July 30, 2026

Thursday. Left by 10:30. Blacksmith. Warm, no longer hot, moderate winds out of the northwest, thin white clouds of various shapes, gradually getting overcast. Biltse Rading. A technician on a ladder working on a small solar panel. His van parked by the side of the bike path--and why not let that diesel engine run while you're doing your job, up there on the ladder? Rapid bike route out of Bilthoven to Den Dolder and the railroad tracks. In Amersfoort, up the Abraham Kuyperlaan, and further up by way of the Emmalaan. Down Utrechtseweg, then left at the bottom, the bike trail toward the train station. Tunnel underneath the tracks and Soesterweg. A detour to the Noorderwierweg: Crocusstraat and Begoniastraat. "Soesterkwartier" in the old, unflattering sense. The land on both sides of the A.P. Hilhorstweg dry. Also a beautiful sunflower border around a patch of corn. The Eng very dry too, then semi-lost on the way to Wieksloterweg. Boerenstreek the escape route. Maartensdijk, Groenekan, Overvecht, and Møs. Still just the AD, but it had an interview with a Russian economist in exile, emphasizing the passivity of the Russian population, and warning that the country's economy is not at the point of collapse. If the president wanted to continue the war for another five years, he could, according to this observer. His advice to the West is to lure Russia's oligarchs and their money away from the Kremlin, the implication probably being that this will deprive the regime of crucial means to keep the war, and the war economy, going. It is, indeed, crucial to get Russian elites to act independently from the Kremlin and in ways that counter the war effort. The likely way for the war to end is without this Russian president having a big say. This economist too sees him as increasingly irrational, suggesting that efforts to get him around the table with his Ukrainian colleague in order to work something out (other than Ukraine's unconditional surrender) are pointless. A combination of Ukraine's war efforts and diplomacy by outsiders directed at Russian elites standing to gain from peace--such a combination could check-mate the Russian president, or make him largely irrelevant in an eventual negotiated end to the war. And indeed, we could be there as early as next week, and we might not get there for another five years.

July 29, 2026

Wednesday. Nederhorst den Berg. Left a little after eleven after a lake swim. Nikor. The lake was very calm, with some green algae lapping against the shore. Further in, the water quickly got clear and there was just one motor boat, which kept its distance. Already warm in the morning, with a near-cloudless sky, and light, later moderate, winds out of the southwest. The smell of new-mowed hay on the Spiegelweg. Vecht to Muiden. People out on racing bikes, few of them going very fast. The bright colors alongside the IJburg cyling highway almost completely gone now. In its place, multiple shades of yellow, brown, and green. Coffee and newspaper at Javaplein. Ukraine now receiving threats from Iran because of an attack on an Iranian ship in the Caspian Sea. It is not clear what Tehran would do if this continues; stopping their support for Russia is probably low on the list, although one would think that the Islamist regime currently has enough problems also to start lobbing missiles at Ukraine. Another article discussing the deteriorating situation in Crimea, due to Ukrainian attacks on supply routes, power plants, military bases. The attacks are designed to relieve Ukraine's southern front, but also, presumably, to compel the Russian president--not to escalate, but to be open to a diplomatic end to the war. There are no signs Moscow is thinking along those lines, but perhaps outside powers, in combination with certain members of Russia's elites, could help things along. The Americans would have to play their part, and perhaps it is a good thing--another story in the same paper--that a notorious American "influencer" with access to and, apparently, influence with the president, has recently changed her views on the Ukraine war 180 degrees and now fully supports Kyiv. Theoretically, the U.S. could still have a more significant and beneficial impact on the war itself by making it easier for Kyiv to obtain both defensive and offensive weapons. It could also make clear to Russian leaders, and those with access to them, that the terms for a more productive and peaceful relationship with the U.S. include an end to the current war and meaningful guarantees for Ukraine's independence. If that were to be Washington's policy, Europe would surely support it and play its part. Nobody knows how close we are to the point where this kind of thinking might even get a hearing in the Kremlin. It does seem clear that Ukraine's current drone offensive can get us closer. On to the Bushuis. The city not swarming with tourists, it seemed, except, as always, at the Bushuissluis. Back in warm conditions through Muiden, Zuidpolderweg, Keverdijk, and Hinderdam. The Keverdijksepolder is still green, as is the Heintjesrak en Broekerpolder, but on the whole, we're drying up fast. Ice cream at the square in town. Dead, with a few people on the edges in the shadows.

