August 19, 2026

Thursday (and KU arrival day, 1988). Left at 9:51. Nikor, because a chance of a shower. Mostly cloudy, many different, still mostly white clouds everywhere, also room for the sun. Moderate winds out of the west. Damp pavement here and there, but otherwise dry. Gele brug to 't Zand and Alendorp, Rivierpad. Suburbs still looking dry, in spite of the recent showers. Breudijk to Gerverscop, where it was green and quiet. Rodendijk and Wagendijk. The views. Alongside the latter also a newly erupted stretch of poppies and other wildflowers. Schutterskade, then left toward Zuideinde. There, Eendracht sighting (Onno). The views north from the Groote Heicop; cows down below in the land behind the canal. Breukelen and Gunterstein, then Scheendijk and Strook. All fairly quiet as more gray clouds appeared in the west. Bethuneweg, Herenweg, Oud Zuilen, and Møs. AD with two stories on Ukraine. The arrest of a second suspect in the 2022 Nordstream explosion. Germany is prosecuting, while continuing its support for Kyiv. Also a report on a new corruption case (and dismissal) close to the Ukrainian president, this when the open challenge to the president by the former defense minister (his call for elections) still resonates. And, in other news, last night the bigger Russian attack on Kyiv we could have seen coming. Ukraine has hit another Russian oil depot and refinery, Russia is now importing fuel, and reportedly Russians are withdrawing their money from the banks, in fears of government confiscation. Domestically on both sides, things are deteriorating, and meanwhile Rumania has had to strike and destroy a marine drone armed with explosives which was headed for one of its oil fields, currently under construction. And Moscow has warned London of unspecified consequences for Ukraine's use of one of its drones. Every month, NATO countries are pulled in a little further, without much awareness of this among the public. Since Ukraine's needs are only growing, and both sides are escalating, it is high time that European leaders go beyond the EU Commission president's warnings to Russia about its escalation; it is high time that the public gets told directly that there's a war going on and we're in it. Two drivers ignored the do-not-enter sign during the half hour at Møs (one more as I rolled home), and during that time the first shower also arrived. 

August 16, 2026

 Sunday. Left at 9:30. Blacksmith. A new test for the knee. Mild, sunny, but the sky full of stretched out white clouds. Light winds from what appeared to be the northeast. Berenkuil to de Bilt and around Zeist. Under the trees, the pavement still damp sporadically from yesterday's rains. Otherwise, little evidence of that rain, although without it, it would probably have been a lot more dusty in the woods. Sunday riders out in force. Past Woudenberg and Griftdijk, Haarweg. The by now usual picture of stunted corn near the more fully-grown kind, cut fields partially yellow, trees and bushes apparently in survival mode. Not too much motorized traffic on the Amerongseberg. Back up in Leersum, toward and past Ginkelduin. Pretty quiet also, until the Haarweg running alongside the closed freeway, where there was notably more car traffic than usual. Hoogstraat, Ruiterberg, Zeisterweg to the top. No power, but the knee seemed to be holding up. Back around Zeist to de Bilt and Møs. Yesterday's AD, where they don't really cover the world. In other news, reports on various Russian strikes on Ukrainian targets, and Ukrainian strikes on sites in Russia. In greater Ukraine, Russia seems to hit mostly civilian infrastructure, but in the Donbas (Kramatorsk and Slovajansk) the bombing supports military aims, which seem to be coming into view, given that there, too, Ukraine mostly lacks defensive means against Russian air assaults. For its part, Ukraine seems to be hitting all kinds of sites essential for Russia's war, which may explain why the current Russian attacks aren't as large as feared. Today perhaps the largest drone attack on the Moscow region of the entire war, while the Kremlin faces growing difficulty in recruiting enough men for military service (in lots of cases the equivalent of a well-paid premature death). There is growing speculation over a new, national mobilization, which surely will cause a new mass-flight, which for its part could also further weaken Russia's war economy. If Ukraine's strategy is supposed to pressure Russian elites finally to take a stand against the president, his people, and his war agenda, it's perhaps better that NATO continues to respond in a low-key way to Russian drone incursions, as last night over Rumania. A firmer response--against Kaliningrad, for example--could have the effect of rallying Russia's elites around the Kremlin; it would confirm the Russian president's line of being faced with an aggressive, hostile alliance. Hostile, let's hope so; aggressive not so much. In the thirty-odd minutes on the bench, two or three drivers ignoring the do-not enter sign at the Kievitstraat.

