December 7, 2025

Sunday. Left at 10:20. Nikor. Gray, on the mild side, with light southern breezes. Pavement damp; wet when covered with leaves. Most leaves on the ground now, little color left on the trees and bushes. Berenkuil to de Bilt and Zeist. Mountainbikers around the Beauforthuis, some road riders out also, but not busy anywhere. Woudenberg to Griftdijk and Haarweg. Few cars; the hill also fairly fume-free. The field off to the left before Overberg very still. Quite damp at the top of the ridge. Toward Leersum, then left: Amerongerwetering and Gooyerdijk. The land and the farms idle, but many farmers will sell you fresh eggs. New asphalt on the Rhodensteijnselaan. Langbroekerdijk and Zuwe toward Werkhoven. The sun making a feeble and unsuccessful attempt to work its way through the cloud cover. Nothing doing in Werkhoven; Achterdijk not busy either. Marsdijk and Koningsweg back into town. The trees along the singels still showing some good colors, especially combined with the leaves already on the ground. Yesterday's paper at Mos. The White House's a-moral transactional approach to foreign relations, as laid out in the new National Security Strategy, as clear as ever. Today a report that according to the Kremlin the two sides see eye-to-eye. Of course they'd say that, but it also happens to be true. For one thing, they are both  hostile to the EU and everything it purports to stand for. As if to confirm, the American president's son publicly shows his contempt for Ukraine and its leader. "Europe," meanwhile, can't get its act together for all kinds of reasons, even though its leaders (some of them) continue to pledge unconditional solidarity with Kyiv. It hasn't kept a Dutch national security talking head from hawking a new book in which, apparently, he tries to show that Europe, if it plays its cards right, can play a leading role in a world in which it is no longer allied with the U.S. One can dream, but it would be better--especially for a self-avowed Realist--to point to the perils of division, populism, and self-delusion. Push may come to shove well before most Europeans are caught up on how their world has changed.

November 30, 2025

 Sunday. Left around 9:45. Nikor. Rain overnight, and everything sparkled in the sun. Some clouds, and moderate southwesterly winds which made it feel on the cool side. Singel  (leaves brown, yellow, and red high and low) to Koningsweg and Vechten. The entire Marsweg without any motorized traffic. Achterdijk fairly quiet too, and flat and open. The asphalt shimmering everywhere. Schalkwijk church spire in the distance. Hollendewagenweg even flatter, opener. The lone tree by the Tuurdijk. Nachtdijk to Goyerbrug and Beusichemseweg. Not a single motorized vehicle from there, all the way to beyond the railroad underpass. Wind, but otherwise a very quiet river. Not too many birds any more. Just five cars until Tull en 't Waal. Schalkwijk church from the opposite side. Approach to the Beatrixsluis fine, as long as you ignore the big boxes to your right, which is hard to do. Coming down from the Plofsluis a barge approaching the locks that was loaded to the point of its narrow walkways on the outside being under water. Merwedekanaal and bike path full of Sunday recreationalists, and who could blame them. Mos with the Saturday paper. A report on EU debates over how to finance the war. Belgium resisting simply using frozen Russian funds held there; Germany and the Netherlands, among others, resisting the Eurobond alternative. It's related to a recent debate in parliament over here, where the government doesn't yet want to release more money for Kyiv because some other EU members finally need to do their part first. All this as more confirmation comes in of Washington's willingness to support the Russian agenda and of the administration's indifference to Ukraine or European security. No wonder Moscow is not interested in serious peace talks--the war and the geopolitical context are going its way. It is too early to say that Europe is incapable of promoting its own security, currently on the line in Ukraine. If, however, the money can't be found soon, it will have failed a critical test, maybe fatally so. It is true that in Europe, stuff usually gets done slowly, and that in most cases, eventually, EU member states manage to act in the common interest. With 27 member states having a voice, and a vote, it is never easy. But today, there's even less time than, say, during the Euro crisis fifteen years ago. A crisis like that tends to focus the minds. It would be nice to see a little more focus soon.

November 29, 2025

 Saturday. Left by 10:15. Nikor. Roads mostly dry, but the wet leaves do not dry out very quickly this time of year, and not all of them have come down yet. Gray skies, not too cold, but the moderate southwesterly breezes made it feel on the cool side. Straatweg to Maarssen, ARK to Otterspoorbroek and Woerdenseweg. All more or less still traceable on the old Kuyper map from the 1860s (when there was no canal). To Breukelen, across the ARK and north. A large SUV alongside, very eager to go fast where it's not appropriate. We are fortunate with all of our separate bike paths here. Another uncharted road in the Angstelkade. The Kuyper map (Loenen) is from well before the old railroad (Aalsmeer-Nieuwersluis) was built. It has been closed for almost forty years, and there was no clear evidence that there was ever a bridge across the Angstel river, although the old railroad dike is still very easy to spot. Back across the ARK at Loenersloot. Through old Loenen past the excellent leaning tower to the Vecht, where it was quiet. Joined the Rocket Toupalik after Breukelen for a brief return to the racer universe until just before Oud Zuilen. Home by way of Rooie Brug and Cycleworks. By then, the sun was almost successful in trying to break through the cloud cover.

November 28, 2025

 Friday. Left by 10:45. Nikor. Much milder than expected, still damp and gray. Moderate winds out of the west. Gele Brug to 't Zand and Alendorp. Some good colors hanging on in yards, and on bushes, hedges and some trees. Rivierpad quiet. Breudijk to Gerverscop. Some cars, empty fields, save for a few sheep here and there. Looking toward the city, dark gray up high, light gray below, but the sun never made it through, and there was no horizon anywhere. All the cows seem to have been moved indoors. Rodendijk to Hollandse Kade, because Wagendijk closed off. What's not to like. Spengen and Geerkade and Portengense Zuwe--everything the way it was forty years ago, and probably earlier. New living structures, of course, but nothing too obnoxious. Portengen and Galgerwaard to Breukelen. Peaceful again through Gunterstein, Scheendijk, Veenkade. Maarsseveen to Oud Zuilen and Mos. In the paper a story about the disconnect between the daily experience in Ukraine, and the still widespread oblivion about the wider world over here. You do get the impression that, while political support for standing with Ukraine and against the Kremlin regime holds, too many people still believe the war barely has any relevance to their own lives. More encouraging was a letter-to-the-editor urging that national security be made top priority in the current talks on a new government. Meanwhile, also the news that France will recruit up to 50,000 volunteer military to supplement its professional forces. Elsewhere a confused column by a German academic, arguing against reintroduction of conscription, if only as a theoretical back-up to a voluntary scheme to boost the armed forces. Entirely certain, this one, of her own wisdom, as could be seen in her clumsy use of irony. Entirely uninterested also in any serious analysis of the nature and objectives of the enemy. She would reject that term, since all that's needed in the effort to achieve peace, finally, is "detente." Indeed, let's go to Moscow and talk detente. As a professor with first-hand experience with Nazi and Soviet invaders once said: detente to me is the kind of relationship as between a man and a piece of bread. Detente can have its place, but not at a time when one side is waging a war of terror, tied to a shadow war, against the other. The assailant needs to be put in its place before any meaningful relaxation of tensions can begin. More relevant was what came in the mail today: a booklet from the government urging citizens to prepare for an emergency situation. It will be disparaged. Civil defense is hard to do in a way that's credible not only to the enemy but also the population. However, it's part of a credible deterrent, like so many other things, including, indeed, a broad willingness among young people to serve.

November 23, 2025

 Sunday. Left a little after ten. Focus. Snow in the yard, but once outside, the roadways were mostly clean. Gray skies, moderate southerly winds; cold. Snow on the cars, on some parts of the trails, and in the fields. In the fields, the snow was enough to add some contrast to the mixture of green, brown, and black. It was especially beautiful as seen from the dike along the Tienhovens Kanaal. There, also the first bits of frozen water of the season. Through Voordorp--snow still on the residential streets--past the Hoge Kampse Plas to Beukenburg. Prinsenlaan to Maartensdijk and the woods. The cold seems to have kept most people indoors, but there were some dog walkers and off-road cyclists. Lage Vuursche and around Drakenstein back to the village, then north to the Wasmeer and back south. Eventually, across the freeway and the railroad to the Hilversum side. Long, clean, quiet stretches with sections where the snow had accumulated on the trail and white accents all around. Einde Gooi to Tienhovens Kanaal. From the dike, looking southeast, a narrow, yellow band of clearing just above the horizon. The dike almost deserted. Maarsseveense plas full of runners. Gageldijk and Klopdijk to the Vecht and Mos. 

November 21, 2025

Friday. Left around quarter to two. Nikor. Almost cold, sunny skies, light winds from the southwest. Sun already low, and still some leaves on trees to be illuminated. Biltse Rading to de Bilt, then Bilthoven. School letting out, so very different from a Sunday morning. Airfield fairly quiet, then Soesterhoogt from both sides and to the Zeisterspoor. The woods acquiring their winter look, but with the sun it wasn't dreary. Laan 1914 and Hugo de Grootlaan, then Soesterweg to Hilhorstweg. The view of the church in Soest. The light on the fields. Just a few people on the Eng, and the train rolling alongside to the right. Houses and apartment buildings on the way to Wieksloterweg, there a right, toward the non-stop rush-hour traffic on the Soestdijkerweg. Den Dolder would have been better, although on a Friday afternoon, it's hard to find a quiet road here anywhere. The repaved Lindenlaan to Groenekan. Home in the fast-fading daylight. The news full of Washington's latest push for peace in Ukraine. It's all depressingly familiar, particularly the starting point of "ending the war." Let's make it something abstract: two parties fighting--why, and why don't they stop? Unless you start talking about the kind of war this is, it's never going to end in a durable peace negotiated by the two belligerents. It remains impossible for the White House to accept that this is a Russian war of aggression, meant to end Ukraine's existence as an independent state, and that in itself it is part of a larger, zero-sum campaign against the West and everything it stands for (for better or for worse). That contest will go on in case of a Ukrainian defeat. As someone once said in a similar context: "it cannot be otherwise." It's possible, of course, that the administration understands this full well but just doesn't care for Ukraine, its people, and the wider implications of what under the current proposal would be a solid Russian victory. But if you care for Ukraine and what its struggle represents, the only durable way to end this war is to achieve enough military set-backs and economic hardship for Russia to cause a regime change in Moscow. Ironically, if one of Washington's motives for trying to broker an end to the war is the dealmaking that could follow it, with Kyiv as well as with Moscow, then backing Ukraine to the hilt could well achieve that goal. A new, less imperial-minded, Kremlin would somehow have to be engaged, maybe even actively supported. The long-suffering people of Russia certainly deserve better lives than they have now. The current proposal won't get us anywhere close, because many, likely most, Ukrainians will never accept it. The current crisis is depressingly familiar also for what it suggests about Europe's role. It's not just that, as the main funders of Ukraine's war effort, the Europeans weren't really consulted by the Americans. More serious is the question whether, in spite of all the professions of unceasing loyalty to Ukraine, European leaders that matter are willing, and if so, able, to increase their economic and military support should the U.S. pull back and Moscow press on with its terror campaign. Right now, and following Zelensky's lead, European governments call the U.S. proposal a starting point for further negotiations. That is surely an effort to try to avoid alienating Washington, and it has worked before. For all we know, by the end of next week the president will again enter one of his phases in which he is "very disappointed" with his colleague in the Kremlin. But if this time it's a real ultimatum and Ukraine rejects it, will European leaders be willing and able to mobilize their societies for quasi-war, as surely they will have to? They may be willing; whether they can succeed amid a shadow war and a public relations campaign (both ongoing for years already) by Russia and its useful idiots in the West is very much an open question. Many Europeans may feel uneasy with the drones, the incursions, the provocations; just as many are still inclined to believe that it's really all the result of our policies: expanding NATO, supporting Ukraine, sanctioning Moscow. If we only stopped doing these things, if we stopped "threatening Russia," the whole problem would go away. We would somehow be able resume "normal" relations with Russia (and, supposedly, it with us), we could just live our lives as if the outside world didn't exist. Russia's real war in Ukraine and its shadow war against NATO countries are bad enough, but the toughest battle may be at the European home front.

