March 1, 2026

Sunday. Left around 10:15. Too nice not to go. Sunny. Just a few white clouds around. A bit chilly, with moderate winds out of the south. Into the wind along the Merwedekanaal amid walkers, runners, and cyclists. Rowers below and to the left. Jutphaas quiet, then Nieuwegein toward Vreeswijk. Provisionary bridge across the locks, the old town, then the dike to the Beatrixsluizen. Tull en 't Waal to Strijpweg, or one prior, but it connects. Lekdijk to Lange Uitweg and Achterdijk, all the way to Pothuizerweg and the left turn toward Schalkwijk. Shifting views of Schalkwijk and its churches, the Lekdijk to the right, and in the distance the watertower at the Watertorenweg. At the Pothuizerweg the towers of Culemborg rising above the dike. Around Houten, then Achterdijk and Burgweg toward Odijk. Bunnik and Tolakkerlaan toward de Bilt. The willows on the other side of the freeway showing bright yellow-orange branches. Berenkuil back into the city. In the meantime, the regime in Teheran has been beheaded, but it has sprouted three new heads. They are getting hit with more missiles, but for now are capable of hitting back all over the region. They have also decided to stop traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. No clear signs yet of a national uprising; some reported signs of a willingness by the new leadership to talk (but consider the source). It's all very tentative. A Venezuela scenario appears possible, although this has been a very different situation for a long time. The Islamic state may still believe it can hold out long enough, and hit back hard enough, for there to be another inconclusive end to an U.S.-Israeli campaign. As last year's campaigns against Hezbollah and Hamas have demonstrated, you can kill a lot of the leadership, but the organization is rooted so deeply in society, and its members apparently so fanatically committed to the mission, that "overthrow" is a most inadequate term, as is regime change. More prosaically, many of the members and beneficiaries have everything to lose--money, power, their lives--if a fundamental change began. Of course, we've seen other systems of government disintegrate where they appeared to be firmly lodged, and we know that a lot of Iranians thoroughly loathe the Islamic state and its enforcers. For the time being, however, the latter have the money and the guns.