April 1, 2026

Wednesday. Left around 9:15. Nikor. Cool, clouds in all kinds of shapes at various altitudes. Some blue and some sun. Light winds out of the south. Straatweg to Maarssen, then ARK. Almost the whole way up to Amsterdam light raindrops, never enough to wet the pavement or anything else. But they were there, as were, at the same time, shadows. Quiet on the levee, crews on the boats busy with hoses and other tools. Spires of Nederhorst den Berg to the right after Loenersloot.A barge coming through at Driemond. Company until the Uylanderbrug. Coffee at the Javaplein. In the paper the good news that Ukraine is hitting Russia's oil port and refinery on the Gulf of Finland hard, interrupting exports. Unnamed allies have asked Kiyv not to do this now, since less Russian oil reaching world markets means even higher prices. Tough. Ukraine is fighting for survival, and there are indications that life in Russia is getting ever harder because of the war. The more disruption the better, and whatever disruption our part of the world has to deal with as a by-product pales in comparison to what Ukrainians have had to deal with the past couple of years. On to the Bushuis. The city is getting awfully busy already. Return trip in milder weather, at least toward the end, when the sun came out more. Magere Brug, Omval (nothing left), Weesperzijde, Duivendrecht, and Abcouderpad. School kids and others on fat bikes. Past Abcoude to the Indijkweg along the tracks. Baambrugge and the magnificent bend. Loenersloot to Loenen. Lambs everywhere, but no baby waterfowl. Rapeseed abundant  now. Vecht with its reinforced shoreline, all the way into the city, headwind the whole way.

March 29, 2026

Sunday. Left a little after eleven (daylight savings time). Nikor. Just a little bit of damp pavement left from yesterday's showers. On the chilly side with partial sun. Decent clouds, but mid-day light. Moderate winds out of the west. De Bilt and Den Dolder, and the railroad trail to Amersfoort. Lots of people using the newly widened trail out of Amersfoort. Belgian way up the hill, then down Vondellaan and up again by way of Balilaan, Arubalaan, and Genestetlaan. Late in the morning, but the city still very quiet. The cooler weather seems to have slowed down the emergence of blossoms and buds, although tulips are now a common sight. Down Laan 1914 and on toward Leusden Zuid and de Treek. Headwinds made it cool. Up Treekerweg, also with Sunday walkers. Down the Traaij to Arnhemse Bovenweg, roundabout to Driebergseweg, and eventually left onto the Bunsinglaan toward Bunnik. From Bunnik back to the city by way of Amelisweerd. In the news, more reports on how, after four weeks of war already, the White House and Pentagon have now given themselves the option of ground operations in Iran. And what an option it is. One wonders what will be next if, after employing troops somewhere, the Islamist regime still doesn't collapse or the Straits of Hormuz remain too dangerous for most shipping. Looking at who is in charge in Washington, it can't be good for anyone, except that it may give extra impetus for U.S. allies in Europe and Asia to make themselves less dependent on Washington and on fossil fuels. Whether that's good for those European and Asian countries remains to be seen, but the fact that its allies around the world are giving up on the U.S. where they can afford to surely isn't good for America.

March 27, 2026

Friday. Left around ten. Blacksmith. Overcast, but not solid, interesting-looking layers of gray with space for the sun occasionally. Fairly chilly winds out of the south. Koningsweg to Wayen. Langeweg around Heemskerk and the golf course, then Plofsluis. Some golfers, some riders. ARK on the bricks. Schalkwijk spire up ahead. Bricks are good, bad bricks yield even less traffic. Nobody until the turn-off onto the Elpad. Colors on the Kaaidijk toward Schalkwijk, then right toward the Achterdijk. More colors, some traffic. Groeneweg to Lekdijk. The dike quiet, the river even more so. Lots of lambs at a farm past the fort. Strijpweg, Waalweg, Beatrixsluis, and Vreeswijk. Tailwind alongside the canals, all the way to the Gele Brug. Into the city to Mos. In the news the latest ultimatum before Iran's energy infrastructure will get hit. Another delay, which could mean that bombing, or some kind of invasion, could happen any day now. Lacking interest in expert knowledge on the country and the regime, and with partners urging you to do their bidding, how could we not get an outcome soon heralding a more benign future for the region and the world? 

March 26, 2026

 Thursday. Left ten minutes to ten. Nikor. On the cold side, with sun and showers. Moderate winds out of the northwest. Blauwkapel, and by the side of the road a goose with five chicks. Ruygenhoek, and past the swimming area the stark line of small trees on the driveway to the farm on the right. There and all the way to Egelshoek the interaction of the white and gray clouds, the blue, and the light. In Westbroek, people still feel victimized. On the extension of the Korssesteeg a dark gray cloud over Nieuw Loosdrecht with a lighter, dome-shaped area right over the church. Rain and hail after Egelshoek. Maartensdijk wet asphalt, but the sun coming back. Turning onto the Lindenlaan, the bricks have been leveled out. Groenekan to de Bilt. The colors and the light on the Kerklaan glorious. Berenkuil into the city and Mos. In the paper a discussion of the NATO secretary general's juggling of European misgivings and U.S. expectations of support, and a report on how in Spain the German Chancellor has been criticized for not criticizing the U.S. president's criticism of Spain's criticism of the war. All that needs to, and can, be managed. One has to hope that the same can be said of those other bits of news, regarding Ukraine: increasing U.S. pressure on Kyiv to cede territory to Russia, and a potential dearth of supplies for Ukraine because of the war on Iran. Ukraine, and Europe, is mostly on its own. The good news is that Russia's new spring offensive seems to have stalled the moment it was launched.

