Tuesday, September 29, 2009

No Obama Sell-Out

This is what I wrote in an op-ed for the GPD papers (Netherlands), late last week. I haven't seen the piece on-line anywhere yet, but when it does turn up somewhere, I'll link to it. The thing is, he's trying to institute significant change, and that takes time, especially because an American president today is much less powerful than his prominence in the news would suggest. There is America's reduced financial prowess, there's obstruction from great powers such as China and Russia, there's domestic pressures (protectionism!), and there are those enemies of the U.S.--unpredictable, and in most cases irreconcilable to any kind of international order. But the critics are mostly wrong (or premature): implied in the criticisms from the right is that a foreign policy more akin to that of George W. Bush would be better. But which Bush foreign policy do they mean? The unilateralism of the first term? What did that get us, exactly? Or the milder version of Bush's second term? The latter was certainly moving in the direction of what Obama is trying to do now. Yes, the president did drop his predecessor's missile-defense plans for Eastern and Central Europe--but he hasn't dropped missile defense at all. In a way, charges that he is too soft can't be rebutted, because his approach so far does in many areas emphasize talking instead of bombing. But what about all the dead Taliban and Al Qaeda commanders in Somalia, Afghanistan, and Pakistan? What about his increase in troop levels in Afghanistan during the first months in office? Let's not forget that we're still only eight months into this presidency. There is no telling what the administration might do if the current approach fails to produce the anticipated results in certain cases. But let's not forget either that on almost every tough foreign policy problem today--North Korea, Iran, Israel v. Palestinians--the more muscular alternatives out there look very unappetizing.

Friday, September 25, 2009

Better Commute

Another calm, mild fall day, perfect to ride home the long way (by way of IJburg and Muiden, instead of Weesp--this adds two miles). Had the wind at my back on the little climb up the Nescio bridge, and on the way down I put it in the big ring. With my new chain and cassette, I can use 53x19 without anything rubbing (on the old set-up, only the 17 and bigger would work well). I kept it there all the way into Muiden, doing probably around 20, but as I entered it someone passed me. Yes, another good rider, on a nice bike again. I got on his wheel as we rode through this little city slowly, and I stayed there as he accelerated leaving town. There, we passed another racing-bike-little-back-pack-commuter, but he did not get on the train. My guy didn't try to drop me, which given the nice, straighth and smooth bike path we were on might have been tough. But he did make me work harder than I do on my own on this bike. At the turn-off (Keverdijk) I thanked him for the ride, but he happened to go my way, so I sat on his wheel for two more miles. Then, it turned out he was also going to Nederhorst den Berg, my town. He lives on the outskirts, and I didn't get his name, but we did chat a little at the end. He's about to stop riding to work for the season and will switch to speedskating. He's in the local club. I've met others who are members, so maybe that should be my club on the ice too. I do need a club to make sure I get to the ice at least once a week.

Monday, September 21, 2009

Obama Snub to the Poles and Czechs?

They're changing the missile-defense plans in Washington, and the Wall Street Journal doesn't like it one bit. I'm not sure if I agree with the wider implications the paper draws. More later.

Monday, September 14, 2009

My Commuter Excuses For Not Going Fast

They came in handy today, because on the way home I got dropped plain and simple by a fellow commuter. The excuses I'm talking about are my buttery 1992 carbon Trek 2300 frame, and my 28-wide bullet-proof tires. Other excuses I've gotten rid of one by one. The guy passed me just outside of Amsterdam, near the Nieuwe Diep, I got on his wheel, and together we continued South along the Amsterdam Rijnkanaal. We passed a guy out on a training ride, but he did not get on the train. I was on the wheel for about two miles, working, but not suffering, when we had to go through the little chicane after the river Diem. I dropped back to leave a little room, because you can't really see what's coming from the other side there, but my lead man powered through it so that I came out of the chicane about twenty meters back. I closed the gap, with some difficulty, but the guy had really decided to increase the pressure, and suddenly I was on the limit, a feeling I haven't experienced much on the bike this year. I didn't stay there for very long. It was hard, the legs had not quite recovered from the Sunday ride, and I was beginning to taste again the fig I had put in my mouth when I left work, about six miles back. And then there were the two bike-related excuses. I let him go. He didn't get too far ahead, because up and over the Amsterdam Rijnkanaal bridge, and into and through the city of Weesp I continued to see him ahead of me, the last time as I was entering the Hoogstraat and he was just crossing the bridge across the Vecht river there. He may have been stronger. He certainly looked very good on the bike (a much more recent Trek model with skinny tires), and he had shaved legs (as well as a smaller backpack). But I'm sure that if this had been last week and I had been on the Klein instead, I would have stayed on his wheel happily, maybe even traded a pull or two with him. As it was, he made me go through the kind of experience--the point where you decide to be dropped--I've only experienced behind cars and mopeds this year.

