August 9, 2026

Sunday. Left at 10:10. Blacksmith. Warm, sunny, with some thin, stretched-out white clouds to the south. Very little wind. City very quiet, and so were Groenekan--by way of Hooge Kampse Plas--and Maartensdijk. Cyclists in Lage Vuursche, still not fully open. The air was dusty on the roadway due to the gravel riders alongside it. Soestdijk and the Eng. Some corn looking well, another patch where it seemed stunted. To Soester Hoogt, where near the top the turn has been adjusted, probably to slow down descenders from the other side before they reach the roadway. Around Soesterberg to Schaerweijde; around Zeist toward De Bilt and Møs. Yesterday's paper reporting additional information on Ukraine's strikes on Russia's Wildberries warehouses: not only does the on-line retailer have a separate section with military hardware in support of the war, they also owe a lot of money to a big Russian bank that itself is in trouble. If Wildberries can't meet its financial obligations, that bank may get into trouble, causing a wider financial crisis which for its part would make it harder for the Kremlin to finance its war. What we have (had) now is what you could call "total war": strategies going well beyond the military battlefield and targeting the opposing society's ability to sustain the war effort. Russia has attacked Ukraine's civilian infrastructure since it failed to accomplish a quick break-through in 2023, but Ukraine in the past year or two increasingly has taken the war to Russian society too. Also, where the Kremlin has tried to shield ordinary Russians from a full mobilization, so Ukraine's Western friends have mostly tried to tell themselves that they're not really in this war, in spite of many pledges, and evidence, of support. The Russian president may soon have to face the music at home for pretending there isn't a war going on, but Western governments should already feel very uneasy about the slow pace with which they have tried to increase their production of missiles, anti-ballistic missile systems, and other military hardware. Western leaders are already in trouble for the way they have pretended to their constituents that Ukraine's war in the end isn't really ours, because it is. The unease could soon turn into regret, even shame, and it would all be earned. On the shady side at Møs, a person found it necessary to conduct an on-screen, speaker-phone conversation for fifteen or so minutes. Why not, since we were the only two people there? As that very important conversation continued, the last bit of the paper, AD, on the sunny side of the building (four cars ignoring the do-not-enter sign in fifteen minutes). Letters to the editor on the special subject of the heat this year. It may not have been a representative sample, but maybe it was: what's the problem with nice, warm weather? So much better than rain and gray skies. In a month or so, we'll be back enduring those conditions. There's climate change and such, but I'll be gone by the time that becomes a real problem. And so on. Presumably, these letter writers occasionally look at their paper and what it reports on some of the other effects of all this pleasant weather. But maybe not. It's much easier to ignore news you can't use--until that news stops ignoring you.

August 8, 2026

Saturday. Left a little before 10:30. Blacksmith. Clear skies, a white smudge here and there. Warm. Light, apparently shifting winds. The usual Saturday traffic in town. Vecht westside; pleasure boat traffic, out-to-lunch fatbiker. Op Buuren, and a little impatient coming off the Oostwaarderbrug. Then Zuilense brug and Maarssenbroek. Haarrijnse plas and Rijneveldsche Boschpad. Past Gieltjesdorp toward the nature trail to Laag Nieuwkoop. Grass has been cut everywhere, in places perhaps earlier than normal, for example the west end of Gerverscop. Bike path to Woerden, then Cattenbroek, very peacful. Enough time to notice the partly-hidden, huge barns of the dairy producers. Achthoven to IJsseldijk and Meerlobrug. From the Nedereindseweg a farmer visible with his tractor, running a pump to spray water over his land. The water was black. Racers making the turn to Nedereindse Berg. Merwedekanaal back into town. Out-to-lunch fatbiker. Everything normal, except for the drought.

August 7, 2026

 Friday. Left 10:03. Blacksmith. Overcast, with many shades and shapes of gray. Here and there a sliver of blue, and toward the end even a minute of light rain. Light winds out of the southwest. Berenkuil, KNMI, toward Zeist. Bisschopsweg toward Bunnik, then left, toward Tiendweg and Bunsinglaan. Right at the Driebergen train station, toward Odijk, then left: a quiet Rijnseweg all the way to Sterkenburg. Zuwe to Watertorenweg and Tuurdijk (the lone tree). The fields a mixture of yellow and brown. One or two growers busy spraying, which is still allowed. 't Goy, past Houten, and toward Schalkwijk. Tetwijksepad and the towers of Culemborg; Achterdijk and the view of Schalkwijk's V-shape. Lekdijk and bypass to Beatrixsluis and Sluispad. Jutphaas and Merwedekanaal back into the city and Møs. Still only AD, which covered the armed drone next to a Ukrainian transport plane at Leipzig the other day. We, here in Western Europe, may not consider ourselves at war with Moscow, but Moscow sees it differently. The paper was quiet on the fact that Ukraine has run out of defenses against Russian ballistic missiles. That's an eerie and ominous quiet before the storm. After all, for the Kremlin, its war against Ukraine has always been about submission. From its perspective, this has to be the moment to escalate in order to force Kyiv to its knees. It may not be possible to achieve a break-through at the front, and Russia itself is surely taking a beating from Ukraine's drone offensive. But how long will Ukraine be able to take a sustained Russian missile barrage on its civilian and military infrastructure? The way we've gotten to know the Russian president, he must be issuing orders for his military to find out, and soon. Apparently, there's little to nothing Kyiv's friends and partners in the West are able to do to help on this particular, potentially life-or-death, issue. 

