June 29, 2025

 Sunday. Left twenty to ten. Blacksmith. Summer day. Sun, light winds, warm, but not hot. People out, but never very busy. Irritating is that on days like these, more and more of those modern moving boxes with kids in them venture outside of the city. De Bilt, past Zeist toward Woudenberg. Griftdijk, Haarweg to Amerongse Berg. In Overberg a group of vintage mopeds, which fortunately headed north. Berg ok, with little traffic. Then Ginkelduin, Haarweg toward Hoogstraat and Ruiterberg. Maarnsegrindweg to Zeisterweg and back toward the city. Overnight another massive Russian air attack on Ukrainian cities. Air defense systems still mostly do their work, and Ukraine's friends had better keep supplying Kiev with more. It would be a good way to start working toward the 5% goal.

June 28, 2025

 Saturday. Left a little before ten. Blacksmith. Gray clouds with just a little blue here and there. Summer, winds out of the west. Crossing at the coffee roasters, I mistook the bus warning signal for the anticipated cyclists' green. It was a day of paying close attention, for people come out on a weekend day in these conditions. Alendorperweg to Rivier Pad with its wide, mowed banks. Breudijk to the world of Gerverskop. From Rodendijk and also Schutterskade, the view of Kockengen is pretty good, not ruined by large barns and the like. Majestic views of the polder to the left from the short elevated part of Galgerwaard. Boat and cabin traffic in Breukelen and all the way to Scheendijk, then peace again. The storks alongside the Bethuneweg on their nest with chicks. Both windmills at Oud Zuilen running. Vecht to Cycleworks, and eventually home. There must be certain bots, all based in the Global South and especially Brazil, checking in here regularly. Yesterday, a two-post day, 888 hits, more than in all of May, but never a comment or other sign of life. Speaking of yesterday, the CGTV appearance (radio, it turned out) went well enough. The other academic seemed a serious, knowledgable guy; the Europe correspondent of the station predictably anti-NATO and not very analytical. They do play it straight as far as I can see: a live broadcast (no editing), and you get the talking points, to which they stick closely during the broadcast, ahead of time. During the broadcast, we all get to address one of the talking points in order. And they let you finish.

The NATO Summit

 Tomorrow morning, I'll be on China Global Television Network's World Today. They have sent me the talking points. As a warm-up, I'll add some preliminary responses.

1. NATO just agreed to a massive increase in defense spending which Trump hailed as a “big win for Western civilization.” Does this mean NATO has emerged stronger and more united?

Stronger and more united than earlier this year, a low bar. Still, the unity on display this week is meaningful, if only because it also reflects how most European member states in recent months have taken more responsibility for their common defense, very much including Ukraine. The Alliance also kept the U.S. president within the fold, maybe pulled him a little closer even, and that certainly counts for something, also because it may reflect a realization in Washington that U.S. interests continue to be at stake in this part of the world, as they were in 1917, 1941, and so on and so forth. And so, U.S. allegiance to NATO may actually last.

2. Mark Rutte cited the rising threat from Russia as the primary reason for the spending hike, saying Moscow will be capable of launching an attack on NATO members within three to five years. How credible is that assessment, or is the threat being overstated to justify rearmament? 

The exact time-frame is uncertain, but Russia's intentions are not. Just this week, Putin said that "wherever a Russian soldier sets foot, that's ours." It's just the latest in a long line of actions and pronouncements confirming his hostility to the West in general and NATO in particular, and it also brings to mind how he has not accepted losing the sphere of influence Stalin established in 1945. His assault on Ukraine aims to end that state's independent existence, but it is also a first step in pushing back NATO from the old sphere of influence. 

 

3. The 5% defense spending goal brings NATO military investment to levels not seen since the Cold War. Could it trigger a new arms race? 

We have been in a new arms race for a while now, in Europe, in Asia, in de Middle East. 

4. European leaders now frame massive military spending as a necessity in an increasingly volatile world. But how much of this volatility has been created or worsened by Western policy decisions over the past 20 years? 