March 23, 2026

Monday. Left 9:45. Blacksmith. On the chilly side, somewhat hazy, but sun. Light winds out of the northeast. Through the city to the Merwedekanaal. The world busy with the working week. Schipperspad to Vreeswijk and Lekdijk. Beyond Klein Scheveningen everything peaceful. Birdsong. Lopik to Polsbroekerdam and Oudewater. Lambs along Snelrewaard, and maybe a baby goat. Early spring coming into its own, with blossoms, forsythia, and more and more light green everywhere. Weeping willows especially beautiful now. Montfoort, Harmelen, and de Meern back into the city, to Mos. In the paper election news: populists failing to break through in large French cities, and in Slovenia, but gaining significantly in Germany. Interesting report on an emigration fair over here: all kinds of people (a growing number coming from two native-born Dutch parents) not liking it here any more, for example because the government keeps sending our money to wars that don't concern us. Imagine that: you can't or won't stay in your own country anymore, and another country lets you in, also if you're just looking for a better life. If your favorite populist turns out to be a snake oil salesman, the lucky people in this part of the world still have the option of going elsewhere. 

March 21, 2026

Saturday. We left Swift/Leiden by 9:30. Blacksmith. Chilly and damp. Some lingering fog, light winds out of the northeast. After a bit alongside the Vliet, the route led south to Stompwijk, Benthuizen, and the Benthout park. Then zig-zag to Boskoop and its growers. When it was still gray, the blossoms and light green, not to mention the forsythia, stood out very well. Past Alphen toward Papenveer and the break. Joop. Then Nieuwkoop, Noorden, and the Achterweg to Vrouwenakker, now with the sun warming things up. Tailwind alongside the Amstel-Drechtkanaal and on, back to Papenveer. Woubrugge and the north side of Alphen--narrow and crowded, all the way to Hazerswoude-Rijndijk. Back to Leiden just south of the freeway in full spring weather. In the Gulf, the enemy keeps fighting back, as so many scenarios the past decades have predicted. The commander-in-chief is flailing wildly, now that his recklessness and the incompetence of his team are on broad display. Israel keeps getting hit too, three weeks into this. The air campaign is inconclusive, a ground operation spells quagmire. It'a quagmire regardless, and it seems a good deal worse for just about everyone than the containment of the previous decades. Not that the boss will ever own any of the bad news. He could still double down again. Thus, the best outcome seems to be a declaration of victory that leaves the Islamist regime in place, although now probably fully determined to build a nuclear device and test it. Nothing connected to the Iran challenge was ever simple or without risk, but the past three weeks have shown that it was certainly possible to make things worse. Also unmistakable--and far from new--is that depending for your well-being on petrostates, wherever they may be located, is a bad idea. Perhaps more Europeans understand this now, although some of the talk of reconciling with Russia makes one wonder. At the very least the obfuscating, so-called "realist," warnings that we'll be depending on fossil fuels for a long time to come may be seen as the recipe it has always been for doing too little, too late on an energy transition. 

March 18, 2026

 Wednesday. Left at ten. Blacksmith. Mild already, blue skies, moderate winds out of the southeast. De Bilt past Zeist, toward Woudenberg. Just before Woudenberg, the first three little lambs in a yard on the right. More and more bushes and trees beginning to look light-green. The woods still mostly barren. What looked like hyacinths in a few places. Light traffic on the hill. Right in Leersum and very quiet toward Ginkelduin. In the open on the Ginkelseweg, a crop well on its way in a field on the right. Hoogstraat, Ruiterberg, Maarnse Grindweg, then back toward, and up, Zeisterweg. A weekday morning, but people; as time passed, a growing number in shorts. In the news a report on the Belgian prime-minister's plea for some sort of normalization in European relations with Russia, so that Europe can resume natural gas purchases there. This man is not stupid, but apparently he's without principles. He sees no way for Ukraine to prevail, or, he has difficulty seeing how Russia can lose the war. That, surely, is not easy to see. However, to argue, essentially, that instead of continuing to pursue an outcome along these lines Europe should turn its back on Ukraine and become dependent again on a regime that since 2021 has included it in its declarations of war is both cynical and short-sighted. Perhaps the Belgian prime-minister is not as intelligent as he sometimes appears.

March 15, 2026

Sunday. Left at 9:54. Blacksmith. Pavement not completely dry after yesterday's rains, but the sun and moderate breezes out of the south were making good progress. Small gray-white clouds, and when one of them blocked the sun, it was chilly. Merwedekanaal to Vreeswijk. Runners, lots of runners. Beatrixsluis to Irenesluis (new segment) on the dike. Traffic fairly light, although the motorcycles are reappearing. River empty and calm. Birdwatchers. Little activity still at the farms. Wijkersloot to Cothen, to Hollendewagenweg. Achterdijk full of cyclists leaving the city. German stop at the Marsdijk, and home. A comment from the president which should not surprise, but still does: well, yes, Russia is probably helping Iran target American troops, but then again, we're helping the Ukrainians a little, and China is probably doing something similar. All these wars involving third countries, it's little stuff. Nothing, it appears, can come between this president and his Russian colleague. It's hard to think of a tougher challenge for U.S.-Russian relations than Moscow actively helping the country Washington is at war with, the country that's trying to kill American soldiers. But what would anger a normal person for this president is just small potatoes. In order to be outraged, one has to have principles; as a commander-in-chief sending service people into war, among one's first concerns should be to minimize casualties. But principles are for suckers, or hypocrites; and this commander-in-chief can do as he pleases. Leaving aside the rationale for this American-Israeli war on Iran, the immediate response to those actively aiding the opponent would be countermeasures, at least sanctions. Instead, in the face of Russia helping Iran this president has lifted sanctions on Russia's oil trade, a reward, in other words. To emphasize, this is not more of the "normal" behavior where Washington chooses Russia's side in the talks with Ukraine, this is Washington rewarding Russia for helping Iran target its own forces in the Gulf region. That the president doesn't care about what happens to ordinary Iranians (or Venezuelans) he has made clear already; he has now given irrefutable evidence that he doesn't care about American military personnel either. A barren wasteland where basic decency normally resides. There may be another, or additional, explanation besides the moral one, namely that of cowardice. In spite of all their bluster, bullies tend to be cowards. The president simply does not have the stomach for taking on other major powers. Beat up on small countries, certainly, but those themselves capable of inflicting damage, the "strong" leaders he admires so much? No thanks, we'd rather obfuscate, evade, accommodate. 

