October 16, 2025

Thursday. Left a little before five. Nikor. Mild but cooling off as the sun got lower and the light, northwesterly winds made themselves felt more; mostly cloudy, but good light getting through from time to time. Rear flasher employed on the darker section after Maartensdijk, but the daylight was adequate all the way to 6:30.  Blauwkapel to Groenekan and Maartensdijk. Commuters, and kids headed to field hockey practice. Dog people, of course. Embranchementweg and Wieksloterweg and into the woods to the military museum. Up ahead on the runway nice color contrast in the tree line. Very few people in the woods or on the airfield. Bos en Duin quiet also, then on the way to de Bilt and the city more commuters. Lucky bike commuters, and a fair share of commuters stuck in cars. The news with the latest White House twist on Russia and Ukraine, one that only confirms Ukraine, and Europe, should become self-reliant: there has been a good telephone call with the Kremlin, apparently discussing U.S.-Russian trade opportunities after the war ends. There's talk of a new in-person meeting, in Hungary--if anyone didn't get their drift. So much for the idea of sending Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, although that idea has not formally been taken off the table. In the meantime, we can also read how Ukraine is taking an ever bigger toll on Russia's petrochemical sector using its own capabilities. Perhaps eventually the White House can come into the situation again to push through a cease-fire agreement, but only if conditions in the war have changed. In the Middle East it was important for Israel first to have reached some of its objectives against its enemies; Ukraine needs to make similar progress against Russia, to the point where the U.S. and other outsiders might convince the Kremlin that it would be much better off without the war. But the conversation would have to be about Russia; it can only take place after Ukraine (helped by its friends) has taken care of itself, and more (really put the hurt on Russia); and after it has demonstrated it will be able to do so in the future. All this before the point where Russia may get desperate and reach for its bigger guns. In short, the timing of a U.S. diplomatic intervention crucially has to be at a moment of maximum Ukrainian strength and growing Russian frustration, and it would probably require some weighing in by third parties. It would be nice if one of these could be China--behind the scenes, to be sure. But for that to become even thinkable, we'd need to be rid of the trade war or at least tone it down. We're still headed in the opposite direction on that front.