August 12, 2026

Wednesday. Left a little after ten. Blacksmith. Warm, not yet hot. Blue skies with blown-apart contrails and other white smudges. Moderate winds out of the east. Singel (neighborly chat) to Koningsweg and Wayen. At the Langeweg, one patch of stunted corn, followed by one where the crop looked normal. ARK with some fast-moving barges. One farm outside of Houten where they still find it necessary to run the sprinklers on the grass alongside their driveway. Schalkwijk bridge, then dead-ending into some roadwork on the kanaaldijk. The town of Schalkwijk. One modern windmill visible in the distance next to the church. The time is long past to worry about those kinds of things. Lange Uitweg to Lekdijk. A guy using a high-pressure hose to clean between the bricks at the end of his driveway. People seeking direct sun in the recreational area behind Tull en 't Waal. Lots of activity on the canal in front of the Beatrixsluizen. Barges and pleasure boats in line, other barges pushing off to join. It must still be possible to navigate west on the Lek. Jutphaas back to ARK and Gele brug. More river cruise ships moored than normal, probably because these really can't use their normal routes, such as the Rhine river. Into the city and Møs. Drought and solar eclipse news in the paper (AD), along with the story about the American president's double plane switch after the recent NATO summit in Turkey. There are many angles to this story, but one perhaps not discussed explicitly enough is Tehran's determination to take the fight to the enemy. This is not unprovoked by any means, but perhaps more significantly, it suggests that the regime's interest in a peaceful outcome to the war is low, just like its concern for the well-being of its population. A U.S. response to a successful attack on the president's plane is too horrible to contemplate, and yet, elements of the Iranian regime apparently worked hard to make such a strike possible. During the half-hour or so on the Kievitstraat side, three or four drivers violated the do-not-enter sign without so much as batting an eye. 

August 10, 2026

Monday. Left a few minutes before ten. Blacksmith. Sunny; not warm, not cool; moderate breezes out of the northwest. Clouds in the distance, especially to the north. City getting back to work, though still quiet. Around the Jaarbeurs to Oog in Al, across the ARK to Groenedijk. Burgemeester Middelweerdbaan and Landschapsbaan, eventually Zandpad. Then Heldamweg to Dorpeldijk, left toward Harmelen, right onto Tiendweg, Breudijk to Kortjaksepad. Hollandse Kade majestic in every direction--Kanis, Woerden, Kockengen--with everything still green. Just one walker and two cyclists on the way to Spengen. Not a soul on the road there. Some traffic on the Geerkade and Portengense Zuwe. Portengen itself almost nothing. Even less human existence along the Grote Heicop, and the superficial view to the north was wide and unspoiled. Tailwind along the ARK, all the way to the Demkabrug with its ridiculous ramp on the city side. Straatweg the rest of the way, with broken glass on almost every block. At Møs a rather thin AD, with little serious news beyond new troubling reports on the drought, here, and next door, in Germany. One new Wildberries story: how, thanks to a licensed Carrefour distributor in Armenia, it can offer all kinds European-made brands. The brands themselves usually have stopped doing business in Russia a long time ago, but, as this and earlier reports point out, they could go the extra mile and withdraw the licenses in question also. None of the dreaded reports yet on massive Russian ballistic missile strikes on Ukraine. Elsewhere a possible explanation in reports on new North Korean support for Russia, both troops and missiles. It suggests that even though Russia is reported to build ballistic missiles at a fast pace, stocks may not be sufficient to try to overwhelm Ukraine and its people. Kyiv, meanwhile, has scored another hit on a oil and gas refinery complex deep inside Russia. The more damage to the Kremlin's war economy, the better the chance the president's position gets undermined. In the half-hour on the shady side at Møs, much evidence of the return to town of students (appearing anxious, and for some reason generally dressed in white).

