November 7, 2025

 Friday. Left a little before ten. Blacksmith. Clear, cool morning, nothing but blue skies and just light winds out of the south. Merwedekanaal to Vreeswijk, then Lekdijk. Plenty of water in the river, and some on the lands below the levee. River very peaceful. After Klein Scheveningen a beautiful strip of low green reeds, illuminated by the sun, in between two black, recently plowed plots. On the other side, a group of tall trees still half full of yellow leaves, also lit up. On the estate before Jaarsveld, one tree full of yellow leaves amid the rest. Lopik to Oudewater. Green fields, mostly empty (all the corn long gone) with still cows and also plenty of sheep. Snelrewaard to Montfoort, then Harmelen, de Meern, and back into the city and Mos. In the paper a discussion of the drone interference at all kinds of European locations. No clear proof of a Russian operation, but, as the article notes, when viewed from a Russian perspective, this would be an excellent way to wage a shadow war against NATO and possibly prepare for a more traditional conflict. This on top of the shadow fleet, and social media campaigns and the mobilization of useful idiots to influence Western public opinion. Getting NATO and the EU to abandon Ukraine would just be one goal, although probably the most urgent one. But it's not as if the Russian president and his circle haven't repeatedly designated the expanded NATO as the enemy--Ukraine or not. "Root causes" of the current war, after all, include the alliance's inclusion of members of the former Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact and its presence in these countries. Another driving force, of course, is the EU's existence as a fairly successful collaboration between (mostly) open and prosperous societies. And let's face it: for the current regime in Moscow, in power since 2000, the West, as an alternative system, does pose a threat to its stability and legitimacy. Ukraine's aspiration, going back to the 1990s, to become more like the West, perhaps even join its institutions (and Western encouragement of it) is the threat's most urgent manifestation. But even if Russia succeeded in forcing Ukraine to submit to its demands, nothing fundamental would change in the Kremlin's view of its relationship to the West, which it views as a zero-sum proposition. The struggle would continue. For the West, it really isn't too different--at least not for Europe (Washington has become a wild card, at best): Ukraine needs to win, and Russia needs to change to the point where it can live with itself in a way that doesn't require a foreign enemy or an imperial self-image. To achieve the former, the West could do more than it does right now; and if Ukraine can maintain its independence, we might be closer to achieving the latter because Putin's war would be exposed as bloody, expensive, and pointless failure.