November 16, 2025

Sunday. From the Houtplaats, Rheden. We left around 11:20. Focus. Overcast and a chilly wind out of the east, gradually diminishing. At first into the wind to De Steeg, there left and up, into the woods. Dark, quiet, and damp. Shoots of deciduous trees still carrying bright leaves amid tall, barren conifers. Lots of wet leaves on the pavement. Sunday walkers and riders out, but not crowded. The route led through Loenermark toward Beekbergen. Good views of the fields from little roads on the edge of the woods, such as Hulhorstweg. Asphalt to and through Hoenderlo, where they were open for business. Asphalt also past heathlands and fields and the Deelen airfield. Stunning view of the Rozendaalse Veld and the north side of the Posbank, first from the Koningsweg and then from the bike path along the Veld. The rolling heathlands alternatingly brown/yellow and a deep, dark purple, with here and there the yellow or red of a small tree. Back down through more fallen leaves and leaves still hanging on into the pastures at the bottom of the moraine. 

November 15, 2025

Saturday. Left around 2:30. Nikor. Rain on and off in the morning, light winds out of the east, and a lot cooler than it has been. Tights, shoe covers, and full gloves. Solidly gray skies, providing a fine backdrop to the leaves still on trees, but also to the green fields and yellow reeds and grasses. Yellow bridge to 't Zand and Alendorp. The latter still very colorful, and calm. Rivierpad cut and bare--no reeds, corn, or tall grass. Then Kortjaksepad to Gerverscop. Nobody or nothing at Gerverscop, just a lone tractor in a field. After the freeway at Harmelen what seemed like a rain shower up ahead. U-turn and Reijerscopse Wetering to Nedereindse Berg and Jutphaas. Merwedekanaal behind a scooter to Leidseweg. Cycleworks. The news a mixture of more Russian targeting of Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, on the one hand, and corruption cases and presidential overreach in Ukraine itself, on the other. As long as nobody tries to use the credible evidence of the latter even to begin justifying the former. The real story is how for almost four years now, under Russia's relentless assault and suffering unspeakable losses, Ukraine has continued to function and, by and large, maintained a coherent society. Corruption can be found in societies and governments everywhere; government leaders seeking to centralize political power are a dime a dozen. It would be good if there was more transparency in Ukraine's government dealings, and it would be excellent if the country could hold regular elections again. But when day after day, month after month, you're fighting off a big bear trying to crush you and finish you off, good governance can go by the wayside. Not the best way to apply for EU membership, but certainly not a reason to stop the admission process, let alone the flow of aid. 

November 11, 2025

 Tuesday. Left a little after 9:30. Nikor. Cool with light southwesterly winds. Shifting, multilayered skies, mostly gray, but with the sun peering through, sometimes clearly, sometimes still behind a thin veil of cloud cover. Roads still damp from overnight rain, in some places even a bit wet. Groenekan to Korssesteeg. A weekday morning and hardly anybody out. From the Korssesteeg the colored view of Einde Gooi is no longer visible. Generally most of the leaves are now off the trees, although what's left still looks fine. Loosdrecht did have its share of cars, then the emptiness and the peace of the Loederveenseplas. Vecht, Scheendijk, and Veenkade and Bethuneweg. Some activity. Can't blame people for trying to take advantage of a beautiful fall morning. Oud Zuilen toward the Rode Brug and home. 

November 9, 2025

 Sunday. Left at 9:50. Nikor, but it turned out to be dry everywhere. Cool, with light southwesterly winds, clearing skies. The low light beginning to do its magic throughout the day now. Vechten to Achterdijk. Fields very green in the sun, and some wildflower patches hanging on. Werkhoven and Leemkolkweg with a group. Watertorenweg toward Dwarsdijk, then Kapelleweg. Goyerbrug to Lekdijk. A crew at work on a Sunday morning to raise a wing on a new wind generator, watched by a small crew of elderly men. The river quiet, Culemborg in a light haze. Brown reeds below the levee contrasting with the grass. Everything still. Little motorized traffic. Beatrixsluis to Schipperspad. Big, working ships by the shore, and smaller barges, apparently also still in use. The difference between the mid-20th century and the 21st exemplified; human versus overwhelming dimensions. Merwedekanaal full of rowers, city full of runners. Mos. In the Saturday paper a report on the growing use by Russia of glide bombs directed at Ukrainian targets. (I'm reading Putin's comments from 2000 on the war in Chechnya, and today is no different: opponents have no legitimacy--"bandits"--and they will be made to submit, no matter the cost). These glide bombs are almost impossible to counter and extremely damaging. Ukraine has become good at dealing with the kind of damage caused by Russian terror bombing, but the country's friends can do more to assist. The best way to counter the use of these bombs is to hit their production facilities inside Russia. Let's just hope that soon, we'll get reports about a successful strike or two. 

November 7, 2025

 Friday. Left a little before ten. Blacksmith. Clear, cool morning, nothing but blue skies and just light winds out of the south. Merwedekanaal to Vreeswijk, then Lekdijk. Plenty of water in the river, and some on the lands below the levee. River very peaceful. After Klein Scheveningen a beautiful strip of low green reeds, illuminated by the sun, in between two black, recently plowed plots. On the other side, a group of tall trees still half full of yellow leaves, also lit up. On the estate before Jaarsveld, one tree full of yellow leaves amid the rest. Lopik to Oudewater. Green fields, mostly empty (all the corn long gone) with still cows and also plenty of sheep. Snelrewaard to Montfoort, then Harmelen, de Meern, and back into the city and Mos. In the paper a discussion of the drone interference at all kinds of European locations. No clear proof of a Russian operation, but, as the article notes, when viewed from a Russian perspective, this would be an excellent way to wage a shadow war against NATO and possibly prepare for a more traditional conflict. This on top of the shadow fleet, and social media campaigns and the mobilization of useful idiots to influence Western public opinion. Getting NATO and the EU to abandon Ukraine would just be one goal, although probably the most urgent one. But it's not as if the Russian president and his circle haven't repeatedly designated the expanded NATO as the enemy--Ukraine or not. "Root causes" of the current war, after all, include the alliance's inclusion of members of the former Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact and its presence in these countries. Another driving force, of course, is the EU's existence as a fairly successful collaboration between (mostly) open and prosperous societies. And let's face it: for the current regime in Moscow, in power since 2000, the West, as an alternative system, does pose a threat to its stability and legitimacy. Ukraine's aspiration, going back to the 1990s, to become more like the West, perhaps even join its institutions (and Western encouragement of it) is the threat's most urgent manifestation. But even if Russia succeeded in forcing Ukraine to submit to its demands, nothing fundamental would change in the Kremlin's view of its relationship to the West, which it views as a zero-sum proposition. The struggle would continue. For the West, it really isn't too different--at least not for Europe (Washington has become a wild card, at best): Ukraine needs to win, and Russia needs to change to the point where it can live with itself in a way that doesn't require a foreign enemy or an imperial self-image. To achieve the former, the West could do more than it does right now; and if Ukraine can maintain its independence, we might be closer to achieving the latter because Putin's war would be exposed as bloody, expensive, and pointless failure. 

November 4, 2025

 Tuesday. Left at 9:30. Nikor. Fairly mild, especially on the way home, when the sun had also come out. Moderate southwesterly breezes. Zandpad and Vecht all the way to Nederhorst den Berg. Roads a bit damp, here and there, but otherwise dry. Still a good deal of color on the trees and bushes. Some other riders and walkers, some cars before Breukelen. After Nieuwersluis calm. Home by way of the Horstermeer (where apparently one can't get a place under half a million any more--how things change in the course of a lifetime), Herenweg, Kwakel, Emmaweg, Kerkelanden, airfield, and Korssesteeg. Soggy corn field (corn all gone now) alongside the bikepath running from Egelshoek; quite a few campers still at the farm, but no tents. 

