January 24, 2026

Saturday. Left by 10. Nikor. Cold but sunny, just some thin, white could cover to the northeast. Light winds out of the east. West side of the Vecht all the way to development at the end of the Daalseweg. Places sheltered from sun and wind still a little damp, and there, it also looked potentially icy in a few places. Zuilensebrug, back across at Maarssen, ARK to Woerdensweg. Back across the canal at Breukelen, then Angstelkade. The land at rest everywhere. Loenersloot bridge to Loenen, then Vecht. Scheendijk torn up, so Gunterstein to the open part. Not busy anywhere, but people out everywhere, on bikes, walking, running. Veenkade, Herenweg, and Oud Zuilen back to town. The Greenland crisis has been diffused, but the American president makes sure the NATO crisis continues, most recently through his ignorant and insulting remarks about the allied contributions in Afghanistan. Last night on the BBC there was someone from his world shameless enough to defend it, but on this side of the Atlantic there can't be any serious people left who will put any stock into an administration under such leadership, or, for that matter, a country that elects a person such as this one not once, but twice. However, the conclusion that "Europe" needs to take care of itself has been obvious for a year now; what matters--and what should be the focus of everyone's attention--is what "Europe" is able to accomplish concretely here. The list of priorities is long, but none is more urgent than providing Ukraine the wherewithal to survive and to force Russia to stop the war. Not too much in the news about that, recently.

January 21, 2026

Wednesday. Left 9:10 in a light rain. Nikor. The rain stopped within minutes, and toward the east some light already visible near the horizon. Chilly, but in the course of the day it got a good deal milder. De Bilt, Bilthoven, den Dolder, and the train tracks to Amersfoort. Along the trail still some left-over bits of snow. As always happens, on the Vlasakkerweg it is the 1960s. Bisschopsweg to Randebroekerweg and Hogeweg. The last time must have been in the 1980s. The second part is now pleasantly deserted; the bike lane is on the road--what used to be the narrow bike path now serves as side walk. Amersfoortseweg to Nijkerk, which starts a lot earlier than back then. Downtown, stores and restaurants, lots of them. We left going east, Oude Barneveldseweg, past the soccerfields to the Bloemendaalseweg. The Deuverdenseweg to Driedorp. Slichtenhorsterweg to Blokhuizersteeg. Different kinds of farms, the kind you see in the middle of the country, which is what this is. Roundabout way to Terschuur (Hoevelaken, Zwartebroek), the way the bus used to go in 1982. Then Achterveld and the Hessenweg to Stoutenburg. Zwarteweg and Hamersveldseweg to de Mof. It felt a bit like the edge of Leusden, and way back when it probably was, but today it's essentially straight through town. The sun was coming out, the wind mostly at the back. Den Treek, and up the Treekerweg. Pavement clean. Then toward Huis ter Heide, de Bilt, and home. Our interesting times continue; things fall apart visibly on a daily basis. Usually those developments end badly. I fear that the people of Ukraine will suffer even more, for starters. And the Americans are next, even though many don't seem to realize it fully. However, as the resistance to the regime becomes more widespread, the regime may well double down. We will find out how ruthless they can be. Perhaps they will accept there are limits beyond which even they can't go, perhaps not. The behavior of the leader suggests there will be escalation. 

January 19, 2026

Monday. Left around 12:15. Still cold, also damp. Light winds out of the southeast. A weak sun early on, but it got covered mostly by gray-white clouds--nothing solid, but no real rays making it onto the fields. Pavement not dried out, and in some places plain damp. In the city, fresh salt had been put down. Leidseweg to de Meern brug and Zandweg. Some daffodils. More daffodils in Harmelen. Into the wind toward Achthoven. Meerlobrug to Nedereindseweg. In the very small canals there was still some left-over ice. Jutphaas to Plofsluis to Heemskerk. Looking east from there, a preposterous digital billboard alongside the freeway, as if the business park itself wasn't bad enough. Wayen and Mereveldseweg back to the city. The Greenland story gets more farcical by the day, except that it's deadly serious. It is clear now that the president does not feel inhibited by anything. Still, we are all impatiently waiting for enough Republican senators to test this proposition, and soon.  

