July 30, 2026

Thursday. Left by 10:30. Blacksmith. Warm, no longer hot, moderate winds out of the northwest, thin white clouds of various shapes, gradually getting overcast. Biltse Rading. A technician on a ladder working on a small solar panel. His van parked by the side of the bike path--and why not let that diesel engine run while you're doing your job, up there on the ladder? Rapid bike route out of Bilthoven to Den Dolder and the railroad tracks. In Amersfoort, up the Abraham Kuyperlaan, and further up by way of the Emmalaan. Down Utrechtseweg, then left at the bottom, the bike trail toward the train station. Tunnel underneath the tracks and Soesterweg. A detour to the Noorderwierweg: Crocusstraat and Begoniastraat. "Soesterkwartier" in the old, unflattering sense. The land on both sides of the A.P. Hilhorstweg dry. Also a beautiful sunflower border around a patch of corn. The Eng very dry too, then semi-lost on the way to Wieksloterweg. Boerenstreek the escape route. Maartensdijk, Groenekan, Overvecht, and Møs. Still just the AD, but it had an interview with a Russian economist in exile, emphasizing the passivity of the Russian population, and warning that the country's economy is not at the point of collapse. If the president wanted to continue the war for another five years, he could, according to this observer. His advice to the West is to lure Russia's oligarchs and their money away from the Kremlin, the implication probably being that this will deprive the regime of crucial means to keep the war, and the war economy, going. It is, indeed, crucial to get Russian elites to act independently from the Kremlin and in ways that counter the war effort. The likely way for the war to end is without this Russian president having a big say. This economist too sees him as increasingly irrational, suggesting that efforts to get him around the table with his Ukrainian colleague in order to work something out (other than Ukraine's unconditional surrender) are pointless. A combination of Ukraine's war efforts and diplomacy by outsiders directed at Russian elites standing to gain from peace--such a combination could check-mate the Russian president, or make him largely irrelevant in an eventual negotiated end to the war. And indeed, we could be there as early as next week, and we might not get there for another five years.

July 29, 2026

Wednesday. Nederhorst den Berg. Left a little after eleven after a lake swim. Nikor. The lake was very calm, with some green algae lapping against the shore. Further in, the water quickly got clear and there was just one motor boat, which kept its distance. Already warm in the morning, with a near-cloudless sky, and light, later moderate, winds out of the southwest. The smell of new-mowed hay on the Spiegelweg. Vecht to Muiden. People out on racing bikes, few of them going very fast. The bright colors alongside the IJburg cyling highway almost completely gone now. In its place, multiple shades of yellow, brown, and green. Coffee and newspaper at Javaplein. Ukraine now receiving threats from Iran because of an attack on an Iranian ship in the Caspian Sea. It is not clear what Tehran would do if this continues; stopping their support for Russia is probably low on the list, although one would think that the Islamist regime currently has enough problems also to start lobbing missiles at Ukraine. Another article discussing the deteriorating situation in Crimea, due to Ukrainian attacks on supply routes, power plants, military bases. The attacks are designed to relieve Ukraine's southern front, but also, presumably, to compel the Russian president--not to escalate, but to be open to a diplomatic end to the war. There are no signs Moscow is thinking along those lines, but perhaps outside powers, in combination with certain members of Russia's elites, could help things along. The Americans would have to play their part, and perhaps it is a good thing--another story in the same paper--that a notorious American "influencer" with access to and, apparently, influence with the president, has recently changed her views on the Ukraine war 180 degrees and now fully supports Kyiv. Theoretically, the U.S. could still have a more significant and beneficial impact on the war itself by making it easier for Kyiv to obtain both defensive and offensive weapons. It could also make clear to Russian leaders, and those with access to them, that the terms for a more productive and peaceful relationship with the U.S. include an end to the current war and meaningful guarantees for Ukraine's independence. If that were to be Washington's policy, Europe would surely support it and play its part. Nobody knows how close we are to the point where this kind of thinking might even get a hearing in the Kremlin. It does seem clear that Ukraine's current drone offensive can get us closer. On to the Bushuis. The city not swarming with tourists, it seemed, except, as always, at the Bushuissluis. Back in warm conditions through Muiden, Zuidpolderweg, Keverdijk, and Hinderdam. The Keverdijksepolder is still green, as is the Heintjesrak en Broekerpolder, but on the whole, we're drying up fast. Ice cream at the square in town. Dead, with a few people on the edges in the shadows.