Louis Rosen, R.I.P.

Earlier this month, nuclear scientist Louis Rosen died at the age of 91 in Albuquerque, NM. I knew him a little bit in the mid-1990s during my time at Los Alamos National Laboratory. I was a research assistant at the Center for National Security Studies (dissolved by the lab's leadership immediately following the Gingrich revolution in late 1994), where Rosen was an associate at the time. At CNSS he did policy-related work, but he was also still involved with the lab project that was his primary accomplishment: the huge atom smasher built during the 1960s right along the main access road to the lab, the so-called "truck route." I once interviewed him at his office there for a newspaper piece I was doing on the lab in the post-Cold War era. One of the things Rosen stood out for during my time at the lab was that he was one of the few people left who had come to Los Alamos during World War II to be part of the Manhattan Project. I don't remember much of our interview, but I do remember his account of that cross-country trip. If I can find the time, I'll dig out the tape I made of our conversation.

Sunday, September 13, 2009

More U.S. "snub" to the Poles

Unlike NRC-Handelsblad commentator Juurd Eijsvoogel the other day, the Economist does not believe Washington acted deliberately when it sent a low-level delegation to the World War II commemorations two weeks ago. In its current issue it says the U.S. "botched" this thing. The magazine does believe U.S. - (East)European ties are less close, but there's no talk of an American plan to "encourage" countries such as Poland to develop a more stable relationship with Russia (other than the administration's desire for a "reset" in its own ties with Moscow). Most of this is about Russia: the U.S. (and many other NATO countries) would like to have a more businesslike relationship with Don Putin, one in which Moscow may be willing at times to help advance Western interests in places such as the Persian Gulf or the Korean peninsula. Poland (and also the Baltic states, for instance) want NATO to prepare itself to resist--militarily, if necessary--Russian efforts to regain a sphere of influence in Eastern Europe. You most certainly won't get the former if you do a lot of the latter, but when you're NATO you're also supposed to be an alliance that works for all of its members. Those members, in turn, should of course try to keep a cool head, even when they're next door to a place like Putin's Russia. So what else is new? Discussion, divisions even, in the NATO alliance? These always get worked out one way or another, don't they?

Saturday, September 12, 2009

Plodding v. Glee

A faithful reader from Pittsburgh writes the following:
You write of your commute and your glee at using a somewhat lighter more efficient bike and i just yesterday had exactly the opposite sensation. i showed up at 550 am for a ride with 3 more novice riders. i hadnt really ridden for 5 wks due to whatever mysterious illness had gripped me. I showed up on my ancient mtn bike and spent the 20-25 mile ride trying desperately to hang with these mortals, who lead interesting lives and therefore neglect to put in the required time and effort to rise to the meager level of fitness required of a true pmvc member. I got in a much greater workout than i would have on my road bike as i was carrying at least 10 extra pounds and one always rides harder when faced with the humiliation of being dropped.
So i am thinking of saving the madone for only those rides that require its lightness and perhaps looking to buy a cheap , heavy single speed for my short solo rides within the city , or for use with more recreational riders...
I think we're talking here about the difference between knowing what's good for you (riding the heavier, fender-equipped bike when speed isn't a requirement) and really enjoying a ride ("glee"). I'm afraid that since that last post, two weeks ago, I've become quite partial to glee. A week ago I noticed that the old rear wheel on my commuter (dating back to my days in Pittsburgh in the late 1990s) was out of true. Monday morning before riding to work I quickly tried to fix it, but instead pulled one spoke so tight that it cracked the rim. (I think this rim was ready to die anyway). So for two days I got to ride a really stiff, nice-running bike to Amsterdam: my 2001 aluminum Klein Quantum Race. It's my back-up and winter bike, has a rear fender, and I use 25-wide Gatorskins on it, but if I had to, I would still enter a race on this bike. Yesterday I had my commuter back, with a brand-new rear wheel, and a new cassette and chain. Compared to the way the bike used to run, there was a big change (it pays to replace a chain and cassette from time to time, especially on a year-round commuter!), but compared to the Klein, the 28-wide tires felt as if they were glued to the road, and the 1992 carbon frame felt like butter. For the Klein's sake it's better not to commute on it, because it would take a beating on these rides. And it's probably good for me too, having to work a little harder. It's certainly been nice not to flat even once the whole year thanks to the heavy-duty commuter tires. The problem--I've figured out while writing this--is that most of my riding now comes in the form of these commutes. Most of my riding, in other words, is of the plodding kind. I think that's what I felt yesterday when I got back on the good old Trek. Now I'm not even sure anymore if it's really good for me, physically or mentally.