August 2, 2026

 Sunday. Left at 9:55. Blacksmith. Warm, not hot. Some white in the skies. Light, eventually moderate, breezes out of the east. Straatweg out of town. Notably busier than at nine. Maarssen to ARK eastside, and Maarssenbroekdijk-Otterspoorbroek-Woerdenseweg. There are some of the original places left, but most on this sheltered stretch is modern and upscale, often decorated with expensive vehicles. Toward Breukelen alongside riders on the other side of the river. Pleasure boats on the river--pleasure boats everywhere. Across the ARK and north toward the Angstelkade. Deserted, but pleasure boats audible on the other side of the reeds. Heading east, a brownish puddle of water on the road--out of place, since our last rain of any significance dates back to a week ago. Loenersloot and west, toward Vinkeveen. Sunday cyclists everywhere. Bikepath Groenlandsekade to Baambrugse Zuwe and its opulence. Hotel Plashoeve hanging on from an earlier era. With all the money on that stretch, there should be a way to not only preserve, but also restore it. The way it looks these days, it could be gone soon if nothing changes. Bridge between the lakes open. Later, puddles on the asphalt, but here because of the low-lying road, so low that at times the water on the other side of the reeds seems to sit above it. Left at the village, toward Demmerik. The little bridge at the edge of town opened, for the pleasure boats, when it came into view. A young woman, also stopped at the earlier barrier, on her way to Kasteel de Haar. Her speed was higher both times--until it wasn't. Donkereind, Portengen, the skills bike path to Gieltjesdorp, then Haarzuilens. Smalle Themaat, Lint, and 't Zand to Gele brug, and back into town. In the news, the next round in the Washington see-saw: maybe we won't allow Ukraine to produce Patriot missiles after all, and let's hold off on the announced devastating strikes on Iranian civilian infrastructure. Peace is at hand once more--until it isn't. Ukraine, meanwhile can't defend itself any more against Russian ballistic missiles, even if it can still strike all kinds of Russian targets. 

August 1, 2026

Saturday. Left by ten. Blacksmith. Warm, not hot. Light winds, clouds visible on the northwestern horizon. Merwedekanaal to Jutphaas. At the bottom of the bridge the ugly outcome of a bicycle collision or crash. Ambulance, police, two buses going nowhere. One woman, oxygen mask and all, flat on a stretcher, being prepared for the ambulance, another, dazed, sitting on the ground, her back against a traffic pole. Police apparently canvassing bystanders. One bicycle still on its side in the middle of the road. On to Vreeswijk, then Lekdijk. The wetland areas close to the levee drying out, but the shipping channel seemed ok. First a half-full fuel-barge, then a container barge about half-full, then a smaller barge apparently fully loaded--all headed west. Later also a fully-loaded smaller barge coming east. Light traffic on the levee, its grasses a mixture of yellow and green. Lopik to Polsbroekerdam and Oudewater (bridge up). Snelrewaard peaceful, as was Montfoort. Harmelen, de Meern, de Meernbrug, and into town to Møs. The first of the month, but the new subscription to the Volkskrant doesn't seem to have started yet. AD with lots of reporting on the migrant situation at the Spanish enclave of Ceuta. The political upheaval all over Europe in response to this crisis is one of the more sordid aspects. Just like the general discussion in this country of asylum and migration questions, it seems mostly detached from the wider realities. What may move people to risk their lives (67 confirmed dead so far) by wading into the ocean and swimming fully clothed from a relatively peaceful country such as Morocco to neighboring Spanish territory--that question rarely gets asked. It remains far too easy to mobilize people behind the idea that none of the problems that cause people to flee are of any concern to us. Just keep 'em out. It is not that we should welcome all comers, not at all. However, by pretending that in a globalized world we can just pick and choose which aspects of interconnectedness and interdependence to accept (avocados year-round; must-make trips to the far corners of the earth; cheap foreign labor to perform unpleasant tasks; the ability to order cheap stuff from China; the opportunity to ship our waste abroad), and act as if the rest might as well not exist--in that posture, we're part of the problem--and causing a significant part of it. But what politician is going to campaign on that message. In the thirty or so minutes on the bench at Møs, many fewer people cycled by than on a regular Saturday. Two or three cars ignored the do-not-enter sign.