July 26, 2026

Sunday. Left a little after ten. Blacksmith. Overcast, with showers on the way. Not warm, not cool. Breezy out of the southwest. Gele brug to Hermelijnvlinderpad. The first few raindrops there. Alendorp to Rivierpad. Walkers, runners, some cyclists. A few yellow flowers in what seems to be a zucchini patch alongside the Rivierpad. Breudijk toward Gerverscop. Knee doing ok, but entire body still in light recovery mode. The corn in the field at the beginning of Gerverscop has disappeared, and another crop (maybe just grass) is on its way. No motorized traffic through Gerverscop, except for the huge tractor-hay trailer combination at the very end, hogging almost the entire road through the turn. Light rain from the Rodendijk all the way home. The pavement eventually just plain wet. It wasn't a lot of water, but it is very welcome nonetheless. At the Vechtbrug in Breukelen, a long line of retiree vacation cyclists making the turn into town, uttering greetings in Spanish. In the short left-right turn on Gunterstein, flattened, wet manure causing a skid, but nothing worse. The quiet at the Strook, Veenkade, Herenweg, and the rest of the way home suggesting that the rain had begun to keep people inside. In the news, word that, for the time being, the American president is holding off on more intensified air strikes on Iranian civilian infrastructure. That's until the next round of threats, possibly some more attacks, followed by yet another shift. And so on, and so forth. Washington's cluelessness and aggression should not lead to any kind of admiration for the fanatical, murderous regime in Tehran and its ability to withstand U.S. attacks. We have to see each regime for what it is and hope that before things really get out of hand, enough influential outside powers that are directly or indirectly affected by this war put pressure on Washington and Tehran to find a way out. They certainly seem incapable of getting there on their own. Unfortunately, before there's any chance of that happening, the Israeli prime-minister will visit Washington this week. The whole military campaign was his idea, and even though it has been a disaster, the man will likely argue for the U.S. and Israel to double down. Using excessive military force is not just his favorite option, it has long been his only option. It is anybody's guess how the American president will respond--and if he responds in one way, he could change his mind again soon after that. Thus, given the people in charge on all sides in this conflict (put there, in the case of Washington and Jerusalem, by voters in a democratic process), it is unlikely that we will see a real change for the better any time soon, maybe not for a couple of years. Meanwhile, the opportunities for an even greater disaster remain plentiful.

July 25, 2026

 Saturday. Left at 9:51. Nikor. Sunny, warm--not hot. Moderate winds out of the south/southwest. Clear skies, just some white brush strokes on the horizon. Koningsweg to Vechten and Achterdijk. There, and alongside the Hollendewagenweg thriving wildflower borders. The rest of the fields and of nature pretty dry. People out, but not too many. Getting out of the saddle still a bit sensitive, but parts in the big ring without issues. Dwarsdijk and Kapellenweg (apples or pears on the trees). Lek fairly peaceful, no barges. The areas between the breakwaters beginning to fall dry. Beatrixsluis, Plofsluis, Jutphaase brug, and Merwedekanaal back into town and Møs. The drought intensifies, but this time there were many barges tied to shore along the Sluispad. Perhaps that by now for many of them more and more waterways, such as the Lek, have become too shallow to navigate profitably. In the paper (AD, but de Volkskrant will return, they said) a report on how the Russian government is forcing companies and universities (well east of Moscow) to supply a certain number of recruits for the military every month. This among other forced recruitment tactics. Not much those poor people can do against the police state, but the police state is being hit where it hurts on a regular basis now. Unfortunately, Brussels has allowed Greece to support Ukraine rhetorically while protecting the bottom line of one of its influential shipping tycoons. To say that country, and several other EU members, have a credibility problem would be an understatement. 