August 9, 2026

Sunday. Left at 10:10. Blacksmith. Warm, sunny, with some thin, stretched-out white clouds to the south. Very little wind. City very quiet, and so were Groenekan--by way of Hooge Kampse Plas--and Maartensdijk. Cyclists in Lage Vuursche, still not fully open. The air was dusty on the roadway due to the gravel riders alongside it. Soestdijk and the Eng. Some corn looking well, another patch where it seemed stunted. To Soester Hoogt, where near the top the turn has been adjusted, probably to slow down descenders from the other side before they reach the roadway. Around Soesterberg to Schaerweijde; around Zeist toward De Bilt and Møs. Yesterday's paper reporting additional information on Ukraine's strikes on Russia's Wildberries warehouses: not only does the on-line retailer have a separate section with military hardware in support of the war, they also owe a lot of money to a big Russian bank that itself is in trouble. If Wildberries can't meet its financial obligations, that bank may get into trouble, causing a wider financial crisis which for its part would make it harder for the Kremlin to finance its war. What we have (had) now is what you could call "total war": strategies going well beyond the military battlefield and targeting the opposing society's ability to sustain the war effort. Russia has attacked Ukraine's civilian infrastructure since it failed to accomplish a quick break-through in 2023, but Ukraine in the past year or two increasingly has taken the war to Russian society too. Also, where the Kremlin has tried to shield ordinary Russians from a full mobilization, so Ukraine's Western friends have mostly tried to tell themselves that they're not really in this war, in spite of many pledges, and evidence, of support. The Russian president may soon have to face the music at home for pretending there isn't a war going on, but Western governments should already feel very uneasy about the slow pace with which they have tried to increase their production of missiles, anti-ballistic missile systems, and other military hardware. Western leaders are already in trouble for the way they have pretended to their constituents that Ukraine's war in the end isn't really ours, because it is. The unease could soon turn into regret, even shame, and it would all be earned. On the shady side at Møs, a person found it necessary to conduct an on-screen, speaker-phone conversation for fifteen or so minutes. Why not, since we were the only two people there? As that very important conversation continued, the last bit of the paper, AD, on the sunny side of the building (four cars ignoring the do-not-enter sign in fifteen minutes). Letters to the editor on the special subject of the heat this year. It may not have been a representative sample, but maybe it was: what's the problem with nice, warm weather? So much better than rain and gray skies. In a month or so, we'll be back enduring those conditions. There's climate change and such, but I'll be gone by the time that becomes a real problem. And so on. Presumably, these letter writers occasionally look at their paper and what it reports on some of the other effects of all this pleasant weather. But maybe not. It's much easier to ignore news you can't use--until that news stops ignoring you.

August 8, 2026

Saturday. Left a little before 10:30. Blacksmith. Clear skies, a white smudge here and there. Warm. Light, apparently shifting winds. The usual Saturday traffic in town. Vecht westside; pleasure boat traffic, out-to-lunch fatbiker. Op Buuren, and a little impatient coming off the Oostwaarderbrug. Then Zuilense brug and Maarssenbroek. Haarrijnse plas and Rijneveldsche Boschpad. Past Gieltjesdorp toward the nature trail to Laag Nieuwkoop. Grass has been cut everywhere, in places perhaps earlier than normal, for example the west end of Gerverscop. Bike path to Woerden, then Cattenbroek, very peacful. Enough time to notice the partly-hidden, huge barns of the dairy producers. Achthoven to IJsseldijk and Meerlobrug. From the Nedereindseweg a farmer visible with his tractor, running a pump to spray water over his land. The water was black. Racers making the turn to Nedereindse Berg. Merwedekanaal back into town. Out-to-lunch fatbiker. Everything normal, except for the drought.

August 7, 2026

 Friday. Left 10:03. Blacksmith. Overcast, with many shades and shapes of gray. Here and there a sliver of blue, and toward the end even a minute of light rain. Light winds out of the southwest. Berenkuil, KNMI, toward Zeist. Bisschopsweg toward Bunnik, then left, toward Tiendweg and Bunsinglaan. Right at the Driebergen train station, toward Odijk, then left: a quiet Rijnseweg all the way to Sterkenburg. Zuwe to Watertorenweg and Tuurdijk (the lone tree). The fields a mixture of yellow and brown. One or two growers busy spraying, which is still allowed. 't Goy, past Houten, and toward Schalkwijk. Tetwijksepad and the towers of Culemborg; Achterdijk and the view of Schalkwijk's V-shape. Lekdijk and bypass to Beatrixsluis and Sluispad. Jutphaas and Merwedekanaal back into the city and Møs. Still only AD, which covered the armed drone next to a Ukrainian transport plane at Leipzig the other day. We, here in Western Europe, may not consider ourselves at war with Moscow, but Moscow sees it differently. The paper was quiet on the fact that Ukraine has run out of defenses against Russian ballistic missiles. That's an eerie and ominous quiet before the storm. After all, for the Kremlin, its war against Ukraine has always been about submission. From its perspective, this has to be the moment to escalate in order to force Kyiv to its knees. It may not be possible to achieve a break-through at the front, and Russia itself is surely taking a beating from Ukraine's drone offensive. But how long will Ukraine be able to take a sustained Russian missile barrage on its civilian and military infrastructure? The way we've gotten to know the Russian president, he must be issuing orders for his military to find out, and soon. Apparently, there's little to nothing Kyiv's friends and partners in the West are able to do to help on this particular, potentially life-or-death, issue. 

