Figuring Out Afghanistan

The president has stated that there's little point in deepening the U.S. commitment to Afghanistan while it remains unclear whether there will be a credible local partner. At the risk of defending once more a president many people would like to see bomb something other than the moon, that is a significant step. There will now be a second round to the Afghan presidential election, on November 7, although rumors that there may be a power-sharing deal between president Karzai and challenger Abdullah also persist. We'll have to see how this goes, but at least the fatally flawed first election round will not directly lead to a new Karzai term. It is still questionable if the West should even try to address the Afghan political situation through a central government, and last week there was a forceful, though not entirely persuasive, case that the presence of Western troops (regardless of what they do, or do not do) fuels Taliban terrorism. But once again I like Roger Cohen's take, today, who argues that even though the West has been in the country for eight years, a comprehensive approach to the Taliban-Al Qaeda challenge has only just begun, and that what's needed most now (not next month) is a clear statement from the president of U.S. "endurance" there. Early last spring, the new administration did announce a new regional strategy which it called "AfPak," because one can't really separate the predicaments of Afghanistan and Pakistan. It would certainly not help matters in Pakistan if the Taliban, following a U.S. withdrawal, took control of Afghanistan, again, and it would not help Western interests either. It would be weird if, after having put his own man, General McChrystal, in charge earlier this year, the president would now turn down his recommendation for a better counterinsurgency strategy. In a way, NATO allies like the Netherlands (in spite of the government's efforts to stave this off) have done just that: they're out of there, regardless of what Washington decides, regardless of what they're leaving behind, regardless of what will happen to the people who have come to depend on NATO protection. But I think the president is smarter and tougher than that. I think he'll give General McChrystal most of the things he needs. I just hope that together, the president and the general be utterly pragmatic. If a central government, if national institutions can be made to work effectively and with credibility--then, fine. But otherwise, we should help local people protect themselves, reconcile with outsiders where possible, and run their own lives.