July 22, 2026

Wednesday. Left as the church bells in Nederhorst den Berg struck eleven. Nikor, after a quick swin in the lake. Showers, but brief, and it wasn't cold. So-called bad weather eliminates most people from the beach and the lake itself. Eendracht riders passing on the way out of town. The skies were many shades of gray, and after Muiden there was a brief shower. Breezy out of the northwest, but the knee did ok. Getting out of the saddle sensitive, but possible. Boats in the locks at Spiegelplas and Muiden, but no hold-up. A new bridge leading into Weesp; the old one had been there since at least the 1970s and was nicer to look at. Grasses, weeds, and wildflowers tall on IJburg, though less colorful than a month ago. The new trail between Muiden and Overdiemen is efficient, but it's no fun no longer to be able to look out over the water. Javaplein with the newspaper. An editorial critical of the unwillingness of many EU member states to be as tough and consistent in their sanctions policy toward Russia as they could be. As a group, the EU talks firmly, but the sanctions stick is rather flexible, and quite a few countries look for exceptions for their own companies and interests. If sanctions, Europe's favorite tool, are to be successful, they'll impose hardship, not just on the recipient, but also those imposing them. Given public opinion in many EU countries and the Union's great diversity in membership, the current performance may be the best one possible. At least Brussels has begun to send to Ukraine parts of the 90 billion Euro support package long held up by Hungary. Also in the news how the Ukrainian president has now also fired his top general, the main rival of the former defense minister, sacked last week. The new top general is an ally of the previous defense minister, and the new defense minister seems on board too with his predecessor's emphasis on new technologies over traditional war-fighting under a rigid, top-down command structure. We may, or may not, learn whether the two firings, and their timing, was part of a preconceived plan by the president, or whether the old general's dismissal became inevitable after many people became angry and protested in the past week. (Either one signals good things about the way Ukraine is being led). In any case, if the president also succeeds in bringing the former defense minister back into the government in a major position, the original stand-off between the old general and the young minister may have moved the country forward. Ukraine needs all the help it can get from its friends, but in the end will have to force Russia to give up all by itself. On to the Bushuis through a moderately busy city. Back by way of Zuidpolderweg and Keverdijk. Peak vacation time, and the locals vacationing elsewhere outweigh the strangers being here.  

July 15, 2026

 Wednesday. Left around 10:15. Blacksmith. Small ring again, stuck to the saddle, creeping up the inclines. But it is riding, it is being outside. Warm and sunny, moderate winds out of the east. Busy on the Singel; the garbage trucks stink in this weather. Koningsweg to Wayen and Langeweg. There, a hare on the road who kept running ahead and eventually took off into the field to the right. Grasses and hedges beginning to look dry. We are in a drought. Sluispad to Beatrixsluizen, then Schipperspad. Just a handful of barges at the quays, probably because all skippers have lots of work due to low water levels in the rivers preventing anyone from carrying a full load. On the ARK still a few barges loaded down. Gele brug back into town and Møs, where they seem to have cancelled their Volkskrant subscription. AD instead--still undisturbed by 11:30. Two nuclear-armed powers engaged in warfare. Yesterday, the American president announced tolling charges for passage through a waterway he does not control; today he pulled back and instead announced major air strikes on Iranian infrastructure for next week. By the weekend, those will likely be postponed, and we'll hear about something else. The U.S. presumably is a key player in a diplomatic way out of Russia's war on Ukraine. That country's counteroffensive around Crimea by all accounts is taking a serious toll, certainly on Moscow's ability to supply its southern front in Ukraine, perhaps also on its overall hold on the peninsula. The best Ukraine can hope to achieve by these and other kinds of hits on Russia's ability to wage war is cease-fire talks, followed by a peace process. More likely today, unfortunately, until regime change in Moscow, is Russian escalation from the air, targeting civilian infrastructure. If there were to be regime-change, a cease-fire might be achievable given that the reason to remove the current leader would be his unwillingness to change course in his catastrophic war. For a longer-term outcome giving Ukraine a chance at survival as an independent nation, it would be hard to put any stock in what Washington may or may not be able to contribute--at least until there is regime change there too. Good luck to all of us, first and foremost Ukraine, getting through the next two-and-a-half years. In the time it took to get through the paper, just two cars violated the do-not-enter restriction at the Kievitstraat at Møs.

July 11, 2026

 Saturday. Left a little before ten, cautiously. Blacksmith. Cool for a summer day, but very pleasant. Mostly cloudy, gradually getting more sunny. Light winds out of the northeast. Seated and small ring--no getting out of the saddle. Overvecht and Blauwkapel to Ruygenhoek. Swimmers in the nature pool, just 5.5 km from home. Kooijdijk to Westbroek and toward Tienhoven. Saturday morning in a vacation month. Middenweg to Bethuneweg; Herenweg to Oud Zuilen and Mos. In the paper ongoing speculation about possible desperate moves by the Russian president, particularly against one of the Baltic states. This in addition to stories from Russia about elites questioning the course of the country. And Ukraine, aside from being hit itself daily, keeps hitting targets inside the country. There are no good options for the Kremlin, and who is going to say what or how the president thinks, and on the basis of what information. But all his chips are on this cruel, costly war where Europe is Ukraine's main supporter, and the current administration in Washington a perpetual wild card. That last aspect also means it can't be predicted if the U.S. will be willing to act in case of a Russian provocation in the Baltics. It would be up to the Europeans, and they may fall short, in which case Ukraine's resistance could be undermined also. And it could all happen next week. 

