op-ed on the Arizona immigration law, the "birther" bill passed by the Arizona House at the same time, and the nature of the popular resistance against the Obama administration (Tea Party movement and such). It's complicated (the links aren't always direct, if they exist at all), but the president's problem is deeper than a failure to explain his policies to the American people, as witness not just the administration's modest poll numbers, but also the poll showing Americans' faith in government near an all-time low. Instead, Obama's opponents believe there to be rather fundamental political differences between themselves and the administration, mostly about the proper role of government. They want a smaller, more frugal government; Obama rather emphasizes everything the government ought to do. A better public relations strategy will only get you so far in a situation like this. More important are results that prove your critics wrong, like an economic recovery with jobs. That may bring some of the moderate critics around enough for Democratic losses in November to remain limited. I will link to the piece once I see it on-line somwhere.

Changing Gears

2010-04-20T08:18:00.000-07:00

I should perhaps write about the alleged Gates memo about the lack of a U.S. Iran policy, because that would give me an opportunity to report on my own op-ed late last month on U.S.-Israeli relations which I conclude by wondering if the Obama administration actually has a policy for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict (the "peace process" not being a very credible phenomenon lately). And maybe I will soon, although I also have things to say about this piece in the St. Petersburg Times by Dmitri Trenin. If you let things slide for a while, they tend to pile up (if that's a metaphor that makes sense). For example, I discovered the blog of a colleague, the Holland Bureau, which is well worth reading. The author has put me on his blog roll, underlining that it is high time for me to figure out how to add one of those rolls to this blog. And I haven't said anything yet about my lecture on Abraham Lincoln and the Civil War, last week at an Amsterdam bookstore, even though that assignment shares a large part of the responsibility for my recent silence. So many issues, so little time (today again also). So I'll quickly tell the story of how my derailler fell off my commuter, last night on the way home. This had never happend to me before, on any bike. It led to another first, namely a phone call to arrange a pick-up and a ride home. Perhaps it was time. Actually, having seen the thread, or lack thereof, in the derailler hanger, I know for a fact it was time for that thing to fall out. I've had the greenish-yellowish Trek 2300 since 1994, and for the first seven years it was my main bike, the one I raced and trained on. Then it became my winter bike, and in recent years it has served as a commuter. In Milwaukee I rode it to the Pettit National Ice Center (and once or twice to waterpolo practice at the Schroeder YMCA in Brown Deer), in Holland I've used it to get back and forth a couple of times a week year-round between Nederhorst den Berg and Amsterdam. Thirteen miles into the ride home yesterday, on the Keverdijk, I was suddenly pushing through air, and I suppose I was lucky that the device did not get caught in my spokes before I could stop. I think there's a way to fix it. Otherwise, my brother has saved the Koga Myata Roadwinner I bought in 1986 or '87. It still runs. If that turned out not to be practical, the dream scenario kicks in: the Klein becomes the year-round commuter, the Colnago becomes the general back-up bike, and at the top of the food chain, we'll put something new, something fast, something light (something expensive).

NATO Will Likely Be Fine

2010-04-03T05:58:00.000-07:00

That was my overall impression last week, at the end of my day at the alliance's Brussels headquarters. The Public Diplomacy Division treated our little delegation of scholars very well (my own tax Euros at work), most of all by introducing us to a series of significant and approachable NATO officials, from the Netherlands and elsewhere. But let's not forget the 1GB NATO flash drive that was waiting for each of us at the conference table, or the NATO ballpoint that doubles as a flasher--in NATO-blue light. I'm not quite sure what I was really expecting from the visit, even though we received the agenda ahead of time. The chance for boilerplate presentations and stock answers is always there, after all. However, in the course of the visit I was increasingly pleased with the level of discussion, even though on no issue (be they the future orientation of the alliance, relations with Russia, or the new strategic concept) did anyone have clear, unambiguous answers. But that, of course, was why it all worked, why the whole thing was encouraging: today's world, and this growing alliance of currently 28 different members, does not allow for many clear, unambiguous answers. You do need an overall idea of what's going on and where you'd like to go--a strategy; a process by which you can reach workable approaches to problems; and you have to have intelligent people--honest about the inevitable problems, conflicts, and failure--committed to make things work. If our visit is any guidance, the alliance does not lack the latter (perhaps the most important element); NATO's identity seems to embody a cumbersome but inevitable and generally productive consensus-seeking process; and by the end of the year there may well be a new strategic concept that does justice to both the way the alliance has been changing recently and an international environment that has changed significantly, not just since the end of the Cold War, but since the late 1990s. Downsides to the visit? Well, Powerpoint presentations (inevitable, we were told, when soldiers talk) take the life out of meetings, and it would have been nice also to meet an American, the U.S. being in a league of its own in NATO. Oh, and nobody remembered my contribution from the early 1980s to our victory in the Cold War. That sucked.

NATO and Me

2010-03-24T13:42:00.000-07:00

The last time I was with NATO was in 1984. A student at Amsterdam, I was called up for a refresher/mobilization exercise to see if I could still handle the early 1960s gasoline truck I had learned to drive during my year of military service in 1982. When I got the call-up, that morning in 1984, I had to drop everything I was doing, get my gear (which I had brought home with me after completing my year of training), and head over to the meeting point near the city of Eindhoven, because we were pretending there was an international crisis and our unit had to prepare its vehicles and head East to meeting invading Warsaw Pact forces. It was like my year as a conscript: lots of waiting, lots of lame but adequate jokes, very mediocre food, and some driving around. The really good part was that lots of guys I had served with in 1982 got called up too, so it was a bit like a reunion. The bad part was that after arriving we basically had to go two nights without sleep before heading out into early morning rush hour traffic at 20 m/h. That was really dangerous, because there was no way you could keep your eyes open, even though you were fully aware of the situation. I remember slapping myself non-stop, sticking my head out the window, screaming at the top of my lungs, and still having my eyes close on me. At least one truck drove off the road, into a tree. I was really upset, because I was driving around with about 6,000 liters of gasoline on my back, surrounded by regular traffic going two or three times my speed. But other than that, it's a great memory. The memories of 1982 are almost all positive also, although at the time I would not have predicted this. Tomorrow, I'll be going back, but I doubt if it will be as eventful. As a guest of the Dutch Atlantic Commission I'll be part of a group of Dutch academics visiting NATO headquarters outside Brussels for a series of meetings with alliance officials about a variety of current NATO matters (for example the new strategic concept). It should still be pretty interesting, even though there are no former army buddies on the list of participants. If any of them reads this, maybe it's time for another reunion?

Big Day

2010-03-18T14:05:00.000-07:00

A second cycling post in a row, but today happens only once a year: first day in shorts--yesssir! We got our first snow before Christmas, and since that time it's been miserable (certainly for these parts), with frequent snow and other wintry precipitation. Just last Monday I rode home, start to finish, in a cold rain that made me cranky all evening (from fatigue). Tuesday was better, and yesterday I cleaned my commuter (the very old 1992 Trek 2300) and my winter bike (the good old 2001 Klein) outside, without wearing a coat. It was a lot of work, even for a half-ass job. This morning at 8:30 it was chilly, but I was fine in my summer shoes, two long-sleeve layers and a vest, and no gloves. Tights still, of course. During the day it really warmed up. Lots of people in Amsterdam were sitting outside by the middle of the day, and the 60 or so degrees felt otherworldly. So there I went, around 5:30: shorts and very pale-looking legs. But pretty smooth. The shaving job of two weeks ago still made a difference. It was so mild that my two long-sleeve layers on top actually felt too warm. It was my third day back-and-forth this week, and this on top of a very good Saturday ride with the Eendracht boys (59 cold and windy miles) and my first 200 mile week of the year thanks to the Tuscany trip. So I wasn't exactly flying, but I did ride home the long way, and I certainly enjoyed myself.

Under Tuscan Skies

2010-03-13T02:42:00.000-08:00

PMCV (Pittsburgh Masters Velo Club) Europe traveled to Tuscany on March 6 for four days of spring training. Amid many last-minute work-related activities on Thrusday, March 4, the Dutch department spent half an hour shaving his legs in anticipation of the opportunity, surely to present itself, to do a ride or two in shorts. PMVC Holland and PMVC Italy celebrated the launch of their adventure the next evening, at their favorite pizza restaurant in Verona. Before the drive to Tuscany on Saturday, there was time for an easy warm-up ride to the resort town of Bardolino on Lake Garda. The riders, if they say so themselves, looked sharp and relaxed all at once on their Nikor machines expertly tuned by friend and mechanic Carlo. It was a sunny but cool Saturday morning, so no shorts. There was time for a quick coffee in Bardolino where, just having passed a frozen puddle on the way into town, we wisely decided against joining the half dozen cyclists outside on the patio by the marina. Neither did we follow the example of several women (Dutch, according to Michele) whom we encountered downtown holding big scoops of gelato. Early that evening we joined a few dozen Verona cyclists at a resort outside of the Tuscan town of San Vincenzo (south of Livorno, north of Follonica) for the first of a series of adequate, but for San Vero Milis veterans wholly unremarkable, meals. Sunday it was cool and sunny again, definitely not shorts weather. Full gloves at the start, plus two layers of long-sleeves under a vest. A nice up-and-down 68 miler, most of it together with three members of the Grezzana team (from a Verona suburb). After the five of us separated ourselves from the larger group of Masters riders of various levels, we easily fell into a pace line rotation--my first of the season. It is always a wonderful feeling to do your first pace line of the year, it makes you feel like a cyclist again the way no amount of solo training miles can do. Part of the way we rode towards the riders of the Granfondo Cecina, which we could have joined ourselves but given the limited amount of training so far this year wisely skipped. The afternoon, after lunch, was spent on intellectual activity in the hotel room. Social activity not encouraged. Urged on by Michele, I did go for a walk on the beach, in sight of Elba island and a setting sun. A good thing I went then, because the weather the following days made the beach a virtual no-go area. On Monday it became clear definitively that the legs had been shaved for nothing. That day we did another 68 miler, quite windy and quite cool again, as part of a larger group in which a major rivalry developed (we imagined) between the Liquigas riders (Big Liquigas and Little Liquigas) on the one hand, and Grezzana supplemented by PMVC on the other. We kicked their behinds, truth be told, in spite of a missed turn by me (corrected in a fortuitously available driveway). In the afternoon we drove to a grey, cold, and windy Follonica, where I did get some gelato and also bought a pair of Whistle cycling socks (in honor of Joe Papp, of the long-defunct Partisan Whistle Granfondo team). Tuesday we woke up to ... snow and gale force winds. Nobody rode that day. Instead, there was a drive into town, where it was empty of people and only 2 degrees Celsius, lots of intellectual activity, and a visit to the sauna to break up the long stretch between lunch and dinner. This was the one occasion where I could show off my shaved legs, but I don't think anyone noticed. Wednesday was only marginally better, but at least it was dry at the 9am departure time. Supplemented by several new, and stronger, Grezzana riders, we went out toward Bolgheri, of the famous Viale dei Cipressi Bolgheri. One of the new Grezzana guys, we referred to him as "the big guy," set a good rid-out pace, and we never really slowed down after that, in spite of the rapidly worsening conditions. The ride became near-epic, even though it was only 33 miles long. Wind, wet roads, and a cold drizzle contributed to that, together with the pace, our soaked and near-freezing state toward the end, and last but not least the snow on the streets in the village of Bolgheri. I could not follow all the discussions in the group, but I think finding snow at this only slightly elevated site led to the decision to make this a quick out-and-back hammerfest (a hammerfest was obligatory just to stay warm), with a quick coffee stop in the middle. It would have been foolish not to stop at the excellent coffee house. Michele carried the PMVC computer, so he can add the speeds at various points, but this last ride certainly felt like the real thing, and we both agreed that together with the other outings, it made us better. Mission accomplished, therefore, although the wait for spring continues.