March 12, 2026

 Thursday. Left at 9:50. Blacksmith. Cool, with stiff breezes out of the south. Sunny, but with some stretched-out white and gray clouds around. Pavement still damp in places from yesterday's rain. Leidseweg chilly in the shade. De Meern brug to Zandweg. Over to the Rijksstraatweg halfway down toward Harmelen. Apparently we're getting new asphalt where the pink kind now ends. On the Zandweg, one yard with rose bushes in what seemed full bloom, one red bush in particular. It seemed out of place, or time. Still the detour through Harmelen, then back along the Oude Rijn toward Woerden. Pink blossoms now, next to white, more forsythia in various stages of blooming, more buds on more bushes and trees. At Woerden right toward Kamerik and Kanis, then right toward Teckop. Wide views, first toward Zegveld and Meije, later Hollandse Kade and Kockengen. Wagendijk to Kortrijk, all pretty quiet. ARK to Maarssen, then Straatweg back into town. The wars go on. It's depressing to consider that after Moscow, four years ago, Washington now also has plunged ahead driven mostly by wishful thinking or some other kind of delusion.

March 8, 2026

Sunday. We left Odijk around 11:45. Blacksmith. Mild but with some lingering light fog, which made it on the chilly side initially. Light winds, hardly noticeable. Werkhoven to Zuwe, Gooijerdijk, and Ruiterberg. Many trees and bushes now with visible buds. More pussy willows. Forsythias and magnolias also underway. Maarnse Grindweg to Quatre Bras and right toward Woudenberg. More and more cyclists and walkers out. Griftdijk and Haarweg, then Scherpenzeel and De Glind. Church people walking home on their roads. After-church lunch crowd at the Kromme Hoek in Scherpenzeel. Around Achterveld and Leusden; there also the first cows of the year. Treek to Zeisterweg climb. East side of Zeist to Driebergen and back. The war goes on, and there's much to say about its impact on the Middle East, individual countries there, U.S. democracy, transatlantic relations, international law, the global economy. Mostly negative in every instance, and it's much harder to see who or what will benefit. (Israel perhaps, in the short run). But what it also underlines is the lengths to which the president will go to avoid holding Russia responsible for any nefarious action it may take. Not even the White House has denied reports from inside the government that Moscow is helping Iran target U.S. troops in the region, but when asked about it, it treats it as something irrelevant at best. Maybe Russia should try to take back Alaska, because in response the president may say that Washington should never have bought it in the first place. 

March 6, 2026

 Friday. Left at 10. Blacksmith. Mild, mostly sunny, but a bit hazy (Saharan sand overhead, according to the forecast). Light winds out of the south. The ride of the yellow wheeping willows. Everywhere, they stood out as the first tree, or bush, certifying the start of early spring. Once or twice there were some white blossoms, not sure on what (blackthorn?). And some growth on some pussy willows. Waterfowl, especially geese, active in the fields and on the water. It was a weekday morning, but with people out, some even in shorts. Blauwkapel to Ruygenhoek and Westbroek with its defensive farmers. Tienhoven, Strook (lake almost completely still), and Scheendijk to Breukelen. Kortrijk, Gieltjesdorp, and Haarzuilens (not as quiet as it looked). Smalle Themaat (blossoms) to Lint and Hermelijnvlinderdijk. The news coming ugly and fast. The latest are reports that Russia is helping Iran with its targeting of U.S. forces. If that's true, it would be the most significant test to date for the president's loyalty to the Russian leader. If we allowed for some wishful thinking, this could end up yielding benefits for Ukraine. But let's not hold our breath.

March 1, 2026

Sunday. Left around 10:15. Too nice not to go. Sunny. Just a few white clouds around. A bit chilly, with moderate winds out of the south. Into the wind along the Merwedekanaal amid walkers, runners, and cyclists. Rowers below and to the left. Jutphaas quiet, then Nieuwegein toward Vreeswijk. Provisionary bridge across the locks, the old town, then the dike to the Beatrixsluizen. Tull en 't Waal to Strijpweg, or one prior, but it connects. Lekdijk to Lange Uitweg and Achterdijk, all the way to Pothuizerweg and the left turn toward Schalkwijk. Shifting views of Schalkwijk and its churches, the Lekdijk to the right, and in the distance the watertower at the Watertorenweg. At the Pothuizerweg the towers of Culemborg rising above the dike. Around Houten, then Achterdijk and Burgweg toward Odijk. Bunnik and Tolakkerlaan toward de Bilt. The willows on the other side of the freeway showing bright yellow-orange branches. Berenkuil back into the city. In the meantime, the regime in Teheran has been beheaded, but it has sprouted three new heads. They are getting hit with more missiles, but for now are capable of hitting back all over the region. They have also decided to stop traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. No clear signs yet of a national uprising; some reported signs of a willingness by the new leadership to talk (but consider the source). It's all very tentative. A Venezuela scenario appears possible, although this has been a very different situation for a long time. The Islamic state may still believe it can hold out long enough, and hit back hard enough, for there to be another inconclusive end to an U.S.-Israeli campaign. As last year's campaigns against Hezbollah and Hamas have demonstrated, you can kill a lot of the leadership, but the organization is rooted so deeply in society, and its members apparently so fanatically committed to the mission, that "overthrow" is a most inadequate term, as is regime change. More prosaically, many of the members and beneficiaries have everything to lose--money, power, their lives--if a fundamental change began. Of course, we've seen other systems of government disintegrate where they appeared to be firmly lodged, and we know that a lot of Iranians thoroughly loathe the Islamic state and its enforcers. For the time being, however, the latter have the money and the guns.