July 7, 2026

 Tuesday. Left around 1:30. Blacksmith. Summer. White clouds, but mostly sunny. Breezy from the northwest. Vecht westside to Op Buuren and Zuilensebrug, Maarssenbroek, and around the Haarrijnse plas. Schoolkids on the way home, but manageable. Around Haarzuilens to natuurpad leading to Laag Nieuwkoop. Wildflowers and colored nettles and weeds still around, but not as exuberant as a couple of weeks ago. Vacation cyclists, but not bad at all on the Hollandse Kade. There, the reeds and bushes moving majestically in the wind. Houtdijkerpad to Kromme Rijn and Harmelen. The special bike route prominently running through town now. De Meern toward the city. Taken down hard by a fat bike in the turn leading to De Meern brug. As if there was no right-of-way. But there is no right-of-way, there's only maintaining sufficient margin-for-error at all times--your error, or someone else's. Banged up, but able to continue home.

July 5, 2026

 Sunday. Left a little after ten. Blacksmith. Not cool, not warm. Overcast with a variety of gray clouds, here and there a small gap for the sun. Along the way, once or twice a few small raindrops. Breezy out of the west. Bilthoven to Den Dolder and the trail alongside the train tracks to Amersfoort. The usual Sunday morning cycling traffic, along with runners and walkers. No outlet from the Bremstraat, although the map suggests there is. Amersfoortse berg to the Belgian Monument, then toward Leusden-Zuid. Left at De Mof, to and through Scherpenzeel (quiet). A young couple pushing a stroller, with the man in a t-shirt and the women in a red dress, wearing short, white, high-heeled boots. There were other people along the way appartently going home from church. Toward and over the hill (light traffic), right at the bottom in Amerongen. Right again in Leersum toward Ginkelduin. Haarweg to Scherpenzeelseweg and back toward Leersum. There a right, then Hoogstraat and Ruiterberg. Gooijerdijk toward Driebergen, then Sterkenburg, Beverweerd, and the tunnel at Werkhoven. Into the wind down the Achterdijk and past Vechten. Into town by way of Kampong and Kromme Rijn. In the news another Ukrainian hit on Russian oil infrastructure at St Petersburg. And openly expressed concerns by Scandinavians: Putin may be getting desperate and choose to double down, also in the Baltic. The options for NATO would not be good: hitting back, if Washington could be persuaded not to stand in the way, brings the risk of further escalation with a nuclear power. Still, a proportional response there would have to be, otherwise Moscow will continue to believe Europe is all talk (at opportune and inopportune times) and no action. Exactly what the response would be, and where, of course would depend on the nature of the Russian escalation. It would also have to be sold to the public in the West, something not to be taken lightly, but not a reason not to do it. As if the situation wasn't grim enough, it's getting grimmer by the week.

July 3, 2026

Friday. The envisioned talk did not happen, but this in a nutshell is what I would have told the student participants in this UN-oriented workshop: 

Talking about a "rules-based order," I would have started with a reference to something Mahatma Gandhi probably never said, when asked (or not) about Western Civilization: "It would be a good idea." We hardly have one today, maybe never really did, and yet as a globalized world, we can't really live without a common way to face up to shared challenges. The problem is political. Under the right circumstances (most of the second half of the twentieth century), the "international community" (if something like that ever really existed) can make good progress in building a rules-based order. However, as the history of the past two centuries shows, the very particular rule first put in writing by Thucydides keeps asserting itself: "the strong do what they have the power to do and the weak accept what they have to accept." The conclusion, especially for the participants in your program, is that one should be very clear-eyed about the temptation for great powers to make their own rules, and, given that, think and work hard with all the others (those states, groups, and individuals for whom a credible international rule book is of crucial importance) on maintaining and augmenting laws, treaties, institutions created since 1945, and to convince great powers (those subject to the temptation of "might makes right") that in the long term, a credible rules-based international order is in their interest too. The globalizing world prior to 1914 did not have a common way to face up to shared challenges, and there came a big, global war; the world of the 1920s and 1930s had an inadequate international rule book, and an even bigger war came; the world of the Cold War, and beyond, did much better, until the beginning of the twenty-first century. We don't have a new world war yet, and nothing is inevitable until it happens. But (a historian's warning): while history does not repeat itself, it does often rhyme.  