January 17, 2026

Saturday. Left at 9:45. Nikor. Sunny, with some receding clouds around, light southeasterly breezes, cool but turning milder quickly. Pavement damp to wet, but the shift toward cooler, dryer weather definitely underway. Singel to Koningsweg, Vechten and Achterdijk. The land empty, save for some sheep here and there. Werkhoven to Dwarsdijk, then Kapelleweg. Farms at rest everywhere. Lek and Lekdijk very quiet, hardly any motorized traffic. The shifting views of the railroad bridge at Houten. The sun on Vreeswijk in the distance. Beatrixsluis, Plofsluis, Jutphase brug, and Merwedekanaal back to the city. A new threat from the White House: those (allies) who don't support his acquisition of Greenland can look forward to new tariffs. The U.S. allies depend on Washington for all kinds of things, so it is not feasible simply to say that where the administration does what it feels it needs to do, the same goes for allies. It would deny the central rationale for having an alliance, and, again, is probably not feasible for all kinds of reasons. Still, the clarity of it all looks attractive. We choose our friends and allies ourselves, and we'd rather have nothing to do with you. We don't expect anything from you either (this is where the infeasibility comes in, just think of LNG purchases)--instead, let's just keep our distance. Attractive, but even if countries on this side of the Atlantic somehow managed to adjust and survive, the regime would not leave them be, since domination is the name of its game. And so the leader is correct when he points out that the allies are powerless against him. On their own, they are, for sure, but it still appears that, at least on the Greenland issue, there are some partners to be found on Capitol Hill. More broadly, most Americans are far from enthusiastic, and their disapproval extends to many domestic questions. The big question in the coming months will be how the regime will respond in the face of what is likely to be growing adversity at home and abroad. The leader's impulse is always to attack, but part of his strategy for survival has also been the expedient u-turn. 

PS: Just hours later, the news that Washington has slapped 10% tariffs on imports from the NATO member states that are sending military personnel to Greenland in preparation for an alliance mission there. Intended, naively in retrospect, to reassure the White House that NATO is capable of defending alliance security interests in the region, the administration took it as a provocation. As a sign of the extent to which Europe remains one or two steps behind, the same Dutch foreign minister who, just one week ago, actually took up a question put to him as to whether he'd support a U.S. acquisition of Greenland (instead of insisting that the question is not on the table--supporting Denmark and Greenland in their rejection is-- he said, if Denmark and Greenland agree, it would be fine with him), that same person now publicly uses the word "blackmail" to characterize the president's new tariffis. Whether the tariffs actually get implemented, we'll have to see (there's still the Supreme Court case, and there's still the Senate), but at the very least this foreign minister should be disqualified from continuing in his post due to plain incompetence.

January 15, 2026

 Thursday. Left a little before 9:45. Nikor. Light rain and rush hour traffic on the way out of town. Light southwesterly winds, the sky a gray dome over everything. Mild. Rain ceasing and momentarily replaced by the coffee roasting on the way up the Gele Brug. Traffic thinning out in Leidse Rijn. Alendorp, then Vleuterweide. Alongside the Stroomrugbaan little yellow daffodils, and it wasn't their first day above ground. Rivierpad to Breudijk. Gerverscop very quiet; De Haar towers visible, but otherwise mostly gray horizons nearby. Rodendijk, Schutterskade, Galgerwaard, and across the ARK. On the way down some doubts about the rear tubular, so straatweg back, although by way also of Woerdenseweg. Oud Zuilen to Mos. In the paper reports on the D.C. meetings between the Danes and Greenlanders on one side, and the chief multi-tasker and the vice-president on the other. The latter two are supposed to collaborate in the pursuit of the commander-in-chief's wishes, but they are also rivals for the succession, still assuming this will need to happen by 2028. Perhaps the fact that most of the news about the meeting came from Danish and Greenlandic participants, and that there has been very little commentary from the U.S. side, suggests that in Washington nobody, perhaps including the boss himself, has any clear idea of how to follow up on the bold claims. It could even be that rival camps are fighting each other over this issue. That would potentially be helpful for European efforts to preserve the basic status quo. 