February 28, 2026

Saturday. Left at 9:30. Nikor. Borderline chilly, with fairly stiff southwesterly breezes. Gray skies, but varied, with very light spots, even pieces of blue. Once or twice, the sun itself tried to push through. Pavement a little damp from overnight showers, and puddles. Gele brug to Alendorp and Rivierpad. Saturday activities: walkers, runners, dogs, children. The grass alongside the Rivierpad looked as if it's coming out of hibernation. The rest of the land and the trees not yet. Breudijk to Gerverscop. Some cars. The views west from the Rodendijk. Schutterskade to Galgerwaard. Breukelen to Scheendijk-zuid. Stork couples taking up residence on the nests alongside the Strook and the Bethuneweg. Birdspotters were out too. Herenweg to Oud-Zuilen, and back into the city amid the runners. The paper at Mos didn't have the overnight news yet of the new assault on Iran. It was clear that we were headed for this, but what this is supposed to be exactly is not clear. Regime change may sound good, since few would mourn the demise of the Islamic state. But exactly what would take its place is far from clear. Given the extent to which the Revolutionary Guards have entangled themselves with the state and the country at large, the replacement of the Ayathollas by some other leaders may not change all that much, least of all for the population. How this replacement would happen is one of the many unknowns, but the administration probably believes they're doing some kind of rerun of the Venezuela operation, minus the kidnapping of the regime's head guy. It is not clear at all how much that would change in the country and the region, and it's certainly possible that a collapse of the Islamic state could lead to chaos and more bloodshed. As to motives, it's best to keep the personal interests of the leader in the White House front and center. After all, for the leader himself, there's nothing else. In other cases we might speak of political objectives, but in this instance that's a meaningless distinction. The perverse upside of this operation going off the rails would be that the domestic troubles of the president and his allies would only get worse.

February 25, 2026

Wednesday. Left 9:05. Nikor. Clear skies and full sun, but pavement wet from overnight showers. Fairly mild, moderate winds from the southeast. De Bilt to Soesterberg and Zeisterspoor (flat). Initially, lots of commuters everywhere. Some roundabout way through Leusden, then Aschatterweg to Achterveld. De Roskam. The village getting ready for what appeared to be funeral. Small-ish cups of coffee, modest pieces of apple pie, equally slight whipped cream supplement. Only a cookie with the second coffee. Gelderse Vallei, where folks tend to do things the way they have been doing them for a long time. Nothing wrong with that, refreshing actually, coming from the land of the flat whites. Chilly getting back on, fog-like clouds whafting over the land, as if a morning fog was just burning up, and maybe it was. Eventually spring did come. Helweg to Renswoudsestraatweg, and through Renswoude. Biesbosserweg and Groeperweg on the way to the Amerongseberg, where it was fairly quiet and mostly without diesel or other fumes (one stinking, old-style moped). Behind Leersum to Gooyerdijk, all the way to Sterkenburgerlaan. Beverweerd and tunnel toward the Achterdijk. More tailwind, lots more people taking advantage of the weather. Other than snow bells, daffodils, and croci, not too much happening yet in nature. That should start to change very soon now. Marsdijk and Koningsweg back into town.  

February 23, 2026

Monday. Left around 9:40. Nikor. Overcast, not as chilly, but stiff southwesterly breeze. Koningsweg to Wayen and Lekdijk. Bakery smells on the Sluispad. The river very quiet, and just a few cars along the way. The sun trying to make it through the cloud cover but not really succeeding. Fierce cross winds just before the ferry to Beusichem. Across the locks and left onto the Wijkersloot. Two guys with a wheelbarrow and a shovel pouring gravel into the puddles by the side of the road. Spiegelweg and Bredeweg toward Cothen, then left onto the Ossenwaard. Watertorenweg to Zuwe and on to Driebergen. The talk of some early spring weather is all around, but today was just a decent winter day. Mini croci and snowbells in Driebergen. Traaij with damp to wet pavement. Same on the way to Zeist/Huis ter Heide. Home into the wind by way of de Bilt. Four years of war today, and new Russian attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure. However, the Hungarian government, supported by Slovakia, is happy to block urgently needed EU aid for Kyiv as well as new EU sanctions on Moscow. Perhaps the Hungarian prime minister is playing one of his extortionist games, making his assent conditional on Brussel's transfer of funds to his corrupt government. This has succeeded in the past, but perhaps it should not be allowed to succeed this time, since that would only help the prime minister and his allies in the national elections in April. While we do want him to lose, we don't want to make Ukraine's predicament even more serious than it already is. We need some creative thinking in Brussels and other European capitals, and we need some Taurus missiles finally to go Kyiv's way. 

