July 1, 2026

 Wednesday. Left twenty to ten for De Biltse Hoek. Blacksmith. Mild, light winds out of the southwest. Sunny. Detour from the Berenkuil. Detour around Zeist, past Huis ter Heide, then toward Woudenberg. Groups of school kids with their teachers on end-of-year excursions. Right onto Griftdijk. Rumelaarseweg toward Emminkhuizen. A detour, so left Biesbosserweg into Renswoude. Scherpenzeel next, back onto country roads at the Voskuilerweg. Voskuilerdijk to De Mof, then Den Treek. Toward and eventually up Trekerweg. Toward and around Zeist to Bunsinglaan. Through Bunnik, then Koningsweg back into the city. At work on a talk on the "rules-based order." As Gandhi probably never said when asked, or not, about Western Civilization: it would be a good idea. 

June 28, 2026

Sunday. Left around 9:45. Blacksmith. Still warm, in spite of the overnight storms. Mostly sunny, light winds out of the southwest. Blauwkapel to Groenedijk and Korssesteeg. Corn shooting up now, and the water lilies have opened up. At Egelshoek and elsewhere under the trees, lots of torn-off leaves and little branches, and damp pavement. Kerkelanden to 's-Graveland and Brambergen. Back by way of Emmaweg, 's-Gravelandsevaartweg, and Nieuw Loosdrechtsedijk. Less boater traffic than expected, and in Polder Bethune it was even quieter. Back into town along Zandpad. People perhaps still hiding indoors from the heat. In the news, the Russian president's acknowledgement that the country now faces fuel shortages due to Ukrainian drone strikes. Kyiv's campaign is envisioned to last another month or so, so at the current pace, things could get much more tight. A big question is whether, if that indeed happens, the Kremlin will become desperate and choose escalation, or whether somehow it can be prevailed upon to adjust its story of what this war is about, what Russia has accomplished, and what could furthermore be accomplished at the negotiating table. Apparently, the Russian leader is also looking forward to U.S. negotiators (the terribly swift and effective, entirely disinterested businessmen) returning to Moscow after peace with Iran has been solidified. As a view into the president's mind, that's a potentially encouraging sign; as a concrete path out of the current war, it's so uncertain as to be almost meaningless.

June 26, 2026

Friday. Nederhorst den Berg. Nikor. Left twenty to eleven, after a lake swim. A very warm day, so people, and their dogs, already gathering at the beach. The lake still fairly quiet, although one stinking pleasure boat passed by. Light winds out of the southeast, which made a difference on the way back. The old commute, alongside the Vecht to Muiden. The Spiegelplas lock let just one pleasure boat onto the river; in Muiden, the barriers were up, the bridge passable. In between, and all the way to the city it was unusually quiet out. Javaplein with the paper. A preview of the upcoming NATO summit in Turkey and how there may be opportunities to show some unity, the U.S. included, and thereby maintain some credibility for the alliance. "Some" would be the key term here, because the current administration in Washington has shown time and again it's unserious about these matters, and thus, in the final analysis, unreliable. At the same time, there are things Washington still agrees to do with and in Europe. Deterrence relies not just on weapons, military ability, political resilience, and the like, but also on just enough uncertainty about one's willingness to follow through on warnings about the importance of certain red lines. Perhaps there's still enough uncertainty about what Washington will do in the face of a provocation or worse. Perhaps. Unfortunately, there may not be enough doubt (in Moscow) about European willingness and ability to confront aggression. Fortunately, Ukraine in the meantime is hitting Russia, especially Crimea so hard that on the peninsula a state of emergency has been declared. There will be a Russian response, of course, so calling it good news isn't quite right. But this current Ukrainian operation seems the most promising way to bring about some change in the Russian position.

June 24, 2026

 Wednesday. Left a little before 9:45. Blacksmith. Warm already, without a cloud in the sky, and light winds out of the east. Through the Berenkuil toward De Bilt and Bunnik. Then Odijk to Rijsenburgselaan. Outside of Odijk a pair of storks on a nest, monitored by a birder. From the bike, no chicks visible. Right turn after the church in Driebergen, toward Doorn. Across the Hoogstraat (quiet) then Maarnsegrindweg and Quatre Bras. Up Zeisterweg toward another detour in Zeist, leading to the Utrechtseweg by way of the Dreef. Utrechtseweg had a closure too, so back to the Berenkuil on the south side. Paper at Møs with a report on Germany pulling out of a frigate project at a Dutch shipbuilder (collaborating with German partners). It's the same builder having trouble (major delays, major cost overruns) on a project with the Belgian government. This comes on top of the recent news of the failure of the French-German effort to develop a new, European fighter plane (presumably as an alternative to buying American). And so where the rubber of Europe's aspirations hits the road of genuine and timely results, the continent seems stuck in neutral. It should still get a seat at the table if and when talks to end the war (not on the horizon) begin, but for its own credibility it would be good if, at least at the national level, some muscle could be built. Otherwise, surely the Russian president, but maybe Washington too, will continue to ask: "how many divisions does Costa have?"