July 1, 2026

 Wednesday. Left twenty to ten for De Biltse Hoek. Blacksmith. Mild, light winds out of the southwest. Sunny. Detour from the Berenkuil. Detour around Zeist, past Huis ter Heide, then toward Woudenberg. Groups of school kids with their teachers on end-of-year excursions. Right onto Griftdijk. Rumelaarseweg toward Emminkhuizen. A detour, so left Biesbosserweg into Renswoude. Scherpenzeel next, back onto country roads at the Voskuilerweg. Voskuilerdijk to De Mof, then Den Treek. Toward and eventually up Trekerweg. Toward and around Zeist to Bunsinglaan. Through Bunnik, then Koningsweg back into the city. At work on a talk on the "rules-based order." As Gandhi probably never said when asked, or not, about Western Civilization: it would be a good idea. 

June 28, 2026

Sunday. Left around 9:45. Blacksmith. Still warm, in spite of the overnight storms. Mostly sunny, light winds out of the southwest. Blauwkapel to Groenedijk and Korssesteeg. Corn shooting up now, and the water lilies have opened up. At Egelshoek and elsewhere under the trees, lots of torn-off leaves and little branches, and damp pavement. Kerkelanden to 's-Graveland and Brambergen. Back by way of Emmaweg, 's-Gravelandsevaartweg, and Nieuw Loosdrechtsedijk. Less boater traffic than expected, and in Polder Bethune it was even quieter. Back into town along Zandpad. People perhaps still hiding indoors from the heat. In the news, the Russian president's acknowledgement that the country now faces fuel shortages due to Ukrainian drone strikes. Kyiv's campaign is envisioned to last another month or so, so at the current pace, things could get much more tight. A big question is whether, if that indeed happens, the Kremlin will become desperate and choose escalation, or whether somehow it can be prevailed upon to adjust its story of what this war is about, what Russia has accomplished, and what could furthermore be accomplished at the negotiating table. Apparently, the Russian leader is also looking forward to U.S. negotiators (the terribly swift and effective, entirely disinterested businessmen) returning to Moscow after peace with Iran has been solidified. As a view into the president's mind, that's a potentially encouraging sign; as a concrete path out of the current war, it's so uncertain as to be almost meaningless.

June 26, 2026

Friday. Nederhorst den Berg. Nikor. Left twenty to eleven, after a lake swim. A very warm day, so people, and their dogs, already gathering at the beach. The lake still fairly quiet, although one stinking pleasure boat passed by. Light winds out of the southeast, which made a difference on the way back. The old commute, alongside the Vecht to Muiden. The Spiegelplas lock let just one pleasure boat onto the river; in Muiden, the barriers were up, the bridge passable. In between, and all the way to the city it was unusually quiet out. Javaplein with the paper. A preview of the upcoming NATO summit in Turkey and how there may be opportunities to show some unity, the U.S. included, and thereby maintain some credibility for the alliance. "Some" would be the key term here, because the current administration in Washington has shown time and again it's unserious about these matters, and thus, in the final analysis, unreliable. At the same time, there are things Washington still agrees to do with and in Europe. Deterrence relies not just on weapons, military ability, political resilience, and the like, but also on just enough uncertainty about one's willingness to follow through on warnings about the importance of certain red lines. Perhaps there's still enough uncertainty about what Washington will do in the face of a provocation or worse. Perhaps. Unfortunately, there may not be enough doubt (in Moscow) about European willingness and ability to confront aggression. Fortunately, Ukraine in the meantime is hitting Russia, especially Crimea so hard that on the peninsula a state of emergency has been declared. There will be a Russian response, of course, so calling it good news isn't quite right. But this current Ukrainian operation seems the most promising way to bring about some change in the Russian position.