Friday, September 11, 2009

U.S. "snub" to the Poles--continued

An interesting perspective on this supposed disrespect the Obama administration showed its faithful ally Poland last week, when it sent a low-level delegation to the commemorations of the start of World War II. NRC-Handelsblad commentator Juurd Eijsvoogel today (in Dutch) suggests that there was actually a plan behind Washington's approach, that this was part of a strategy to encourage the Poles (and other East and Central European allies) to find a way to live with big, bad neighbor Russia, instead of primarily relying on the U.S., an ally living far away. It's not that Washington is preparing to sever its ties with the (East) Europeans, but more that the Americans are taking "the next logical step" twenty years after the fall of the Berlin Wall. Presumably he means by this that the U.S. is "normalizing" what during the Cold War had become an abnormally close American relationship with the old continent. That's reminiscent of what Eisenhower and Dulles were hoping to achieve during their first term in office (1953-1957) by way of the ill-fated European Defense Community. Eisenhower and Dulles hoped that the U.S. military involvement (certainly the large U.S. military presence) in Europe could be temporary, that the Europeans could gradually take responsibility again for their own defense (backed, to be sure, by the NATO alliance with the U.S.). That proved to be an illusion. We'll see if Obama and friends will be more successful today. In trying to take this "next logical step," according to Eijsvoogel, they're doing the Poles a service. It's not, he seems to imply, as if the U.S. will maintain its current commitment to Europe's security until the end of days. It opens up an intriguing long-term perspective: America's natural involvement with Europe is really quite distant. The Cold War was an aberration; now that it's over, gradually the U.S. will revert back to a more distant posture. Also given Washington's other headaches in the world today, that's not such a weird proposition. IJsvoogel's conclusions are a bit optimistic: first he says that friend Putin obliged, last week in Gdansk, through his "reassuring" appearance (we'll see about that); second, there's more than a little wishful thinking in the following: "And with all this, an important step forward has been made on the road to a Europe that's really united, free, and secure. With thanks this time to an America that's quiet." Still, it's a column that does what a good column is supposed to do: making you think by way of an original idea.

Saturday, September 5, 2009

Late Summer Coffee Ride

There was a need to catch up on a summer of riding separately, and so an out-of-season coffee ride was scheduled for this morning. As I stepped out of the house, it started raining, even though I could see plenty of clear spots around. It took about four miles of drizzle to ride out from under this grey, curtain-like cloud. It probably also got blown off my course a little. So the roads were wet, but it really wasn't bad, actually quite pleasant thanks to the Northwesterly tailwind. 14 degrees Celcius at 9:26 in Loosdrecht. I think I saw the guy with the dog again near the Hilversum airport, and of course the Sukkel butcher shop in Maartensdijk had customers in it. The girl at the Vuursche Boer brought out our order right away, but she had forgotten how it goes after all this time. (First round should be: two koffie verkeerd, two apple pie, one with whipped cream). Much impressed by the Ventoux stories of the Utrecht delegation (times ranging last Saturday from 1h28', to 1h33' and 1h38'). Windy ride back together to the Vecht river, and we wondered what ever happened to the campaign to prevent the Polder Bethune (near Tienhoven) from being flooded. All the home-made signs have been gone for months now, but I can't find any really recent information. After the turn-off at the Vecht river, all continued to be well with the Coffee Ride world, because I soon ran into the old guy on the tandem. Although, he was alone, riding a regular bike, and he barely looked at me, even though I was wearing long sleeves on what by then was turning into a pretty nice day.

That American "Snub" to the Poles

Earlier this week I wondered why the U.S. sent such a low-level delegation (led by National Security Adviser James Jones) to the Warsaw commemoration of the start of World War II where Chancellor Merkel and Prime-Minister Putin came to represent their countries. My best guess: the administration decided that this wasn't really their commemoration, just like the U.S. back in 1939 didn't really believe that the threat of war in Europe was its problem. We weren't there back in 1939, so let's keep a low profile now also. (I know, doesn't really make sense).