August 2, 2026

 Sunday. Left at 9:55. Blacksmith. Warm, not hot. Some white in the skies. Light, eventually moderate, breezes out of the east. Straatweg out of town. Notably busier than at nine. Maarssen to ARK eastside, and Maarssenbroekdijk-Otterspoorbroek-Woerdenseweg. There are some of the original places left, but most on this sheltered stretch is modern and upscale, often decorated with expensive vehicles. Toward Breukelen alongside riders on the other side of the river. Pleasure boats on the river--pleasure boats everywhere. Across the ARK and north toward the Angstelkade. Deserted, but pleasure boats audible on the other side of the reeds. Heading east, a brownish puddle of water on the road--out of place, since our last rain of any significance dates back to a week ago. Loenersloot and west, toward Vinkeveen. Sunday cyclists everywhere. Bikepath Groenlandsekade to Baambrugse Zuwe and its opulence. Hotel Plashoeve hanging on from an earlier era. With all the money on that stretch, there should be a way to not only preserve, but also restore it. The way it looks these days, it could be gone soon if nothing changes. Bridge between the lakes open. Later, puddles on the asphalt, but here because of the low-lying road, so low that at times the water on the other side of the reeds seems to sit above it. Left at the village, toward Demmerik. The little bridge at the edge of town opened, for the pleasure boats, when it came into view. A young woman, also stopped at the earlier barrier, on her way to Kasteel de Haar. Her speed was higher both times--until it wasn't. Donkereind, Portengen, the skills bike path to Gieltjesdorp, then Haarzuilens. Smalle Themaat, Lint, and 't Zand to Gele brug, and back into town. In the news, the next round in the Washington see-saw: maybe we won't allow Ukraine to produce Patriot missiles after all, and let's hold off on the announced devastating strikes on Iranian civilian infrastructure. Peace is at hand once more--until it isn't. Ukraine, meanwhile can't defend itself any more against Russian ballistic missiles, even if it can still strike all kinds of Russian targets. 

August 1, 2026

Saturday. Left by ten. Blacksmith. Warm, not hot. Light winds, clouds visible on the northwestern horizon. Merwedekanaal to Jutphaas. At the bottom of the bridge the ugly outcome of a bicycle collision or crash. Ambulance, police, two buses going nowhere. One woman, oxygen mask and all, flat on a stretcher, being prepared for the ambulance, another, dazed, sitting on the ground, her back against a traffic pole. Police apparently canvassing bystanders. One bicycle still on its side in the middle of the road. On to Vreeswijk, then Lekdijk. The wetland areas close to the levee drying out, but the shipping channel seemed ok. First a half-full fuel-barge, then a container barge about half-full, then a smaller barge apparently fully loaded--all headed west. Later also a fully-loaded smaller barge coming east. Light traffic on the levee, its grasses a mixture of yellow and green. Lopik to Polsbroekerdam and Oudewater (bridge up). Snelrewaard peaceful, as was Montfoort. Harmelen, de Meern, de Meernbrug, and into town to Møs. The first of the month, but the new subscription to the Volkskrant doesn't seem to have started yet. AD with lots of reporting on the migrant situation at the Spanish enclave of Ceuta. The political upheaval all over Europe in response to this crisis is one of the more sordid aspects. Just like the general discussion in this country of asylum and migration questions, it seems mostly detached from the wider realities. What may move people to risk their lives (67 confirmed dead so far) by wading into the ocean and swimming fully clothed from a relatively peaceful country such as Morocco to neighboring Spanish territory--that question rarely gets asked. It remains far too easy to mobilize people behind the idea that none of the problems that cause people to flee are of any concern to us. Just keep 'em out. It is not that we should welcome all comers, not at all. However, by pretending that in a globalized world we can just pick and choose which aspects of interconnectedness and interdependence to accept (avocados year-round; must-make trips to the far corners of the earth; cheap foreign labor to perform unpleasant tasks; the ability to order cheap stuff from China; the opportunity to ship our waste abroad), and act as if the rest might as well not exist--in that posture, we're part of the problem--and causing a significant part of it. But what politician is going to campaign on that message. In the thirty or so minutes on the bench at Møs, many fewer people cycled by than on a regular Saturday. Two or three cars ignored the do-not-enter sign.