Barack Baines Obama

2010-03-04T14:47:00.000-08:00

Did an op-ed this week about where health care reform is headed after Obama's summit with the Republicans. First I take the Economist to task for that one-sided editorial ten days ago (Washington isn't broken, it's the politicians, especially Obama; with the implication that "if only" the president had reached out to Republicans, there could have been a lot more progress--gimme a break), then I essentially argue that Obama needs to emulate Lyndon Johnson as much as he can if he wants a health care reform bill passed this spring. Get on the phone and flatter, cajole, intimidate, and bribe to assemble the required number of votes. I'd write more, but I'm packing for a little spring training in Tuscany. (It sounds casual, but it will be my first time--there will be a report in a week or so).

Leaving It All Out On The Course

2010-02-28T09:52:00.000-08:00

Opening weekend of the road season in Belgium, for many the real start of the season (forget the Majorca, Qatar, and even Besseges races). Yesterday (Omloop Het Nieuwsblad) was fine and nice to look at, but today's Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne was something else. Brutally harsh weather with rain and wind all day. If you weren't able to watch it on Flemish tv, you can read up on it, for example here. You can also watch some clips, if they play where you are. The thing I wanted to highlight is the way two of the three breakaway riders looked and sounded after the race. Winner Bobbie Traksel seemed fine. But he had won, and he really was the strongest of the day. But Rabo's Rick Flens, second, and especially Brit Ian Stannard just looked terrible in the post race interviews, to the point where you had to worry about their long-term well-being. If the clip connected to Stannard's name plays (look for "Reactie Stannard" on the left-hand side here), you may get some idea. He's barely able to talk, looking almost desperate from the cold. Afterwards, I watched him on the podium. He had to go out first, having finished third, and he looked absolutely miserable. He tried to acknowledge the crowd and the well-wishers, but he wasn't really there. And this after having fought valiantly during the race, having done his share at the front and also having attacked several times in the finale. He really did leave it all out on those miserable, wet and windy Flemish roads today.

Afghanistan and Dutch Cabinet

2010-02-22T04:17:00.000-08:00

Did the Dutch Social Democrats opportunistically bring down the Dutch cabinet at the expense of their country's reputation within NATO, NATO's mission in Afghanistan, and the people of the Uruzgan region where Dutch troops have operated fairly successfully since 2006? How did it happen, and what does it really mean? I've seen two papers so far today, de Volkskrant and Trouw, and two pieces in particular stood out for me: first, the interview with the leader of the PvdA, the Social Democrats, Wouter Bos in de Volkskrant. Pushed on his party's role in the government's sollicitation of a formal NATO request earlier this month for some kind of extension to the Dutch mission in Uruzgan, he uses the convenient but ultimately, shall we say, unconvincing term "misunderstandings" to explain what happened. He also hides behind his man in the foreign ministry: development minister Koenders, who, he implies, handled this matter on behalf of the Social Democratic ministers. Maybe foreign minister Verhagen thought concrete discussions in the cabinet about an extension would only be possible if there was a formal NATO request, Bos says, maybe he had gotten the impression somehow that this was the PvdA position. But if he did, he was wrong. There certainly could not have been any doubt about where the Social Democrats stood on Uruzgan, he says. Or was there? Everyone knows that NATO doesn't submit these kinds of formal requests if it's not clear there will some kind of positive response. It is unlikely that the foreign minister would have asked NATO for a formal request had he been under the impression that the Social Democrats would categorically reject any kind of extension for the Uruzgan mission (although the Volkskrant criticizes the foreign minister for probably misrepresenting the Dutch political situation to NATO).

We won't know for sure until we get to read the files, for example of the cabinet meetings at the beginning of February, but for now, I'm with Johan ten Hove, long-time writer for Trouw this morning. He describes a fictious discussion two weeks ago between three officials, all named Wouter Bos: the political leader of the PvdA, the minister of finance, and the vice-prime minister. The political leader is in charge: we'll bring down this cabinet by standing "on principle" i.e. the initial decision in 2007 to make the current Uruzgan mission the last round because that's politically useful for us right now. The ministers Bos protest a little: we've just asked NATO for a letter; it would be irresponsible in times of financial and economic crisis to bring down a government this way--but the political leader wins out. Final question from one of the ministers Bos: what will become of the people in Uruzgan? Uruzgan? Those people don't vote in our elections, do they?

This gets us to the bigger question of what really happened here. It seems obvious: narrow domestic political considerations won out over all other relevant questions in this matter. It does not matter for the PvdA that Dutch troops have worked, and fought, really hard for years in Uruzgan at great personal sacrifice and that they've been fairly successful given the circumstances. (Other piece in today's Volkskrant: the local population will hate to see the Dutch go: "the Taliban may come back.") The fact that the work and sacrifice of years may be wasted by a complete withdrawal--as opposed to, say a more gradual draw-down during which another alliance member and local Afghan forces could be prepared to take over--doesn't matter to the Social Democrats. It does not matter to them either, professions of sympathy and friendship notwithstanding, that a new U.S. president has decided to make a new, hard push to turn things around in Afghanistan in preparation for a draw-down, and that he has asked America's allies to stand by him. We're your friend, sure, just don't ask us for anything. The Social Democrats apparently do not care either about what a withdrawal as a lead-nation in an important sector of Afghanistan will do to the willingness of other member countries to stick this out.

The really sad thing is that in the first opinion poll since the fall of the cabinet, the Social Democrats have gained some ground. Ultimately, therefore, this is about more than the PvdA's decision to pursue its own perceived narrow self-interest. This whole affair may also be a reflection of a growing scepticism among the population at large toward the Afghanistan mission, NATO, and the alliance with the U.S. With the leadership they've been getting lately, that may still be disappointing, but it can't really be a surprise.

Afghanistan Takes Down Dutch Government

2010-02-21T08:50:00.000-08:00

This is the news out of the Hague this weekend, although the full story is more complicated. But it's true: last week there emerged an irreconcilable conflict between the Social-Democratic and Christian-Democratic members of the government over a NATO request to consider keeping Dutch troops in Afghanistan in some capacity beyond their current mandate, scheduled to end later this year. Both Christian Democratic parties in the cabinet of Prime-Minister Jan-Peter Balkenende (the guy who looks a little like Harry Potter) were willing to consider the NATO request (backed by considerable U.S. pressure), the Social Democrats were not. They pointed especially to a vote in the parliament last fall, confirming that the current mission in Uruzgan would end in 2010 as scheduled. They're also down in the polls, losing a lot of ground to the populist PVV (anti-Islamist Geert Wilders) and the more left-of-center Socialist Party, and must have decided that it was vital to take a clear stand and stick with it. Interesting detail, however, is the origins of the NATO request, which the foreign minister, backed by Balkenende and others in the cabinet, insists was discussed and approved by the cabinet ahead of time. They seem to be right. In other words, before NATO sent its request, it had verified that the response would be positive, that there was a willingness in the Hague to find some way to extend the mission in Afghanistan. But in parliament last week, prior to the cabinet meeting where the NATO request would first be discussed, Social Democratic leader and vice prime minister Wouter Bos openly rejected this call, thereby not only pulling the rug out from under this government, but also going back on his word. I think Bos decided to play it really hard (and possibly a little below the belt) by luring his coalition partners into the trap of the NATO request, and next take a stand on principle. He must have known what the NATO soundings about a possible formal request meant, after all.

The arguments against a further Dutch presence have at times included the alleged pointlessness of the mission, the need for a Dutch policy independent of the U.S., and the "fact" that the Dutch have been there long enough and that it's time for someone else to step up. But Afghanistan wasn't the only reason for the break. People who know Dutch politics much better than I do, and who have been following this government from its start three years ago, point out that this had become a dysfunctional group that agreed on less and less. Infamously, when it became clear last year that significant budget cuts will be necessary due to the economic crisis, all this government was capable of was to form about twenty working groups of high-level civil servants to come up with some proposals later in 2010. Talk about abdicating your responsibility to govern, to make the tough decisions. More recently there was an independent report on the extent of the Dutch support for the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2002-03--quite strong, although without direct military involvement--which criticized the government at the time (also led by Balkenende). Because the prime minister initially did not show enough contrition in their view, the Social Democrats pushed things to the verge of a crisis then also. So the causes are complex and also have to do with the political instability and disorientation that has plagued this country since at least 2002, when the out-of-nowhere politician (and some would say: populist) Pim Fortuyn was murdered right before an election he was poised to win. Later there was the murder of filmmaker Theo van Gogh by a domestic Islamic extremist, and since a few years we have Wilders, a kind of Fortuyn wanna-be, although coarser and more opportunistic. Every unhappy country is unhappy in its own way, but the Netherlands does seem to resemble other Western democracies in the volatility of its politics and, especially, the lack of faith people have in politicians' ability (or even commitment) to address important problems.

Still, foreign affairs has played an important part. While opposition to foreign interventions or peace keeping missions isn't massive, it is considerable, and it is growing. Furthermore, influential voices openly question the alliance with the U.S., arguing instead that the Dutch should put all their security eggs in a European basket. This of course raises the key question, and it's not a new one: does the Netherlands--does Europe, really--have an alternative to some form of alliance with the United States? Should it even want one, even if Europe ever became capable of acting in a unified way in international politics (not something anyone old enough to be able to read this will experience in their lifetime)? It says something, though, that serious people are perfectly happy not just to raise this illusion as an option, but to advocate for its realization here and now. I think it testifies to a deep-seated, though not always openly acknowledged, anti-Americanism (regardless of who runs the government in Washington). In addition, a serious dose of wishful thinking about the possibilities of the EU has to be part of it too. It's not that one can't be convinced that Europe eventually will have to come together, also in foreign and defense matters, what's troubling is the kind of either-or thinking that seems to inform these arguments: just get rid/out of NATO, and we'll be on our way. I'm well into a new post now, although all this stuff is connected. I'll have to continue it at some later date.