February 20, 2026

 Friday. Left a little after ten. Nikor. Gray, overcast with some gray clouds moving through underneath the higher layer. Moderate winds out of the southwest. Chilly, but well above freezing. Pavement still damp from early morning showers. Blauwkapel to Groenedijk and Korssesteeg. On the trails, hardly a soul, but in the fields and on the water, the waterfowl seemingly getting ready for spring. Korssesteeg with its farmers playing victim. Airfield to Oud Loosdrecht. Mini croci coming up in the strip between bike path and roadway at the Molenmeent. The evidence of the rich and infamous in Loosdrecht. The new, off-the-scale apartment building is only the latest, but probably also the ugliest example. Then right. The  Loenderveense plas lapping at the bike path. Moleneind. Left toward Vreeland, then the west side of the Vecht to Loenen. Dorpstraat to the very end, then straatweg past Nieuwersluis. Too many cars on the short section to Nieuwersluis. Then ARK to Maarssen. Wind, barges, and dog people. Straatweg back into the city. A decent winter day, with the first taste of spring supposedly just around the corner. In a yard in Loosdrecht, there was what could have been a forsythia, already looking quite yellow. Snow bells in some places also, of course, and daffodils--although all still very sparse. In the news, more talk of Europeans doing more together on defense and intelligence sharing, but also new reports on how the Germans and the French can't agree on how to develop a new fighter plane. An older report also on how Europeans and Americans together have been more aggressive against Russia's shadow fleet of oil tankers and how it's hurting Moscow's ability to finance its economy and its war. But rather than focus on changing Moscow's calculations vis-a-vis its war against Ukraine, Washington seems intent on launching new attacks on Iran's military and nuclear infrastructure. That seems like a distraction, not just from Ukraine, but also, and likely intentionally, from some domestic troubles facing the White House. It's hard to detect a coherent strategy behind it all, other than a preoccupation with headlines and domination of the so-called news cycle. Compared to that, Europe's conditional and cumbersome steps toward greater collaboration and independence don't look quite so inadequate.

February 18, 2026

Thursday. Left a little before 10:30. Nikor, but the pavement was dry everywhere in spite of yesterday's showers. Moderate, chilly winds out of the east. A weak sun working its way through a high, thin obstructive layer. Straatweg to Deka brug, with its ridiculous but longstanding ramp, especially the tight hairpin turn. The railroad bridge is vital, but this bike path could have been upgraded years ago. 50 year-old infrastructure has its charms (see Gieltjesdorp), but at a place like this it's inappropriate. From the bridge, a novel but bland view of the canal. Lage Weide not too busy, then Zuilensebrug into the wind. Winter. Maarssen and its bridge across the ARK, then around the Haarrijnseplas to Smalle Themaat and toward the Rijnveldsche Boschpad. Around the parks surrounding Haarzuilens and the castle. Lots of snow bells have emerged there. Natuurpad toward Laag Nieuwkoop empty and barren. Gerverscop with the tailwind and in the weak sun. Gerverscop naturally and agriculturally still mostly inactive. Breudijk to Tiendweg and Dorpeldijk. Then Zandweg into the cold wind. Across on the Daphne, a stop at Taart, then into the city. In the news the report than U.S.-brokered peace talks between Russia and Ukraine only lasted for two hours this morning and prove to be "difficult." No surprise at all. In a way, the recent visit by the Archivist of the United States to Hungary's Russia-friendly leader, and his endorsement of the man for his upcoming national elections, told us all we needed to know--have known for more than a year now, if not longer.

February 15, 2026

 Sunday. Left a little after ten. Blacksmith. Sunny and cold; wind chills well below freezing. Moderate winds out of the southeast. Berenkuil and east, toward Zeist, seeking shelter from the wind. Sunday morning traffic through Zeist, Driebergen, and Doorn. One estate after another. Ruiterberg very quiet, Hoogstraat equally so. Some other riders. The woods barren and cold. Straight at the bottom of the hill. Darthuizerweg to Langbroekerweg. Then, it soon became clear, east instead of west on Gooijerdijk. Amerongerwetering--cars--to Langbroekerdijk--more peaceful. Over-Langbroek as it's supposed to be--nothing ugly. Steenen Brug, Langbroek, and beyond in balance too. Tailwind, light traffic, all of nature asleep, save for some swans in the fields, and a lone white heron. Odijk to Bunnik and straight to Koningslaan, Laan van Maarschalkerweerd, and the city. News of new Ukrainian attacks on Russian port facilities on the Black Sea. Long may they burn. And the address by the Archivist of the United States in Munich. We are still allies, perhaps even family, and that's not incorrect. It's certainly much better than sanctimonious hectoring, but the man he works for is not trustworthy, and that man is in charge. The Ukrainian president also spoke, and he made the crucial point: Washington is asking Ukraine to make most of the concessions, and not only does it fail to ask Russia to give in, it also fails to put any meaningful pressure on Moscow. 

February 11, 2026

Wednesday. Left around 9:45. Nikor. It hadn't stopped raining after all: very thin drizzle for the first 45 minutes. Fairly mild, virtually no wind. Gray all around, barely a kilometer visibility. Gele brug to Lint, right and around to Smalle Themaat, Vleuten, and Haarrijnsepad. Very few people out. Haarzuilens to Laag Nieuwkoop en Gerverscop. A gray peace all around. The daffodils again in Harmelen, but otherwise no sign anywhere of impending spring. It's not impending; it still feels as if it's weeks away. Zandweg back to the city and Mos. The Ukrainian president cited in the paper, saying that the peace talks are not yielding enough for his country--this alongside reports of Russian advances on two crucial towns in the Donbas, and more reports of how the lack of access to Starlink satellites is complicating Russia's military activities. Assuming Ukraine retains Starlink access, the three reports combined could point to another surprise move soon by Ukraine, one on the model of the airfield raid on Russia's strategic bomber fleet last year. It would be welcome amid Russia's constant terror attacks on Ukrainian civilian targets although it's unlikely suddenly to change the Kremlin's calculations. Welcome also would be some news about renewed European weapons shipments to Kyiv, both defensive and offensive.