July 30, 2026

Thursday. Left by 10:30. Blacksmith. Warm, no longer hot, moderate winds out of the northwest, thin white clouds of various shapes, gradually getting overcast. Biltse Rading. A technician on a ladder working on a small solar panel. His van parked by the side of the bike path--and why not let that diesel engine run while you're doing your job, up there on the ladder? Rapid bike route out of Bilthoven to Den Dolder and the railroad tracks. In Amersfoort, up the Abraham Kuyperlaan, and further up by way of the Emmalaan. Down Utrechtseweg, then left at the bottom, the bike trail toward the train station. Tunnel underneath the tracks and Soesterweg. A detour to the Noorderwierweg: Crocusstraat and Begoniastraat. "Soesterkwartier" in the old, unflattering sense. The land on both sides of the A.P. Hilhorstweg dry. Also a beautiful sunflower border around a patch of corn. The Eng very dry too, then semi-lost on the way to Wieksloterweg. Boerenstreek the escape route. Maartensdijk, Groenekan, Overvecht, and Møs. Still just the AD, but it had an interview with a Russian economist in exile, emphasizing the passivity of the Russian population, and warning that the country's economy is not at the point of collapse. If the president wanted to continue the war for another five years, he could, according to this observer. His advice to the West is to lure Russia's oligarchs and their money away from the Kremlin, the implication probably being that this will deprive the regime of crucial means to keep the war, and the war economy, going. It is, indeed, crucial to get Russian elites to act independently from the Kremlin and in ways that counter the war effort. The likely way for the war to end is without this Russian president having a big say. This economist too sees him as increasingly irrational, suggesting that efforts to get him around the table with his Ukrainian colleague in order to work something out (other than Ukraine's unconditional surrender) are pointless. A combination of Ukraine's war efforts and diplomacy by outsiders directed at Russian elites standing to gain from peace--such a combination could check-mate the Russian president, or make him largely irrelevant in an eventual negotiated end to the war. And indeed, we could be there as early as next week, and we might not get there for another five years.

July 29, 2026

Wednesday. Nederhorst den Berg. Left a little after eleven after a lake swim. Nikor. The lake was very calm, with some green algae lapping against the shore. Further in, the water quickly got clear and there was just one motor boat, which kept its distance. Already warm in the morning, with a near-cloudless sky, and light, later moderate, winds out of the southwest. The smell of new-mowed hay on the Spiegelweg. Vecht to Muiden. People out on racing bikes, few of them going very fast. The bright colors alongside the IJburg cyling highway almost completely gone now. In its place, multiple shades of yellow, brown, and green. Coffee and newspaper at Javaplein. Ukraine now receiving threats from Iran because of an attack on an Iranian ship in the Caspian Sea. It is not clear what Tehran would do if this continues; stopping their support for Russia is probably low on the list, although one would think that the Islamist regime currently has enough problems also to start lobbing missiles at Ukraine. Another article discussing the deteriorating situation in Crimea, due to Ukrainian attacks on supply routes, power plants, military bases. The attacks are designed to relieve Ukraine's southern front, but also, presumably, to compel the Russian president--not to escalate, but to be open to a diplomatic end to the war. There are no signs Moscow is thinking along those lines, but perhaps outside powers, in combination with certain members of Russia's elites, could help things along. The Americans would have to play their part, and perhaps it is a good thing--another story in the same paper--that a notorious American "influencer" with access to and, apparently, influence with the president, has recently changed her views on the Ukraine war 180 degrees and now fully supports Kyiv. Theoretically, the U.S. could still have a more significant and beneficial impact on the war itself by making it easier for Kyiv to obtain both defensive and offensive weapons. It could also make clear to Russian leaders, and those with access to them, that the terms for a more productive and peaceful relationship with the U.S. include an end to the current war and meaningful guarantees for Ukraine's independence. If that were to be Washington's policy, Europe would surely support it and play its part. Nobody knows how close we are to the point where this kind of thinking might even get a hearing in the Kremlin. It does seem clear that Ukraine's current drone offensive can get us closer. On to the Bushuis. The city not swarming with tourists, it seemed, except, as always, at the Bushuissluis. Back in warm conditions through Muiden, Zuidpolderweg, Keverdijk, and Hinderdam. The Keverdijksepolder is still green, as is the Heintjesrak en Broekerpolder, but on the whole, we're drying up fast. Ice cream at the square in town. Dead, with a few people on the edges in the shadows.