October 19, 2025

Sunday. Left a little after 9:30. Blacksmith. Crisp, dry fall morning, many cyclists wearing full gloves, although also several still in shorts. Moderate winds out of the southeast under uneven, gray-white cloud cover. The sun did good things with that. Marsdijk and Achterdijk, with some wildflower borders still showing signs of life. Werkhoven to Tuurdijk and Nachtdijk. Headwinds cooler than they have been in a long time, but not really cold, so a very good morning. The river and its banks beautiful, green; the water with some movement but few boats. A few small sails visible in the marina outside of Culemborg. Tailwind and a group to Vreeswijk, then the old waterfront before and after Nieuwegein. ARK to Gele Brug, and into the city to Mos. Yesterday's paper with Friday's confirmation: there will be no Tomahawks for Ukraine for the time being. All it takes is just one phone call for the whole charade to start again. We can look forward once more to an in-person meeting between the Russian and American presidents. The former knows exactly what he wants, and how to get it; the latter not so much, other than domination of the news cycle at home and abroad. For his part, the Ukrainian president walks the tightrope of not alienating the White House while doing damage in Russia and holding his nation together. His European neighbors should help him where they can and keep explaining to their own voters how this is an efficient way to promote their own security too. There are too many Europeans who still believe that the war isn't really their problem, and that if it ended and/or we would talk to the Kremlin, we could just get on with our lives. There would not be any trouble between us and the Russians. This kind of thinking is implied in retrospective criticism of Western policies in the 1990s: if we had not expanded NATO, we would not be where we are with the Russians now. The only way to make that argument is to ignore Russian aspirations and Russian developments after 1991. There is much to say on this subject of the origins of the new cold war (as there always has been on the start of the original Cold War). In fact, quite a few specialists have done so, with perhaps new revisionists (critics of Western policies, as opposed to those who see Russia as the main problem) gaining traction. As with the original Cold War, for our current East-West conflict it may be most useful to see vast differences in outlook right after the Cold War, on top of chaotic, uncertain, and uncontrollable Russian developments. A key question for today's debate then becomes one that's actually pretty old, namely the extent to which one could have built one's policy on the assumption that Russia at that time (or at any time) could be made to fit within a European order they way other major countries (say, Germany, France) did so. That's not only a question of power, it's also a question (as it has been since Peter the Great) of ideas and principles. During the 1990s the integration of Russia was a highly uncertain proposition at best and thus not one on which to base your policies as a Western leader. In making this point, you can allow for Western self-confidence ("hubris" would be taking it too far). There were also the legitimate needs of Eastern and Central Europan countries to take into account--closer to home, and much further along in transforming their societies into open and democratic ones. With them, the West could try to build something on the basis of shared, fundamental principles much more easily than with a semi-autocratic Russia waging war (Chechnya) against some of its own people. And it has, by and large. There's much more to say on this subject, and more is to come.

October 16, 2025

Thursday. Left a little before five. Nikor. Mild but cooling off as the sun got lower and the light, northwesterly winds made themselves felt more; mostly cloudy, but good light getting through from time to time. Rear flasher employed on the darker section after Maartensdijk, but the daylight was adequate all the way to 6:30.  Blauwkapel to Groenekan and Maartensdijk. Commuters, and kids headed to field hockey practice. Dog people, of course. Embranchementweg and Wieksloterweg and into the woods to the military museum. Up ahead on the runway nice color contrast in the tree line. Very few people in the woods or on the airfield. Bos en Duin quiet also, then on the way to de Bilt and the city more commuters. Lucky bike commuters, and a fair share of commuters stuck in cars. The news with the latest White House twist on Russia and Ukraine, one that only confirms Ukraine, and Europe, should become self-reliant: there has been a good telephone call with the Kremlin, apparently discussing U.S.-Russian trade opportunities after the war ends. There's talk of a new in-person meeting, in Hungary--if anyone didn't get their drift. So much for the idea of sending Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, although that idea has not formally been taken off the table. In the meantime, we can also read how Ukraine is taking an ever bigger toll on Russia's petrochemical sector using its own capabilities. Perhaps eventually the White House can come into the situation again to push through a cease-fire agreement, but only if conditions in the war have changed. In the Middle East it was important for Israel first to have reached some of its objectives against its enemies; Ukraine needs to make similar progress against Russia, to the point where the U.S. and other outsiders might convince the Kremlin that it would be much better off without the war. But the conversation would have to be about Russia; it can only take place after Ukraine (helped by its friends) has taken care of itself, and more (really put the hurt on Russia); and after it has demonstrated it will be able to do so in the future. All this before the point where Russia may get desperate and reach for its bigger guns. In short, the timing of a U.S. diplomatic intervention crucially has to be at a moment of maximum Ukrainian strength and growing Russian frustration, and it would probably require some weighing in by third parties. It would be nice if one of these could be China--behind the scenes, to be sure. But for that to become even thinkable, we'd need to be rid of the trade war or at least tone it down. We're still headed in the opposite direction on that front.

October 14, 2025

Tuesday. Mild but a bit damp, partly cloudy with white to black, blue in between, light winds out of the south. Blauwkapel and two-track trail (storks to the left) to Achttienhoven. From Korssesteeg colored hills up ahead. Airfield to Nieuw Loosdrecht (irritating dog people), then left toward Breukeleveen and Muyenveld. Boomhoek with a brick section now--progress. Tienhoven, Middenweg, Griendweg, Strook, Veenkade, and Bethuneweg. Home by way of Herenweg, Oud Zuilen, and Cycleworks. 

October 12, 2025

Sunday. Left at 8:30. Nikor. Mostly overcast, but some promise of light here and there; gray, white, and yellow-gold in the skies. Mild with light winds out of the north. Straatweg to Maarssen, ARK to Nesciobrug. Light traffic on the waterway, an occasional passer-by on the dike. Discouraging to see the first signs of the city to the northwest even before Loenersloot. North of there, the sun suddenly emerged from behind the cloud cover to the east, casting beautiful low light on the fields and on the poplar trees. In the sun, it warmed up quickly also, but approaching the city it got overcast again and so that did not last. Sunday groups out, also in Waterland. Zunderdorp has been repaved and perhaps humankind isn't completely lost, because they put in bricks, and they put them in well. A motorcycle club found it necessary to travel the Broekergouw, but when they were out of sight, everything else was in order there. Going back, some raindrops on the Popperdammergouw. There, also some water on the road, apparently due to high water levels in the polder. Same after Ransdorp. Waterland looks less besieged by the city when coming down this way, as compared to Uitdam-Durgerdam. Schellingwouderbrug and IJburg, the latter busy, which was not surprising. Same on the way to Muiden. Vecht less busy than you might have expected. Still nothing going on in Nederhorst den Berg on a Sunday afternoon. They are reinforcing the shoreline between Nieuwersluis and Breukelen, which seems like a very good idea. Utrecht people on the last part of the Zandpad, again only logical. In the news more commentary about the peace plan and how only this White House could have brought it about. That underestimates the importance of timing. In the past weeks, Israel had both achieved the weakening of all of its enemies in the region and begun to overreach in a way that threatened U.S. interests. Other factors (Israeli public opinion) played a part. There still had to be a coordinated and forceful diplomatic push, but the time was ripe for an end to the carnage. Let's just hope that's what we have.  

October 9, 2025

 Thursday. Left at 10:30 (Dom bells ringing as I climbed on). Nikor. Sunny, cool-ish, but warming up. Light southwesterly winds. A fine fall day. Leidseweg to de Meernbrug and ARK south. Then Papendorp and Galecop to Nedereindseweg. Papendorp is an office park, but Galecop parallel to the freeway (but behind the sound wall) is pleasant riding. Bike path to Meerlobridge, then Zuid IJsseldijk toward Achthoven and Mastwijk. More fall colors, still some uncut corn, the cattle still outside. At Montfoort right onto the Cattenbroekerdijk, then straight through Woerden to the Oude Rijn. Houtdijkerpad to Hollandse Kade, all remarkably quiet in light of the good weather. Laag Nieuwkoop, nature trail, Haarzuilens. Home by way of Smalle Themaat, lint, Crouweldijk. Paper at Mos in the warm sun. A cease- fire in the Middle East whose time had come. Against its enemies, Israel finally feels it has achieved enough; after the Israeli attack on Qatar, the White House finally had enough. Washington on the face of it was a crucial mover in getting this done, and so far so good. As everyone points out, once we manage to get past the first phase and the release of hostages and prisoners, the hard part will come. Many on both sides will argue that "there is no partner" with which to pursue a lasting peace, and right now all would be correct. Whether partners for peace can emerge in the wake of this war is an open question, but the question isn't wide-open. Better may be to say that it can't be ruled out. We'd need a very different government in Israel, and we'd need some new Palestinian leaders to (be allowed to) step forward. It's not clear which is less likely, but neither seems a realistic option for the foreseeable future. 

October 6, 2025

Monday. Left just before 9:30. Overcast, calm, with a light drizzle most of the time. Not too much to see in the skies, but the leaves have begun to turn, yielding beautiful and often sudden views of just one bush or tree standing out against a mostly green or brownish background. The reverse of early spring, although not quite as hopeful. Blauwkapel to Groenekan and Maartensdijk. New asphalt after Groenekan. Lage Vuursche quiet, Hoge Vuurscheweg dark. Soestdijk to the Eng. The wildflower borders are brown, but in there, the sunflowers still look healthy. Otherwise the Eng empty, green, brown, and black. Eemweg en Hilhorstweg to Amersfoort. Up past the monastery and Vlasakkers to the runway. Hardly anyone there. Bos & Duin to de Bilt and home.  

October 2, 2025

 Thursday. Left at 11. Recovery day. Nikor. Cool, overcast, moderate breezes out of the southwest--Fall. Coffee roasting on the way to 't Zand, then Lint to Smalle Themaat and Haarzuilens. Hollandse Kade beautiful headed north, reeds on both sides and beyond, the fields. Going away from the city into the green, it is still as if the city isn't there (but go too far north, and Amsterdam begins to rear its ugly head). Teckop calm, Kanis to Woerdense Verlaat equally so. Hollandse Kade without the gates even better than it used to be. Then de Meije, quieter than on a Sunday. Bodegraven, south side of the Oude Rijn to Woerden (missing the turn to the Rijndijk). Oude Rijn back to de Meern and beyond. At Mos in the autumn sun with the newspaper. A small EU step on the way to using blocked Russian assets in the West to help Ukraine; an apparent interest in Washington to provide a wider range of intelligence on Russian targets, and maybe the missiles to hit them with. Elsewhere reports on how Ukrainian society and its democracy is creaking, indeed slipping, after three-and-a-half years of war. Histories of this war, whenever they can cover it from the beginning to some meaningful end point, will have to give prominent place to the impact of the West's piecemeal approach to helping Kiev. Eventually, most if not everything that's requested and required is made available. And while all assistance helps, the impact is diminished by the timing. This was especially the case during the first year of the war, but it continues to hamper efforts to force Russia to reconsider its objectives. 

September 28, 2025

 Sunday. Left a little before ten. Nikor. Cool, calm, sunny--a fine early fall day. Marsdijk to Achterdijk. People were out, especially on bikes. Not too much motorized traffic. Werkhoven en Hollendewagenweg. Fruit off the little trees there. Leaves and gardens still mostly summer green. Nachtdijk to Goyerbrug and Lekdijk, by which time it had warmed up. River very calm, but migratory birds (geese) making a ruckus in the marshy areas below the levee. Culemborg and its towers calmly sitting where it is supposed to be. Since the growth of car traffic remains unstoppable, the Hagesteinsebrug will be widened, so for the time being the road on the levee will be closed and we'll have to see what we're left with once it's all said and done. Beatrixsluizen to Vreeswijk and its good old waterfront. Merwedekanaal back into the city.  