Another Hooky Ride, Finally

2010-02-16T13:16:00.001-08:00

The weather has been bad, although it's been good for winter sports. This, winter sports, caused a problem two weeks ago, when I took a hard fall on the Amsterdam speedskating oval and separated my shoulder a little ("piano key injury"). The ice was bad that morning when we got on, and two showers consisting of a wintry mix of snow, rain, and sleet turned it into a very rough sandpaper. The stuff just seemed to freeze to the surface. Instead of getting off, I decided to do a few more laps, started to get very sloppy in a turn, and took myself down. I might as well have fallen off my bike, because there was absolutely no sliding of any kind. First I hit my right shoulder, then I did a kind of salto (someone who watched it told me later) to land on my knees (which were bloody and bruised). After that, I just lay there--no smooth sliding to the outer lane, hoping not to take anyone else down with you. It hurt, and after putting some ice on it (and taking a shower during which I sighed and swore a lot) we went to the emergency room where the x-ray showed a mild case of separated shoulder. (When I signed in, they still had my name, address, and phone number on file from when I had knee surgery there in 1985). That started almost two weeks of doing nothing, except keeping my arm in a sling part of the time and going for walks. But in week 2 things started to feel better, and when I saw the doctor, he spoke the now famous words: "if it doesn't hurt, do it." A little ride last Saturday to see how it felt, and today the roads were clean enough for a first 21 miler. It really didn't feel that unusal, considering that it was also only just above freezing with a decent breeze. I did my usual hooky loop (Vreeland, where the skating course looked just fine, Loenersloot, Abcoude, Weesp) and it took a little longer than normal, but a 17 m/h average isn't horrible. It felt very nice to be back outside, moving.

Defending Obama

2010-02-14T06:23:00.000-08:00

It needs to be done, if only to point out that he's hemmed in from many sides, not the least of which is the U.S. political system, broadly defined. The U.S. is a presidential democracy, but this doesn't mean the president can just order everyone else around, at least not for very long. How do you get legislation passed? With enough votes, obviously. What do you need to assemble these? You certainly need a certain amount of courage, a willingness to stand up for what you believe is right, the determination to take charge--call it what you want. Lyndon Johnson had all these things in spades. But more important was his ability to wheel and deal, to persuade members of Congress to vote his way. There's overlap between the two, but in the end it's about taking the political situation in Washington and the mood of the country (very different today from that during the 88th and 89th Congress), and combine it with your own vision in a way that gets some concrete and effective legislation to your desk. Now, about this country, it's essentially conservative, right-of-center, anti-government (even though most rely on the government in one way or another--who ever claimed politics was rational or logical?). That goes for the current Congress too, in spite of the Democratic majorities. And this hard-to-pin-down popular "mood"? People want things done, but primarily in the area of employment, especially their own. Many people may not think things through, and quite a few are susceptible to mainstream media manipulation. But that's at the heart of the current political environment. I'm cutting corners left and right here, I know. Leftist critics of the president should not be insulted by members of the White House staff, but I think they're wrong to imply that if only Obama had put his foot down last year, he would have signed health care reform legislation and a climate bill months ago. Does that mean Obama cannot be criticized? Of course not. Leadership does matter in politics, and perhaps he should have been more aggressive. But I for one believe it would not have brought these bills to his desk any faster--on the contrary.

Speaking of aggression--that's of course part of the criticism of his anti-terror policies. "Assassin-in-chief," as some say. Too aggressive, possibly counter-productive, also with the drones in the Pakistani tribal areas. In parts it's also in contempt of the Constitution. Of course, LBJ, the president praised for getting historic civil rights legislation, Medicaid and Medicare, and many other reforms passed, also murderously escalated the war in Vietnam. Furthermore, his "Rolling Thunder" campaign of terror against North Vietnam wasn't unconnected to the escalation practiced by JFK (with chemical warfare in the South rather central to it)--another president coming in for some cautious praise by those advocating the social-democratization of the U.S. (not that there necessarily would by anything wrong with that--except that it would be un-American in a literal, not rhetoric, sense). But that aside, I'll just point to the fact that Obama did not initiate these policies, just like, for example, he did not believe the U.S. should have intervened in Iraq. But is he withdrawing precipitously from that country? Of course not, he can't. It's much easier to get into these things than to get out. I think it's the same with the Bush anti-terror policies, especially the way the government claims it needs to deal with terror suspects or known terrorists who mean the U.S. and its friends great harm. JFK once told the historian David Herbert Donald that no-one who had not been at that oval office desk ought to presume s/he could grade a president. In one way, that's a profoundly undemocratic statement, but in another way it contains an important truth too often pushed aside. To cut to it: do I think Obama would like to make (further) changes in the Bush-Cheney anti-terror policies, especially their (il)legality? I do, but I don't think that's so easy, in part because of the way Cheney--aided by Fox News, Bill Kristol, and all his other allies-- himself the past year has assembled a stab-in-the-back legend ready to be rolled out at the time of the next successful terrorist attack against the U.S. The climate of fear in the U.S. since 9/11 may be out of proportion with the actual threat (especially relative to other harmful domestic and international developments), but it's very real, and politically it's both explosive and poisonous. You may be able to change some of these policies, but you'd better be extremely careful in proceeding.

Finally, there's another way to look at this "assassination" issue, namely as a fairly conventional act of war, albeit in the context of a rather unconventional war. If you consider yourself at war, in part because someone else has declared war on you, you get to take out members of enemy forces who are out to harm you. It's more that a little shady in the current war on Al Qaeda and affiliated groups, but that's primarily because of the way these groups have chosen to wage their war. Not only is it a-symmetrical warfare (can't really blame enemies for choosing that general approach against the U.S.), it relies on terror and behind it is also the motivation of the suicide-bomber--i.e. it cannot be appeased in any way. (I don't believe a total withdrawal by the U.S. from the Middle East would end this, even if this was in any way practical). But indeed: who on our side decides, and how, who needs to be taken out in the other camp? The government's record in identifying genuine, fanatical and dangerous terrorists suggests that Cheney's One-Percent Doctrine continues to motivate people, and it's obvious there's much more harm than good in that. But I'd still be reluctant to do away with at least the theoretical possibility that the commander-in-chief, charged with maintaining the security of the U.S., has this option.

The Buck Does Stop At His Desk, But ...

2010-02-06T10:03:00.000-08:00

Here's a comment (slightly edited) I posted at Martian Utopia Cafe, whose author in turn had linked to a recent Glenn Greenwald post about the troubling continuities between the "war on terror" policies of the past and current administrations. Obama too (he's the head of this government) reserves the right to label people, including Americans, terrorists, not share any evidence, and yet assassinate them. Does this make him like Cheney? Some would say, essentially, yes, and they're scathing, maybe even withering, in their criticism of the president. Here's what I wrote:

I won't scathe, because as your Jon Stewart post also shows, there's too much of that right now. Also, it sounds too much like "skate," and I just separated my shoulder doing that. I read Greenwald, and he's often hard to resist. Still, I'm balking at the Obama-Cheney analogy. It just doesn't fit, it's taking a more than legitimate opposition to an existing policy one or two steps too far. The policy exists, and the buck stops at Obama's desk, so ultimately it's his. But I feel the following also matter: it's an inherited policy; it's a policy that has become the co-property of the vast government intelligence and national security apparatus; it's a policy in the politically most sensitive area: the "war on terror," an area where the new administration (it's still relatively new) has been making some (not enough!) significant improvements; and I'm not willing to ignore that this war is an extremely unconventional and dirty one where in some cases it may be necessary to deal with an enemy in an unconventional way (i.e. assassinate, rather than capture and try him). In short, while I'm unhappy with the implications of the policy, I'm trying also to figure out why it's still in place, perhaps giving the president too much benefit of the doubt (maybe I also had lower expectations of him, or of his ability to change a lot of things overnight by executive order or otherwise). He's operating in a tough bureaucratic environment, and he's operating in a dysfunctional political environment (poisoned, also, by Cheney and his stooges). He also now is responsible for fighting off the Islamist terrorists, and he gets to see a lot more intelligence than the rest of us. I understand that in regard to the latter point, the traditional government "trust us" argument no longer works, and yet I'm willing to believe that the current administration acts in good faith. Cop out or "real world," I just cannot see it otherwise than as extremely complicated. I certainly would not want to be in Obama's shoes (another cop out?). If in two years time policy in this area was exactly as it is today, I might feel different, but for now I'm going to give him a little more time.

Obama After Massachusetts

2010-02-03T11:09:00.000-08:00

I have other stuff on my mind, which I will get to, but for now just my latest op-ed, written after watching the President's State of the Union last Thursday morning. What does it say? Massachusetts is a set-back. Politics isn't fair: you work hard to avoid a new Great Depression, and succeed, but because job growth lags, the focus is on unemployment and debt, and you increasingly get blamed. There was the campaign from the right. But there was also the leeway for the Democrats in Congress, probably too much. And there was the expansion of the role of government, necessary perhaps, but never popular, least in time of huge deficits. The State of the Union speech? Primarily a sincere call for everyone in Washington to start acting like responsible adults. Health care reform? If the Democrats don't pass it now, their troubles will only deepen, as will popular distrust of the integrity and effectiveness of the national political process. Too easy on the president? Could be, but who/what else: Boehner? Pelosi? Palin? Gimme a break. In het Eindhoven's Dagblad, yesterday (in Dutch).

Wear That Helmet

2010-01-18T04:42:00.000-08:00

I had been looking for news updates on the crash by Matthias Kessler, the former Telekom and Astana pro trying to make a come-back after a two-year suspension for doping. He hit his head hard after a cat jumped out in front of him during a training ride on Majorca, fracturing his skull. Kessler is also known for his spectacular crash in the Tour a couple of years back, but he does not seem to have learned much, because it turns out he was not wearing a helmet last week. What are the chances, right? And how much can a helmet really do in such situations? The brain that cannot figure out these questions, can't see the point of a helmet, probably isn't worth the investment. One wishes, though, that a brain so indifferent to its own well-being would understand the stakes for family and friends. Just in case? Pretty please??

2009 numbers

2010-01-12T01:53:00.000-08:00

There was one more ride on New Year's Eve day, and it just pushed me over the 6900 mile limit for the year. I ended up with 6921 miles, almost half of which came from my commutes to Amsterdam and back. I did 98 of those rides last year, at 32, 34, or 36 miles a piece (depending on the route). I did no races, and fast rides overall have been much less prominent since moving to Holland. I've still wanted to go hard, on Mt. Ventoux back in July, for example, but it has been difficult to achieve the required intensity. The obvious solution is to go harder on the commutes. I'm never very ambitious on the way into the city, but there should be room for a few intervals on the way home. Before I could make much of this new year's resolution last week, we got treated to lake ice here (as well as more snow), so for the time being I'm working on skaters' legs (the ones that don't move well on the bike). This is not such a bad thing, as (speed)skating is weight-bearing activity that helps build power. Just as important is that it's a lot of fun to be out there with everyone else on the frozen lakes and canals. Can't count these miles, but there will be plenty of miles this coming year that do qualify.