July 26, 2026

Sunday. Left a little after ten. Blacksmith. Overcast, with showers on the way. Not warm, not cool. Breezy out of the southwest. Gele brug to Hermelijnvlinderpad. The first few raindrops there. Alendorp to Rivierpad. Walkers, runners, some cyclists. A few yellow flowers in what seems to be a zucchini patch alongside the Rivierpad. Breudijk toward Gerverscop. Knee doing ok, but entire body still in light recovery mode. The corn in the field at the beginning of Gerverscop has disappeared, and another crop (maybe just grass) is on its way. No motorized traffic through Gerverscop, except for the huge tractor-hay trailer combination at the very end, hogging almost the entire road through the turn. Light rain from the Rodendijk all the way home. The pavement eventually just plain wet. It wasn't a lot of water, but it is very welcome nonetheless. At the Vechtbrug in Breukelen, a long line of retiree vacation cyclists making the turn into town, uttering greetings in Spanish. In the short left-right turn on Gunterstein, flattened, wet manure causing a skid, but nothing worse. The quiet at the Strook, Veenkade, Herenweg, and the rest of the way home suggesting that the rain had begun to keep people inside. In the news, word that, for the time being, the American president is holding off on more intensified air strikes on Iranian civilian infrastructure. That's until the next round of threats, possibly some more attacks, followed by yet another shift. And so on, and so forth. Washington's cluelessness and aggression should not lead to any kind of admiration for the fanatical, murderous regime in Tehran and its ability to withstand U.S. attacks. We have to see each regime for what it is and hope that before things really get out of hand, enough influential outside powers that are directly or indirectly affected by this war put pressure on Washington and Tehran to find a way out. They certainly seem incapable of getting there on their own. Unfortunately, before there's any chance of that happening, the Israeli prime-minister will visit Washington this week. The whole military campaign was his idea, and even though it has been a disaster, the man will likely argue for the U.S. and Israel to double down. Using excessive military force is not just his favorite option, it has long been his only option. It is anybody's guess how the American president will respond--and if he responds in one way, he could change his mind again soon after that. Thus, given the people in charge on all sides in this conflict (put there, in the case of Washington and Jerusalem, by voters in a democratic process), it is unlikely that we will see a real change for the better any time soon, maybe not for a couple of years. Meanwhile, the opportunities for an even greater disaster remain plentiful.

July 25, 2026

 Saturday. Left at 9:51. Nikor. Sunny, warm--not hot. Moderate winds out of the south/southwest. Clear skies, just some white brush strokes on the horizon. Koningsweg to Vechten and Achterdijk. There, and alongside the Hollendewagenweg thriving wildflower borders. The rest of the fields and of nature pretty dry. People out, but not too many. Getting out of the saddle still a bit sensitive, but parts in the big ring without issues. Dwarsdijk and Kapellenweg (apples or pears on the trees). Lek fairly peaceful, no barges. The areas between the breakwaters beginning to fall dry. Beatrixsluis, Plofsluis, Jutphaase brug, and Merwedekanaal back into town and Møs. The drought intensifies, but this time there were many barges tied to shore along the Sluispad. Perhaps that by now for many of them more and more waterways, such as the Lek, have become too shallow to navigate profitably. In the paper (AD, but de Volkskrant will return, they said) a report on how the Russian government is forcing companies and universities (well east of Moscow) to supply a certain number of recruits for the military every month. This among other forced recruitment tactics. Not much those poor people can do against the police state, but the police state is being hit where it hurts on a regular basis now. Unfortunately, Brussels has allowed Greece to support Ukraine rhetorically while protecting the bottom line of one of its influential shipping tycoons. To say that country, and several other EU members, have a credibility problem would be an understatement. 