February 8, 2026

Sunday. Left about 10:20. Nikor. Cool, sunny, just some light clouds here and there, light winds out of the southeast. Singel to Koningsweg and Marsdijk. Achterdijk fairly quiet. Werkhoven and Hollendewagenweg. Then, toward the south and the ARK and the river, gray fog from up high all the way to the land. The sun went away just before Dwarsdijk. ARK, from the chilly old brick road, gray and empty. At the river, initially just  300 meters visibility. The river very vague. At Culemborg, the town obscured, but a light gray spot just above, and the sun just visible. Afterwards it cleared more, although it took until the Merwedekanaal for the sun and the sunny skies to return. Lekdijk very quiet. Looking south from the Overeindsebrug, the gray skies and fog below over the water, all backlit, with a semblance of the sun in the middle. Mos and yesterday's paper with Friday's news: a new deadline from the White House for Russia and Ukraine to make peace. (Or else--not much). Also the news that, according to Kyiv, Washington is eager to make business deals with Moscow. So not much has changed, other than the further exhaustion of both sides, but especially Ukraine. They have no cards, their president was told a year ago. It has become clear that Washington is able but unwilling to give them a better hand, while Europe might say it will do more but then rarely does. There is pressure on Moscow through the various oil boycotts and interceptions of shadow fleet ships. Indirectly, there appear to have been some efforts to deny Russia access to Starlink communication satellites. On the whole, it's too little and it might prove to have been too late.  It appears that Moscow's threats, including nuclear threats, do deter Ukraine's Western friends. Moscow does have a lot of ways to make life unpleasant for Europeans, but more anti-missile defense capacity should be a minimum. Better ways for Ukraine to hit Russian oil infrastructure and drone and missile factories really should be tried too. It's not as if the Russian economy is doing so well, far from it. Of course, the question "how does Russia lose" remains very relevant. It's not unreasonable to worry about the things a cornered nuclear power, led by a dictator fearing to have thrown away literally everything, might do. But the lack of commitment by the one power potentially able to change the correlation of forces in the war causes the other key question to remain much more pertinent, namely: how do we keep Ukraine from losing?

February 7, 2026

Saturday. Left around 9:50. Nikor. Cool, with last night's rain still on the pavement, the fields, and in the air. Light winds out of the south, and just a few white smudges in the skies. Groenekan to Maartensdijk; the sun hitting the rows of trees along the Lindenlaan beautifully. Embranchementsweg open again, but left to Lage Vuursche (quiet) and Hoge Vuurscheweg (likewise). Then toward Soestdijk and the Wilhelminalaan. Eng in various kinds of green: grass, left-over stubs from last fall, and some new crops just getting started. Soestduinen to Soesterhoogt. Runway plain wet but also very quiet. Bosch en Duin to de Bilt and home. 

February 2, 2026

Monday. Left at ten. Nikor. Sunny with hardly a smudge in the sky until the very end. Moderate, chilly winds out of the southeast. Warming up over the yellow bridge and through Leidse Rijn to Alendorp. Old Dutch Reformed church building, redone as a residence. Change is inevitable, but like so many things in this area, it could have been a lot worse. Rivierpad flat, abandoned, open. Two large trees (willows?), starkly green but mostly bare, towering over the land. Kortjakjespad with its alley of trees and the railroad behind it. Gerverscop quiet, though not abandoned. Koots and sheep seemingly aware that it's only early February. Breeveld (broad fruit trees on the left), to Geestdorp and Hollandse Kade. Lots of willows have been pruned since the last time. Just two walkers on the way to Teckop. Spengen to Geerkade and Portengen. Weekday mid-mornings are nice and quiet. Galgerwaard to Breukelen, Gunterstein and Scheendijk. Wind. Veenkade, Herenweg, Oud Zuilen and Mos. In the paper a report on how Iranian elites reportedly are moving assets out of the country in anticipation of a possible U.S. attack. Apparently Dubai and other Gulf locations are happy to let them park their money, the way these places seem happy to accommodate all selfish, self-dealing comers. Globalization has many benefits, and many of its elements are near-inevitable thanks to technology. But the drawbacks can be severe, especially the myriad ways in which the rich and powerful can distance themselves from any kind of restriction on their ability to earn and keep their money. No surprise that ordinary folk trying to play by the rules sometimes can be mobilized by anti-globalist populists. Not that the latter have any serious proposals for addressing these inequities, but it's still hard to refute those who argue that, on balance, globalization without accountability does more harm than good. We are, of course, moving ever further away from a world in which countries work from the same rule book, and so the strong do what they want, and the rich grab what they can. The losers, self-perceived or otherwise, will continue to fight back. 

January 30, 2026

Friday. Left at three. Nikor. Moderate but chilly winds from the East. Fantastic skies: white-gray, blue-gray, steel-gray layered all around with pink over the horizon toward the south. One time, the sun tried hard to work its way through it all, but it failed. Koningsweg to Wayen and ARK into the wind. Passed by a good pace-setter. Schalkwijk to Tetwijksepad. Culemborg just faintly to the left. Achterdijk and Tull en 't Waal quiet. Tower of Everdingen behind the dike to the left, with pink-gray light behind it; tower of Schalkwijk in the gray to the right. Plofsluis to Jutphase brug and Merwedekanaal. Wind chills were above freezing, but 90-some minutes was enough. A new government in this country, with priorities that make sense: much more defense spending and limits on various social and care programs. The question now is whether the public can be persuaded this is necessary. Perhaps it can, but it is unlikely to happen if people most affected by these social and health policies continue to see evidence that--to name just one statistic of the recent era--the number of millionaires in the country keeps growing. No justice, no (investement in) peace.

January 24, 2026

Saturday. Left by 10. Nikor. Cold but sunny, just some thin, white could cover to the northeast. Light winds out of the east. West side of the Vecht all the way to development at the end of the Daalseweg. Places sheltered from sun and wind still a little damp, and there, it also looked potentially icy in a few places. Zuilensebrug, back across at Maarssen, ARK to Woerdensweg. Back across the canal at Breukelen, then Angstelkade. The land at rest everywhere. Loenersloot bridge to Loenen, then Vecht. Scheendijk torn up, so Gunterstein to the open part. Not busy anywhere, but people out everywhere, on bikes, walking, running. Veenkade, Herenweg, and Oud Zuilen back to town. The Greenland crisis has been diffused, but the American president makes sure the NATO crisis continues, most recently through his ignorant and insulting remarks about the allied contributions in Afghanistan. Last night on the BBC there was someone from his world shameless enough to defend it, but on this side of the Atlantic there can't be any serious people left who will put any stock into an administration under such leadership, or, for that matter, a country that elects a person such as this one not once, but twice. However, the conclusion that "Europe" needs to take care of itself has been obvious for a year now; what matters--and what should be the focus of everyone's attention--is what "Europe" is able to accomplish concretely here. The list of priorities is long, but none is more urgent than providing Ukraine the wherewithal to survive and to force Russia to stop the war. Not too much in the news about that, recently.