Connecting The Dots

2010-01-06T12:54:00.000-08:00

Of course the past decade, if it indeed ended last week instead of a year from now, was the 9/11 decade. I just read a longish piece in the New Yorker where the author was trying to decide if the years since 2000 can be called anything (it came out in late December, but we get our New Yorker even later here in Holland than we used to get it in Milwaukee). One of the major lessons we were supposed to have learned from the attacks on 9/11 is that the various parts of the government charged with keeping the country safe need to share information about possible threats more readily and efficiently. This was why, as a result of the report of the 9/11 Commission, there came a new intelligence czar, at the expense of the influence--supposedly--of the director of the CIA, though maybe not of that of the director of the FBI. And it's why there emerged a new Department of Homeland Security, and a terrorism czar. And what are we forced to conclude in the wake of the failed bombing of the Northwest flight on Christmas Day? Responsible government agencies, individually in possession of all the information required, failed to connect the dots that should have kept Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab off that flight to Detroit. Today there's a op-ed in the New York Times by Thomas H. Kean and John Farmer Jr., respectively, the co-chairman and senior counsel of the 9/11 Commission, that makes for depressing reading. We don't seem to have come very far since July of 2004, when the Commission released its report, as witness the following section of the op-ed:

Despite the best efforts of the 9/11 commission and other intelligence reformers, budgetary authority over intelligence remains unaligned with substantive responsibility. Turf battles persist among intelligence agencies. Power is sought while responsibility is deflected. The drift toward inertia continues.

Government agencies are most likely to succeed when structure matches mission. With its many jurisdictional boundaries and its persistent bureaucratic fault lines, our current system, although greatly improved since 9/11, affords too many opportunities to let information slip, too many occasions for human frailty to assert itself.

The attempted Christmas bombing carries an eerie echo of the failures that led to 9/11 because those fundamental flaws persist. The challenge for President Obama and Congress is to resist superficial sound-bite solutions and undertake the harder task of reinventing our national security system.

Elsewhere in the piece the authors warn against descending into a political blame game, and it's probably right to avoid blaming the Bush administration for the lack of progress. Instead, what we seem to be dealing with first and foremost are systemic problems. It's one thing to say that government agencies should, and in theory can, share vital information relatively easily, it clearly is quite something different to move these huge, territorial, impersonal bureaucracies in practice. But there's no choice, and leadership can make a difference, one should hope. It's hard to avoid thinking, however, that we have here the equivalent of what the armed forces increasingly have to deal with too, namely the phenomenon of asymmetrical warfare. We're big and, on paper, very powerful in all kinds of ways. They, the terrorists, are small, but therefore more flexible, more able to engage the fight on their own terms, instead of ours. Even if we were able to prevent new Umar Farouk Abdulmutallabs from getting onto airplanes, al Qaeda will think of something new, something our huge bureaucracies will have a hard time adjusting to for all the stated reasons. I don't think it's hopeless. Just think of how the armed forces, in the course of the war in Iraq, have been able to shift to an approach that is much more suited for the kind of asymmetrical warfare terrorists and others engage in there. This counterinsurgency approach is military only in part; it's political too, addressing some of the deeper causes behind the insurgency. In our international anti-terror policy we'll have to do the same--or rather, we need to do more to prevent new Umar Farouk Abdulmutallabs from choosing al Qaeda, because some of this we already do. In Iraq, the armed forces, in their political work, worked closely with local leaders; in this global war on terror we'll also need to promote changes "on the ground" in countries that tend to produce Islamic radicals. Easier said than done, but essential work nonetheless.

Riding The Weather

2009-12-30T10:50:00.001-08:00

That's how Danny Chew, he of the Dirty Dozen en RAAM, used to describe his approach to riding on the road in Pittsburgh in the winter. It's a simple approach, essentially meaning that any decent day you get, you try to ride, because between November and April, there will be plenty indecent ones. Decent as in: no snow or ice, and temperatures above your personal tolerance level. Since we got back from Rome (where we had coffee outside, in the sun) a little over two weeks ago, I've had to use the same approach here in Holland. It had gotten cold while we were gone, and the first day back riding to Amsterdam, I got confirmation when I saw a cat walk across the ice outside of Weesp. Having done nothing on the trip for five days straight, I was determined to get a full week of riding to the city, even if it would be a sub-freezing one. In Milwaukee, I lowered my personal threshold to about 10 Fahrenheit (-12 Celsius), so I'd get through a little bit of Dutch frost. The second morning was cold and clear, and just like a few weeks earlier, I saw the sun rise early in the ride. This time, however, it looked more like a radioactive blood orange, which I'm sure had to do with the cold air. The third day was notable too, because as I was plodding my way across the railroad bridge outside of Weesp I got passed by a very sharp looking dude on a Fort cross bike. There was no way I was going to try to get on his wheel, and not just because on the way in I tend to take it easy. This looked like a guy who was in the middle of cross season. My streak ended on that third day, because on Thursday it snowed, the beginning of a week with more snow and generally sketchy conditions on the roads. I rode the weather for as long as I could--and I got back into it as soon as it was possible again, last weekend. I had another three-day streak that may well prove to be the conclusion to my riding in 2009. Saturday a Lage Vuursche coffee ride on the mountain bike, as it was still slick here and there. In one turn, in Hollandse Rading, the fat tires kept me upright where the skinny tires might have been inadequate. The next day, a regular winter Sunday ride, was a few degrees above freezing, and I got a real ride (= no coffee stop) because my Sunday guys, the ones who insist on riding through the woods this time of year, never made it. One of them took a hard fall on the icy trails, and they had to cut their ride short. So much for riding the tractor this time of year. After learning the news, I just continued my loop, riding 38 winter miles on just one banana. This was after a big dinner the night before--don't try this on snack food or you'll bonk horribly (to add another Danny term). Monday was sunny, calm, and again above freezing. It's the holidays, so no reason to pass up an opportunity like that. I did the hooky loop again, averaging 18.5. December 31 is tomorrow, so perhaps I can add a few more miles to the annual mileage I'll be calculating in a little less than 24 hours. Don't touch that dial!

Obama's First Year: The World As It Is

2009-12-22T13:14:00.000-08:00

It's been busy since the trip to Rome, and there has been snow, which has kept me off the bike and is making me cranky. But I did do an-op ed for the holiday editions of the GPD newspapers over the weekend, and I just saw that one paper has picked it up already. It's an evaluation of Obama's first year in office and addresses the criticisms from the right and left by arguing that given the challenges a year ago, he's done pretty well. Pretty well would already apply if all he had done was avoid big blunders or disasters, but I argue the president has done better. Perhaps more important, through his thoughtful, deliberate approach to the challenges he has faced, we can have some confidence that things will continue to be handled in a serious and pragmatic manner. This is quite a bit to hope for (in case you're disappointed now). Without the necessary votes in Congress, or a certain convergence of your plans with the interests of powerful, independently acting nations such as Russia and China (or Brazil, or India), not much is going to get done. So stop the timidity talk. It's called pragmatism, and it's a requirement for an American president like rarely before. Anyway, read all about it (in Dutch). I actually managed to bring cycling into the piece, by quoting my old cycling mentor and former legitimate amateur racer, Thijs, who casually used to say: "yes, go try do it" whenever you'd criticize the performance of one or other cyclist on tv.

My Own Private Hooky Ride

2009-12-08T07:20:00.000-08:00

It was calm, it was sunny, and it was not too cold. So even though I have stuff to do, I just had to take advantage, also because I'll be on the road for the next five days with no opportunity to ride or do much of anything else. So at 2:30 I sneaked out for a quick, hour and ten minute, 21 mile loop by way of Vreeland, Loenersloot, Baambrugge, Abcoude, and Weesp. It's all pretty, but you've got to love the little river Gein. All small ring, but still 18.3 average, which actually was a bit too fast given that I had just skated yesterday. It's good to ride after putting all that pressure on the legs, but it's important to be spinning. I was spinning today (39x15), but maybe just a little too fast. Must have been the weather. On the way into town I chased down my old neighbor Sabina, a year-round commuter, who had been skating this afternoon. She was riding the 10 miles home from the Amsterdam speed skating oval, because she knows the right way to enjoy yourself and stay in shape.

Surging in Afghanistan

2009-12-06T10:43:00.000-08:00

The New York Times reports on how President Obama came to his decision to send the extra troops in support of (a modified version of) General McChrystal's new strategy. Early on, the president came to the conclusion that the consequences of failure in the region are unacceptable. After that, it was primarily about finding an approach that has a chance to work in a reasonably short period of time so that the Western role in the country, at least the leading part of it, can be temporary. We're looking to turn things around in Afghanistan, a little like we helped turn things around in Iraq after 2006, so that there will be a chance for a more favorable development--for ourselves and for the people there. The former won't happen without the latter. That's all we can do, really: give ourselves and the people there a chance. There are too many uncertain factors, too much burdensome history in both places, to use words like "winning," or "resolution." At the same time, Iraq since 2006 has shown that apparently unstoppable downward slides also can be halted and partly reversed. What this NYT article is lacking is significant detail on how the president and his advisers defined the consequences of failure (presumably the result of a decision now to pull out of Afghanistan)--which doesn't mean that such a definition, such a discussion doesn't exist in the White House (or that the Times didn't do an article on this earlier). When I try to imagine the possible consequences of taking the advice of the many proponents of giving up on Afghanistan, I don't feel reassured at all that a withdrawal now would not make things worse for everyone except the Taliban and Al Qaeda.

Elaboration: What I forgot to highlight from the Times article is how it reports on Obama's dismay about the cost of all this: human and financial, and how conscious everyone around the table was of earlier cases of "escalating" a foreign war (Vietnam under Johnson being the classic case). Anyone who knows anything about, for example, the Vietnam case will understand how this is different, and how the term "escalation" is hardly appropriate here. Maybe I'll elaborate more on this last point later. In the meantime, the Times piece is worth reading in its entirety.

First Salt of the Season

2009-12-02T13:50:00.000-08:00

They put it on the bridges in Weesp, this morning. It had been clear last night, and I had been looking at the almost (one day short) full moon the whole way home from Amsterdam. When I got on my way today around 8am, it was mostly cloudy, and it didn't feel that cold. But better safe than sorry. Today was the first anniversary of my two falls due to iced-over bridges in downtown Amsterdam. It's that time of year. By now, I've pulled out all the winter gear, except for the balaclava. Hasn't been cold enough for that one. But I was happy this week to be wearing the thick tights and to have my gloves. This morning, looking over my shoulder as I was reaching the city, I could see the sun come up over some clouds just above the horizon, which was pretty; but when it was time to go home there was enough moisture in the air to make me take off my glasses. Wet weather, but not rain. In three weeks, the days will be getting longer again--not than today, but than December 21. It's something. Oh, and the whole way home I was thinking of how nice it would be to be able to bite into a big, juicy Qdoba burrito. No such luck in Holland, although rumor has it Chipotle is planning to expand into Europe. It would be nice to have that comfort food available, especially this time of year.

