August 19, 2025

Tuesday. Left a little after ten. Blacksmith. A bright summer day, breezes out of the northeast. Some clouds, here and there, of the stretched-out kind. Toward de Bilt and following the F28 rapid bike route through it and Bilthoven, before choosing the rhythm of the small bricks of the Julianalaan. Eventually back on the route, as far as the railroad crossing, then toward Wieksloterweg and Lage Vuursche. Nature and farms beginning to look a little dry. It has been a while since we had some real rain. Lage Vuursche back to the railroad crossing (concrete trail alongside the dunes from Wieksloterweg), then past the museum toward Zeisterspoor. Dodeweg and past Leusden, left at de Mof. Thriving sunflowers on the edge of the fields after that; split up at Scherpenzeel. Amerongse berg was nice and quiet, with just a few passing cars spewing fumes. On the levee toward Wijk bij Duurstede preparations underway for the coming reconstruction job. The views during those ten kilometers are mostly unspoiled; it will take a while before the reinforced levee will be part of it again (getting used to the bigger dike is still a work-in-progress around Jaarsveld). The first closure already in place at Wijk, so right and through town toward Wijkersloot, Dwarsdijk, Werkhoven (Hollendewagenweg). Fruit ready to be picked and for sale at many farms. Achterdijk to Koningslaan, Kromme Rijn, and into the city. The news dominated by yesterday's White House meetings, which at least weren't acrimonious. Instead, they managed to float above reality, mostly detached from it. Talk of security guarantees is great, and (currently) theoretical U.S. willingness to be part of it too, except that there is no indication that Moscow will accept, for example, Western troops in Ukraine or that the West, especially the current U.S. administration, is ready to force acceptance (if that's even possible). Putin never ceases to point out that to him Ukraine is a fake state, with no right to an independent existence. This goes back to the beginning of his presidency. Bringing the country back to within Russia's fold is the main goal behind the war. Another goal ("root cause") is reversing NATO influence in the former Soviet sphere of influence. It's also something he keeps talking about and so to get Russia to accept the opposite--NATO influence in Ukraine in all but in name--is going to require an outright defeat in the war (but how does a nuclear great power lose a war?), a coup, or perhaps the kind of outside pressure on the country that threatens a regime collapse. That last option is the most realistic, but it's still very far-fetched. It would in any case require that especially the U.S. seriously expands and intensifies its range of sanctions on Russia, its leaders, and its friends, and that military aid to Ukraine (also critically coming from the U.S.) gets stepped up. An indication of whether any of this might be in the cards would be if the people around that table yesterday could agree to use seized Russian assets in the West to aid Ukraine. It would have to be made clear to Putin that this is only the first step. Together with some of the other measures, it's possible that by the end of the year Ukraine will be a little more secure, while Putin could be getting uncomfortable. Perhaps that then the conditions would arise for serious talks. Regardless, all of it would require a major shift in the White House based on the recognition (we still don't have it) that Russia started this war, and that it is Russia that needs to be compelled to back down, give up its imperial delusions, and accept that the old sphere of influence, the old empire is gone. Back in the past century, we didn't believe we'd see the Cold War ending, the Soviet Union disappearing--and yet that's what happened. So perhaps that we can't rule out another surprise (the next stage in the same process, one could say). We won't get there, however, unless we increase the pressure on the Kremlin. And as in the Cold War, we won't get there without the U.S. playing a central part. We've heard a lot of talk the past week, not all of it useless, but without some real action, not much will change.