January 12, 2026

Monday. Left at 2. Nikor. Damp and overcast, but well above freezing. Foul air everywhere, in spite of light southerly breezes. Snow and ice melting, but not gone by any means. Berenkuil to de Bilt. Some residential streets and many trails still full of melting frozen stuff, for example in Bosch en Duin. Mesdaglaan, Duinweg, back at the straatweg, then left toward Den Dolder. The main bike paths all wet, but rideable. Embranchementsweg to Maartensdijk. Around Westbroek the fields were almost entirely green already. There, not too much traffic, but on the whole just about every passing car stank. Gageldijk to Blauwkapel and home. Greenland continues to be in the headlines; it's prime real estate and we have to have it. It's impossible to predict how it's going to play out, but the history of transatlantic relations suggests something can be worked out that will allow everyone involved to feel satisfied. As a piece in the Frankfurter argued this weekend, there are some factors constraining the White House, in spite of everything: certain Republican senators, and a long-established American interest in being part of a stable and secure Europe. Simply occupying Greenland against the wishes of the local population, but certainly the European allies, would run into roadblocks on Capitol Hill, and it would run counter to the goals even this administration pursues in the world. In spite of their dependence on Washington in their support of Ukraine, occupation and annexation of Greenland most likely would cause Europeans (if they haven't already) to give up on the U.S. It would in all likelihood lead to the unraveling of NATO; Europeans would take another step in together organizing their own defense where until now, this has been a procession of Echternach. Not that they would have an easy time of it, but there would be no alternative. Ukraine would have to rely on its own resources even more that it does already. Russia would see all kinds of opportunities further to undermine European collaboration, and it would surely push even harder to submit Ukraine. It does not have to happen this way. Western geo-strategical interests in the polar region can be accomplished in ways that don't jeopardize all kinds of other U.S. interests, while the exploration of the island's raw materials won't happen overnight anyway and would probably be harmed by an annexation running rough-shod over allied and local opposition. This would be a rational look, as opposed to a wag-the-dog or a might-makes-right scenario. It is a measure of how far we have declined that the latter can't just be ruled out.