Friday, September 4, 2009

More Own Horn Tooting

Two more issues of my op-ed on Obama and the health care reform mess: the Eindhovens dagblad yesterday, and the Gelderlander last Tuesday. Meanwhile, two comments on the version I mentioned earlier in the August 27 issue of the Brabants Dagblad, both dissenting!

Early Fall Commuting

Rain, wind, long sleeves, and meanwhile the Vuelta on tv. It's definitely early fall, although we're supposed to get more summer days next week. First day of class today, and approaching Weesp, it just did not feel right to ride in the long way, even though that's only two extra miles and I had time. I payed the price a few minutes later, riding along the Amsterdam Rijnkanaal. Three schoolkids came toward me using the whole road and they never moved over. I think it was because they had the sun in their eyes, and, of course, because on this little road virtually without cars they pay no attention whatsoever to anything except themselves. But still, at the last minute I had to steer into the grass to stay clear of them. (Yes, I did yell something angry and profane). I was motoring pretty well, partly thanks to a good tailwind, but also because this summer I've continued to lighten my load on these rides. Last year, I started out with a front fender and mudflap--but it broke in two, last spring. I also used bring a lock, but now I keep one at work, in the bike basement. And I had a seatpost rack, which I used to carry the slippers I wear to get from the showers (in the basement) to my shoes (in my fifth floor office). But last week I got a nice new Pinarello Granfondo backpack at a sale at my new bikeshop, which is not only much nicer than my old pack bought years ago at the Gap, but which also has enough room for my slippers. So I've also taken the rack off. As with the two earlier simplifications, the bike now handles much better. Now, I only have two excuses left for not hammering to and from work: my 28-wide commuter tires, and the fact that the drive train components on this 1992 Trek 2300 are so old, that I really can't get it in a comfortable gear in the big ring. But it feels pretty nice, riding without all that extra weight. So nice that I almost felt like chasing after the 7-8 man group I saw riding out of Amsterdam as I was about to enter it. They were obviously going for a serious training ride, and for a moment I was quite jealous.

Tuesday, September 1, 2009

The West and Russia

So here's what I've been saving all this time: in an interview last July with the Dutch paper NRC Handelsblad, the Obama administration's ambassador to NATO, Ivo Daalder, said that NATO will be able to expand while maintaining a good relationship with Russia, just like in the 1990s. (The english translation I linked to here differs from the Dutch original in the print version from the July 4-5 issue of the paper, although in both the suggestion is made that NATO expansion does not cause problems with Russia). This is of course not what has happenend. On the contrary, NATO expansion is widely cited as one of the main reasons why relations between Russia and the West have deteriorated the past decade. So what is Daalder saying? What does his answer suggest about the Obama administration's view of relations with Russia? Well, Daalder will speak in The Hague this Thursday, so maybe I'll have an opportunity to ask. But think it basically conveys a pretty hard-nosed view of how one should deal with Moscow, not too different from the way Putin approaches his foreign policy. We'll do business where we can, and that's important, but we're not going to worry too much about how you feel about actions on our part that you know are not meant to threaten you. "Hitting the re-set button" in relations with Moscow doesn't signify a fresh start, at least not in the basic approach. Russia, the administration seems to say, is important, but there are also clear limits to the kind of relationship we can have. Vice president Biden's comments this summer (about Russia's backwardness) are also revealing in this respect. They seem to suggest that because of the way the country is being run under Putin, Russia just won't see the world the way the U.S. and the Europeans (in spite of all their differences) do. This has consequences for what we can achieve with Russia, the administration seems to have concluded. In some areas we just should not even try to satisfy Russian demands, because they're not reasonable, and Moscow can't be satisfied anyway because it sees the West primarily as a rival although not with the same intensity as during the Cold War. NATO expansion is an example, and as Daalder continued in the interview: independent countries have fundamental right to choose their alliances. Of course, this doesn't mean that Georgia and Ukraine will enter the alliance any time soon. A more realistic, hard-nosed policy still does not need to be a stupid policy. Allowing these two countries in soon would certainly anger Russia needlessly, and so I doubt if there will be much action there in the near future (the emphasis is likely going to be on all the things these two countries still need to do to meet the criteria for membership). You can see something similar on the issue of the (anti-Iran) missile defense system planned for deployment in the Czech Republic and Poland, where there are rumors that the administration may put that on hold. The Poles aren't happy, just as they're unhappy with the low-level delegation Washington sent to the World War II commemorations this week where many other countries (Germany, Russia) sent their heads-of-government. But whether that's in any way connected to U.S. Russia policy, I'm not sure. Something for a different post anyway.