July 15, 2026

 Wednesday. Left around 10:15. Blacksmith. Small ring again, stuck to the saddle, creeping up the inclines. But it is riding, it is being outside. Warm and sunny, moderate winds out of the east. Busy on the Singel; the garbage trucks stink in this weather. Koningsweg to Wayen and Langeweg. There, a hare on the road who kept running ahead and eventually took off into the field to the right. Grasses and hedges beginning to look dry. We are in a drought. Sluispad to Beatrixsluizen, then Schipperspad. Just a handful of barges at the quays, probably because all skippers have lots of work due to low water levels in the rivers preventing anyone from carrying a full load. On the ARK still a few barges loaded down. Gele brug back into town and Møs, where they seem to have cancelled their Volkskrant subscription. AD instead--still undisturbed by 11:30. Two nuclear-armed powers engaged in warfare. Yesterday, the American president announced tolling charges for passage through a waterway he does not control; today he pulled back and instead announced major air strikes on Iranian infrastructure for next week. By the weekend, those will likely be postponed, and we'll hear about something else. The U.S. presumably is a key player in a diplomatic way out of Russia's war on Ukraine. That country's counteroffensive around Crimea by all accounts is taking a serious toll, certainly on Moscow's ability to supply its southern front in Ukraine, perhaps also on its overall hold on the peninsula. The best Ukraine can hope to achieve by these and other kinds of hits on Russia's ability to wage war is cease-fire talks, followed by a peace process. More likely today, unfortunately, until regime change in Moscow, is Russian escalation from the air, targeting civilian infrastructure. If there were to be regime-change, a cease-fire might be achievable given that the reason to remove the current leader would be his unwillingness to change course in his catastrophic war. For a longer-term outcome giving Ukraine a chance at survival as an independent nation, it would be hard to put any stock in what Washington may or may not be able to contribute--at least until there is regime change there too. Good luck to all of us, first and foremost Ukraine, getting through the next two-and-a-half years. In the time it took to get through the paper, just two cars violated the do-not-enter restriction at the Kievitstraat at Møs.

July 11, 2026

 Saturday. Left a little before ten, cautiously. Blacksmith. Cool for a summer day, but very pleasant. Mostly cloudy, gradually getting more sunny. Light winds out of the northeast. Seated and small ring--no getting out of the saddle. Overvecht and Blauwkapel to Ruygenhoek. Swimmers in the nature pool, just 5.5 km from home. Kooijdijk to Westbroek and toward Tienhoven. Saturday morning in a vacation month. Middenweg to Bethuneweg; Herenweg to Oud Zuilen and Mos. In the paper ongoing speculation about possible desperate moves by the Russian president, particularly against one of the Baltic states. This in addition to stories from Russia about elites questioning the course of the country. And Ukraine, aside from being hit itself daily, keeps hitting targets inside the country. There are no good options for the Kremlin, and who is going to say what or how the president thinks, and on the basis of what information. But all his chips are on this cruel, costly war where Europe is Ukraine's main supporter, and the current administration in Washington a perpetual wild card. That last aspect also means it can't be predicted if the U.S. will be willing to act in case of a Russian provocation in the Baltics. It would be up to the Europeans, and they may fall short, in which case Ukraine's resistance could be undermined also. And it could all happen next week. 

July 7, 2026

 Tuesday. Left around 1:30. Blacksmith. Summer. White clouds, but mostly sunny. Breezy from the northwest. Vecht westside to Op Buuren and Zuilensebrug, Maarssenbroek, and around the Haarrijnse plas. Schoolkids on the way home, but manageable. Around Haarzuilens to natuurpad leading to Laag Nieuwkoop. Wildflowers and colored nettles and weeds still around, but not as exuberant as a couple of weeks ago. Vacation cyclists, but not bad at all on the Hollandse Kade. There, the reeds and bushes moving majestically in the wind. Houtdijkerpad to Kromme Rijn and Harmelen. The special bike route prominently running through town now. De Meern toward the city. Taken down hard by a fat bike in the turn leading to De Meern brug. As if there was no right-of-way. But there is no right-of-way, there's only maintaining sufficient margin-for-error at all times--your error, or someone else's. Banged up, but able to continue home.