June 22, 2026

 Monday. Nederhorst den Berg. Left a little before 11:30 after a lake swim (and an old acquaintance). Breezy out of the northeast; warm, not hot. Sunny, with some light, disorganized white cloud patterns. The lake had been mostly empty, as was the beach; the water clean, but not as clear as it can be. The old doctor's residence and practice is being renovated and, it appears, expanded a little. Spiegelweg and Vecht to Loodijk and the east side of the river. Muiden still quiet, then along the dike where there used to be hardly anything, but not anymore. It's another consequence of the expanding city: the cycling infrastructure needs to keep pace, every time at the expense of a little more green space. IJburg was spectacular, with white, pink, red, green, yellow, and purple wildflowers and weeds on both sides of the asphalt. Coffee and the news at Javaplein. A story on how Ukrainian attacks make it less and less attractive for Russians to vacation in Crimea, but also a grim report on those who remain in the Donbas city of Kramatorsk, in the face of Russian attacks. Elsewhere, a story on the Russian economy, not close to collapse. China is a major partner, and enough funds come in from the sale of oil, gas, and other commodities to keep things going.  The Russian economy has become a war economy, which may make it harder to end the war, since peace would likely force major and difficult changes, where things currently have taken on a kind of normalcy. It could actually be worse, according to some in the Baltics, because instead of reforming itself, the Russian war economy might just go looking for another conflict, for example against NATO in the Baltics. Hard to imagine, perhaps, but it's important to try to think, and think through, the unthinkable in these matters. For the war to end, we still need some kind of major shift in the Russian position. From their strategy it is clear that the Ukrainians understand that, aside from trying to stay one or two steps ahead of the Russians on the battlefield, hitting key sites of Russia's war economy is the best way to undermine the Kremlin's ability, not only to wage the war, but also to run the country. Western sanctions haven't brought about an economic emergency in Russia, and they probably can't. The most likely, though not necessarily promising, way to change Moscow's calculus is for Ukraine to keep hitting Russia's industrial sites (while improving its defenses against Russia's terror attacks). Kyiv's European friends should focus their efforts there, not on premature diplomatic initiatives toward the Kremlin. From Javaplein to the Bushuis, and from there back to IJburg and Muiden. Then toward Hakkelaarsbrug, the Keverdijk, and the old village. There, in spite of ongoing new construction, not too much ever seems to change.

June 20, 2026

Saturday. Left a little before nine. Blacksmith. Warm, but still some moisture in the air from last night's storms. Light, variable winds, later blowing moderately from the west. Lots of small branches with leaves on the ground everywhere. Berenkuil to De Bilt and on toward Soesterberg. Under the trees, the pavement was still damp, sometimes wet. Zeisterspoor to Dodeweg, Heiligenbergerweg, and around Leusden. Engweg a new road, but a bit too rough, with long-neglected brick sections--old-style narrow bricks and even a short section of little square bricks. Then Stoutenburgerlaan to Hoevelaken, Middelaarseweg toward Terschuur, then back across the freeway. Coffee at Brons. Serve yourself in the mudroom. Back through Achterveld, toward Leusden, Kanaalweg, de Mof, and Treek. A lot of walkers, perhaps practicing for the Four Days Marches. In the woods, the roads still damp or wet. Around Zeist and back to De Bilt and home. In the news Ukrainian general-turned-ambassador Valerii Zaluzhiny warning that the war is far from over. It's a stalemate, and Russia still thinks it can outlast Ukraine through a combination of relentless attacks at the Ukrainian front lines (regardless of the cost) and terror attacks using ballistic missiles, against which, Zaluzhiny notes, it is impossible to defend oneself. Russia simply has too many of them. Also in the news, EU Council president Costa defends his recent approach to the Kremlin, and one wonders why he felt the need. In any case, against the background of Zaluzhiny's comments, these soundings look even more premature. Which may have been the ambassador's goal: focus European minds on the unceasingly urgent need to support Ukraine militarily and in other ways. The time for diplomacy isn't here yet; Europeans should curb their counterproductive eagerness to talk to the Kremlin. Right now, there's nothing to discuss.

June 18, 2026

Thursday. Left a little after ten. Blacksmith. Warm already, with some unorganized white clouds in various shapes. Light to moderate winds out of the south. Koningsweg to Marsdijk (a large Mercedes driving as if it was the highway), then Achterdijk with its tightly-controlled grasslands. Werkhoven and Hollendewagenweg, then toward Dwarsdijk. Just before it, an approaching farm vehicle so big it had no place to go but all of the available asphalt. Other than these two interactions it was a fairly quiet weekday morning. Kapelleweg to 't Goybrug and the Lekdijk. The river peaceful, as were the farms. Just a handful of users at the park near Tull en 't Waal. Tailwind on the Sluispad to Plofsluis, then toward Jutphaas en the Jutphasebrug. The paper at Møs with mixed news about the war. On the one hand, Ukrainian forces have virtually been pushed out of the town of Kostyantynivka (some 70,000 people before the war, virtually nobody left), on the other, a long article explaining how Ukraine's evolving drone capabilities wreak havoc on the access roads to Crimea, and how the same capabilities are hitting Russian units and storage sites well behind the front lines. The same paper also reported on the G-7 pledge of unwavering support for Ukraine's freedom, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. That group includes the American president, so who knows. At any rate, it would be hard today to argue that Ukraine holds no cards. In that light, the news that the EU Council president has confidentially reached out to Moscow to open a channel of communication is strange, to say the least. For the war to end in an even remotely just way, it would have to be Russia reaching out to Brussels, because that would signal distress and perhaps a willingness to give up some of the war aims. For Brussels to reach out to Moscow now seems, except premature, to be a sign of EU anxiety about perhaps being left out of any talks once and if they begin. But it's exactly the wrong signal to send the Kremlin. As today's spectacular drone strikes near Moscow suggest, we may be approaching the point where Russia isn't just not winning, but is actually the losing side, and this for all to see. We need to get a little closer to that point; we need to get to the point where it is clear that Moscow is looking for a way out of its war of aggression. Keep up the pressure, and let them come to us.