June 24, 2026

 Wednesday. Left a little before 9:45. Blacksmith. Warm already, without a cloud in the sky, and light winds out of the east. Through the Berenkuil toward De Bilt and Bunnik. Then Odijk to Rijsenburgselaan. Outside of Odijk a pair of storks on a nest, monitored by a birder. From the bike, no chicks visible. Right turn after the church in Driebergen, toward Doorn. Across the Hoogstraat (quiet) then Maarnsegrindweg and Quatre Bras. Up Zeisterweg toward another detour in Zeist, leading to the Utrechtseweg by way of the Dreef. Utrechtseweg had a closure too, so back to the Berenkuil on the south side. Paper at Møs with a report on Germany pulling out of a frigate project at a Dutch shipbuilder (collaborating with German partners). It's the same builder having trouble (major delays, major cost overruns) on a project with the Belgian government. This comes on top of the recent news of the failure of the French-German effort to develop a new, European fighter plane (presumably as an alternative to buying American). And so where the rubber of Europe's aspirations hits the road of genuine and timely results, the continent seems stuck in neutral. It should still get a seat at the table if and when talks to end the war (not on the horizon) begin, but for its own credibility it would be good if, at least at the national level, some muscle could be built. Otherwise, surely the Russian president, but maybe Washington too, will continue to ask: "how many divisions does Costa have?"

June 22, 2026

 Monday. Nederhorst den Berg. Left a little before 11:30 after a lake swim (and an old acquaintance). Breezy out of the northeast; warm, not hot. Sunny, with some light, disorganized white cloud patterns. The lake had been mostly empty, as was the beach; the water clean, but not as clear as it can be. The old doctor's residence and practice is being renovated and, it appears, expanded a little. Spiegelweg and Vecht to Loodijk and the east side of the river. Muiden still quiet, then along the dike where there used to be hardly anything, but not anymore. It's another consequence of the expanding city: the cycling infrastructure needs to keep pace, every time at the expense of a little more green space. IJburg was spectacular, with white, pink, red, green, yellow, and purple wildflowers and weeds on both sides of the asphalt. Coffee and the news at Javaplein. A story on how Ukrainian attacks make it less and less attractive for Russians to vacation in Crimea, but also a grim report on those who remain in the Donbas city of Kramatorsk, in the face of Russian attacks. Elsewhere, a story on the Russian economy, not close to collapse. China is a major partner, and enough funds come in from the sale of oil, gas, and other commodities to keep things going.  The Russian economy has become a war economy, which may make it harder to end the war, since peace would likely force major and difficult changes, where things currently have taken on a kind of normalcy. It could actually be worse, according to some in the Baltics, because instead of reforming itself, the Russian war economy might just go looking for another conflict, for example against NATO in the Baltics. Hard to imagine, perhaps, but it's important to try to think, and think through, the unthinkable in these matters. For the war to end, we still need some kind of major shift in the Russian position. From their strategy it is clear that the Ukrainians understand that, aside from trying to stay one or two steps ahead of the Russians on the battlefield, hitting key sites of Russia's war economy is the best way to undermine the Kremlin's ability, not only to wage the war, but also to run the country. Western sanctions haven't brought about an economic emergency in Russia, and they probably can't. The most likely, though not necessarily promising, way to change Moscow's calculus is for Ukraine to keep hitting Russia's industrial sites (while improving its defenses against Russia's terror attacks). Kyiv's European friends should focus their efforts there, not on premature diplomatic initiatives toward the Kremlin. From Javaplein to the Bushuis, and from there back to IJburg and Muiden. Then toward Hakkelaarsbrug, the Keverdijk, and the old village. There, in spite of ongoing new construction, not too much ever seems to change.

June 20, 2026

Saturday. Left a little before nine. Blacksmith. Warm, but still some moisture in the air from last night's storms. Light, variable winds, later blowing moderately from the west. Lots of small branches with leaves on the ground everywhere. Berenkuil to De Bilt and on toward Soesterberg. Under the trees, the pavement was still damp, sometimes wet. Zeisterspoor to Dodeweg, Heiligenbergerweg, and around Leusden. Engweg a new road, but a bit too rough, with long-neglected brick sections--old-style narrow bricks and even a short section of little square bricks. Then Stoutenburgerlaan to Hoevelaken, Middelaarseweg toward Terschuur, then back across the freeway. Coffee at Brons. Serve yourself in the mudroom. Back through Achterveld, toward Leusden, Kanaalweg, de Mof, and Treek. A lot of walkers, perhaps practicing for the Four Days Marches. In the woods, the roads still damp or wet. Around Zeist and back to De Bilt and home. In the news Ukrainian general-turned-ambassador Valerii Zaluzhiny warning that the war is far from over. It's a stalemate, and Russia still thinks it can outlast Ukraine through a combination of relentless attacks at the Ukrainian front lines (regardless of the cost) and terror attacks using ballistic missiles, against which, Zaluzhiny notes, it is impossible to defend oneself. Russia simply has too many of them. Also in the news, EU Council president Costa defends his recent approach to the Kremlin, and one wonders why he felt the need. In any case, against the background of Zaluzhiny's comments, these soundings look even more premature. Which may have been the ambassador's goal: focus European minds on the unceasingly urgent need to support Ukraine militarily and in other ways. The time for diplomacy isn't here yet; Europeans should curb their counterproductive eagerness to talk to the Kremlin. Right now, there's nothing to discuss.