July 22, 2026

Wednesday. Left as the church bells in Nederhorst den Berg struck eleven. Nikor, after a quick swin in the lake. Showers, but brief, and it wasn't cold. So-called bad weather eliminates most people from the beach and the lake itself. Eendracht riders passing on the way out of town. The skies were many shades of gray, and after Muiden there was a brief shower. Breezy out of the northwest, but the knee did ok. Getting out of the saddle sensitive, but possible. Boats in the locks at Spiegelplas and Muiden, but no hold-up. A new bridge leading into Weesp; the old one had been there since at least the 1970s and was nicer to look at. Grasses, weeds, and wildflowers tall on IJburg, though less colorful than a month ago. The new trail between Muiden and Overdiemen is efficient, but it's no fun no longer to be able to look out over the water. Javaplein with the newspaper. An editorial critical of the unwillingness of many EU member states to be as tough and consistent in their sanctions policy toward Russia as they could be. As a group, the EU talks firmly, but the sanctions stick is rather flexible, and quite a few countries look for exceptions for their own companies and interests. If sanctions, Europe's favorite tool, are to be successful, they'll impose hardship, not just on the recipient, but also those imposing them. Given public opinion in many EU countries and the Union's great diversity in membership, the current performance may be the best one possible. At least Brussels has begun to send to Ukraine parts of the 90 billion Euro support package long held up by Hungary. Also in the news how the Ukrainian president has now also fired his top general, the main rival of the former defense minister, sacked last week. The new top general is an ally of the previous defense minister, and the new defense minister seems on board too with his predecessor's emphasis on new technologies over traditional war-fighting under a rigid, top-down command structure. We may, or may not, learn whether the two firings, and their timing, was part of a preconceived plan by the president, or whether the old general's dismissal became inevitable after many people became angry and protested in the past week. (Either one signals good things about the way Ukraine is being led). In any case, if the president also succeeds in bringing the former defense minister back into the government in a major position, the original stand-off between the old general and the young minister may have moved the country forward. Ukraine needs all the help it can get from its friends, but in the end will have to force Russia to give up all by itself. On to the Bushuis through a moderately busy city. Back by way of Zuidpolderweg and Keverdijk. Peak vacation time, and the locals vacationing elsewhere outweigh the strangers being here.  

July 15, 2026

 Wednesday. Left around 10:15. Blacksmith. Small ring again, stuck to the saddle, creeping up the inclines. But it is riding, it is being outside. Warm and sunny, moderate winds out of the east. Busy on the Singel; the garbage trucks stink in this weather. Koningsweg to Wayen and Langeweg. There, a hare on the road who kept running ahead and eventually took off into the field to the right. Grasses and hedges beginning to look dry. We are in a drought. Sluispad to Beatrixsluizen, then Schipperspad. Just a handful of barges at the quays, probably because all skippers have lots of work due to low water levels in the rivers preventing anyone from carrying a full load. On the ARK still a few barges loaded down. Gele brug back into town and Møs, where they seem to have cancelled their Volkskrant subscription. AD instead--still undisturbed by 11:30. Two nuclear-armed powers engaged in warfare. Yesterday, the American president announced tolling charges for passage through a waterway he does not control; today he pulled back and instead announced major air strikes on Iranian infrastructure for next week. By the weekend, those will likely be postponed, and we'll hear about something else. The U.S. presumably is a key player in a diplomatic way out of Russia's war on Ukraine. That country's counteroffensive around Crimea by all accounts is taking a serious toll, certainly on Moscow's ability to supply its southern front in Ukraine, perhaps also on its overall hold on the peninsula. The best Ukraine can hope to achieve by these and other kinds of hits on Russia's ability to wage war is cease-fire talks, followed by a peace process. More likely today, unfortunately, until regime change in Moscow, is Russian escalation from the air, targeting civilian infrastructure. If there were to be regime-change, a cease-fire might be achievable given that the reason to remove the current leader would be his unwillingness to change course in his catastrophic war. For a longer-term outcome giving Ukraine a chance at survival as an independent nation, it would be hard to put any stock in what Washington may or may not be able to contribute--at least until there is regime change there too. Good luck to all of us, first and foremost Ukraine, getting through the next two-and-a-half years. In the time it took to get through the paper, just two cars violated the do-not-enter restriction at the Kievitstraat at Møs.

July 11, 2026

 Saturday. Left a little before ten, cautiously. Blacksmith. Cool for a summer day, but very pleasant. Mostly cloudy, gradually getting more sunny. Light winds out of the northeast. Seated and small ring--no getting out of the saddle. Overvecht and Blauwkapel to Ruygenhoek. Swimmers in the nature pool, just 5.5 km from home. Kooijdijk to Westbroek and toward Tienhoven. Saturday morning in a vacation month. Middenweg to Bethuneweg; Herenweg to Oud Zuilen and Mos. In the paper ongoing speculation about possible desperate moves by the Russian president, particularly against one of the Baltic states. This in addition to stories from Russia about elites questioning the course of the country. And Ukraine, aside from being hit itself daily, keeps hitting targets inside the country. There are no good options for the Kremlin, and who is going to say what or how the president thinks, and on the basis of what information. But all his chips are on this cruel, costly war where Europe is Ukraine's main supporter, and the current administration in Washington a perpetual wild card. That last aspect also means it can't be predicted if the U.S. will be willing to act in case of a Russian provocation in the Baltics. It would be up to the Europeans, and they may fall short, in which case Ukraine's resistance could be undermined also. And it could all happen next week.