July 26, 2026

Sunday. Left a little after ten. Blacksmith. Overcast, with showers on the way. Not warm, not cool. Breezy out of the southwest. Gele brug to Hermelijnvlinderpad. The first few raindrops there. Alendorp to Rivierpad. Walkers, runners, some cyclists. A few yellow flowers in what seems to be a zucchini patch alongside the Rivierpad. Breudijk toward Gerverscop. Knee doing ok, but entire body still in light recovery mode. The corn in the field at the beginning of Gerverscop has disappeared, and another crop (maybe just grass) is on its way. No motorized traffic through Gerverscop, except for the huge tractor-hay trailer combination at the very end, hogging almost the entire road through the turn. Light rain from the Rodendijk all the way home. The pavement eventually just plain wet. It wasn't a lot of water, but it is very welcome nonetheless. At the Vechtbrug in Breukelen, a long line of retiree vacation cyclists making the turn into town, uttering greetings in Spanish. In the short left-right turn on Gunterstein, flattened, wet manure causing a skid, but nothing worse. The quiet at the Strook, Veenkade, Herenweg, and the rest of the way home suggesting that the rain had begun to keep people inside. In the news, word that, for the time being, the American president is holding off on more intensified air strikes on Iranian civilian infrastructure. That's until the next round of threats, possibly some more attacks, followed by yet another shift. And so on, and so forth. Washington's cluelessness and aggression should not lead to any kind of admiration for the fanatical, murderous regime in Tehran and its ability to withstand U.S. attacks. We have to see each regime for what it is and hope that before things really get out of hand, enough influential outside powers that are directly or indirectly affected by this war put pressure on Washington and Tehran to find a way out. They certainly seem incapable of getting there on their own. Unfortunately, before there's any chance of that happening, the Israeli prime-minister will visit Washington this week. The whole military campaign was his idea, and even though it has been a disaster, the man will likely argue for the U.S. and Israel to double down. Using excessive military force is not just his favorite option, it has long been his only option. It is anybody's guess how the American president will respond--and if he responds in one way, he could change his mind again soon after that. Thus, given the people in charge on all sides in this conflict (put there, in the case of Washington and Jerusalem, by voters in a democratic process), it is unlikely that we will see a real change for the better any time soon, maybe not for a couple of years. Meanwhile, the opportunities for an even greater disaster remain plentiful.

July 25, 2026

 Saturday. Left at 9:51. Nikor. Sunny, warm--not hot. Moderate winds out of the south/southwest. Clear skies, just some white brush strokes on the horizon. Koningsweg to Vechten and Achterdijk. There, and alongside the Hollendewagenweg thriving wildflower borders. The rest of the fields and of nature pretty dry. People out, but not too many. Getting out of the saddle still a bit sensitive, but parts in the big ring without issues. Dwarsdijk and Kapellenweg (apples or pears on the trees). Lek fairly peaceful, no barges. The areas between the breakwaters beginning to fall dry. Beatrixsluis, Plofsluis, Jutphaase brug, and Merwedekanaal back into town and Møs. The drought intensifies, but this time there were many barges tied to shore along the Sluispad. Perhaps that by now for many of them more and more waterways, such as the Lek, have become too shallow to navigate profitably. In the paper (AD, but de Volkskrant will return, they said) a report on how the Russian government is forcing companies and universities (well east of Moscow) to supply a certain number of recruits for the military every month. This among other forced recruitment tactics. Not much those poor people can do against the police state, but the police state is being hit where it hurts on a regular basis now. Unfortunately, Brussels has allowed Greece to support Ukraine rhetorically while protecting the bottom line of one of its influential shipping tycoons. To say that country, and several other EU members, have a credibility problem would be an understatement. 

July 22, 2026

Wednesday. Left as the church bells in Nederhorst den Berg struck eleven. Nikor, after a quick swin in the lake. Showers, but brief, and it wasn't cold. So-called bad weather eliminates most people from the beach and the lake itself. Eendracht riders passing on the way out of town. The skies were many shades of gray, and after Muiden there was a brief shower. Breezy out of the northwest, but the knee did ok. Getting out of the saddle sensitive, but possible. Boats in the locks at Spiegelplas and Muiden, but no hold-up. A new bridge leading into Weesp; the old one had been there since at least the 1970s and was nicer to look at. Grasses, weeds, and wildflowers tall on IJburg, though less colorful than a month ago. The new trail between Muiden and Overdiemen is efficient, but it's no fun no longer to be able to look out over the water. Javaplein with the newspaper. An editorial critical of the unwillingness of many EU member states to be as tough and consistent in their sanctions policy toward Russia as they could be. As a group, the EU talks firmly, but the sanctions stick is rather flexible, and quite a few countries look for exceptions for their own companies and interests. If sanctions, Europe's favorite tool, are to be successful, they'll impose hardship, not just on the recipient, but also those imposing them. Given public opinion in many EU countries and the Union's great diversity in membership, the current performance may be the best one possible. At least Brussels has begun to send to Ukraine parts of the 90 billion Euro support package long held up by Hungary. Also in the news how the Ukrainian president has now also fired his top general, the main rival of the former defense minister, sacked last week. The new top general is an ally of the previous defense minister, and the new defense minister seems on board too with his predecessor's emphasis on new technologies over traditional war-fighting under a rigid, top-down command structure. We may, or may not, learn whether the two firings, and their timing, was part of a preconceived plan by the president, or whether the old general's dismissal became inevitable after many people became angry and protested in the past week. (Either one signals good things about the way Ukraine is being led). In any case, if the president also succeeds in bringing the former defense minister back into the government in a major position, the original stand-off between the old general and the young minister may have moved the country forward. Ukraine needs all the help it can get from its friends, but in the end will have to force Russia to give up all by itself. On to the Bushuis through a moderately busy city. Back by way of Zuidpolderweg and Keverdijk. Peak vacation time, and the locals vacationing elsewhere outweigh the strangers being here.  