Just talking about Europe, and specifically Ukraine, the West has been faced with a dilemma in the past two decades: live up to its own principles and pronouncements and open a path for a democratic Ukraine to EU and NATO membership, versus risking an angry and eventually aggressive response from Moscow. By emphasizing the importance of the former over the risk of the latter, one could say that the West has contributed. But that conclusion assumes that trying to maintain a constructive relationship with Putin's regime could have succeeded. However, right up to February 2022, there was plenty of that (think of Nordstream 2), in spite of what everyone should have known about Putin's intentions since his outburst at the Munich Security Conference in 2007, certainly since his attack on Ukraine in 2014. So a better answer would be that, yes, the West has contributed to the volatility by not doing what it belatedly started doing with Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Western appeasement, instead of confrontation, helped to get us where we are now. 

5. During the summit, Trump likened the US strikes on Iran to the atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Do you find that kind of comparison worrisome, and does it signal a more aggressive doctrine that NATO may now be tied to? And Does NATO risk being drawn into US-led Middle East policies that may not align with European interests?

We would all be better off if we didn't pay so much attention every time the president says something on social media or elsewhere. As far as NATO is concerned, it is increasing its deterrent capabilities so as to remove any doubt in the mind of the adversary that a new attack will cost it way more--militarily, politically--than could possibly be gained. 

6. How do you view Mark Rutte’s flattery of Trump for his Iran strikes, even calling him “the Daddy”? Do you think he’s bending too far to keep Trump onside? Or is this just what modern transatlantic leadership looks like?

I would not want to be in Rutte's shoes right now. Let's just say that NATO had a rather successful summit meeting, one many people did not think was possible a couple of months ago. It's not all Rutte, but it certainly did not hurt to have a secretary-general who has managed to have a working relationship with this president.

7. Do you think the increased defense spending is enough to keep the US engaged in NATO? 

One can never really tell with the current administration, but since U.S. interests are at stake with a Europe that is prosperous and willing enough to keep buying U.S. products and able to handle most security challenges by itself, I would say: yes.

8. The 5% target could divert enormous national resources toward defense. What will be the social cost of this rearmament? And will leaders be able to balance domestic pressure with their commitment to the alliance?

It has been pointed out this week that a much less prosperous Western Europe managed to do this during the Cold War. Much of this is political, the ability of politicians to make the case to their populations, and nothing in these matters is automatic. But because of Russia's assault on Ukraine the populations of many European countries have already accepted that the security situation on the continent has deteriorated, and that this has consequences for the way of life in this part of the world. When we're talking about NATO today, it's not the old, Cold War alliance. Instead, it includes Eastern European countries who have a very different view of the Russian threat from, say, Spain or Italy. And it now includes Finland and Sweden, two countries that only joined after it became crystal clear in 2022 what Putin's intentions really are. 

9. Trump publicly attacked Spain for spending too little and threatened to impose higher tariffs on Spain for not meeting the 5% target. Are we seeing a dangerous fusion of security obligations and trade coercion?

See the beginning of the answer to question 5. 

10. As a product of the Cold War, is NATO increasingly out of step with today’s multipolar world? And do you think it’s still operating with a Cold War mindset which may now be exacerbating global insecurity rather than reducing it? 

NATO's strength has always been its ability to evolve with a changing international environment. After this week's summit, one could say that the alliance currently is as much a product of Putin's war as it is an inheritance of the Cold War. There are parallels with the Cold War, and Cold War thinking, today, but a much more relevant and dangerous mindset is the Russian imperial mindset pronounced and practiced by Putin. 

June 25, 2025

 Wednesday. Left around 6:45. Blacksmith. Warm, a little humid, little wind. Blauwkapel to Ruygenhoek. There, two lapwings in the field, a swan with two young in the water, and a stork right by the bike path (it flew-hopped across the canal as I approached). People at the swimming corner. Molenpolder to Nedereindsevaart. Westbroek (a couple of guys sitting outside at the bar), Achttienhoven, Korssesteeg. Dutch dinner time conditions, but there were more people taking advantage of a near perfect day. Egelshoek to Hollandsche Rading (where the restaurant was packed, with cars parked all along the road), and Maartensdijk, to the end of the Embranchementsweg. Headed toward Groenekan, passed by a loud, fast, stinking light motor bike; without wind the smell hangs around. A two-train wait at Groenekan, then de Bilt, and Utrechtseweg back into the city. No surprise to see the bars and restaurants full there also. This was the day of the NATO summit, which seems to have gone well enough. There have been many occasions in the past when allies have struggled to maintain a united front, to send a political message just credible enough for the alliance's military threat to remain real. This week, the language of the various statements was vague enough to paper over the contrast between the principles NATO is supposed to stand for and the beliefs and practices of a considerable number of its member governments--that of the largest member not excepted. And the pledge to increase defense spending, if not taken literally, is real, to judge from the steps the European members have been taking in recent months. Much juggling and follow-through remains on the table, but, having set a low bar for itself this week, you could see the alliance as having had a successful summit meeting.