September 26, 2025

Friday. Left at 10:30. Nikor. Cool but dry, with initially, and toward the end, some sun. Otherwise skies showing many shades of white and gray. Light to moderate breezes from the east. Straatweg to Maarssen, then ARK. Turning onto the dike, a beautiful mid-20th century barge on its way north. A right onto the Maarssenbroeksedijk, back to the Straatweg. From Breukelen, Vecht east side to Vreeland, then west side to Nigtevecht. Fruit still on the trees, but also on the ground, and for sale by the side of the road. Palmgrass thriving in many places, along with NIMBYism between Vreeland and Nichtevecht. Across the ARK (good, long views in both directions off the bicycle bridge), and toward Abcoude. Gein has mostly been left alone, and it was nice and quiet. Eendracht. Next the Winkeldijk. In itself, it's a fine little road, but headed west, there's just too much freeway and city interfering with the vistas. Things improved along the Waver, after Stokkelaarsbrug, and then past Botshol to Vinkeveen. Donkereind to Geerkade, Spengen, and Hollandse Kade. Houtdijkerpad to Houtdijk and Breudijk. Haarzuilens to Maximapark, Gele Brug; and home amid the school kids and other commuters. 

September 19, 2025

 Friday. Left a little after 11:30. Blacksmith. A summer day, mostly sunny, some blown apart, stretched out white clouds here and there, moderate breezes from the south. Merwedekanaal to Nedereindseweg and the bikepath to the Meerlobrug. IJsseldijk, and around IJsselstein to Benschop. Around the town toward Jaarsveld. Detour through the business park. The river very peaceful, but enough people taking advantage on the dike. Lopik, Polsbroekerdam, Oudewater. Mowing going on everywhere; lots of corn still upright. Snelrewaard to Montfoort and Harmelen. Zandweg back to town. Russian provocations in Eastern Europe continue, but in spite of empty expressions of disappointment in the Russian leader, the White House keeps confirming that it will not undertake anything to push back. And so the assaults on Ukraine continue as will, in all likelihood, the provocations. The best hope for a way out is for Ukraine to inflict so much damage on Russia's fossil fuel infrastructure, that the Russian economy will enter a real crisis. But even then, being all-in and maintaining many lethal military options, how is the Kremlin going to lose this war?

September 14, 2025

 Sunday. Left at 9:50. Blacksmith. Sunny, but, as became clear within the first kilometer, wet roads everywhere from overnight showers. Southwesterly winds at the back toward de Bilt, Zeist, Woudenberg. People out, but not busy. Some corn fields now bare, but it still didn't feel like fall, although early on it was on the cool side. Griftdijk, Haarweg to Amerongen. Hill quiet, except for motorcycles from both directions at the same time. Almost as bad as being passed by one of those stink diesel cars. The two fields between Amerongen and Leersum. Ginkelduin back to Haarweg. Company for the second time. Hoogstraat, Ruiterberg, wet and dirty. Maarn to Zeisterweg and back home. Wind making itself felt after de Bilt. On tv protests cancelling the final stage of the Vuelta. Apparently, the protesters are "pro-Palestinian," whatever that might mean exactly. There are many ways that can be defined. Apparently, they are also anti-Israel Premier Tech, one of the teams sponsored by a supporter of Israel. (But what does that mean: supportive of Israel's right to exist, or perhaps of anything the current government does?) The protests have been an ongoing phenomenon during the race almost since the start, and obviously, there's nothing the cyclists can do to stop the war. But the race is on tv every day, and interfering with the race (even at the risk of endangering the riders) gets you attention. Perhaps the idea is that this attention will add to the pressure on governments, especially the one in Spain, to take (more) measures against the Israeli government and its warfare in Gaza and, might as well add it, the West Bank. Perhaps there is no clear idea about what these protests should accomplish; perhaps in the end they are primarily an expression of the anger and desperation people feel watching the horrors from Gaza every day, and of the urge to do something, no matter how inconsequential for the course of events in Gaza. From the perspective of the bike race and those who like to watch, it is a drag, because it affects the racing, or even cancels it. But that's the world we live in right now: you may think (especially in this part of the world) that you can just live your life while other regions burn, but you really can't. In some respects globalization has been beating a retreat in the past decade, in other respects it remains a defining characteristic of our time.

September 13, 2025

 Saturday. Left around 9:15. Nikor. Cool, so long sleeves, but when the sun came out that was on the warm side. Partly cloudy, breezes out of the southwest. People out, doing Saturday morning things. Gele brug to 't Zand and Alendorp. On the early part of the Rivierpad beautiful borders with grass, brownish weeds, and reeds, and behind two fields with sunflowers still up. Breudijk to Gerverscop (one car). It all felt more like late summer than early fall. Hollandse Kade for a change (hardly anyone), then Spengen, Geerkade, Portengensebrug (also quite peaceful). The view north from Galgerwaard, the bow of a big barge on the canal. Breukelen to Scheendijk (south), Veenkade and Bethuneweg. Lush grass or reeds in many places with red-brownish plumes. It was the nationwide open day at architectural monuments, which may have been why both windmills outside of Oud Zuilen were spinning, the small one quite fast. Just beyond, several storks in a field (and a woman trying to photograph the scene). Vecht back to Mos. Saturday paper looking back on the week in Eastern Europe (Russian drone provocation in Poland). By now, no one is waiting any more for a response from the White House. The best we can hope for is that U.S. representatives at NATO can continue (as they currently are) their constructive participation in the alliance's response (enhanced and coordinated air defense in the region). As far as more direct pressure on Moscow is concerned, that's just not going to happen. The decisive struggles in the interest of Ukraine's survival and a credible European deterrent vis-a-vis Moscow increasingly take place, first (of course) in Ukraine itself, and, second, domestically in the major European states (those whose governments are "willing" to step up). Ukraine increasingly is able to take care of its own needs; whether willing European leaders can continue to bring their constituents along, or whether too many will get suckered by one Moscow-friendly populist or another, remains an open question. 

September 6, 2025

 Saturday. Left around 10:30. Blacksmith. Mild, light winds out of the southeast, some vague white clouds here and there, but mostly sunny. West side of the Vecht all the way to the end of the Daalseweg (suspicious look out of a car window departing from those exclusive homes). Then Oostwaard to Zuylensebrug and through Maarssenbroek. At the other side of the freeway some new access road construction going on--the beast that is the city/suburb automobile remains hungry for yet more space. Through the fields around Haarzuilens to Laag Nieuwkoop and Gerverscop. The latter busier with bikes, tractors, and cars than on weekdays, but still pleasant. To Woerden and Cattenbroek. A mostly quiet, sunny Saturday morning; people, but no one in the way, little motorized interference. Bridge open in Montfoort, so left through Achthoven. Highlight was the green, peaceful IJsseldijk toward the Meerlobrug. On the bike path beyond, the one obnoxious, loud light motorcycle of the day, ruining things for a moment. Nedereindseweg and Ringkade to de Meern, and back into the city and Mos. In the paper a piece on how the interference with Von der Leyen's airplane's communications system may be a more complicated story than an unambiguous one of targeted Russian intimidation, although that last option cannot be ruled out. Just because of this weekend's drone attacks on Ukraine Moscow does not deserve the benefit of the doubt. Meanwhile, the American president, once more, talks about how he may impose new sanctions on Russia. Let's have some walking of the walk, finally.

September 5, 2025

 Friday. Left a little before 9:30. Blacksmith. Shower in the area, pulling away toward the east; no one drop from above, but wet roads all the way to the Goyerbrug. On the cool side at the start. Southwesterly winds, and excellent clearing skies full of white and gray clouds. Wayen to Langeweg and 't-Goy (Groenedijkje), and across the Goyerbrug. Beusichemseweg just a few cars, same for the Lekdijk toward Tull en 't Waal. First the fine and shifting views of Culemborg. Riverbanks as lovely as ever, with or without summer-levee. Strijpweg to Beatrix- and Plofsluis; Jutphase brug and Merwedekanaal back into town. Leaving from CW a big downpour that continued for fifteen or twenty minutes, so bikewash in the backyard. In the news reports that the administration will end security assistance programs to bolster NATO's eastern flank, the one facing Russia. Not only will this president not take direct steps against the thug in the Kremlin, apparently he is working to make life easier for him, undercutting what are supposed to be allied countries. Par for the course and yet another argument for redoubling European investments in its defense.

September 1, 2025

Monday. Left a little after 10:30. Blacksmith. On the cool side and overcast, but gradually the sun and southwesterly winds started pulling things apart, making for good-looking skies. Back in the home territory: gele brug, 't-Zand, then right at the Lint as far as the Smalle Themaat. Then the bike path to the Rijneveldse Bospad, right at Haarzuilens, toward Kortrijk. Some weeds by the side of the roads and bike paths either brown, or mowed down. The smell of cut grass; good views of Kockengen from Kortrijk. Through Breukelen and Scheendijk south, then the Strook to Griendweg and Middenweg, Heuvellaan, Nedereindse Vaart and Molenpolder to Kooijdijk. Paper from Van der Neut (not appreciated, basically a failed experiment) and back into town. The news of the jamming, most likely by Russia, of Von der Leyen's plane, forcing the pilots to navigate to the ground using paper maps. Sending the head of the organization most engaged in supporting Ukraine--or opposing Russia's goals on the continent--an unsubtle signal: we'll mess with you to the point of endangering your life, and there's nothing you can do about it. It's up to the EU, or at least willing European governments, to prove the thugs in the Kremlin wrong. The American president remains missing in action when it comes to measures that make life difficult for Moscow, and there's no indication that this will change any time soon.

August 21, 2025

 Thursday. Left around 9:45. Blacksmith. Cooler, moderate winds out of the north. Partly cloudy, with mostly white cumulus clouds, but also some other stuff. The smell of coffee roasting at the Gele Brug. Then ARK toward Jutphaas, quiet Schipperspad to the Beatrixsluis which just let a couple of barges onto the canal. Names since forgotten. One barge entering the locks hailing from Switzerland (name ending in ...stad--not stadt). From the Plofsluis a small barge just heading out into an otherwise empty canal toward Tiel, with another small one preparing to do the same. The small barges, those built in the 1950s and '60s, take you back in time, the time of the development of the industrial area at Weesp: from the dike, watching the workers on break swim toward, and try to climb upon, passing barges, ride them for a ways, then being chased off by a member of the crew. Wayen back to town and Mos. Vibrant, what still seemed, rapeseed by the side of the road. In the paper a report on the election platform on the supposedly reasonable populist alternative, the one founded in 2021. Elsewhere we have been able to learn this week that currently there are ten million cars in this small country, and that every year one hundred thousand get added. And yet, this party, which may gain a lot of votes this fall, opposes any measures to discourage the use of cars. 