June 18, 2026

Thursday. Left a little after ten. Blacksmith. Warm already, with some unorganized white clouds in various shapes. Light to moderate winds out of the south. Koningsweg to Marsdijk (a large Mercedes driving as if it was the highway), then Achterdijk with its tightly-controlled grasslands. Werkhoven and Hollendewagenweg, then toward Dwarsdijk. Just before it, an approaching farm vehicle so big it had no place to go but all of the available asphalt. Other than these two interactions it was a fairly quiet weekday morning. Kapelleweg to 't Goybrug and the Lekdijk. The river peaceful, as were the farms. Just a handful of users at the park near Tull en 't Waal. Tailwind on the Sluispad to Plofsluis, then toward Jutphaas en the Jutphasebrug. The paper at Møs with mixed news about the war. On the one hand, Ukrainian forces have virtually been pushed out of the town of Kostyantynivka (some 70,000 people before the war, virtually nobody left), on the other, a long article explaining how Ukraine's evolving drone capabilities wreak havoc on the access roads to Crimea, and how the same capabilities are hitting Russian units and storage sites well behind the front lines. The same paper also reported on the G-7 pledge of unwavering support for Ukraine's freedom, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. That group includes the American president, so who knows. At any rate, it would be hard today to argue that Ukraine holds no cards. In that light, the news that the EU Council president has confidentially reached out to Moscow to open a channel of communication is strange, to say the least. For the war to end in an even remotely just way, it would have to be Russia reaching out to Brussels, because that would signal distress and perhaps a willingness to give up some of the war aims. For Brussels to reach out to Moscow now seems, except premature, to be a sign of EU anxiety about perhaps being left out of any talks once and if they begin. But it's exactly the wrong signal to send the Kremlin. As today's spectacular drone strikes near Moscow suggest, we may be approaching the point where Russia isn't just not winning, but is actually the losing side, and this for all to see. We need to get a little closer to that point; we need to get to the point where it is clear that Moscow is looking for a way out of its war of aggression. Keep up the pressure, and let them come to us.

June 14, 2026

Sunday. Left a little after nine. Blacksmith. Cool, overcast, moderate winds out of the northwest. Long sleeve jersey not an exaggeration. Berenkuil to De Bilt, around Zeist toward Woudenberg. Fairly quiet everywhere. Evidence of a recent shower before Woudenberg. Griftdijk and beyond was dry again. Past the donkeys to the Haarweg, then across the partially closed freeway. Amerongse berg fairly quiet also. Right at Leersum toward Ginkelduin. A large pack of motorcyles, not the only one today. Hoogstraat to Ruiterberg. People, but not too many, maybe late sleepers due to late-night soccer. Back up the hill toward the Pyramid, then down toward Zeist, and around it to De Bilt and the city. Last bit a headwind, but nothing dramatic. Yesterday's papers at Møs. The American general who is NATO's SACEUR has read the intelligence and does not believe Russia is seeking conflict with Europe. Nordic countries see it differently. Perhaps recent intelligence shows no preparations for an attack, the evidence and experience from the past years--including the Russian president's repeated statements--demonstrate that Moscow considers itself in conflict with Europe already. How could it not? Just the other day, the British navy intercepted a oil tanker from Russia's shadow fleet; the French did so just a couple of weeks ago. In addition, the EU is proceeding with the start of membership talks for Ukraine and Moldova. These countries turning toward Europe was Russia's prime reason to attack in 2014. There is no sign, quite the opposite, that the Russian president has abandoned his maximalist objectives in the war, including pushing back NATO from where it is now. Obviously, his armies are in no position to mount any kind of sustained offensive against a NATO country. Nordic officials believe this could change if and when the war in Ukraine comes to an end. Whether, as they say, Russia will then have a large, well-trained military capable of taking on NATO is a big question, given how poorly Russia's military is performing against Ukraine and given how hard it is for Moscow to find recruits able and willing to fight. All of which doesn't mean that Europe should not consider itself in conflict with Russia and that it should not prepare for all kinds of Russian actions designed to divide it. Perhaps the Americans will still help if something goes wrong, but it would be much better if that were a bonus, instead of critical. More important in such a case would be to have integrated Ukraine far enough so as to be able to use its hard-earned experience, and its military capabilities, to beat back any Russian initiative. If integration proceeds quickly enough, and assuming the war ends in a way that allows for genuine Ukrainian independence and security, perhaps that Europe's deterrence will be enhanced to such an extent that, indeed, there will be no Russian fantasizing over an offensive.