June 23, 2025

 Left just after 9:15. Blacksmith, in spite of recent showers and lingering sprinkles. Cooler, with gusty winds out of the west, strong enough to bring down small branches. Good skies, with moving white and gray clouds and room for sun. Blauwkapel to Hooge Kampse Plas to Bilthoven and Den Dolder. The high-speed bike path to Amersfoort is finished--good for safe and swift riding, but in the end it's still a new concrete road alongside the woods where there used to be a trail and more trees. Probably a price worth paying if it gets some folks out of their cars. Berg by way of my Belgian segment, then down Utrechtseweg. At the Arnhemseweg a sudden, unexpected, and unobstructed view of the tower in the old city. Korte Bergstraat to tunnel to Soesterkwartier, which had just received a real rain shower, then Hilhorstweg. Coming through the left curve, suddenly the Oude Kerk in the distance. Up the Eng. The crops and wildflowers are rising fast. Left to Molenstraat, Smitsweg, and Dorpsstreek all the way to Wieksloterweg. Maartensdijk to Groenekan. Newspaper from Van der Neut. A guest column on who gets to have nuclear weapons and why, covering some relevant aspects but by no means all. As if to illustrate the extent to which the international system built after 1945 has disintegrated, it didn't contain even one reference to the NPT. 

June 21, 2025

 Saturday. Left at ten. Blacksmith. Clear blue sky (later some very vague, distant whiteness to the northeast), warm, breezes from the southeast. Vechten, Achterdijk, Hollendewagenweg, Nachtdijk. Goybrug with Ellen van Dijk passing on the roadway. Lekdijk with a few too many motorcycles. Recreational area at Tull en 't Waal busy, with lots more cars on the way. Plofsluis to Merwedekanaal, and a second Ellen van Dijk passage, this time she came up from behind as we merged at the Structuurbaan before the Blauwe Brug. Merwedekanaal back to Mos. Too sunny, too warm, too busy to see much that was interesting. In the news the kiss-of-death for the NATO 5% goal, since not only Spain, but now also Washington seeks an exception. Never miss an opportunity to throw a spanner into the works. This could be a way out: everyone seeks to match the current U.S. level of defense spending; this way the U.S. can continue to cover its many global commitments, and the European allies can use the extra funds to boost their own, collective defense while making the domestic trade-offs a little less daunting.  

June 18, 2025

 Wednesday. Left a little after ten. Blacksmith. Summer, with northwestern breezes and fairly uninteresting skies. Clear, but hazy in the far distance. Yellow bridge to Hermelijnvlinderpad. At one of those permanent table tennis tables I saw a middle-aged Chinese couple playing expertly, all by themselves. Alendorperweg, Rivierpad, Breudijk to the world of Gerverskop. The corn is on its way. At Gerverskop a swan couple in the tall grass, the heads of their chicks just visible. White and yellow lilies alongside the Rodendijk. Breukelen, Scheendijk, the oasis of the Veenkade. Vecht back to town. Newspaper at Mos. Now we have an ultimatum from Washington to Teheran. Complete surrender, or else. "Else" in this case in a few days could be something along the lines of "I never said that," but it could also be the beginning of something worse. A best case, "regime change," could simultaneously be its opposite. You break something, you own it, but the issuer of the ultimatum never owns anything; when the going gets tough or a long-term, calm commitment is required, it's someone else's problem. Long-term commitments overseas are a challenge in the best of circumstances, but now a positive U.S. contribution to a more benign Iranian future seems especially unlikely.