July 5, 2026

 Sunday. Left a little after ten. Blacksmith. Not cool, not warm. Overcast with a variety of gray clouds, here and there a small gap for the sun. Along the way, once or twice a few small raindrops. Breezy out of the west. Bilthoven to Den Dolder and the trail alongside the train tracks to Amersfoort. The usual Sunday morning cycling traffic, along with runners and walkers. No outlet from the Bremstraat, although the map suggests there is. Amersfoortse berg to the Belgian Monument, then toward Leusden-Zuid. Left at De Mof, to and through Scherpenzeel (quiet). A young couple pushing a stroller, with the man in a t-shirt and the women in a red dress, wearing short, white, high-heeled boots. There were other people along the way appartently going home from church. Toward and over the hill (light traffic), right at the bottom in Amerongen. Right again in Leersum toward Ginkelduin. Haarweg to Scherpenzeelseweg and back toward Leersum. There a right, then Hoogstraat and Ruiterberg. Gooijerdijk toward Driebergen, then Sterkenburg, Beverweerd, and the tunnel at Werkhoven. Into the wind down the Achterdijk and past Vechten. Into town by way of Kampong and Kromme Rijn. In the news another Ukrainian hit on Russian oil infrastructure at St Petersburg. And openly expressed concerns by Scandinavians: Putin may be getting desperate and choose to double down, also in the Baltic. The options for NATO would not be good: hitting back, if Washington could be persuaded not to stand in the way, brings the risk of further escalation with a nuclear power. Still, a proportional response there would have to be, otherwise Moscow will continue to believe Europe is all talk (at opportune and inopportune times) and no action. Exactly what the response would be, and where, of course would depend on the nature of the Russian escalation. It would also have to be sold to the public in the West, something not to be taken lightly, but not a reason not to do it. As if the situation wasn't grim enough, it's getting grimmer by the week.

July 3, 2026

Friday. The envisioned talk did not happen, but this in a nutshell is what I would have told the student participants in this UN-oriented workshop: 

Talking about a "rules-based order," I would have started with a reference to something Mahatma Gandhi probably never said, when asked (or not) about Western Civilization: "It would be a good idea." We hardly have one today, maybe never really did, and yet as a globalized world, we can't really live without a common way to face up to shared challenges. The problem is political. Under the right circumstances (most of the second half of the twentieth century), the "international community" (if something like that ever really existed) can make good progress in building a rules-based order. However, as the history of the past two centuries shows, the very particular rule first put in writing by Thucydides keeps asserting itself: "the strong do what they have the power to do and the weak accept what they have to accept." The conclusion, especially for the participants in your program, is that one should be very clear-eyed about the temptation for great powers to make their own rules, and, given that, think and work hard with all the others (those states, groups, and individuals for whom a credible international rule book is of crucial importance) on maintaining and augmenting laws, treaties, institutions created since 1945, and to convince great powers (those subject to the temptation of "might makes right") that in the long term, a credible rules-based international order is in their interest too. The globalizing world prior to 1914 did not have a common way to face up to shared challenges, and there came a big, global war; the world of the 1920s and 1930s had an inadequate international rule book, and an even bigger war came; the world of the Cold War, and beyond, did much better, until the beginning of the twenty-first century. We don't have a new world war yet, and nothing is inevitable until it happens. But (a historian's warning): while history does not repeat itself, it does often rhyme.  

July 1, 2026

 Wednesday. Left twenty to ten for De Biltse Hoek. Blacksmith. Mild, light winds out of the southwest. Sunny. Detour from the Berenkuil. Detour around Zeist, past Huis ter Heide, then toward Woudenberg. Groups of school kids with their teachers on end-of-year excursions. Right onto Griftdijk. Rumelaarseweg toward Emminkhuizen. A detour, so left Biesbosserweg into Renswoude. Scherpenzeel next, back onto country roads at the Voskuilerweg. Voskuilerdijk to De Mof, then Den Treek. Toward and eventually up Trekerweg. Toward and around Zeist to Bunsinglaan. Through Bunnik, then Koningsweg back into the city. At work on a talk on the "rules-based order." As Gandhi probably never said when asked, or not, about Western Civilization: it would be a good idea. 

June 28, 2026

Sunday. Left around 9:45. Blacksmith. Still warm, in spite of the overnight storms. Mostly sunny, light winds out of the southwest. Blauwkapel to Groenedijk and Korssesteeg. Corn shooting up now, and the water lilies have opened up. At Egelshoek and elsewhere under the trees, lots of torn-off leaves and little branches, and damp pavement. Kerkelanden to 's-Graveland and Brambergen. Back by way of Emmaweg, 's-Gravelandsevaartweg, and Nieuw Loosdrechtsedijk. Less boater traffic than expected, and in Polder Bethune it was even quieter. Back into town along Zandpad. People perhaps still hiding indoors from the heat. In the news, the Russian president's acknowledgement that the country now faces fuel shortages due to Ukrainian drone strikes. Kyiv's campaign is envisioned to last another month or so, so at the current pace, things could get much more tight. A big question is whether, if that indeed happens, the Kremlin will become desperate and choose escalation, or whether somehow it can be prevailed upon to adjust its story of what this war is about, what Russia has accomplished, and what could furthermore be accomplished at the negotiating table. Apparently, the Russian leader is also looking forward to U.S. negotiators (the terribly swift and effective, entirely disinterested businessmen) returning to Moscow after peace with Iran has been solidified. As a view into the president's mind, that's a potentially encouraging sign; as a concrete path out of the current war, it's so uncertain as to be almost meaningless.