July 30, 2026

Thursday. Left by 10:30. Blacksmith. Warm, no longer hot, moderate winds out of the northwest, thin white clouds of various shapes, gradually getting overcast. Biltse Rading. A technician on a ladder working on a small solar panel. His van parked by the side of the bike path--and why not let that diesel engine run while you're doing your job, up there on the ladder? Rapid bike route out of Bilthoven to Den Dolder and the railroad tracks. In Amersfoort, up the Abraham Kuyperlaan, and further up by way of the Emmalaan. Down Utrechtseweg, then left at the bottom, the bike trail toward the train station. Tunnel underneath the tracks and Soesterweg. A detour to the Noorderwierweg: Crocusstraat and Begoniastraat. "Soesterkwartier" in the old, unflattering sense. The land on both sides of the A.P. Hilhorstweg dry. Also a beautiful sunflower border around a patch of corn. The Eng very dry too, then semi-lost on the way to Wieksloterweg. Boerenstreek the escape route. Maartensdijk, Groenekan, Overvecht, and Møs. Still just the AD, but it had an interview with a Russian economist in exile, emphasizing the passivity of the Russian population, and warning that the country's economy is not at the point of collapse. If the president wanted to continue the war for another five years, he could, according to this observer. His advice to the West is to lure Russia's oligarchs and their money away from the Kremlin, the implication probably being that this will deprive the regime of crucial means to keep the war, and the war economy, going. It is, indeed, crucial to get Russian elites to act independently from the Kremlin and in ways that counter the war effort. The likely way for the war to end is without this Russian president having a big say. This economist too sees him as increasingly irrational, suggesting that efforts to get him around the table with his Ukrainian colleague in order to work something out (other than Ukraine's unconditional surrender) are pointless. A combination of Ukraine's war efforts and diplomacy by outsiders directed at Russian elites standing to gain from peace--such a combination could check-mate the Russian president, or make him largely irrelevant in an eventual negotiated end to the war. And indeed, we could be there as early as next week, and we might not get there for another five years.

July 29, 2026

Wednesday. Nederhorst den Berg. Left a little after eleven after a lake swim. Nikor. The lake was very calm, with some green algae lapping against the shore. Further in, the water quickly got clear and there was just one motor boat, which kept its distance. Already warm in the morning, with a near-cloudless sky, and light, later moderate, winds out of the southwest. The smell of new-mowed hay on the Spiegelweg. Vecht to Muiden. People out on racing bikes, few of them going very fast. The bright colors alongside the IJburg cyling highway almost completely gone now. In its place, multiple shades of yellow, brown, and green. Coffee and newspaper at Javaplein. Ukraine now receiving threats from Iran because of an attack on an Iranian ship in the Caspian Sea. It is not clear what Tehran would do if this continues; stopping their support for Russia is probably low on the list, although one would think that the Islamist regime currently has enough problems also to start lobbing missiles at Ukraine. Another article discussing the deteriorating situation in Crimea, due to Ukrainian attacks on supply routes, power plants, military bases. The attacks are designed to relieve Ukraine's southern front, but also, presumably, to compel the Russian president--not to escalate, but to be open to a diplomatic end to the war. There are no signs Moscow is thinking along those lines, but perhaps outside powers, in combination with certain members of Russia's elites, could help things along. The Americans would have to play their part, and perhaps it is a good thing--another story in the same paper--that a notorious American "influencer" with access to and, apparently, influence with the president, has recently changed her views on the Ukraine war 180 degrees and now fully supports Kyiv. Theoretically, the U.S. could still have a more significant and beneficial impact on the war itself by making it easier for Kyiv to obtain both defensive and offensive weapons. It could also make clear to Russian leaders, and those with access to them, that the terms for a more productive and peaceful relationship with the U.S. include an end to the current war and meaningful guarantees for Ukraine's independence. If that were to be Washington's policy, Europe would surely support it and play its part. Nobody knows how close we are to the point where this kind of thinking might even get a hearing in the Kremlin. It does seem clear that Ukraine's current drone offensive can get us closer. On to the Bushuis. The city not swarming with tourists, it seemed, except, as always, at the Bushuissluis. Back in warm conditions through Muiden, Zuidpolderweg, Keverdijk, and Hinderdam. The Keverdijksepolder is still green, as is the Heintjesrak en Broekerpolder, but on the whole, we're drying up fast. Ice cream at the square in town. Dead, with a few people on the edges in the shadows.