January 12, 2026

Monday. Left at 2. Nikor. Damp and overcast, but well above freezing. Foul air everywhere, in spite of light southerly breezes. Snow and ice melting, but not gone by any means. Berenkuil to de Bilt. Some residential streets and many trails still full of melting frozen stuff, for example in Bosch en Duin. Mesdaglaan, Duinweg, back at the straatweg, then left toward Den Dolder. The main bike paths all wet, but rideable. Embranchementsweg to Maartensdijk. Around Westbroek the fields were almost entirely green already. There, not too much traffic, but on the whole just about every passing car stank. Gageldijk to Blauwkapel and home. Greenland continues to be in the headlines; it's prime real estate and we have to have it. It's impossible to predict how it's going to play out, but the history of transatlantic relations suggests something can be worked out that will allow everyone involved to feel satisfied. As a piece in the Frankfurter argued this weekend, there are some factors constraining the White House, in spite of everything: certain Republican senators, and a long-established American interest in being part of a stable and secure Europe. Simply occupying Greenland against the wishes of the local population, but certainly the European allies, would run into roadblocks on Capitol Hill, and it would run counter to the goals even this administration pursues in the world. In spite of their dependence on Washington in their support of Ukraine, occupation and annexation of Greenland most likely would cause Europeans (if they haven't already) to give up on the U.S. It would in all likelihood lead to the unraveling of NATO; Europeans would take another step in together organizing their own defense where until now, this has been a procession of Echternach. Not that they would have an easy time of it, but there would be no alternative. Ukraine would have to rely on its own resources even more that it does already. Russia would see all kinds of opportunities further to undermine European collaboration, and it would surely push even harder to submit Ukraine. It does not have to happen this way. Western geo-strategical interests in the polar region can be accomplished in ways that don't jeopardize all kinds of other U.S. interests, while the exploration of the island's raw materials won't happen overnight anyway and would probably be harmed by an annexation running rough-shod over allied and local opposition. This would be a rational look, as opposed to a wag-the-dog or a might-makes-right scenario. It is a measure of how far we have declined that the latter can't just be ruled out. 

January 5, 2026

Monday. Left around 1:15. Focus. Snow, the top layer newly fallen. The two tunnels to Veemarkt, Hooge Kampse Plas, and Beukenburg. Some people out, but mostly quiet on the roads and trails. Snow on the fields, snow on the tree branches. Turning off Beukenburg the front wheel got away and the rear brake came loose as it hit the ground, but no harm done. Prinsenlaan to Maartensdijk, to a deserted, magical Eikensteeg. Around Lage Vuursche and further north via the Kloosterlaan. An occasional mountainbiker. Wasmeer and back toward Hollandsche Rading. Bike paths into the wind and with the low sun to Groenekan. Another slide-out at Blauwkapel, then home. The implementation of the latest corollary to the Monroe Doctrine all over the news. Do as I say, or else--but the "else" may turn out to be complicated, and of course deadly for ordinary Venezuelans and possibly U.S. military personnel. Shocking how there are still national security professionals, as in an op-ed in the Times yesterday, contorting a justification for it all. Or maybe they're just part of the wider team. Why try to learn from previous experience if none of the consequences of these actions ever affect you personally? Might makes right--just make sure you're with might, and the people paying the price might as well not exist. Today, from the White House, additional noises about how "force" ought to guide policy. Hubristic and short-sighted, although still ruthless, and possibly increasingly so as resistance grows. How ruthless exactly, at home or abroad, we'll find out this year. Regardless, all power politics, all self-interest and no trust, no shared principles or institutions, it eventually leads to a world of all against all. Nobody wins in that scenario. This should be the lesson of 1914-1945, but, again, if the really bad stuff has always happened to others, you can come to believe that such lessons don't apply to you. Against the background of last year's experience with China's rare-earths boycott and the new National Security Strategy, the noises about Greenland are perfectly understandable. (Justified is a different matter). They are also much more than simple noises, because the current dependence on China for these vital resources really must keep the administration up at night. If your entire being consists of doing whatever the hell you want, and bragging about it, such vulnerability, such dependence, must be your worst nightmare. Opposition from hand-wringing, hapless Europeans is not going to stand in the way of addressing this vital geo-strategic issue, it is not going to stop the administration from taking the resources it considers essential for its global pre-eminence. And so, the dismantling proceeds, and the world becomes an ever uglier place.