August 19, 2025

Tuesday. Left a little after ten. Blacksmith. A bright summer day, breezes out of the northeast. Some clouds, here and there, of the stretched-out kind. Toward de Bilt and following the F28 rapid bike route through it and Bilthoven, before choosing the rhythm of the small bricks of the Julianalaan. Eventually back on the route, as far as the railroad crossing, then toward Wieksloterweg and Lage Vuursche. Nature and farms beginning to look a little dry. It has been a while since we had some real rain. Lage Vuursche back to the railroad crossing (concrete trail alongside the dunes from Wieksloterweg), then past the museum toward Zeisterspoor. Dodeweg and past Leusden, left at de Mof. Thriving sunflowers on the edge of the fields after that; split up at Scherpenzeel. Amerongse berg was nice and quiet, with just a few passing cars spewing fumes. On the levee toward Wijk bij Duurstede preparations underway for the coming reconstruction job. The views during those ten kilometers are mostly unspoiled; it will take a while before the reinforced levee will be part of it again (getting used to the bigger dike is still a work-in-progress around Jaarsveld). The first closure already in place at Wijk, so right and through town toward Wijkersloot, Dwarsdijk, Werkhoven (Hollendewagenweg). Fruit ready to be picked and for sale at many farms. Achterdijk to Koningslaan, Kromme Rijn, and into the city. The news dominated by yesterday's White House meetings, which at least weren't acrimonious. Instead, they managed to float above reality, mostly detached from it. Talk of security guarantees is great, and (currently) theoretical U.S. willingness to be part of it too, except that there is no indication that Moscow will accept, for example, Western troops in Ukraine or that the West, especially the current U.S. administration, is ready to force acceptance (if that's even possible). Putin never ceases to point out that to him Ukraine is a fake state, with no right to an independent existence. This goes back to the beginning of his presidency. Bringing the country back to within Russia's fold is the main goal behind the war. Another goal ("root cause") is reversing NATO influence in the former Soviet sphere of influence. It's also something he keeps talking about and so to get Russia to accept the opposite--NATO influence in Ukraine in all but in name--is going to require an outright defeat in the war (but how does a nuclear great power lose a war?), a coup, or perhaps the kind of outside pressure on the country that threatens a regime collapse. That last option is the most realistic, but it's still very far-fetched. It would in any case require that especially the U.S. seriously expands and intensifies its range of sanctions on Russia, its leaders, and its friends, and that military aid to Ukraine (also critically coming from the U.S.) gets stepped up. An indication of whether any of this might be in the cards would be if the people around that table yesterday could agree to use seized Russian assets in the West to aid Ukraine. It would have to be made clear to Putin that this is only the first step. Together with some of the other measures, it's possible that by the end of the year Ukraine will be a little more secure, while Putin could be getting uncomfortable. Perhaps that then the conditions would arise for serious talks. Regardless, all of it would require a major shift in the White House based on the recognition (we still don't have it) that Russia started this war, and that it is Russia that needs to be compelled to back down, give up its imperial delusions, and accept that the old sphere of influence, the old empire is gone. Back in the past century, we didn't believe we'd see the Cold War ending, the Soviet Union disappearing--and yet that's what happened. So perhaps that we can't rule out another surprise (the next stage in the same process, one could say). We won't get there, however, unless we increase the pressure on the Kremlin. And as in the Cold War, we won't get there without the U.S. playing a central part. We've heard a lot of talk the past week, not all of it useless, but without some real action, not much will change. 

August 18, 2025

 Monday. Left around 9:30. Blacksmith. Mild and overcast, with in the east some clearing; various types of mostly gray clouds, various shades of gray. Light winds out of the northeast. A Monday morning, but during summer vacation time, so quite a few people out, although not busy anywhere. Motorized nuisance in just a few places. Singel to Koningsweg to Wayen. Langeweg, then ARK to Schalkwijk bridge. An old sailboat motoring north near Houten. Tetwijksepad and the five towers of Culemborg. ARK was quiet, and so was the Lek. Light still a bit dull, but toward the northeast more lively. Corn still in the fields everywhere; large mushrooms beginning to attach themselves to the trees. Beatrixsluis and Plofsluis to Jutphase brug (the old sailboat just passing underneath) and Merwedekanaal. The news is full of the White House meeting later today. A new attempt by Europe and Ukraine to swing the administration back toward their position. It should not be necessary, but it's where we are. Theoretically, there's a way to inch forward, thanks to U.S. noises about a possible role in a security guarantee. But for real steps toward some kind of peace we first need some jolts to get Moscow to back off. Little sign of those being lined up; no sign of any Russian inclination to pull back. Even a cease-fire-in-place seems out of reach for the foreseeable future.

August 16, 2025

 Saturday. Left a little past 8:30. Blacksmith. Overcast, moderate breeze out of the north. Cool-ish, even some very thin drizzle leaving the city, but not enough for wet pavement. Straatweg to Maarssen, then across the ARK and north, all the way to the Nescio bridge. Few people, some good views, and the trucks of the waterways with their curious names. Fishermen (all men, apparently) with their gear north of Maarssen. Nescio to Schellingwouderbrug, then into Waterland. Bike path on the southern edge to Zunderdorp (still torn up) and on to Broek. The little road to Broek empty as usual, save for that humongous tractor and trailer. Why would someone farming in that area need such huge machinery? It's not the only thing that's out of proportion there these days, because the greatest deception came on the way back, via Zuiderwoude (still fine), Uitdam, and Durgerdam. The road along the dike has reopened even though the upgrade of the dike is ongoing. First, between Zuiderwoude and Uitdam a new village has appeared north of Uitdam, apparently vacation houses. At least they've tried to build in keeping with the area's architecture, more or less, but it's still more stuff where we don't need any. Worse is that there already, sticking up above the dike, are the high rises on the Almere side. It comes in addition to the new windmills north of the village--not great either. The worst comes after the right turn in Uitdam, when the proliferating high rises in Amsterdam, particularly those at the Oranjesluizen, might as well be in Waterland proper. There appears to be more on the way, so Waterland coming from the north is definitively ruined. The new dike, judging from where is has been completed, one may yet get used to, but it really doesn't matter. IJburg to Muiden. A detour led to the straatweg, the first time in several years. Where there used to be just trees, up ahead on the left, now a big apartment building looms (containing, it became clear later, a supermarket). The whole Krijgsman wilderness has been turned into a posh neighborhood to feed the hungry city, and they're not done yet. The old buildings are still there, but they almost disappear amid all that's new. Apparently they're planning to build on the south side of the straatweg also. No great loss at this point any more, what with the new freeway, and the way they're filling in the Bloemendaler Polder. Vecht from Muiden all the way to Utrecht. The monstrosity at the end of the Spiegelweg has ruined that view. Along the Zuwe toward Vreeland the tentacles of the city are also visible, just as earlier on the eastern shore of the Vecht, outside Weesp. In the news of course the upshot of the Alaska meeting. The picture of an applauding U.S. president on the tarmac really said it all. To underline how things are, the president afterwards just repeated what he has said before: having been attacked by Russia (he left that out, naturally), it's Ukraine's problem to achieve peace. End the war in a day? Deadlines and ultimatums, threat of sanctions? If stuff gets real, it's someone else's problem. And yet, it could have been worse, and maybe all (of a constructive U.S. role) is not lost. That's what others in positions of responsibility (Zelensky, European leaders) are clearly thinking, also because having the administration openly speaking and working against you would certainly be worse. The president added that the Europeans should step up too, which is, indeed, good advice given how he sees the world. More than ever, this part of the world has to put itself in a position to defend its own interests, starting with helping Ukraine enforce a durable peace. Let's hope it will happen, and still in the current decade, and that in the meantime Ukraine can maintain itself. 

August 14, 2025

 Thursday. Left a little before ten. Blacksmith. Warm again, but with more of a breeze, out of the east. Very thin white clouds to the east, insufficient to do anything about the sun. Grass cutting season everywhere. Young swans with their elders at several points. Blauwkapel, Ruigenhoek, to Westbroek. Tienhoven, Scheendijk, Bloklaan to Loosdrecht. People out, but given the weather and the time of year it wasn't bad. 28 degrees on the way to Nieuw Loosdrecht. Past the airfield and on the trails through the fields toward Groenekan. Newspaper from Van der Neut. By the trail underneath the freeway, the blackberry bushes seemed thoroughly picked over. In the paper reports on the on-line meeting yesterday previewing the Alaska summit. A cease fire would be nice, but without indications (there are none) that Moscow has given up on the goals behind its war, it won't mean too much and it will not last very long. The president is going to find out, perhaps now in earnest, that his envisioned partner in the Kremlin could not care less about stopping the killing. It is somewhat of a question what he'll do next, but I would truly be surprised if a reaction centered around confronting Moscow. 

August 13, 2025

Thursday. Left at ten. Blacksmith. Warm already, bright sun, hazy in the distance, a hint of a cloud here and there, uninteresting light, light winds from the southwest. Merwedekanaal to the refreshingly unassuming, mid-20th century waterfront at Vreeswijk's Handelskade. Then Lekdijk beyond Jaarsveld. Quiet on the river; cows standing in the water. Lopik to Polsbroekerdam. Young swans practicing floating with one flipper on their backs. Benschop to Zijdewetering and Zuid IJsseldijk. Loosestrife still going strong; brown plume reeds in many places. Meerlopad to Nedereindseweg, and eventually parallel to the freeway, then underneath toward the Leidsche Rijn and back into town. The on-line discussion today between the Europeans and the Americans in anticipation of the Alaska summit is all over the news. The impossible European task to influence a president who tends to see the Russian president as a partner at least as much as he sees Europe as one. And even if today yields some kind of common approach, it could be easily be discarded on Friday. There is news that Russia may be behind a hack of U.S. Federal Court filing system; if Putin says it wasn't them, the president will probably believe him. Europe's task today is impossible also because Europe has only recently begun to make itself a little less dependent on Washington for defense. There are serious plans, but most still need to be developed. In the meantime, the Russian president does not have to take Europe so seriously. With a U.S. president who is incapable of defining the war in Ukraine properly--as a Russian campaign to beat a neighbor into submission--he may not have much to worry about from Washington either. 