January 21, 2026

Wednesday. Left 9:10 in a light rain. Nikor. The rain stopped within minutes, and toward the east some light already visible near the horizon. Chilly, but in the course of the day it got a good deal milder. De Bilt, Bilthoven, den Dolder, and the train tracks to Amersfoort. Along the trail still some left-over bits of snow. As always happens, on the Vlasakkerweg it is the 1960s. Bisschopsweg to Randebroekerweg and Hogeweg. The last time must have been in the 1980s. The second part is now pleasantly deserted; the bike lane is on the road--what used to be the narrow bike path now serves as side walk. Amersfoortseweg to Nijkerk, which starts a lot earlier than back then. Downtown, stores and restaurants, lots of them. We left going east, Oude Barneveldseweg, past the soccerfields to the Bloemendaalseweg. The Deuverdenseweg to Driedorp. Slichtenhorsterweg to Blokhuizersteeg. Different kinds of farms, the kind you see in the middle of the country, which is what this is. Roundabout way to Terschuur (Hoevelaken, Zwartebroek), the way the bus used to go in 1982. Then Achterveld and the Hessenweg to Stoutenburg. Zwarteweg and Hamersveldseweg to de Mof. It felt a bit like the edge of Leusden, and way back when it probably was, but today it's essentially straight through town. The sun was coming out, the wind mostly at the back. Den Treek, and up the Treekerweg. Pavement clean. Then toward Huis ter Heide, de Bilt, and home. Our interesting times continue; things fall apart visibly on a daily basis. Usually those developments end badly. I fear that the people of Ukraine will suffer even more, for starters. And the Americans are next, even though many don't seem to realize it fully. However, as the resistance to the regime becomes more widespread, the regime may well double down. We will find out how ruthless they can be. Perhaps they will accept there are limits beyond which even they can't go, perhaps not. The behavior of the leader suggests there will be escalation. 

January 19, 2026

Monday. Left around 12:15. Still cold, also damp. Light winds out of the southeast. A weak sun early on, but it got covered mostly by gray-white clouds--nothing solid, but no real rays making it onto the fields. Pavement not dried out, and in some places plain damp. In the city, fresh salt had been put down. Leidseweg to de Meern brug and Zandweg. Some daffodils. More daffodils in Harmelen. Into the wind toward Achthoven. Meerlobrug to Nedereindseweg. In the very small canals there was still some left-over ice. Jutphaas to Plofsluis to Heemskerk. Looking east from there, a preposterous digital billboard alongside the freeway, as if the business park itself wasn't bad enough. Wayen and Mereveldseweg back to the city. The Greenland story gets more farcical by the day, except that it's deadly serious. It is clear now that the president does not feel inhibited by anything. Still, we are all impatiently waiting for enough Republican senators to test this proposition, and soon.  

January 17, 2026

Saturday. Left at 9:45. Nikor. Sunny, with some receding clouds around, light southeasterly breezes, cool but turning milder quickly. Pavement damp to wet, but the shift toward cooler, dryer weather definitely underway. Singel to Koningsweg, Vechten and Achterdijk. The land empty, save for some sheep here and there. Werkhoven to Dwarsdijk, then Kapelleweg. Farms at rest everywhere. Lek and Lekdijk very quiet, hardly any motorized traffic. The shifting views of the railroad bridge at Houten. The sun on Vreeswijk in the distance. Beatrixsluis, Plofsluis, Jutphase brug, and Merwedekanaal back to the city. A new threat from the White House: those (allies) who don't support his acquisition of Greenland can look forward to new tariffs. The U.S. allies depend on Washington for all kinds of things, so it is not feasible simply to say that where the administration does what it feels it needs to do, the same goes for allies. It would deny the central rationale for having an alliance, and, again, is probably not feasible for all kinds of reasons. Still, the clarity of it all looks attractive. We choose our friends and allies ourselves, and we'd rather have nothing to do with you. We don't expect anything from you either (this is where the infeasibility comes in, just think of LNG purchases)--instead, let's just keep our distance. Attractive, but even if countries on this side of the Atlantic somehow managed to adjust and survive, the regime would not leave them be, since domination is the name of its game. And so the leader is correct when he points out that the allies are powerless against him. On their own, they are, for sure, but it still appears that, at least on the Greenland issue, there are some partners to be found on Capitol Hill. More broadly, most Americans are far from enthusiastic, and their disapproval extends to many domestic questions. The big question in the coming months will be how the regime will respond in the face of what is likely to be growing adversity at home and abroad. The leader's impulse is always to attack, but part of his strategy for survival has also been the expedient u-turn. 

PS: Just hours later, the news that Washington has slapped 10% tariffs on imports from the NATO member states that are sending military personnel to Greenland in preparation for an alliance mission there. Intended, naively in retrospect, to reassure the White House that NATO is capable of defending alliance security interests in the region, the administration took it as a provocation. As a sign of the extent to which Europe remains one or two steps behind, the same Dutch foreign minister who, just one week ago, actually took up a question put to him as to whether he'd support a U.S. acquisition of Greenland (instead of insisting that the question is not on the table--supporting Denmark and Greenland in their rejection is-- he said, if Denmark and Greenland agree, it would be fine with him), that same person now publicly uses the word "blackmail" to characterize the president's new tariffis. Whether the tariffs actually get implemented, we'll have to see (there's still the Supreme Court case, and there's still the Senate), but at the very least this foreign minister should be disqualified from continuing in his post due to plain incompetence.