July 15, 2026

 Wednesday. Left around 10:15. Blacksmith. Small ring again, stuck to the saddle, creeping up the inclines. But it is riding, it is being outside. Warm and sunny, moderate winds out of the east. Busy on the Singel; the garbage trucks stink in this weather. Koningsweg to Wayen and Langeweg. There, a hare on the road who kept running ahead and eventually took off into the field to the right. Grasses and hedges beginning to look dry. We are in a drought. Sluispad to Beatrixsluizen, then Schipperspad. Just a handful of barges at the quays, probably because all skippers have lots of work due to low water levels in the rivers preventing anyone from carrying a full load. On the ARK still a few barges loaded down. Gele brug back into town and Møs, where they seem to have cancelled their Volkskrant subscription. AD instead--still undisturbed by 11:30. Two nuclear-armed powers engaged in warfare. Yesterday, the American president announced tolling charges for passage through a waterway he does not control; today he pulled back and instead announced major air strikes on Iranian infrastructure for next week. By the weekend, those will likely be postponed, and we'll hear about something else. The U.S. presumably is a key player in a diplomatic way out of Russia's war on Ukraine. That country's counteroffensive around Crimea by all accounts is taking a serious toll, certainly on Moscow's ability to supply its southern front in Ukraine, perhaps also on its overall hold on the peninsula. The best Ukraine can hope to achieve by these and other kinds of hits on Russia's ability to wage war is cease-fire talks, followed by a peace process. More likely today, unfortunately, until regime change in Moscow, is Russian escalation from the air, targeting civilian infrastructure. If there were to be regime-change, a cease-fire might be achievable given that the reason to remove the current leader would be his unwillingness to change course in his catastrophic war. For a longer-term outcome giving Ukraine a chance at survival as an independent nation, it would be hard to put any stock in what Washington may or may not be able to contribute--at least until there is regime change there too. Good luck to all of us, first and foremost Ukraine, getting through the next two-and-a-half years. In the time it took to get through the paper, just two cars violated the do-not-enter restriction at the Kievitstraat at Møs.

July 11, 2026

 Saturday. Left a little before ten, cautiously. Blacksmith. Cool for a summer day, but very pleasant. Mostly cloudy, gradually getting more sunny. Light winds out of the northeast. Seated and small ring--no getting out of the saddle. Overvecht and Blauwkapel to Ruygenhoek. Swimmers in the nature pool, just 5.5 km from home. Kooijdijk to Westbroek and toward Tienhoven. Saturday morning in a vacation month. Middenweg to Bethuneweg; Herenweg to Oud Zuilen and Mos. In the paper ongoing speculation about possible desperate moves by the Russian president, particularly against one of the Baltic states. This in addition to stories from Russia about elites questioning the course of the country. And Ukraine, aside from being hit itself daily, keeps hitting targets inside the country. There are no good options for the Kremlin, and who is going to say what or how the president thinks, and on the basis of what information. But all his chips are on this cruel, costly war where Europe is Ukraine's main supporter, and the current administration in Washington a perpetual wild card. That last aspect also means it can't be predicted if the U.S. will be willing to act in case of a Russian provocation in the Baltics. It would be up to the Europeans, and they may fall short, in which case Ukraine's resistance could be undermined also. And it could all happen next week. 

July 7, 2026

 Tuesday. Left around 1:30. Blacksmith. Summer. White clouds, but mostly sunny. Breezy from the northwest. Vecht westside to Op Buuren and Zuilensebrug, Maarssenbroek, and around the Haarrijnse plas. Schoolkids on the way home, but manageable. Around Haarzuilens to natuurpad leading to Laag Nieuwkoop. Wildflowers and colored nettles and weeds still around, but not as exuberant as a couple of weeks ago. Vacation cyclists, but not bad at all on the Hollandse Kade. There, the reeds and bushes moving majestically in the wind. Houtdijkerpad to Kromme Rijn and Harmelen. The special bike route prominently running through town now. De Meern toward the city. Taken down hard by a fat bike in the turn leading to De Meern brug. As if there was no right-of-way. But there is no right-of-way, there's only maintaining sufficient margin-for-error at all times--your error, or someone else's. Banged up, but able to continue home.