August 9 and 10, 2025

 Saturday. Left a little after nine. Sunny, a trace of white cloud cover in the distance, light southwesterly breeze. Still vacation time, but the students are beginning to return. Nikor. Yellow bridge to 't Zand and Alendorperweg. Rivierpad and Breudijk. Everything quiet, plant life still flourishing, where it is allowed to. Full willow trees, small and larger, in Gerverscop limiting the views to the North. Perhaps one car the entire stretch, perhaps none. Two white herons alongside the Schutterskade, together with a stork. Galgerwaard a little busier, and Breukelen, Gunterstein, and Scheendijk too. Veenkade deserted. Herenweg and Oud Zuilen back to town, with plenty of people heading out along the Vecht. Cycleworks, and home on the Blacksmith.
Sunday. Left at ten. Blacksmith. Sunny, a few clouds, light winds from the northwest. Blauwkapel to Groenekan. Paced by a six-man group to the Soestdijkerstraatweg. Right toward Soest and the Eng: corn and in the middle a different crop, just getting started. Eemweg, Hilhorstweg, and at Amersfoort left at Birkhoven to Soesterweg. Up Utrechtseweg (quiet), down toward the grandparents (save for solar panels in the Lorenzstraat, everything just as it used to be), then up Aruba and de Genestet. All quiet. Zeisterspoor to Mercury to Schaerwijde. Around Zeist to Amelisweerd and Mos. In the news the Alaska meeting. Its scheduling alone is a victory for the Kremlin. The more people during the run-up speak of a new Munich, the less likely we will actually get one. But as is now the rule: whatever the outcome, it can all change again within a few days. What is unlikely to change, are Moscow's ultimate aims or its president's willingness to have his people pay any price in their pursuit (to say nothing of what the Ukrainians have to sacrifice every day to fend off Russia's attacks). We need more economic and financial measures against the regime, more assistance to Kyiv. A dictatorship is strong and robust, until cracks start to appear; then the whole thing can come down fairly fast. Unfortunately, we have a president primarily interested in some kind of deal, one to precede all kinds of other deals with Russia, a president who still needs to show himself capable of confronting the tyrant and follow through. (What he has shown, is the ability to bully weaker, dependent parties). And so, five days before the meeting, the chances we'll get another Munich scenario are far too good.

August 7, 2025

 Thursday. Left at ten. Nikor. Summer, with partly cloudy skies and light breezes from the southwest picking up a little along the way. Quiet city on the way out by way of the Merwedekanaal. Detour in Nieuwegein with the signs eventually leaving you to your own devices. Vreeswijk to Beatrixsluis to the oasis of Tull en 't Waal. Lange Uitweg to Lekdijk. The river very quiet, and especially the marshy shores beautiful. Left at Beusichemse weg to Nachtdijk (apples) and Werkhoven. Achterdijk and Vechten back to town and Mos. In the paper early reports on the latest talks in Moscow. The president's deadline was tomorrow, but of course there will be no action now since the two presidents may meet soon (or not). Meanwhile, according to Moscow the talks had been very good--naturally--and also went into the possibilities for broader U.S.-Russia cooperation. Speak loudly and carry no stick.

August 3, 2025

 Sunday. Left a little after 9:30. Blacksmith. Summer, partly cloudy, white and gray-ish clouds, uninteresting light. Fairly stiff breezes from the northwest. Back to Amersfoort by way, mostly, of the F 28 bike route: de Bilt (my own route on the outside), the bricks of the Julianalaan, then alongside the tracks. Run in, once again, with German. Amersfoortse berg "best kant," then Lorenzstraat and Stepensonstraat on the way to Arubalaan/de Genestetlaan. Konijnenbos to Mercury. Various authorities in the hunt for the delinquent wolf. Back through Amelisweerd. Nature just a tad less vibrant than last week, though still lush. People out, but never busy. 

August 1, 2025

Left around 9:15. Nikor. Rainy with some intense showers and occasional clearing, so interesting skies and vistas. Gusty breezes from the northwest, and on the cool side. Straatweg to Loenen, then Vecht to Nigtevecht and across the ARK. Back in the '80s, the (non)view of the city, including Southeast, was interrupted by the new hospital colussus; now, that's dwarfed by the soccer stadium, the ever increasing number of high-rises surrounding it, and even the distant towers on the city's southern edge. Velterslaan with its tight rows of willows, now in full leaf. Together with the high and thick reeds, they provided considerable shelter from the wind. In other places also help from bushes and trees. Gein to Gaasp to Diem. There a serious shower, but most of it caught by the tree cover. ARK to Ringvaart to Javaplein. In the paper a long story on the Russian (shadow) fleet and what countries especially buy Russian oil and petroleum products. Those countries are unlikely to change their transactional (often explicitly anti-Western) approach, and so other ways have to be found to increase the price of the war for Moscow. On the Ukrainian battlefield and in the skies above the country simultaneously, it has to become clear that all Moscow can achieve is a stalemate that's at least as costly for Russia as for Ukraine, if not more so. With the administration in Washington focused, let's say, on other things, we're not likely to get the comprehensive pressure campaign on Russia that's required. And yet, we have to try, which also means somehow getting the U.S. to do more. This month we may find out if the U.S. president is actually capable of confronting Putin. From Javaplein to BG2 through the tourist zoo that is downtown Amsterdam right now. Then a quick trip back and forth on the ferry across the IJ. Busy on the ferry, but on the way back a clear view of a ridiculously tall cruise ship visiting the city, obscene, really. Amstel to Ouderkerk, there a couple of detours leading to the Amstelzijweg and eventually the Holendrechterweg. South, parallel to the freeway. Spectacular wild roses among the reeds on the other side of the sound wall. Oukoop, Nieuwer ter Aa, then tailwind along ARK to Lage Weide. Daphne back into town. 

July 31, 2025

 Thursday. Left at about quarter to ten. Blacksmith. Partly sunny, mild, moderate breezes from the northwest. A quiet morning in the city and outside. Full summer, as in prospering hydrangeas at many farm houses, pears coming along, corn just about ready to eat, and magnificent wildflower fields and borders everywhere. Koningsweg, Vechten, Achterdijk, Werkhoven, 't Goy, and into Schalkwijk by way of the Spoordijk. Spectacular Loosestrife at the Verdronken Bos. Strijpweg to the levee. Beatrixsluis, Jutphase Brug, and Merwedekanaal back into the city, to Cycle Works, then Mos. In the paper some reporting on the ongoing preposterization of what once was a moderate center-right party (the one led for years by the current Secretary-General of NATO), but now appears to be dominated by opportunists and (in the provinces) radicals. In parliament this week they requested that, defense spending being raised, the Netherlands get another aircraft carrier. Between 1948 and 1968 the Dutch navy did have such a boat, but even then its military utility seems to have been minor, certainly compared to the costs. To advocate the purchase of a new one today (the best argument apparently is that the country still owns some territory in the Caribbean) is so transparently opportunistic as to be more than a little sad for a party that used be made up of serious people.

July 28, 2025

 Monday. Left a little before ten. Blacksmith. Mild, partly cloudy (good clouds), moderate breezes from the north. To the Vecht, on the way to Nederhorst den Berg to ask G, who was there way back when, how N in the late '40s and early '50s could spot things in the landscape that today one could not possibly expect to see. (For example, Kortenhoef church from a first-floor window at the Muiderslot). A quiet Monday morning, but other people able to take advantage of the summer weather. Detour at the Zandpad before Breukelen, and the green along the Nieuweweg was just perfect. At one place what seemed like a few mushrooms (already!). Scheendijk and back to the Vecht. An advantage of the ridiculous new bridge at Vreeland is that car traffic is way down on that section. Coffee in the Blijk, and the answer to the question: back then, and especially during the war, people cut down trees and branches all the time for heating. The landscape was just much more barren than today. G himself had gone out recently to try and get some of N's views, but in vain. On top of that, but not the main reason, you have all the new construction blocking views, ruining vistas. It clouded over, sending us inside just before a few short, intense showers. The roads were still wet (at least the asphalt was) on the way back. Horstermeer with its narrow, gravely bike paths, Herenweg, Kwakel, Emmaweg, Kerkelanden, airfield, Korssesteeg. On the two-track concrete trail toward Groenekan, a fairly unspoiled view of the Dom up ahead for as long as the bushes half-way block the new high rises. Newspaper from Van der Neut. The effort in Taiwan to recall some KMT parliamentarians has failed, and China is pushing back on the deal to sell Chinese interests in some Panamanian ports. Meanwhile, the American president has shortened the time period in which Moscow has to agree to a cease fire, and the EU has decided to capitulate partly to the same leader on trade. It would be nice if we had some meaningful U.S. action against Russia in a week or two; and it would be something if the trade deal actually held, if new threats or demands did not materialize. According to the current U.S. administration, the vital contest is with China. A "deal" there would not necessarily be a bad thing, but it would be worth more if it reinforced the status quo around Taiwan, and if was the result of a shared approach by Washington and its traditional friends around the world.

July 27, 2025

 Sunday. Left a little after ten. Blacksmith. Overcast, but gray in a varied way. Mild but virtually no sun. Light winds. It had rained overnight, and here and there under the trees it was damp. Toward Amersfoort, mostly via the new, rapid bike connection "F 28." De Bilt, Bilthoven (the bricks of the Julianalaan). Walkers, riders, and more, all out enjoying the day in the woods. Throughout the day an above-average number of smiles and greetings, not just from other riders. Up the Abraham Kuyperlaan, down the Utrechtseweg (bricks), Westerstraat, up the Vondellaan, down the Hugo de Grootlaan. On the way to the Arubalaan spotted by German and partner. Up the de Genestetlaan, down Laan 1914. Next to Konijnenbos, and along the back of Soesterberg (Mercury) and freeway to Schaerwijde, Huis ter Heide, and eventually Amelisweerd (lush, with some very nice Loosestrife along the Vossegatsedijk). Summer in the city, everything low-key at Mos. Yesterday's paper with a story on the recall effort targeting some KMT parliamentarians in Taiwan. They are, according to the petitioners, too accommodating--maybe even subservient--to the PRC. How to deal with a patient, but determined Beijing, how avoid the fate of Hong Kong in an era where it's anyone's guess what Washington will do tomorrow, and the day after, and then next week? Over the past century, the U.S. has made itself an inevitable power in the world; perhaps we're discovering today that Madeleine Albright's "indispensable power" was accurate after all. It's no surprise that the people of Taiwan are wondering about their options now that they may be on their own.

July 25, 2025

Friday. Left a little before then. Blacksmith. Overcast with some left-over dampness on the pavement. Gray skies, but undulating, and a bit of blue here and there, though it never cleared. The sun was close enough to make a nice area of white in the direction of the city, as seen from Gerverscop. There, and later, very good, clear views in the far distance under the gray canopy. Alendorp, rivierpad (wildflowers in front of the reeds and the corn), Breudijk, Gerverscop. Bright purple Loosestrife (Lythrum salicaria; grote kattenstaart) by the side of the canals here and there, and also clusters of low, little yellow flowers. Schutterskade, Galgerwaard, bridge-caused delay in Breukelen. Scheendijk, Veenkade (a koot with some teenage kids), Middenweg (a duck with some little ones), Herenweg, Oud Zuilen, Mos. Many people out on a mild summer day, but, other than stinking mopeds several times, never busy, thankfully.