A Pacific President for a Pacific Century?

2009-11-27T04:45:00.000-08:00

That could have been the title for my op-ed this week in papers of the GPD syndicate. Obama has called himself America's first Pacific president, and much of what goes on in the world in the coming decades will be determined by what the U.S. and China do, and how much of it they manage to do together. Instead, however, we came up with something about Obama keeping alive America's China dreams. The idea was for a historical perspective on the U.S.-China relationship, so I talk about U.S. expectations with regard to China since the "Open Door" notes around 1900. Meanwhile the future of America's 20th century China expectations is here, and it's not clear if Americans are happy about the way things have come out. China has become quite powerful (really the second of only two powers with a genuinely global foreign policy) whereas the U.S. has lost ground. The piece naturally ends with President Obama's recent visit. Given his own troubles and China's ascent, he was wise to play it cautiously. The Chinese leadership has its hands full at home, not least because it's a dictatorship. Part of America's expectations of China has been that the country would become more like the U.S.; in the realm of basic freedoms, that continues to be an aspiration of a lot of Chinese. Hence our title: America can indeed keep its China dreams alive; hence also the wisdom of Obama's caution, because there is little that would anger the Beijing dictators more than by being challenged politically at home by a foreing power like the U.S. And an angry China is something the U.S. can afford less than ever before. Read all about it, in Dutch, in today's Eindhovens Dagblad.

November Morning Sun?

2009-11-21T14:40:00.000-08:00

I know there is such a thing as a harvest moon, the way the full moon looks at the end of the summer or early in the fall. When I lived in New Mexico I fully became aware of that one night when I rode home to White Rock, the suburb without a city, from my job at the lab in Los Alamos. I was headed east on Pajarito Rd when just before diving down the one-mile hill that's part of it (and where I once saw 57 m/h indicated on my computer--still my all-time speed record) I looked up to see this huge, bright yellow moon climb out from behind the Sangre de Christo mountains on the other side of the wide, Rio Grande valley. It was a stunning sight, one I looked for every time there was a full moon the remainder of my year there, but in vain. I was on the same bike yesterday morning as on that Friday evening in October 1994--my 1992 yellow Trek 2300: carbon for the main triangle, aluminum front and rear forks, still going strong--when I had a somewhat similar experience, but this time with the rising sun. It had been a wet and windy week. Wednesday it got so wild that even though I had braved the wind in the morning, I didn't feel like dealing with an even stronger wind on the way home, also because in the course of the day it had started to rain. Plus I would have had to get through it all after dark. Instead, I walked to the train, and came back to the city the next day using public transportation also. Thursday was a little calmer, and by the end of the day it had started to clear. Friday morning was plain bright, and it was light well before the sun had come up. So I wasn't thinking of the sun, the way I often do on a clear morning, probably also because there was no orange glow where I normally look for it leaving town. But approaching my turn-off onto the Diemen-Bussum highway, about 2.5 miles into my ride I just happened to glance over to the east, in part because that's where I was about to go. And there it was: a gigantic pinkish sun, only about one-fifth above the tree line between the Ankeveense plassen and the Ankeveense molen. I can't remember ever seeing the sun this wide, or this pink. There were only a few minutes before my route headed west again, along the Vecht toward Weesp. But in the meantime I was able to see it rise almost fully above the horizon, and it was a sight to behold. Partly to get another look I continued along the Vecht toward Muiden past Weesp, because on that section I'd have some easy glances eastward again. By that time, about ten minutes later, the sun was well clear above the horizon and quite a bit smaller, but it was still fairly easy to look at--not very bright at all, in spite of the clear morning. It's not something you expect to see, this time of year in Holland. But I did, and so it was a good week on the bike after all.

Agonizing over Aghanistan

2009-11-16T07:24:00.000-08:00

Two weeks back I did an op-ed arguing that it's inconceivable that the U.S. will not play a central role in Afghanistan and next-door Pakistan in the coming years. It was in response to reports from Washington that quite a few people (also in the military) were getting impatient with the president's decisionmaking process which has been ongoing since word leaked last September (I think it was) of General McChrystal's recommendation that in order to pursue a new strategy the U.S. send up to 40,000 extra troops. And the president still hasn't made a decision. In fact, last week he held what was reported to be his eight major session with his national security team on the issue, where originally just a handful were planned. From the reports on it, one could conclude that the president is particularly concerned about having a viable exit strategy, or even that ultimately the strategy will be an exit strategy (with the U.S. mostly handing things over to whatever Afghan partners within a few years). The meeting came on the heels of word that the U.S. ambassador in Kabul does not believe there's any point in sending more troops until the Karzai government cleans up its act. This is indeed a vital point, although I continue to wonder whether the Obama team considers bypassing the man and his cronies to be an option--along the lines of how in Iraq after 2006 we worked with local groups to get a handle on the Sunni insurgency and Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia. In any case, it's obvious that Obama is taking this issue more than a little seriously--that he's not "dithering," in other words--not least because U.S. and other soldiers (along with Afghan soldiers and civilians) will continue to be killed, regardless of which way he decides. That he's very aware of this aspect of the matter (just one of many, mind you, although perhaps the most burdening) you can see in a story on his visit to Arlington National Cemetery last week. Apparently, the photo at the beginning here was taken that day.

Down and Up in Early November

2009-11-08T08:37:00.001-08:00

What's different about November is that it's really fall, as in: wind, rain, and low temperatures. I had a rough time commuting last week thanks to these conditions combining a lot of the time. I got rained on twice (fortunately both days on the way home), had to battle gusty winds, and really needed the winter shoes, the jacket, and my gloves--not to mention my lights at the end of the day. I remember writing back in April and May how the commutes were getting so easy that they hardly felt like the real thing any more. Well, this past week I met the real thing again and I'm still adjusting psychologically. I'm still seeing a few other backpack-racing bike-commuters, but sightings are getting to be few and far between. Riding to work is going to be a long, hard slog on most days. Not always, as became clear this morning, on the Sunday ride. The weather had begun to calm down late yesterday afternoon, and last night was calm, clear, and cool. There was some fog around this morning, but in a lot of places the skies were blue. My Whisper Power group has switched to mountain bikes, but I'm dissenting and sticking to the (winter) road bike. It's not that I hate dirt riding so much (although I'd be perfectly happy never to mess with it), it's more that the route follows paths where you run into a lot of (dog) walkers, runners, and such. Meanwhile, we're rumbling through at a speed that's considerably higher than what the other people are doing, and this makes for interactions that from the walkers' side are grudgingly polite at best, and which often cross over into plain resentment and sometimes willful obstruction. Fast cyclists, road or dirt, are not popular in this country, and one can see why. In many places there just isn't enough room. Some racing types nonetheless act as if they're in the middle of some kind of very important race. But even if you're well-behaved you can easily scare people. Yesterday I read about a conflict over a planned bike path outside of Haarlem, where the walker/hiking community objects for exactly these reasons: cyclists ruin it for the rest of us in these pretty areas. It's the same on the road on nice weekend afternoons: you really can't expect to go for a careless, fast training ride at those times--too many other people on the bike paths and roads. On those days, it's best to be done with your ride by 11am or so. It's not that by riding the road bike where my friends take to the trails that I think I can fix this, or even that I think cyclists do not belong on these trails. As one of the members of the group said during our coffee stop (where I did meet up with the rest): we're mostly on bike paths, so we should not feel guilty or anything. It's that I just don't need this tension when I'm supposed to be enjoying myself, supposed to be riding around relatively carelessly. So I rode the biggest part of today's ride by myself, roughly tracing the off-road route on the perimeter on paved roads. It certainly was a good day for a road ride, in spite of the 2 degrees Celsius I saw indicated somewhere. Let's hope these kinds of days come around from time to time during the week also, because I'm not in the true hard-man mindset yet.

What's Nice About October

2009-10-28T09:13:00.001-07:00

For cyclists who like summer, not seasons, September is a bad month. First you hang on to summer for dear life, but it slips away gradually but surely. You may be able to put off wearing tights, but it's rarely warm any more, just adequate. Certainly on top you have to start messing with multiple layers again. The daylight at the end of the day especially gets ever shorter, and the anxiety goes up: in a few weeks it will be fall and all hell will have broken loose: rain, wind, cold, dark--and snow and ice won't be far behind. But then October comes, and even though there are those wet, windy days, it really can be quite nice still also. Yesterday and today we had temperatures close to 60 (15 celsius), and it was calm and only partly cloudy. I could not take advantage yesterday, but this morning I had an absolutely lovely commute. Nothing remarkable happened, just the realization that while it's really fall now, almost November even, and even though I was wearing tights and two long-sleeve jerseys on top, the riding was easy, smooth even. It helped that I was passing a major traffic jam on the freeway leading to Amsterdam, but the main thing was the calm weather. Of course I took the long way in (18 as opposed to 16 miles)--in these circumstances it hardly took any extra time. There will be plenty of other days between now and next May, but they can't take today away from me.

Figuring Out Afghanistan

2009-10-20T13:22:00.000-07:00

The president has stated that there's little point in deepening the U.S. commitment to Afghanistan while it remains unclear whether there will be a credible local partner. At the risk of defending once more a president many people would like to see bomb something other than the moon, that is a significant step. There will now be a second round to the Afghan presidential election, on November 7, although rumors that there may be a power-sharing deal between president Karzai and challenger Abdullah also persist. We'll have to see how this goes, but at least the fatally flawed first election round will not directly lead to a new Karzai term. It is still questionable if the West should even try to address the Afghan political situation through a central government, and last week there was a forceful, though not entirely persuasive, case that the presence of Western troops (regardless of what they do, or do not do) fuels Taliban terrorism. But once again I like Roger Cohen's take, today, who argues that even though the West has been in the country for eight years, a comprehensive approach to the Taliban-Al Qaeda challenge has only just begun, and that what's needed most now (not next month) is a clear statement from the president of U.S. "endurance" there. Early last spring, the new administration did announce a new regional strategy which it called "AfPak," because one can't really separate the predicaments of Afghanistan and Pakistan. It would certainly not help matters in Pakistan if the Taliban, following a U.S. withdrawal, took control of Afghanistan, again, and it would not help Western interests either. It would be weird if, after having put his own man, General McChrystal, in charge earlier this year, the president would now turn down his recommendation for a better counterinsurgency strategy. In a way, NATO allies like the Netherlands (in spite of the government's efforts to stave this off) have done just that: they're out of there, regardless of what Washington decides, regardless of what they're leaving behind, regardless of what will happen to the people who have come to depend on NATO protection. But I think the president is smarter and tougher than that. I think he'll give General McChrystal most of the things he needs. I just hope that together, the president and the general be utterly pragmatic. If a central government, if national institutions can be made to work effectively and with credibility--then, fine. But otherwise, we should help local people protect themselves, reconcile with outsiders where possible, and run their own lives.

