December 20, 2025

 Saturday. Left around ten. Nikor. Foggy and chilly, light winds from the south. Visibility very poor, though usually sufficient on the roads and bike paths. West side of the Vecht, all the way to the end of the Daalseweg and de Verlengde Molenweg. Bicycle bridge to Oostwaard and Zuylensebrug. Maarssenbroek toward Vleuten and around the Haarrijnse plas. Nothing much to see; glasses also partly fogged up. Nature path to Laag Nieuwkoop. Pretty peaceful everywhere; some cyclists, more runners, a few birdwatchers. Gerverscop quiet. Harmelen busy with Saturday morning, then Zandweg back to the city and Cycleworks. Negotiations led by the U.S. continue, but the other day we also got to witness the Russian president's annual press event. No indication that he's ready to give any ground in the talks--quite the contrary. Meanwhile the Ukrainians have scored some good hits, for example the Russian submarine and a ship in Russia's black fleet. These reports amid other news, of how the Russian economy is under strain, how ordinary Russians feel the downsides of this war more and more. And the European choice for an EU loan to keep Ukraine going for the next year or so. As so often in the history of European integration, forward motion only comes when all other options, including inaction, have proved infeasible. In this case that included, at least for now, the use of Russian funds parked in Europe. That option always had a lot of drawbacks, in spite of the significant amount of money sitting in these accounts. People call it a defeat for the German chancellor, and in terms of rhetoric at least he, and the Dutch government, did have to abandon a long-standing priority. Eventually this may look more as yet another step through which EU members genuinely pool their resources in areas where it matters. However, if it was a victory for European integration, unfortunately it was one marred by the non-participation of Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia. It is also a result that will provide ammunition to anti-EU populist nationalists in member states. Geert Wilders this week posted a selfie with the Czech and Slovak prime ministers--brothers-in-arms. The sooner Putin's solid grip on the situation will prove hollow, the better. When that time comes, we'll have to hope that he--or preferably someone who takes his place in the Kremlin--will decide to negotiate seriously instead of doubling down by reaching for even cruder, and crueler, military options than he has thusfar. Ukraine's financial future became a little less dark this week, and the Americans are still very engaged in seeking an end to the war. But what remains prominently on the table is the question of "how does Russia lose?" Lose it must, as in accepting Ukraine as an independent state and part of Europe; as in realizing that NATO is not going away; as in coming to grips with a non-imperial future for itself. It is true that a "total" Russian defeat will mortgage future Russian relations with especially the West, but somehow the country and its people will have to come to the conclusion that the imperial power trip Putin has led them on is worse than a dead-end. Failure in Ukraine is an absolute pre-condition.