 

July 23, 2025

 Wednesday. Left around six. Beautiful summer evening after some mid-day rain. Spectacular left-over skies with cumulus clouds in white and gray interspersed with some elongated ones, and to the southeast some parts in solid gray. Ruygenhoek, and five or more storks in the field amid many more geese. Molenpolder, Westbroek, Korssesteeg, airfield, Hollandse Rading, Maartensdijk. In the woods some slight, left-over dampness from the earlier showers. Dutch dinner and vacation time, and so fairly quiet. Groenekan, de Bilt, and back. Non-stop depressing news from the Middle East. In the papers and among specialists the debate about genocide-yes-or-no. Serious, knowledgeable people coming to different conclusions. When you're a Palestinian civilian under Israeli fire in Hamas-controlled territory, whatever would be the most appropriate term ("human shield" comes into it too), the violence just has to stop. Granting that Hamas, or what's left of it, will never stop fighting Israel and trying to kill Israelis, it is Israel that could do the most in that department. Its partisans like to point out, among other things, the murderous nature of the enemy (correct), and the absence of a reliable negotiating party on the other side (also correct). They also mention how, as they always call it, "the state of Israel" is the only democracy in the region, one that gives its Arab citizens political rights and generally a decent existence within its borders. What they rarely address is state-supported settler aggression against local residents on the occupied West Bank. With regard to Gaza, they don't get much beyond "but Hamas." And the military balance between Israel and its enemies in the region is more in Jerusalem's favor today than perhaps ever before. And yet, the war goes on. It is nothing new, but a big part of the reason has to be found in Israeli politics and society, and how it has been radicalized, already before October 7. Looking back over the past half-century, or longer, it is perhaps no surprise, but still doesn't mean that even a traumatized and threatened democracy does not have choices.

July 19, 2025

Saturday. Lamboing. Left around 10:15. Blacksmith. Warm and sunny, but gradually clouding up ahead of some thunderstorms. Back toward Orvin through the upper valley. Then right, toward Evilard. There, right again, and the climb toward sports and wellness center Magglingen. From zooming in on Google Maps, it appeared that perhaps paved roads would lead back all the way from there to Lamboing. That turned out to be right. First, a kind of bike path at the top of the ridge, with the Bielersee way down, directly below. Then more paved bike path back around the ridge into the upper valley and a fast descent on narrow country roads toward Lamboing. Not very long, but for a loop where you would not expect one truly spectacular. New reports of massive air assaults on Ukrainian cities, while Russian troops also make headway on the ground. The EU has issued some new sanctions on Moscow, but more is needed, and quick. Unfortunately, it is still more than 40 days before Washington may do something more too--if it does. A good thing is that in the meantime Europe can keep buying U.S. weapons to give to Kiev. It's about defense, but it's also about affecting calculations in Moscow. Much more is required in that department from many more countries, first and foremost the U.S. Perverse, meanwhile, is that while the NATO allies have found a way to cooperate, for now, on defense, they may be at each other's throats soon over trade, all thanks to the leadership in Washington. It is hard to see, if a trade war happens, how defense cooperation can continue on the current basis.

July 18, 2025

 Friday. Lamboing. Left around 10:30. Blacksmith. Warm, sunny, light breezes. Took the road to Preles, then a quick right toward Le Chatillon. Looking at the sign again, what yesterday appeared to be a bicycle, today looked more like either an e-bike or a scooter; in other words, the road may just be closed to motorized traffic. Through Lignieres to the little road going west over the ridge: Vy d'Enty. Before the fairly steep climb through the woods there were nice views of the Alps in the distance and of Lake Neuchatel down below. An eagle flew overhead, then drifted off to the left, perhaps looking for easier prey in the field. On the road toward Enges the right turn toward Chaumont, for the climb over the next ridge. Once more a demanding but not very busy road through the woods. Down toward Savagnier was steep and fast; coming up from that side may require a lighter gear than 36x28. Some easy kilometers in the Val de Ruz, but from Dombresson the climb to the Chasseral is underway. Not very difficult until after the right turn at Bugnenets (altitude 1151m), then the tough part to the short downhill at Chalet La Cornette, before the last, easier bit to the pass. Left for a change, all the way to the tower (1607m), which yielded even better views of the line of snow-capped mountains to the southeast. Down to the split and a right turn toward Lignieres/Enges, but then a left turn onto the yesterday's little road toward Nods. Home from there. 

July 17, 2025

 Thursday. Lamboing. Left around eleven. Blacksmith. Near perfect weather after some apparent dampness earlier: partly cloudy, mild, less wind than yesterday. Easy day, mostly in the upper valley. To Nods (885 altitude), then a beautiful little road along the bottom of the ridge through Combes connecting to the road to Le Chasseral, up from Enges. Left for a bit of descending, then right toward Enges. Great views of Lake Neuchatel before the descent through town. Some struggling vacationers riding up the other way. Hard left at Le Maley, then Frochaux (altitude 627) and on to Lignieres. There, a right turn onto Le Chatillon, a narrow but paved road that for some reason bans cars, motorcycles, and, apparently also bicycles, "autorisation ecrite excepte." Nobody bothered me, because hardly anyone was there, at the opposite side of the valley from Nods and Diesse. Left at the end, on the Preles-Diesse road, then right, back to Lamboing (altitude 820). In the news reports that NATO will send new Patriot systems to Ukraine expeditiously. May it be fast indeed, and may it be the beginning of more rapid shipments of other stuff.

July 16, 2025

 Wednesday. Lamboing. Left around 10:15. Blacksmith. Cooler, partly cloudy, and a fairly stiff southwesterly breeze. The road through the upper valley to Orvin. A group of wheeled cross-country skiers coming toward me. Left and up in Orvin, and another climb requiring work. It got less steep at the ski lift (where the bus turns back to Biel), but then kicked up again. My map predicted that the asphalt would end somewhere up there, but it never did. A quiet little road past meadows and farms, up all the way to a road called Les Colisses (Pont des Anabaptistes). Two French-speaking women on horseback unaware of the approaching rider, and at the top a few hikers putting on their boots. The descent was quite scenic and very deserted, aside from cowbell sounds near and far. Then a split with a choice of towns in the valley, way down below. Cortebert (and initially also Corgemont) soon visible way down below, at the start of a steep descent (coming up from Cortebert would be pretty tough). Left at the highway, into the wind toward Saint Imier. Left again for the climb back over by way of the Col du Chasseral. The 10% grades, or just below, take it out of one, and this ascent was slow and arduous. Pretty nonetheless, and very quiet after the left turn off the road to Neuchatel. All downhill, by way of Nods, from the top. 

July 15, 2025

 Tuesday. Lamboing, above Twann. Left around 10:45. Blacksmith. Our part of the hill covered in clouds, and some left-over dampness on the roads. Warm on the climbs in the sun, cool-ish on some of the shaded descents. Down the road toward Le Neuveville, through Preles with its fine views of the lake (and, allegedly, the Alps). Overshot, and thus the entire climb from Le Neuveville to Lignieres, requiring some effort. Left at Lignieres, then right at the split: the little, quiet road toward Latena. Then a switch-back right, at a golf course, onto the road toward Enges, and some more climbing through and past this little village (the signs said altitude 814m). (This is where I realized that this ride was not being recorded). Beautiful farmland, forested areas, nice vistas, and even on the roads to and from the lake front fairly light traffic--all just short of spectacular. Past Enges, at a red Holstein farm, an eagle on a fence post, examining me with interest. Home with the tailwind through Nods. More news about what some naively call a major shift in the White House vis-a-vis Russia. That will be the day (although I'd love to be proven wrong). Also in the news that Moscow reads the 50-day ultimatum as a window-of-opportunity to achieve a break-through ("still no new sanctions!") and that the U.S. Senate still doesn't have a vote scheduled on a bill that would punish countries continuing to buy oil and the like from Russia. Furthermore, questions as to whether Europe--those countries "willing" to put their money where their mouths are on Ukraine--is actually following through on the pledges made this past spring. Meanwhile, the NZZ confirms that Moscow indeed seeks to achieve a break-through in the coming weeks. Push may come to shove sooner rather than later--too soon perhaps for anyone but the Ukrainians themselves to be able to act.

July 13, 2025

 Sunday. Lamboing, Jura, above the Bielersee, Switzerland. Blacksmith. Left around 10:15. Partly sunny, fairly warm, little wind. Small villages on the way to Nods, with good views of the meadows just below, to the left, and eventually also, way down, Lake Neuchatel. To the right, way up, the tower of the Chasseral. Start of the climb in Nods. Fairly steep at first, then a section where it was easier, but from the split to Lignieres a couple of hard kilometers. No rush, but still hard work. Passed by the Sunday special sports car club, some cars, some motorcyles; a good number of riders already coming down the hill. At the Col du Chasseral (1500+ m) a quick turn around and a fast, bumpy descent. On the way up, the original plan to do a loop counterclockwise by way of St Imier first got changed to an out-and-back to said town, but soon just getting to the top was enough for the first day back in the mountains. A good thing too, for on the way back from Nods some dark gray clouds gathered rapidly behind over the ridge, and as soon as I got off the bike the first raindrops fell. It would have been just a half-hour, warm water shower, but it's better to keep the pearl white clean. In the news the see, of the constant see-saw: we're sending Ukraine weapons after all, only someone else has to pay for them. Also--and really, "we'll see what happens" here--in 50 days Moscow had better behave, or else. If it wasn't so serious, it really would be a joke.  

July 7, 2025

Monday. Left around 6:15. Blacksmith. Summer, with a stiff wind out of the northwest. On the cool side but with fine skies all around with various kinds of gray and white clouds with lots of room for blue in between. Ruygenhoek, Molenpolder, the ancestral grounds of Westbroek and Achttienhoven. Bushes sufficiently thick along the Korssepad for a little shelter. Airfield to Hollansche Rading and Maartensdijk. Mostly peaceful roads and bike paths during the Dutch dinner time. Just before the bike path to Groenekan cut off by a local--par for the course. Uneventful but not unpleasant ride home by way of de Bilt and Berenkuil. 