Gloves

2009-10-14T06:53:00.001-07:00

I needed them, this morning. There was ice on the roofs of the bike sheds in our neighborhood, and the forecast had warned of maybe minus 3 degrees Celsius locally. Yesterday morning had been cool too. I had been rubbing my hands while riding, thinking that gloves would not be out of place. So today I grabbed a pair walking out the door. I also wore three long-sleeved layers on top, and my thickish, woolen Cannondale socks. And I was fine, though not warm the first half hour (and my toes were a little cold at the end of the ride). Getting the gloves out pretty much completes the transition to fall, which doesn't mean that it's all bad. The last three morning commutes, for example, have all been cool, crisp, and sunny affairs. Both yesterday and today I could see the sun climb out from behind our lake, the Spiegelplas, and the Ankeveense Plassen. A big, orange ball for about fifteen minutes before you can't look at it without blinding yourself. It's also the time when the summer bike commuters are disappearing, either because they don't like the cooler weather or because they don't like messing with lights. There's another step I'll have to take soon: clipping on the headlight and flashers. Then, it might as well be winter.

Update: It turned into a near-symmetrical riding day, because on the way home (no gloves) as I rode into our town, the sun had turned into a big, orange ball again, only now it was about to go down behind the Western horizon. Or rather, the Southwestern horizon--no longer the direction of Abcoude, but more Baambrugge, maybe even Loenersloot. The days are getting short. The only reason it wasn't dark yet at seven was that it was a virtually cloudless sky.

The Nobel Peace Prize Matters ...

2009-10-10T13:00:00.000-07:00

I agree with a lot of the reactions to yesterday's news: premature (in his response, the recipient himself implied this too), the third Non-Bush Prize, at least, in less than a decade, a joke that devalues the tradition. A lot of fuss because a bunch of Norwegian politicians happen to sit on a large endowment and like to influence international politics with it. But it occurred to me that the fact that just about everyone, in every part of the world, felt the urge to comment (often quite vehemently) on this award that shows that the Nobel Peace Prize really is a kind of universal award, the property, if you like, of all of us. If people didn't see it that way, didn't think they had a stake in it, they would not respond in this way. The award's long tradition, and its many distinguished winners, has played a big role in this, of course. The committee has made interesting choices in recent years. On the whole, however, I wonder if there hasn't been too much Norwegianism. An eagerness to lead at the expense of being satisfied with sticking to more traditional choices. An eagerness also to try to, shall we say, encourage the United States to be more like the rest of civilization (i.e. Western Europe)? Americans will resist those calls, because they're not, and never will be, West European social democrats. Western Europe's reach in other parts of the world will remain equally limited. So let me correct myself: the Nobel Peace Prize matters, but mostly to Norway, the EU, and UN diplomats and bureaucrats; it is the property of a certain international community, those who subscribe to an internationalist, semi-collectivist, developmental ethos. They're influential, not just because of the Nobel Peace Prize, and they do have some good ideas. But in the grand scheme of things, they're probably a minority. And it remains to be seen to what extent the latest American winner of their award is going to conform to their way of seeing the world. He is, after all, the president of the United States.

Rain

2009-10-07T12:41:00.000-07:00

It had to happen, because I can't really remember the last time I really got rained on (except for that late summer coffee ride) on a commute or a training ride. (Can I still call those non-commutes "training rides" now that I never go to a race any more? What would I be training for, exactly?). Last summer, after getting to Holland from Milwaukee, I got the nice bike dirty more than once when the weather was still supposed to be nice. This summer, certainly by late September, however, we began seeing news reports about drought conditions in parts of this swamp-like country. It actually was not coming down when I left the house a little before eight this morning, though the roads were plenty wet. Before I started getting it from above, I had already gotten a little wet (one shoe) from several large puddles I was forced to ride through. Two-thirds of the way the real rain started, and by the time I got to work I was plain wet. The heat hasn't been turned on yet in my building, so at the end of the afternoon I had to put the still damp stuff back on. The socks were the worst, but the conditions outside a pleasant surprise. It didn't really rain at all as I rode out of Amsterdam, and the rest of the way all I had to deal with was a light drizzle. I had checked the radar and hurried over to my bike, because it was clear that at the very end of the day some real rain would be moving through. I was able to watch that from inside the house. Other reason why this wasn't the real thing yet: it was sixties, for crying out loud. That's about ten degrees away from warm rain, the kind it's a privilege and a joy to ride in.

That Unresolved Afghan Election Mess

2009-10-05T02:10:00.001-07:00

I have been wondering when he would give his side of things, and the other day American Peter Galbraith (deputy special UN representative in Afghanistan until he got fired last month because he called the fraudulent elections by their full name) did so in the Washington Post. A key passage:

Afghanistan's presidential election, held Aug. 20, should have been a milestone in the country's transition from 30 years of war to stability and democracy. Instead, it was just the opposite. As many as 30 percent of Karzai's votes were fraudulent, and lesser fraud was committed on behalf of other candidates. In several provinces, including Kandahar, four to 10 times as many votes were recorded as voters actually cast. The fraud has handed the Taliban its greatest strategic victory in eight years of fighting the United States and its Afghan partners.

And yet, the UN seems to want to hand President Karzai his victory, and the U.S. may be leaning that way too. His government is corrupt, inept, and disliked by a growing number of people in the country. Should we stick with Karzai; and what would be alternatives?

I recently did a lecture on the early years of South Vietnam, particularly the relationship between the U.S. and South Vietnamese leader Ngo Dinh Diem, and I have to say that the West's problems with Karzai look eerily similar. For one thing, President Obama has called Afghanistan a "war of necessity"--just like Eisenhower believed South Vietnam was a vital U.S. interest. Also just like "Vietnam" wasn't really about that country, it's not about Afghanistan itself today. We're trying to create a viable government there, able to stand on its own feet, able, especially, to keep the enemy at bay, because of a greater cause: the war on Al Qaeda and similar groups. And maybe Karzai is just like Diem: an authentic Afghan leader genuinely hostile to the Taliban and Al Qaeda but also contemptuous of ignorant Westerners trying to impose their vision for his country's future. In that case, working through Karzai really isn't going to work: in addition to being corrupt and ineffective, he would also reject genuine collaboration. The big problem in Vietnam, also for Kennedy, was that there did not seem to be an alternative for Diem, even though Diem himself turned out to be a failure. The South Vietnamese state needed to be built up because South Vietnam was designated a vital domino in the Cold War. In hindsight, however, the flaw seems to have been this designation of (South) Vietnam as a vital battlefield in the global Cold War.

Is there an alternative today for Karzai? Do we have to let him "win" this sham of an election? The answer may have to come from two additional questions: how vital is Afghanistan really to our current transnational concern (internationally operating, fanatically anti-Western terror groups); how vital is it to build a cohesive Afghan state under an effective central government? I'm not prepared yet to argue that we should just let Karzai fend for himself if he wants to rule the country in his own way--that we should basically give up on Afghanistan the country and instead focus on fighting Al Qaeda and similar groups directly. I think the cure there might be much worse ultimately than the remedy, because it might well lead to a re-run of events of the 1990s after the departure of the Soviets from Afghanistan: civil war, Taliban rule, Al Qaeda sancturary. Plus, having been there for almost eight years now, the West owes the people of Afghanistan.

I'm wondering if there might not be a middle way, namely working with local, tribal authorities, few of whom are looking forward to a return of Taliban rule. Bypass the central government, at least until it becomes credible, and direct resources to the regional and local level. One way in which Karzai (or whoever would succeed him) could become credible is to run an honest election and operate an effective, transparent government. It will be a while before that happens. Until then, we'll have to think of something else. President Obama, of course, is in the middle of his second big re-evaluation of Afghanistan policy in less than a year. I haven't seen many indications of where he's leaning with regard to Karzai and the current election mess, but I can't imagine that he and his advisers aren't thinking very hard about alternatives to especially the current political approach to that country. As we've learned in Vietnam, no military effort is going to mean very much in the longer run without a viable political strategy.

Fall's Really Here

2009-10-02T12:53:00.000-07:00

How do I know? First day in tights, that's how. It was only supposed to be between 12 and 15 Celsius (50s) today, and I had to be on the road by 8 am. Just getting over a cold, it did not seem necessary to push it. Also wore three layers on top, two with long sleeves, one turtle necked. And riding out I was glad I had put it all on. It's nothing to be particularly mournful about, of course. We've had a very decent spring, summer, and September, and it's not as if winter has suddenly arrived. Plus, there may be no reason any more to take the clippers to the legs--a big time and hassle saver. Also got rained on a little on the way home, a very thin drizzle. To mark the occasion we decided to turn on the heat for the first time since May or so.

Give Obama More Time ...

2009-10-01T08:32:00.000-07:00

... the title above my op-ed as it appears today in de Gelderlander (in Dutch). The Washington Post's Richard Cohen takes another position, but then there's also the New York Times's Cohen, Roger. As a column, Richard Cohen's piece is quite good; but as an analysis/policy recommendation, I like Roger Cohen's much better. For one thing, he knows something about Iran, having spent a good deal of time there recently.

No Obama Sell-Out

2009-09-29T02:12:00.000-07:00

This is what I wrote in an op-ed for the GPD papers (Netherlands), late last week. I haven't seen the piece on-line anywhere yet, but when it does turn up somewhere, I'll link to it. The thing is, he's trying to institute significant change, and that takes time, especially because an American president today is much less powerful than his prominence in the news would suggest. There is America's reduced financial prowess, there's obstruction from great powers such as China and Russia, there's domestic pressures (protectionism!), and there are those enemies of the U.S.--unpredictable, and in most cases irreconcilable to any kind of international order. But the critics are mostly wrong (or premature): implied in the criticisms from the right is that a foreign policy more akin to that of George W. Bush would be better. But which Bush foreign policy do they mean? The unilateralism of the first term? What did that get us, exactly? Or the milder version of Bush's second term? The latter was certainly moving in the direction of what Obama is trying to do now. Yes, the president did drop his predecessor's missile-defense plans for Eastern and Central Europe--but he hasn't dropped missile defense at all. In a way, charges that he is too soft can't be rebutted, because his approach so far does in many areas emphasize talking instead of bombing. But what about all the dead Taliban and Al Qaeda commanders in Somalia, Afghanistan, and Pakistan? What about his increase in troop levels in Afghanistan during the first months in office? Let's not forget that we're still only eight months into this presidency. There is no telling what the administration might do if the current approach fails to produce the anticipated results in certain cases. But let's not forget either that on almost every tough foreign policy problem today--North Korea, Iran, Israel v. Palestinians--the more muscular alternatives out there look very unappetizing.

