October 19, 2025

Sunday. Left a little after 9:30. Blacksmith. Crisp, dry fall morning, many cyclists wearing full gloves, although also several still in shorts. Moderate winds out of the southeast under uneven, gray-white cloud cover. The sun did good things with that. Marsdijk and Achterdijk, with some wildflower borders still showing signs of life. Werkhoven to Tuurdijk and Nachtdijk. Headwinds cooler than they have been in a long time, but not really cold, so a very good morning. The river and its banks beautiful, green; the water with some movement but few boats. A few small sails visible in the marina outside of Culemborg. Tailwind and a group to Vreeswijk, then the old waterfront before and after Nieuwegein. ARK to Gele Brug, and into the city to Mos. Yesterday's paper with Friday's confirmation: there will be no Tomahawks for Ukraine for the time being. All it takes is just one phone call for the whole charade to start again. We can look forward once more to an in-person meeting between the Russian and American presidents. The former knows exactly what he wants, and how to get it; the latter not so much, other than domination of the news cycle at home and abroad. For his part, the Ukrainian president walks the tightrope of not alienating the White House while doing damage in Russia and holding his nation together. His European neighbors should help him where they can and keep explaining to their own voters how this is an efficient way to promote their own security too. There are too many Europeans who still believe that the war isn't really their problem, and that if it ended and/or we would talk to the Kremlin, we could just get on with our lives. There would not be any trouble between us and the Russians. This kind of thinking is implied in retrospective criticism of Western policies in the 1990s: if we had not expanded NATO, we would not be where we are with the Russians now. The only way to make that argument is to ignore Russian aspirations and Russian developments after 1991. There is much to say on this subject of the origins of the new cold war (as there always has been on the start of the original Cold War). In fact, quite a few specialists have done so, with perhaps new revisionists (critics of Western policies, as opposed to those who see Russia as the main problem) gaining traction. As with the original Cold War, for our current East-West conflict it may be most useful to see vast differences in outlook right after the Cold War, on top of chaotic, uncertain, and uncontrollable Russian developments. A key question for today's debate then becomes one that's actually pretty old, namely the extent to which one could have built one's policy on the assumption that Russia at that time (or at any time) could be made to fit within a European order they way other major countries (say, Germany, France) did so. That's not only a question of power, it's also a question (as it has been since Peter the Great) of ideas and principles. During the 1990s the integration of Russia was a highly uncertain proposition at best and thus not one on which to base your policies as a Western leader. In making this point, you can allow for Western self-confidence ("hubris" would be taking it too far). There were also the legitimate needs of Eastern and Central Europan countries to take into account--closer to home, and much further along in transforming their societies into open and democratic ones. With them, the West could try to build something on the basis of shared, fundamental principles much more easily than with a semi-autocratic Russia waging war (Chechnya) against some of its own people. And it has, by and large. There's much more to say on this subject, and more is to come.

October 16, 2025

Thursday. Left a little before five. Nikor. Mild but cooling off as the sun got lower and the light, northwesterly winds made themselves felt more; mostly cloudy, but good light getting through from time to time. Rear flasher employed on the darker section after Maartensdijk, but the daylight was adequate all the way to 6:30.  Blauwkapel to Groenekan and Maartensdijk. Commuters, and kids headed to field hockey practice. Dog people, of course. Embranchementweg and Wieksloterweg and into the woods to the military museum. Up ahead on the runway nice color contrast in the tree line. Very few people in the woods or on the airfield. Bos en Duin quiet also, then on the way to de Bilt and the city more commuters. Lucky bike commuters, and a fair share of commuters stuck in cars. The news with the latest White House twist on Russia and Ukraine, one that only confirms Ukraine, and Europe, should become self-reliant: there has been a good telephone call with the Kremlin, apparently discussing U.S.-Russian trade opportunities after the war ends. There's talk of a new in-person meeting, in Hungary--if anyone didn't get their drift. So much for the idea of sending Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, although that idea has not formally been taken off the table. In the meantime, we can also read how Ukraine is taking an ever bigger toll on Russia's petrochemical sector using its own capabilities. Perhaps eventually the White House can come into the situation again to push through a cease-fire agreement, but only if conditions in the war have changed. In the Middle East it was important for Israel first to have reached some of its objectives against its enemies; Ukraine needs to make similar progress against Russia, to the point where the U.S. and other outsiders might convince the Kremlin that it would be much better off without the war. But the conversation would have to be about Russia; it can only take place after Ukraine (helped by its friends) has taken care of itself, and more (really put the hurt on Russia); and after it has demonstrated it will be able to do so in the future. All this before the point where Russia may get desperate and reach for its bigger guns. In short, the timing of a U.S. diplomatic intervention crucially has to be at a moment of maximum Ukrainian strength and growing Russian frustration, and it would probably require some weighing in by third parties. It would be nice if one of these could be China--behind the scenes, to be sure. But for that to become even thinkable, we'd need to be rid of the trade war or at least tone it down. We're still headed in the opposite direction on that front.

October 14, 2025

Tuesday. Mild but a bit damp, partly cloudy with white to black, blue in between, light winds out of the south. Blauwkapel and two-track trail (storks to the left) to Achttienhoven. From Korssesteeg colored hills up ahead. Airfield to Nieuw Loosdrecht (irritating dog people), then left toward Breukeleveen and Muyenveld. Boomhoek with a brick section now--progress. Tienhoven, Middenweg, Griendweg, Strook, Veenkade, and Bethuneweg. Home by way of Herenweg, Oud Zuilen, and Cycleworks. 