January 15, 2026

 Thursday. Left a little before 9:45. Nikor. Light rain and rush hour traffic on the way out of town. Light southwesterly winds, the sky a gray dome over everything. Mild. Rain ceasing and momentarily replaced by the coffee roasting on the way up the Gele Brug. Traffic thinning out in Leidse Rijn. Alendorp, then Vleuterweide. Alongside the Stroomrugbaan little yellow daffodils, and it wasn't their first day above ground. Rivierpad to Breudijk. Gerverscop very quiet; De Haar towers visible, but otherwise mostly gray horizons nearby. Rodendijk, Schutterskade, Galgerwaard, and across the ARK. On the way down some doubts about the rear tubular, so straatweg back, although by way also of Woerdenseweg. Oud Zuilen to Mos. In the paper reports on the D.C. meetings between the Danes and Greenlanders on one side, and the chief multi-tasker and the vice-president on the other. The latter two are supposed to collaborate in the pursuit of the commander-in-chief's wishes, but they are also rivals for the succession, still assuming this will need to happen by 2028. Perhaps the fact that most of the news about the meeting came from Danish and Greenlandic participants, and that there has been very little commentary from the U.S. side, suggests that in Washington nobody, perhaps including the boss himself, has any clear idea of how to follow up on the bold claims. It could even be that rival camps are fighting each other over this issue. That would potentially be helpful for European efforts to preserve the basic status quo. 

January 12, 2026

Monday. Left at 2. Nikor. Damp and overcast, but well above freezing. Foul air everywhere, in spite of light southerly breezes. Snow and ice melting, but not gone by any means. Berenkuil to de Bilt. Some residential streets and many trails still full of melting frozen stuff, for example in Bosch en Duin. Mesdaglaan, Duinweg, back at the straatweg, then left toward Den Dolder. The main bike paths all wet, but rideable. Embranchementsweg to Maartensdijk. Around Westbroek the fields were almost entirely green already. There, not too much traffic, but on the whole just about every passing car stank. Gageldijk to Blauwkapel and home. Greenland continues to be in the headlines; it's prime real estate and we have to have it. It's impossible to predict how it's going to play out, but the history of transatlantic relations suggests something can be worked out that will allow everyone involved to feel satisfied. As a piece in the Frankfurter argued this weekend, there are some factors constraining the White House, in spite of everything: certain Republican senators, and a long-established American interest in being part of a stable and secure Europe. Simply occupying Greenland against the wishes of the local population, but certainly the European allies, would run into roadblocks on Capitol Hill, and it would run counter to the goals even this administration pursues in the world. In spite of their dependence on Washington in their support of Ukraine, occupation and annexation of Greenland most likely would cause Europeans (if they haven't already) to give up on the U.S. It would in all likelihood lead to the unraveling of NATO; Europeans would take another step in together organizing their own defense where until now, this has been a procession of Echternach. Not that they would have an easy time of it, but there would be no alternative. Ukraine would have to rely on its own resources even more that it does already. Russia would see all kinds of opportunities further to undermine European collaboration, and it would surely push even harder to submit Ukraine. It does not have to happen this way. Western geo-strategical interests in the polar region can be accomplished in ways that don't jeopardize all kinds of other U.S. interests, while the exploration of the island's raw materials won't happen overnight anyway and would probably be harmed by an annexation running rough-shod over allied and local opposition. This would be a rational look, as opposed to a wag-the-dog or a might-makes-right scenario. It is a measure of how far we have declined that the latter can't just be ruled out. 

January 5, 2026

Monday. Left around 1:15. Focus. Snow, the top layer newly fallen. The two tunnels to Veemarkt, Hooge Kampse Plas, and Beukenburg. Some people out, but mostly quiet on the roads and trails. Snow on the fields, snow on the tree branches. Turning off Beukenburg the front wheel got away and the rear brake came loose as it hit the ground, but no harm done. Prinsenlaan to Maartensdijk, to a deserted, magical Eikensteeg. Around Lage Vuursche and further north via the Kloosterlaan. An occasional mountainbiker. Wasmeer and back toward Hollandsche Rading. Bike paths into the wind and with the low sun to Groenekan. Another slide-out at Blauwkapel, then home. The implementation of the latest corollary to the Monroe Doctrine all over the news. Do as I say, or else--but the "else" may turn out to be complicated, and of course deadly for ordinary Venezuelans and possibly U.S. military personnel. Shocking how there are still national security professionals, as in an op-ed in the Times yesterday, contorting a justification for it all. Or maybe they're just part of the wider team. Why try to learn from previous experience if none of the consequences of these actions ever affect you personally? Might makes right--just make sure you're with might, and the people paying the price might as well not exist. Today, from the White House, additional noises about how "force" ought to guide policy. Hubristic and short-sighted, although still ruthless, and possibly increasingly so as resistance grows. How ruthless exactly, at home or abroad, we'll find out this year. Regardless, all power politics, all self-interest and no trust, no shared principles or institutions, it eventually leads to a world of all against all. Nobody wins in that scenario. This should be the lesson of 1914-1945, but, again, if the really bad stuff has always happened to others, you can come to believe that such lessons don't apply to you. Against the background of last year's experience with China's rare-earths boycott and the new National Security Strategy, the noises about Greenland are perfectly understandable. (Justified is a different matter). They are also much more than simple noises, because the current dependence on China for these vital resources really must keep the administration up at night. If your entire being consists of doing whatever the hell you want, and bragging about it, such vulnerability, such dependence, must be your worst nightmare. Opposition from hand-wringing, hapless Europeans is not going to stand in the way of addressing this vital geo-strategic issue, it is not going to stop the administration from taking the resources it considers essential for its global pre-eminence. And so, the dismantling proceeds, and the world becomes an ever uglier place.