Better Commute

2009-09-25T14:08:00.000-07:00

Another calm, mild fall day, perfect to ride home the long way (by way of IJburg and Muiden, instead of Weesp--this adds two miles). Had the wind at my back on the little climb up the Nescio bridge, and on the way down I put it in the big ring. With my new chain and cassette, I can use 53x19 without anything rubbing (on the old set-up, only the 17 and bigger would work well). I kept it there all the way into Muiden, doing probably around 20, but as I entered it someone passed me. Yes, another good rider, on a nice bike again. I got on his wheel as we rode through this little city slowly, and I stayed there as he accelerated leaving town. There, we passed another racing-bike-little-back-pack-commuter, but he did not get on the train. My guy didn't try to drop me, which given the nice, straighth and smooth bike path we were on might have been tough. But he did make me work harder than I do on my own on this bike. At the turn-off (Keverdijk) I thanked him for the ride, but he happened to go my way, so I sat on his wheel for two more miles. Then, it turned out he was also going to Nederhorst den Berg, my town. He lives on the outskirts, and I didn't get his name, but we did chat a little at the end. He's about to stop riding to work for the season and will switch to speedskating. He's in the local club. I've met others who are members, so maybe that should be my club on the ice too. I do need a club to make sure I get to the ice at least once a week.

Obama Snub to the Poles and Czechs?

2009-09-21T03:32:00.001-07:00

They're changing the missile-defense plans in Washington, and the Wall Street Journal doesn't like it one bit. I'm not sure if I agree with the wider implications the paper draws. More later.

My Commuter Excuses For Not Going Fast

2009-09-14T11:14:00.000-07:00

They came in handy today, because on the way home I got dropped plain and simple by a fellow commuter. The excuses I'm talking about are my buttery 1992 carbon Trek 2300 frame, and my 28-wide bullet-proof tires. Other excuses I've gotten rid of one by one. The guy passed me just outside of Amsterdam, near the Nieuwe Diep, I got on his wheel, and together we continued South along the Amsterdam Rijnkanaal. We passed a guy out on a training ride, but he did not get on the train. I was on the wheel for about two miles, working, but not suffering, when we had to go through the little chicane after the river Diem. I dropped back to leave a little room, because you can't really see what's coming from the other side there, but my lead man powered through it so that I came out of the chicane about twenty meters back. I closed the gap, with some difficulty, but the guy had really decided to increase the pressure, and suddenly I was on the limit, a feeling I haven't experienced much on the bike this year. I didn't stay there for very long. It was hard, the legs had not quite recovered from the Sunday ride, and I was beginning to taste again the fig I had put in my mouth when I left work, about six miles back. And then there were the two bike-related excuses. I let him go. He didn't get too far ahead, because up and over the Amsterdam Rijnkanaal bridge, and into and through the city of Weesp I continued to see him ahead of me, the last time as I was entering the Hoogstraat and he was just crossing the bridge across the Vecht river there. He may have been stronger. He certainly looked very good on the bike (a much more recent Trek model with skinny tires), and he had shaved legs (as well as a smaller backpack). But I'm sure that if this had been last week and I had been on the Klein instead, I would have stayed on his wheel happily, maybe even traded a pull or two with him. As it was, he made me go through the kind of experience--the point where you decide to be dropped--I've only experienced behind cars and mopeds this year.

Louis Rosen, R.I.P.

2009-09-14T04:34:00.001-07:00

Earlier this month, nuclear scientist Louis Rosen died at the age of 91 in Albuquerque, NM. I knew him a little bit in the mid-1990s during my time at Los Alamos National Laboratory. I was a research assistant at the Center for National Security Studies (dissolved by the lab's leadership immediately following the Gingrich revolution in late 1994), where Rosen was an associate at the time. At CNSS he did policy-related work, but he was also still involved with the lab project that was his primary accomplishment: the huge atom smasher built during the 1960s right along the main access road to the lab, the so-called "truck route." I once interviewed him at his office there for a newspaper piece I was doing on the lab in the post-Cold War era. One of the things Rosen stood out for during my time at the lab was that he was one of the few people left who had come to Los Alamos during World War II to be part of the Manhattan Project. I don't remember much of our interview, but I do remember his account of that cross-country trip. If I can find the time, I'll dig out the tape I made of our conversation.

More U.S. "snub" to the Poles

2009-09-13T12:47:00.000-07:00

Unlike NRC-Handelsblad commentator Juurd Eijsvoogel the other day, the Economist does not believe Washington acted deliberately when it sent a low-level delegation to the World War II commemorations two weeks ago. In its current issue it says the U.S. "botched" this thing. The magazine does believe U.S. - (East)European ties are less close, but there's no talk of an American plan to "encourage" countries such as Poland to develop a more stable relationship with Russia (other than the administration's desire for a "reset" in its own ties with Moscow). Most of this is about Russia: the U.S. (and many other NATO countries) would like to have a more businesslike relationship with Don Putin, one in which Moscow may be willing at times to help advance Western interests in places such as the Persian Gulf or the Korean peninsula. Poland (and also the Baltic states, for instance) want NATO to prepare itself to resist--militarily, if necessary--Russian efforts to regain a sphere of influence in Eastern Europe. You most certainly won't get the former if you do a lot of the latter, but when you're NATO you're also supposed to be an alliance that works for all of its members. Those members, in turn, should of course try to keep a cool head, even when they're next door to a place like Putin's Russia. So what else is new? Discussion, divisions even, in the NATO alliance? These always get worked out one way or another, don't they?

Plodding v. Glee

2009-09-12T03:05:00.000-07:00

A faithful reader from Pittsburgh writes the following:

You write of your commute and your glee at using a somewhat lighter more efficient bike and i just yesterday had exactly the opposite sensation. i showed up at 550 am for a ride with 3 more novice riders. i hadnt really ridden for 5 wks due to whatever mysterious illness had gripped me. I showed up on my ancient mtn bike and spent the 20-25 mile ride trying desperately to hang with these mortals, who lead interesting lives and therefore neglect to put in the required time and effort to rise to the meager level of fitness required of a true pmvc member. I got in a much greater workout than i would have on my road bike as i was carrying at least 10 extra pounds and one always rides harder when faced with the humiliation of being dropped.
So i am thinking of saving the madone for only those rides that require its lightness and perhaps looking to buy a cheap , heavy single speed for my short solo rides within the city , or for use with more recreational riders...

I think we're talking here about the difference between knowing what's good for you (riding the heavier, fender-equipped bike when speed isn't a requirement) and really enjoying a ride ("glee"). I'm afraid that since that last post, two weeks ago, I've become quite partial to glee. A week ago I noticed that the old rear wheel on my commuter (dating back to my days in Pittsburgh in the late 1990s) was out of true. Monday morning before riding to work I quickly tried to fix it, but instead pulled one spoke so tight that it cracked the rim. (I think this rim was ready to die anyway). So for two days I got to ride a really stiff, nice-running bike to Amsterdam: my 2001 aluminum Klein Quantum Race. It's my back-up and winter bike, has a rear fender, and I use 25-wide Gatorskins on it, but if I had to, I would still enter a race on this bike. Yesterday I had my commuter back, with a brand-new rear wheel, and a new cassette and chain. Compared to the way the bike used to run, there was a big change (it pays to replace a chain and cassette from time to time, especially on a year-round commuter!), but compared to the Klein, the 28-wide tires felt as if they were glued to the road, and the 1992 carbon frame felt like butter. For the Klein's sake it's better not to commute on it, because it would take a beating on these rides. And it's probably good for me too, having to work a little harder. It's certainly been nice not to flat even once the whole year thanks to the heavy-duty commuter tires. The problem--I've figured out while writing this--is that most of my riding now comes in the form of these commutes. Most of my riding, in other words, is of the plodding kind. I think that's what I felt yesterday when I got back on the good old Trek. Now I'm not even sure anymore if it's really good for me, physically or mentally.

U.S. "snub" to the Poles--continued

2009-09-11T12:25:00.000-07:00

An interesting perspective on this supposed disrespect the Obama administration showed its faithful ally Poland last week, when it sent a low-level delegation to the commemorations of the start of World War II. NRC-Handelsblad commentator Juurd Eijsvoogel today (in Dutch) suggests that there was actually a plan behind Washington's approach, that this was part of a strategy to encourage the Poles (and other East and Central European allies) to find a way to live with big, bad neighbor Russia, instead of primarily relying on the U.S., an ally living far away. It's not that Washington is preparing to sever its ties with the (East) Europeans, but more that the Americans are taking "the next logical step" twenty years after the fall of the Berlin Wall. Presumably he means by this that the U.S. is "normalizing" what during the Cold War had become an abnormally close American relationship with the old continent. That's reminiscent of what Eisenhower and Dulles were hoping to achieve during their first term in office (1953-1957) by way of the ill-fated European Defense Community. Eisenhower and Dulles hoped that the U.S. military involvement (certainly the large U.S. military presence) in Europe could be temporary, that the Europeans could gradually take responsibility again for their own defense (backed, to be sure, by the NATO alliance with the U.S.). That proved to be an illusion. We'll see if Obama and friends will be more successful today. In trying to take this "next logical step," according to Eijsvoogel, they're doing the Poles a service. It's not, he seems to imply, as if the U.S. will maintain its current commitment to Europe's security until the end of days. It opens up an intriguing long-term perspective: America's natural involvement with Europe is really quite distant. The Cold War was an aberration; now that it's over, gradually the U.S. will revert back to a more distant posture. Also given Washington's other headaches in the world today, that's not such a weird proposition. IJsvoogel's conclusions are a bit optimistic: first he says that friend Putin obliged, last week in Gdansk, through his "reassuring" appearance (we'll see about that); second, there's more than a little wishful thinking in the following: "And with all this, an important step forward has been made on the road to a Europe that's really united, free, and secure. With thanks this time to an America that's quiet." Still, it's a column that does what a good column is supposed to do: making you think by way of an original idea.

Late Summer Coffee Ride

2009-09-05T05:40:00.000-07:00

There was a need to catch up on a summer of riding separately, and so an out-of-season coffee ride was scheduled for this morning. As I stepped out of the house, it started raining, even though I could see plenty of clear spots around. It took about four miles of drizzle to ride out from under this grey, curtain-like cloud. It probably also got blown off my course a little. So the roads were wet, but it really wasn't bad, actually quite pleasant thanks to the Northwesterly tailwind. 14 degrees Celcius at 9:26 in Loosdrecht. I think I saw the guy with the dog again near the Hilversum airport, and of course the Sukkel butcher shop in Maartensdijk had customers in it. The girl at the Vuursche Boer brought out our order right away, but she had forgotten how it goes after all this time. (First round should be: two koffie verkeerd, two apple pie, one with whipped cream). Much impressed by the Ventoux stories of the Utrecht delegation (times ranging last Saturday from 1h28', to 1h33' and 1h38'). Windy ride back together to the Vecht river, and we wondered what ever happened to the campaign to prevent the Polder Bethune (near Tienhoven) from being flooded. All the home-made signs have been gone for months now, but I can't find any really recent information. After the turn-off at the Vecht river, all continued to be well with the Coffee Ride world, because I soon ran into the old guy on the tandem. Although, he was alone, riding a regular bike, and he barely looked at me, even though I was wearing long sleeves on what by then was turning into a pretty nice day.