June 11, 2026

Thursday. Left a little before ten. Blacksmith. On the cool side, partly cloudy. White cumulus clouds, a bit of gray here and there. One raindrop, riding on the Nedereindseweg. Jaarbeurs and Merwedekanaal to Jutphaas and Nedereindseweg. Meerlobrug to IJsseldijk. The flowers in the lillypads are about to open up, newly planted corn still has a long way to go. Around IJsselstein and through Benschop. Just a quiet weekday morning. Right at Polsbroekerdam toward Oudewater. Green polders stretching far to the left and right. A bridge stand-off in Oudewater involving several cars. Snelrewaard to Montfoort. At Mastwijk another stand-off, this time between two trucks. It doesn't take much for trucks, even cars, to run into trouble in these small towns, and that is as it should be. Any stretch without traffic furniture brings out the race car driver in people. New pink asphalt between Harmelen and De Meern. De Meernbrug to Møs and the paper. Lots of commentary on the World Cup, most of it negative. That the U.S. government would ban, among others, Somali referee Omar Artan has long ceased to be a surprise, and neither was the complete silence from FIFA. The ban and the silence are still outrageous, but outrageous has become routine. Still depressing, as some letter writers and commentators pointed out too, is that no individual referee, coach, or player has taken a stand. Doing so would likely have come at a personal cost, but it's not as if that's not the case now. If something like this happens--and certainly if it happens to, so to speak, one of your own--and you do nothing, you're implicated in the outrage. Let enough chances to take a stand go by, especially when the outrage occurs close to home, and you will live in a world where bullies and gangsters run wild.

June 8, 2026

 Monday. Left around 9:30. Blacksmith. Overcast, mild, light to moderate winds out of the south. Groenekan to Groenedijk. In the water, a couple of swans with eight chicks, some white, some gray. Korssesteeg with lots of campers, now also behind one of the farms--those with the AI-generated protest signs--that soon may have to close. How it may be in a few years: new areas of managed nature preserve, perhaps also recreation and camping. And maybe that a different type of farm may still be there too. Egelshoek to Tienhoven. The oasis of the Tienhovensch kanaal. Birdsong, grasses, weeds, and lots of color. Just a few people. Tienhoven to Nedereindseweg. Before Molenhoek nettles with purple flowers. Then the trail around the lake to the Gageldijk (a brown cow with a young calf). Klopdijk and the detour around Zuylenstede back into town and Møs. In the paper, an analysis underlining the persisting urgency for Europe to assist Ukraine, specifically in the area of anti-ballistic missile defense. It's not just that the Russian president is down to the kind of terror attacks we've seen frequently in recent months, it's also that Russia is increasing its production of cruise and ballistic missiles, making the terror option even more lethal for Ukrainians than it has been so far. Ukraine is getting better at hitting those production facilities, but in the area of defense, it can use all the help it can get, for example the French-Italian SMAP/T system, European help for the development of its own missile-defense system, and also still advocacy in Washington for the sale of Patriot systems to Europe on Kiyv's behalf. Success on the latter is a long shot, given the hole the American president has dug for himself in the Middle East. Let's hope that the other things were at the top of the agenda of discussions between the leaders Britain, Germany, France, and Ukraine this past weekend. As the analysis also emphasized, it's not just for Ukraine's sake that one would redouble these efforts, it's very much in the interest of the rest of Europe. More than ever, Ukraine's and Europe's security interests are intertwined.