July 5, 2025

 Saturday. Left just before ten. Blacksmith. Skies filled with multiple grays, some space for the sun. Cooler, not cool, with moderate breezes out of the southwest. Wayen to Langeweg, something new around the back of Heemskerk. In part it runs right alongside the freeway, but when you look right, you have a good view of the estate. It's a road that gets little traffic--I disturbed hares, ducks, and various kinds of birds. Fresh gravel on the road alongside the canal, where I can't remember seeing any freighters. Schalkwijk and Tetwijksepad (the four towers of Culemborg) to Achterdijk with its shifting views of Schalkwijk and its churches, and the bridges. More fresh gravel on the Lange Uitweg, then wind on the Lekdijk. Vreeswijk and Jutphaas. Waterfront structures going back to the old days, and the same with some of the boats tied to the shore. Pleasantly messy.

July 2, 2025

 Wednesday. Nederhorst den Berg, the old commute. Nikor. Warm, then warmer; virtually no wind, then light breezes out of the west. Day of the spoiled vistas. Already from the car, the Vecht between Vreeland and 't Hemeltje: for a while, we've had that stupid, ugly development (for which the road along the dike had to be cut, so that the owners could have a little marina with river access, leading to the disaster with the new bridge), but now the horse/polo place has built a large, light green barn. So much of new construction in the countryside gets the sizing plain wrong; stuff gets built far too big (and usually too ostentatious also). The two new places at the Overmeerseweg (maybe all three) are a case in point: they reference older architecture, but it's on steroids. Compared to that, the new place at the end of the Ankeveensepad could have been a lot worse, even though it's still pretty bad, especially the way it crowds the path. The "dog" beach (my spot really since the years of the Euromissile Crisis, if not before) was receiving some maintenance. It was deserted aside from two workers on break. The lake I had to myself. On mornings like these, the lake doesn't change (if you ignore the Blijkpolder structures). On the road then, as seen from the 's-Gravelandseweg, a new mansion along the Utrechtseweg facing the river--see above (once/if landscaping is allowed to take over a little, at least that place may get obscured somewhat). Then the Zeedijk at Muiden: that row of bulky, bullying structures is not really new, but today I realized that each gets its part of the green space all the way to the dike for a backyard. What used to be there was a long row of allotments, some maintained very well, others less so, but on the whole it was a place where ordinary folks could garden or just be outside. The users resisted, but in the end had to make way; I remember the angry signs they posted. Superficially looking at the change, one might say that it shows how the country has become wealthier, and this may not be incorrect. Be it would be more precise to say that, as the country has grown wealthier, the old and the ordinary has had to make way for the wealthy and their often vulgar ways. IJburg to Javaplein. In the news the U.S. pause on arms deliveries to Ukraine. Just the next stage in being jerked around by an indispensable but untrustworthy partner. It could be different again next week, until the next time. The sooner this part of the world can take care of these kinds of challenges (air defense), the better. Then Bushuis, then back. It was so warm as to be fairly quiet on the bike paths, but clear: Marken lighthouse visible from the dike before Muiden. After Muiden, on the way to the Hakkelaarsbrug, another spoiled vista, that of the dike running to Muiderberg. Not really new, but those high rises on the other side of the water, stick out like sore thumbs. A little further, the view of Weesp from the Keverdijk also spoiled by new, really new, high rises going up in the Bloemendalerpolder. Self-similarity across scale: from the city itself to private homes and barns, a beast of bigness gradually takes over everything.

June 29, 2025

 Sunday. Left twenty to ten. Blacksmith. Summer day. Sun, light winds, warm, but not hot. People out, but never very busy. Irritating is that on days like these, more and more of those modern moving boxes with kids in them venture outside of the city. De Bilt, past Zeist toward Woudenberg. Griftdijk, Haarweg to Amerongse Berg. In Overberg a group of vintage mopeds, which fortunately headed north. Berg ok, with little traffic. Then Ginkelduin, Haarweg toward Hoogstraat and Ruiterberg. Maarnsegrindweg to Zeisterweg and back toward the city. Overnight another massive Russian air attack on Ukrainian cities. Air defense systems still mostly do their work, and Ukraine's friends had better keep supplying Kiev with more. It would be a good way to start working toward the 5% goal.

June 28, 2025

 Saturday. Left a little before ten. Blacksmith. Gray clouds with just a little blue here and there. Summer, winds out of the west. Crossing at the coffee roasters, I mistook the bus warning signal for the anticipated cyclists' green. It was a day of paying close attention, for people come out on a weekend day in these conditions. Alendorperweg to Rivier Pad with its wide, mowed banks. Breudijk to the world of Gerverskop. From Rodendijk and also Schutterskade, the view of Kockengen is pretty good, not ruined by large barns and the like. Majestic views of the polder to the left from the short elevated part of Galgerwaard. Boat and cabin traffic in Breukelen and all the way to Scheendijk, then peace again. The storks alongside the Bethuneweg on their nest with chicks. Both windmills at Oud Zuilen running. Vecht to Cycleworks, and eventually home. There must be certain bots, all based in the Global South and especially Brazil, checking in here regularly. Yesterday, a two-post day, 888 hits, more than in all of May, but never a comment or other sign of life. Speaking of yesterday, the CGTV appearance (radio, it turned out) went well enough. The other academic seemed a serious, knowledgable guy; the Europe correspondent of the station predictably anti-NATO and not very analytical. They do play it straight as far as I can see: a live broadcast (no editing), and you get the talking points, to which they stick closely during the broadcast, ahead of time. During the broadcast, we all get to address one of the talking points in order. And they let you finish.

The NATO Summit

 Tomorrow morning, I'll be on China Global Television Network's World Today. They have sent me the talking points. As a warm-up, I'll add some preliminary responses.

1. NATO just agreed to a massive increase in defense spending which Trump hailed as a “big win for Western civilization.” Does this mean NATO has emerged stronger and more united?

Stronger and more united than earlier this year, a low bar. Still, the unity on display this week is meaningful, if only because it also reflects how most European member states in recent months have taken more responsibility for their common defense, very much including Ukraine. The Alliance also kept the U.S. president within the fold, maybe pulled him a little closer even, and that certainly counts for something, also because it may reflect a realization in Washington that U.S. interests continue to be at stake in this part of the world, as they were in 1917, 1941, and so on and so forth. And so, U.S. allegiance to NATO may actually last.

2. Mark Rutte cited the rising threat from Russia as the primary reason for the spending hike, saying Moscow will be capable of launching an attack on NATO members within three to five years. How credible is that assessment, or is the threat being overstated to justify rearmament? 

The exact time-frame is uncertain, but Russia's intentions are not. Just this week, Putin said that "wherever a Russian soldier sets foot, that's ours." It's just the latest in a long line of actions and pronouncements confirming his hostility to the West in general and NATO in particular, and it also brings to mind how he has not accepted losing the sphere of influence Stalin established in 1945. His assault on Ukraine aims to end that state's independent existence, but it is also a first step in pushing back NATO from the old sphere of influence. 

 

3. The 5% defense spending goal brings NATO military investment to levels not seen since the Cold War. Could it trigger a new arms race? 

We have been in a new arms race for a while now, in Europe, in Asia, in de Middle East. 

4. European leaders now frame massive military spending as a necessity in an increasingly volatile world. But how much of this volatility has been created or worsened by Western policy decisions over the past 20 years? 

Just talking about Europe, and specifically Ukraine, the West has been faced with a dilemma in the past two decades: live up to its own principles and pronouncements and open a path for a democratic Ukraine to EU and NATO membership, versus risking an angry and eventually aggressive response from Moscow. By emphasizing the importance of the former over the risk of the latter, one could say that the West has contributed. But that conclusion assumes that trying to maintain a constructive relationship with Putin's regime could have succeeded. However, right up to February 2022, there was plenty of that (think of Nordstream 2), in spite of what everyone should have known about Putin's intentions since his outburst at the Munich Security Conference in 2007, certainly since his attack on Ukraine in 2014. So a better answer would be that, yes, the West has contributed to the volatility by not doing what it belatedly started doing with Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Western appeasement, instead of confrontation, helped to get us where we are now. 

5. During the summit, Trump likened the US strikes on Iran to the atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Do you find that kind of comparison worrisome, and does it signal a more aggressive doctrine that NATO may now be tied to? And Does NATO risk being drawn into US-led Middle East policies that may not align with European interests?

We would all be better off if we didn't pay so much attention every time the president says something on social media or elsewhere. As far as NATO is concerned, it is increasing its deterrent capabilities so as to remove any doubt in the mind of the adversary that a new attack will cost it way more--militarily, politically--than could possibly be gained. 

6. How do you view Mark Rutte’s flattery of Trump for his Iran strikes, even calling him “the Daddy”? Do you think he’s bending too far to keep Trump onside? Or is this just what modern transatlantic leadership looks like?

I would not want to be in Rutte's shoes right now. Let's just say that NATO had a rather successful summit meeting, one many people did not think was possible a couple of months ago. It's not all Rutte, but it certainly did not hurt to have a secretary-general who has managed to have a working relationship with this president.

7. Do you think the increased defense spending is enough to keep the US engaged in NATO? 

One can never really tell with the current administration, but since U.S. interests are at stake with a Europe that is prosperous and willing enough to keep buying U.S. products and able to handle most security challenges by itself, I would say: yes.

8. The 5% target could divert enormous national resources toward defense. What will be the social cost of this rearmament? And will leaders be able to balance domestic pressure with their commitment to the alliance?

It has been pointed out this week that a much less prosperous Western Europe managed to do this during the Cold War. Much of this is political, the ability of politicians to make the case to their populations, and nothing in these matters is automatic. But because of Russia's assault on Ukraine the populations of many European countries have already accepted that the security situation on the continent has deteriorated, and that this has consequences for the way of life in this part of the world. When we're talking about NATO today, it's not the old, Cold War alliance. Instead, it includes Eastern European countries who have a very different view of the Russian threat from, say, Spain or Italy. And it now includes Finland and Sweden, two countries that only joined after it became crystal clear in 2022 what Putin's intentions really are. 

9. Trump publicly attacked Spain for spending too little and threatened to impose higher tariffs on Spain for not meeting the 5% target. Are we seeing a dangerous fusion of security obligations and trade coercion?

See the beginning of the answer to question 5. 

10. As a product of the Cold War, is NATO increasingly out of step with today’s multipolar world? And do you think it’s still operating with a Cold War mindset which may now be exacerbating global insecurity rather than reducing it? 

NATO's strength has always been its ability to evolve with a changing international environment. After this week's summit, one could say that the alliance currently is as much a product of Putin's war as it is an inheritance of the Cold War. There are parallels with the Cold War, and Cold War thinking, today, but a much more relevant and dangerous mindset is the Russian imperial mindset pronounced and practiced by Putin.