That American "Snub" to the Poles

2009-09-05T03:46:00.001-07:00

Earlier this week I wondered why the U.S. sent such a low-level delegation (led by National Security Adviser James Jones) to the Warsaw commemoration of the start of World War II where Chancellor Merkel and Prime-Minister Putin came to represent their countries. My best guess: the administration decided that this wasn't really their commemoration, just like the U.S. back in 1939 didn't really believe that the threat of war in Europe was its problem. We weren't there back in 1939, so let's keep a low profile now also. (I know, doesn't really make sense).

More Own Horn Tooting

2009-09-04T14:43:00.000-07:00

Two more issues of my op-ed on Obama and the health care reform mess: the Eindhovens dagblad yesterday, and the Gelderlander last Tuesday. Meanwhile, two comments on the version I mentioned earlier in the August 27 issue of the Brabants Dagblad, both dissenting!

Early Fall Commuting

2009-09-04T04:09:00.000-07:00

Rain, wind, long sleeves, and meanwhile the Vuelta on tv. It's definitely early fall, although we're supposed to get more summer days next week. First day of class today, and approaching Weesp, it just did not feel right to ride in the long way, even though that's only two extra miles and I had time. I payed the price a few minutes later, riding along the Amsterdam Rijnkanaal. Three schoolkids came toward me using the whole road and they never moved over. I think it was because they had the sun in their eyes, and, of course, because on this little road virtually without cars they pay no attention whatsoever to anything except themselves. But still, at the last minute I had to steer into the grass to stay clear of them. (Yes, I did yell something angry and profane). I was motoring pretty well, partly thanks to a good tailwind, but also because this summer I've continued to lighten my load on these rides. Last year, I started out with a front fender and mudflap--but it broke in two, last spring. I also used bring a lock, but now I keep one at work, in the bike basement. And I had a seatpost rack, which I used to carry the slippers I wear to get from the showers (in the basement) to my shoes (in my fifth floor office). But last week I got a nice new Pinarello Granfondo backpack at a sale at my new bikeshop, which is not only much nicer than my old pack bought years ago at the Gap, but which also has enough room for my slippers. So I've also taken the rack off. As with the two earlier simplifications, the bike now handles much better. Now, I only have two excuses left for not hammering to and from work: my 28-wide commuter tires, and the fact that the drive train components on this 1992 Trek 2300 are so old, that I really can't get it in a comfortable gear in the big ring. But it feels pretty nice, riding without all that extra weight. So nice that I almost felt like chasing after the 7-8 man group I saw riding out of Amsterdam as I was about to enter it. They were obviously going for a serious training ride, and for a moment I was quite jealous.

The West and Russia

2009-09-01T06:32:00.000-07:00

So here's what I've been saving all this time: in an interview last July with the Dutch paper NRC Handelsblad, the Obama administration's ambassador to NATO, Ivo Daalder, said that NATO will be able to expand while maintaining a good relationship with Russia, just like in the 1990s. (The english translation I linked to here differs from the Dutch original in the print version from the July 4-5 issue of the paper, although in both the suggestion is made that NATO expansion does not cause problems with Russia). This is of course not what has happenend. On the contrary, NATO expansion is widely cited as one of the main reasons why relations between Russia and the West have deteriorated the past decade. So what is Daalder saying? What does his answer suggest about the Obama administration's view of relations with Russia? Well, Daalder will speak in The Hague this Thursday, so maybe I'll have an opportunity to ask. But think it basically conveys a pretty hard-nosed view of how one should deal with Moscow, not too different from the way Putin approaches his foreign policy. We'll do business where we can, and that's important, but we're not going to worry too much about how you feel about actions on our part that you know are not meant to threaten you. "Hitting the re-set button" in relations with Moscow doesn't signify a fresh start, at least not in the basic approach. Russia, the administration seems to say, is important, but there are also clear limits to the kind of relationship we can have. Vice president Biden's comments this summer (about Russia's backwardness) are also revealing in this respect. They seem to suggest that because of the way the country is being run under Putin, Russia just won't see the world the way the U.S. and the Europeans (in spite of all their differences) do. This has consequences for what we can achieve with Russia, the administration seems to have concluded. In some areas we just should not even try to satisfy Russian demands, because they're not reasonable, and Moscow can't be satisfied anyway because it sees the West primarily as a rival although not with the same intensity as during the Cold War. NATO expansion is an example, and as Daalder continued in the interview: independent countries have fundamental right to choose their alliances. Of course, this doesn't mean that Georgia and Ukraine will enter the alliance any time soon. A more realistic, hard-nosed policy still does not need to be a stupid policy. Allowing these two countries in soon would certainly anger Russia needlessly, and so I doubt if there will be much action there in the near future (the emphasis is likely going to be on all the things these two countries still need to do to meet the criteria for membership). You can see something similar on the issue of the (anti-Iran) missile defense system planned for deployment in the Czech Republic and Poland, where there are rumors that the administration may put that on hold. The Poles aren't happy, just as they're unhappy with the low-level delegation Washington sent to the World War II commemorations this week where many other countries (Germany, Russia) sent their heads-of-government. But whether that's in any way connected to U.S. Russia policy, I'm not sure. Something for a different post anyway.

Own Horn Tooting

2009-08-27T05:05:00.000-07:00

That's when there's suddenly time for blogging, when a new op-ed has been published (this one about the political turnmoil this summer in the U.S. over de Democratic plans to reform health care; in Dutch, as usual). But I'm still planning to write about U.S.-Russian relations (the post I announced weeks ago), and once that bottleneck is behind us, I should write more frequently. I do still have things to say, it's just that I also have lots of things to do.

First Encounters with Mt. Ventoux

2009-08-05T13:29:00.000-07:00

It is a legendary climb, but I had never done it. In cycling literature--certainly in Holland, and most certainly this year--you can read pages and pages about the history of people on this old volcano, often accounts by those for whom getting to the top was some kind of personal quest. We saw lots of them, last week, and quite a few really should not have been there and probably never made it to the top. They were most likely Dutch, Belgian, or French, because cars with license plates of these three countries dominated the roads, cars often with relatives of riders stopping every mile or so to shout encouragement. We, on the other hand, did it by ourselves, two-and-a-half times. We were staying in Bédoin--where the most difficult and infamous ascent begins--had all week, and so we took it one step at a time. On the warm-up day, we rode to Sault--the lavender capital of the world, where the easiest of the three climbs up the hill begins--by way of the quiet and scenic Gorges de la Nesque (north side). That day we climbed as far as the Chalet Reynard, the place where, if you go on, you enter the rocky moonscape for which the Ventoux may be known the best. But we were on a warm-up ride, just getting back on the bike after a few days of traveling and trying to get used to the kind of non-stop climbing required here, so we hung a left and descended toward Bédoin over lots and lots of paint applied just days prior by Tour de France fans. 45 miles was plenty. We did less the next day, about 37, but worked much harder, riding to the third Ventoux town, Malaucene, by way of "the other Col de la Madeleine," and riding to the top from there. This makes it sound easy, but it actually takes work. There is a steep section in the middle--one kilometer marker warned of a 12% grade--which I found to be the hardest climbing of the entire week. I lost my rhythm there. Before that, I had been motoring happily most of the time in either the (39x) 22, 24, or 26. Those steep kilometers in the middle, however, made me unhappy in the 28. The length of the thing made the final two kilometers (steep again) tough also. This being a training ride, we forgot to reset our computers at the start, but I estimate it took me about 1 hour and 35 minutes. Descending the mountain (we completed the loop back to Bédoin) you have to pay attention: lots of cyclists coming up and going down, lots of cars doing the same. You really want to maintain a significant margin for error because there are lots of folks who could make one. On day three it was time for the timed expedition from Bédoin. We warmed up by climbing the little Madeleine, first from Bedoin, then from the Malaucene side. Around 8:30 we were at the line, underneath the plaque for the builder of the road up Mt. Ventoux. The entire way up I tried to keep a balance between pushing and pacing myself. It can be windy the last couple of miles, and you also have to contend with the fact that in the long middle section through the woods, there's really only one switchback where you could take a little breather. The rest is pretty much up, up, and up at a pretty good grade. I had it in the 28 shortly after the steep section started, but was able to turn it over fairly smoothly. It was work, but at the same time I wasn't really breathing very hard. Two kilometers or so before the Chalet Reynard, after only having passed people, I suddenly found someone on my wheel. He must have come up from behind, and he was breathing very hard. It made me wonder if I was trying hard enough. But there was still a good ways to go, and I felt I was going at at least 85%. It was hard to gauge. Up high, the wind wasn't bad at all, and my companion and I picked it up a little when the grade leveled off somewhat after the Chalet. Even though he had been yo-yo-ing off my wheel, with about three K to go he took the lead, and then slowly started pulling away. It wasn't an attack or anything (he kept looking back to see what happend to this dude who had been leading him in such a relaxed way), but for some reason I did not follow. The final section is steeper again, and by then you've been climbing for a while, but I still wasn't breathing hard and didn't really feel I was suffering. And yet, I would not pick it up another notch. The same thing happened when a little later a young rider passed me who was spending about an equal amount of time in and out of the saddle. That would have been the way to make up some ground, and somewhere I must have had it in me. Of course, the top wasn't very far anymore, so the time gained would have been little. That went through my mind also. But the fact remains that rather suddenly I wasn't moving so well any more. I suppose the Ventoux got me a little. So that's how I got to the top, in an even one hour thirty-six minutes, not out of breath, not terribly tired, and somewhat dissatisfied. A faster time is possible. How? Knowing the mountain, having done the climb, should help. Then, getting the body more used to this kind of climbing should also make a difference. Other than that, you just have to train hard, go to the limit on a regular basis, preferably in races. Since moving to Holland, I haven't raced, and I have done very few of the kind of tough training rides I used to get on a weekly basis in Milwaukee. We considered making another attempt on our final day in Bédoin, but then it would have looked as if this actually matters. So instead we chose to do a big, seventy-mile loop all around the mountain, by way of the South side of the Gorges de la Nesque (deserted, rough, and very scenic), Sault, more rough side roads, then around the back of Mt. Ventoux, and back into Malaucene by way of a quiet little up-and-down road through Veaux. Along the way, we agreed that if we had made another attempt that day, it would probably not have resulted in a better time. And it did feel nice, there in the Toulourenc valley behind the mountain, just to be able to let the legs move freely again, without gravity constantly pulling you back.