June 13, 2025

 Friday. Berlin-Prenzlauerberg. Left a little after 9:30. Focus. Summer. Back to the Teltow Canal at Adlershof; a little more efficient and less trafficy than the way up yesterday. Picking up the Mauerweg at the canal meant starting a long section on the south side of the old West Berlin, mostly park or woodlands, with green space on the left (the old GDR) and beyond the trees and bushes on the right the villages of Berlin. Sometimes the route led through a neighborhood, but never for very long. There were long sections on asphalt, but there was gravel also. Some detouring in the neighborhood of Teltow, at a point in the day when I was looking for a good way to head back again. The back-and-forth to the route takes almost as much time as tracing the route itself, which is why, if you only have half a day, you can't do the entire route in three days. So another more-or-less straight shot across town back, this time from the southwest and south. Tempelhof, straight up to downtown, right toward and across Alexanderplatz. In the news the Israeli attack on Iran, which is ominous. One has to think that, just as the Israelis have thought all this through every possible way for years, so Teheran must have been prepared for this (and worse, as in the Americans joining the attacks, which could still happen). It's hard to see, as it always was, that airstrikes alone would set back Iran's progress toward the nuclear weapons threshold very much. Perhaps this attack will push it across. There are other possibilities, not all of them desperate. Less than one day in, it is still hard to say where this will go next.

June 12, 2025

 Thursday. Berlin-Prenzlauerberg. Left after ten. Focus. Berliner Mauerweg. Picked it up at Mauerpark intending to go east and north first, but didn't see an obvious way, and so started following the signs toward downtown. The weather was good, mild, not warm, a breeze. Not a lot of time to look carefully at anything. There was the usual traffic--in the city pretty busy--and spotting the signs pointing out the route required focus and timing. Meanwhile, the road surface varied greatly, and much of it was tricky, for example the not-infrequent cobbled streets. It's urban riding and sign spotting, and so the speed is low and haste is you enemy. Winding my way through the center (my first time there since 1997) brought recognition and surprise in about equal measure. Then neighborhoods and parks further out to the southeast, and eventually the Teltow Canal near Aldershof. That's where I decided to head back, which meant another hour or so clear across the city. One can spend a lifetime getting to know a place like this. 

June 8, 2025

 Sunday. Left a little after ten. Nikor. Stiff shower just prior to departure, and more to come. Shoe covers, Ass Saver, knee warmers, and rain jacket. It would all be put to work. Quickly changing skies, mostly in multiple grays, but also some white and clearing. All of that between some pretty intense showers. De Bilt and Bilthoven to Soestdijk. Up the hill in Soest the first shower. Then a glorious ride across the Eng. The fields green, the bricks shiny, just one Sunday jogger, the windmill right and the church left, and above it all the clouds with the sun finding a little room. Pater van den Breemerweg to Amersfoort in the rain. At the top of the Berg a rain assault that made the tree canopy irrelevant. Zeisterspoor nice and quiet. Amersfoortseweg to Bos en Duin and more rain. Vuursche Boer without any other riders. Home by way of Maartensdijk (parade of dressed-up church-goers), Groenekan. No rain, for a change. The various precautions made it an excellent outing. 

June 7, 2025

 Saturday. Left a little after ten. Nikor. Rainy with winds out of the southwest. West side of the Vecht, into the green on the Daalseweg and the trail, to the bicycle bridge and Oostwaard. Zuilensebrug and Maarssenbroek. Leaving Maarssenbroek a duck with seven or eight chicks crossing the bike path. Not a worry in the world. Around the Haarrijnseplas, Rijneveldsche Bospad, right at Haarzuilens, gradually more and more green. Skies very interesting with many shades of gray, some white, and a good view of where the showers were coming down. On the Hollandse Kade I rode into one spotted already from the Rodendijk. It didn't last long. Views from Rodendijk and Kade at once clear and limited, with near, hazy horizons. Church at Kanis very clear. Houtdijkerpad to Oude Rijn, Breudijk (back among the cars), Tiendweg, Dorpeldijk. Heldamweg to Zandpad back to the city. Rain-wind combination in which you dry out as you get wet; only occasionally more intense rain, and then it got a bit chilly. Commentary on the radio in the morning on the state of play on a possible cease-fire in Ukraine. We have gone from: I can end the war in a day, to berating the victim, to now: letting the parties fight it out for a while. In other words, nothing to offer, other than caprice and hot air with underneath some perverse fascination, if not outright sympathy, with the aggressor. It is all expressed by the man at the top, but he was elected, and he has many eager beavers doing his bidding. They do so out of opportunism, but also because they believe in a short-sighted, selfish approach to the world. We can't yet get by militarily without our old American friends--and one surely wishes it didn't have to be this way--and yet, we will have to.