October 12, 2025

Sunday. Left at 8:30. Nikor. Mostly overcast, but some promise of light here and there; gray, white, and yellow-gold in the skies. Mild with light winds out of the north. Straatweg to Maarssen, ARK to Nesciobrug. Light traffic on the waterway, an occasional passer-by on the dike. Discouraging to see the first signs of the city to the northwest even before Loenersloot. North of there, the sun suddenly emerged from behind the cloud cover to the east, casting beautiful low light on the fields and on the poplar trees. In the sun, it warmed up quickly also, but approaching the city it got overcast again and so that did not last. Sunday groups out, also in Waterland. Zunderdorp has been repaved and perhaps humankind isn't completely lost, because they put in bricks, and they put them in well. A motorcycle club found it necessary to travel the Broekergouw, but when they were out of sight, everything else was in order there. Going back, some raindrops on the Popperdammergouw. There, also some water on the road, apparently due to high water levels in the polder. Same after Ransdorp. Waterland looks less besieged by the city when coming down this way, as compared to Uitdam-Durgerdam. Schellingwouderbrug and IJburg, the latter busy, which was not surprising. Same on the way to Muiden. Vecht less busy than you might have expected. Still nothing going on in Nederhorst den Berg on a Sunday afternoon. They are reinforcing the shoreline between Nieuwersluis and Breukelen, which seems like a very good idea. Utrecht people on the last part of the Zandpad, again only logical. In the news more commentary about the peace plan and how only this White House could have brought it about. That underestimates the importance of timing. In the past weeks, Israel had both achieved the weakening of all of its enemies in the region and begun to overreach in a way that threatened U.S. interests. Other factors (Israeli public opinion) played a part. There still had to be a coordinated and forceful diplomatic push, but the time was ripe for an end to the carnage. Let's just hope that's what we have.  

October 9, 2025

 Thursday. Left at 10:30 (Dom bells ringing as I climbed on). Nikor. Sunny, cool-ish, but warming up. Light southwesterly winds. A fine fall day. Leidseweg to de Meernbrug and ARK south. Then Papendorp and Galecop to Nedereindseweg. Papendorp is an office park, but Galecop parallel to the freeway (but behind the sound wall) is pleasant riding. Bike path to Meerlobridge, then Zuid IJsseldijk toward Achthoven and Mastwijk. More fall colors, still some uncut corn, the cattle still outside. At Montfoort right onto the Cattenbroekerdijk, then straight through Woerden to the Oude Rijn. Houtdijkerpad to Hollandse Kade, all remarkably quiet in light of the good weather. Laag Nieuwkoop, nature trail, Haarzuilens. Home by way of Smalle Themaat, lint, Crouweldijk. Paper at Mos in the warm sun. A cease- fire in the Middle East whose time had come. Against its enemies, Israel finally feels it has achieved enough; after the Israeli attack on Qatar, the White House finally had enough. Washington on the face of it was a crucial mover in getting this done, and so far so good. As everyone points out, once we manage to get past the first phase and the release of hostages and prisoners, the hard part will come. Many on both sides will argue that "there is no partner" with which to pursue a lasting peace, and right now all would be correct. Whether partners for peace can emerge in the wake of this war is an open question, but the question isn't wide-open. Better may be to say that it can't be ruled out. We'd need a very different government in Israel, and we'd need some new Palestinian leaders to (be allowed to) step forward. It's not clear which is less likely, but neither seems a realistic option for the foreseeable future. 

October 6, 2025

Monday. Left just before 9:30. Overcast, calm, with a light drizzle most of the time. Not too much to see in the skies, but the leaves have begun to turn, yielding beautiful and often sudden views of just one bush or tree standing out against a mostly green or brownish background. The reverse of early spring, although not quite as hopeful. Blauwkapel to Groenekan and Maartensdijk. New asphalt after Groenekan. Lage Vuursche quiet, Hoge Vuurscheweg dark. Soestdijk to the Eng. The wildflower borders are brown, but in there, the sunflowers still look healthy. Otherwise the Eng empty, green, brown, and black. Eemweg en Hilhorstweg to Amersfoort. Up past the monastery and Vlasakkers to the runway. Hardly anyone there. Bos & Duin to de Bilt and home.  

October 2, 2025

 Thursday. Left at 11. Recovery day. Nikor. Cool, overcast, moderate breezes out of the southwest--Fall. Coffee roasting on the way to 't Zand, then Lint to Smalle Themaat and Haarzuilens. Hollandse Kade beautiful headed north, reeds on both sides and beyond, the fields. Going away from the city into the green, it is still as if the city isn't there (but go too far north, and Amsterdam begins to rear its ugly head). Teckop calm, Kanis to Woerdense Verlaat equally so. Hollandse Kade without the gates even better than it used to be. Then de Meije, quieter than on a Sunday. Bodegraven, south side of the Oude Rijn to Woerden (missing the turn to the Rijndijk). Oude Rijn back to de Meern and beyond. At Mos in the autumn sun with the newspaper. A small EU step on the way to using blocked Russian assets in the West to help Ukraine; an apparent interest in Washington to provide a wider range of intelligence on Russian targets, and maybe the missiles to hit them with. Elsewhere reports on how Ukrainian society and its democracy is creaking, indeed slipping, after three-and-a-half years of war. Histories of this war, whenever they can cover it from the beginning to some meaningful end point, will have to give prominent place to the impact of the West's piecemeal approach to helping Kiev. Eventually, most if not everything that's requested and required is made available. And while all assistance helps, the impact is diminished by the timing. This was especially the case during the first year of the war, but it continues to hamper efforts to force Russia to reconsider its objectives.