June 3, 2025

 Tuesday. Left around ten. Focus (test for next week). Mild, sky filled with little gray-white clouds, with an occasional gap for the sun to come through. Southern breezes. Voordorp to Beukenburg. Just before leaving the wooded part, a small squirrel on the road. Contrary to their normal behavior, it didn't move and so I almost rode over its tail. In the meadow the Lakenvelder cows, and two donkeys being very social with each other. Prinsenlaan to Maartensdijk to Eikensteeg to Lage Vuursche. Then around the back to de Kuil and on toward the Hilversum golf course. Going into the woods on a weekday morning does get you away from the world, even when the weather is good. Northwest and over the freeway to Einde Gooi. I had forgotten about the canal alongside the (semi-legal) Huydecopersweg, since you can't see it from the asphalt through Egelshoek. It is not just shielded by the reeds, today it was littered with white waterlilies. Tienhovenskanaal logically was next. People, but mostly focused on being away too. Not too much waterfowl, but the colors near the trail and the canal were spectacular. Also spectacular: the tall rapeseed alongside the Dwarsdijk to Tienhoven. Nedereindseweg to Maarsseveense Plas (nobody on or in it) to Gageldijk. Traffic and a stoplight, but the Klopdijk works. Vecht all the way to the Singel and Mos. The newspaper still talked about the possibility of a collapse of the government, which in the meantime had happened. The best friend of the likes of Orban, Netanyahu, Putin, and Trump has decided the conversation needs to be about migration, and migration alone. It's not surprising, since he essentially announced his departure from the governing coalition a few weeks ago, and it has also become clear that in terms of good governance (professionalism, give-and-take, respect for expertise and institutions, and understanding the consequences of globalization in our time) he's had very little to offer. When the next election comes some time after the summer, we'll have to see if all of his voters will stick with him. It is not impossible, and he may also take some votes from his current coalition partners. But it would seem that his opponents, all the way to the social-democratic/green combination, have an opportunity to put him in his place. You can run on anger for a long time, but eventually you have to get something done. 

June 1, 2025

 Sunday. Left at 8:45. Blacksmith. Mostly overcast with moderate winds out of the west. Mild, but due to the wind and the clouds, hedging with a vest, which was a good idea. Straatweg to Loenen/Kerklaan. The part between Nieuwersluis and Loenen almost entirely without any motorized traffic. Just the estates, birdsong, and too much asphalt. Into the wind past Vinkeveen to Waverveen, then Veldweg toward Amstelhoek. Bridge before De Hoef, then back along the water, toward Vrouwenakker. Past the Langeraarse Plassen to Bilderdam and Leimuiden. Oude Wetering to and around the Braassmermeer, coffee at the Noordkade passage. Past Paddegat to Aderweg and Hoogmade. Still working against the wind and no view of Leiden, but you could almost touch it there. Woubrugge and back to the Braassemer. Then the other side of the Langeraarse Plassen, and entering Ter Aar/Papenveer the first swan chicks of the year. If I had been there yesterday, I might have spotted them in May. Noordeinde to Kromme Mijdrecht and Westerlandweg. Bovendijk, Wilnissezuwe to Spengen. There, a second set of swan chicks, this time tucked into the grass by the side of the canal, with their parents hovering over them. These may not have been there already yesterday. Kockengen to Laag Nieuwkoop and the new nature path. De Haar, Vleuten, and some detours (or opportunities to learn some new roads) in the park due to a running race. Hermelijnvlinderpad to Gele Brug and home. The Green Heart on a mild Sunday during a holiday weekend: you don't really get away from the world, but there are still many places where, at other times, you could. In the news, reports of bombed airfields and bridges in Russia, some very deep inside Russian territory. Impressive displays of asymmetrical warfare, although they will surely bring a response. More air defense systems for Ukraine are crucial in that light. And meanwhile, I still like to think that some day, that one, big bridge (hit earlier in the war) will be hit so hard that for as long as the war goes on, it cannot be rebuilt. It won't be the shock that will bring Moscow to reason, but it will hurt nonetheless. For the war to end, major change in Russia is indispensable, going well beyond the thug at the top. Shocks like those we saw this weekend, could perhaps help bring it about. Barring such change, the war will go on, for Ukraine, but also for all of its friends. Just arguing in general terms the war should end--or that you, as an outsider, can end it--ignores the nature of this conflict. Perhaps the conflict can be frozen in some way; it can only end through a fundamental political and ideological transformation in Russia.