July 5, 2026

 Sunday. Left a little after ten. Blacksmith. Not cool, not warm. Overcast with a variety of gray clouds, here and there a small gap for the sun. Along the way, once or twice a few small raindrops. Breezy out of the west. Bilthoven to Den Dolder and the trail alongside the train tracks to Amersfoort. The usual Sunday morning cycling traffic, along with runners and walkers. No outlet from the Bremstraat, although the map suggests there is. Amersfoortse berg to the Belgian Monument, then toward Leusden-Zuid. Left at De Mof, to and through Scherpenzeel (quiet). A young couple pushing a stroller, with the man in a t-shirt and the women in a red dress, wearing short, white, high-heeled boots. There were other people along the way appartently going home from church. Toward and over the hill (light traffic), right at the bottom in Amerongen. Right again in Leersum toward Ginkelduin. Haarweg to Scherpenzeelseweg and back toward Leersum. There a right, then Hoogstraat and Ruiterberg. Gooijerdijk toward Driebergen, then Sterkenburg, Beverweerd, and the tunnel at Werkhoven. Into the wind down the Achterdijk and past Vechten. Into town by way of Kampong and Kromme Rijn. In the news another Ukrainian hit on Russian oil infrastructure at St Petersburg. And openly expressed concerns by Scandinavians: Putin may be getting desperate and choose to double down, also in the Baltic. The options for NATO would not be good: hitting back, if Washington could be persuaded not to stand in the way, brings the risk of further escalation with a nuclear power. Still, a proportional response there would have to be, otherwise Moscow will continue to believe Europe is all talk (at opportune and inopportune times) and no action. Exactly what the response would be, and where, of course would depend on the nature of the Russian escalation. It would also have to be sold to the public in the West, something not to be taken lightly, but not a reason not to do it. As if the situation wasn't grim enough, it's getting grimmer by the week.

July 3, 2026

Friday. The envisioned talk did not happen, but this in a nutshell is what I would have told the student participants in this UN-oriented workshop: 

Talking about a "rules-based order," I would have started with a reference to something Mahatma Gandhi probably never said, when asked (or not) about Western Civilization: "It would be a good idea." We hardly have one today, maybe never really did, and yet as a globalized world, we can't really live without a common way to face up to shared challenges. The problem is political. Under the right circumstances (most of the second half of the twentieth century), the "international community" (if something like that ever really existed) can make good progress in building a rules-based order. However, as the history of the past two centuries shows, the very particular rule first put in writing by Thucydides keeps asserting itself: "the strong do what they have the power to do and the weak accept what they have to accept." The conclusion, especially for the participants in your program, is that one should be very clear-eyed about the temptation for great powers to make their own rules, and, given that, think and work hard with all the others (those states, groups, and individuals for whom a credible international rule book is of crucial importance) on maintaining and augmenting laws, treaties, institutions created since 1945, and to convince great powers (those subject to the temptation of "might makes right") that in the long term, a credible rules-based international order is in their interest too. The globalizing world prior to 1914 did not have a common way to face up to shared challenges, and there came a big, global war; the world of the 1920s and 1930s had an inadequate international rule book, and an even bigger war came; the world of the Cold War, and beyond, did much better, until the beginning of the twenty-first century. We don't have a new world war yet, and nothing is inevitable until it happens. But (a historian's warning): while history does not repeat itself, it does often rhyme.  

July 1, 2026

 Wednesday. Left twenty to ten for De Biltse Hoek. Blacksmith. Mild, light winds out of the southwest. Sunny. Detour from the Berenkuil. Detour around Zeist, past Huis ter Heide, then toward Woudenberg. Groups of school kids with their teachers on end-of-year excursions. Right onto Griftdijk. Rumelaarseweg toward Emminkhuizen. A detour, so left Biesbosserweg into Renswoude. Scherpenzeel next, back onto country roads at the Voskuilerweg. Voskuilerdijk to De Mof, then Den Treek. Toward and eventually up Trekerweg. Toward and around Zeist to Bunsinglaan. Through Bunnik, then Koningsweg back into the city. At work on a talk on the "rules-based order." As Gandhi probably never said when asked, or not, about Western Civilization: it would be a good idea. 

June 28, 2026

Sunday. Left around 9:45. Blacksmith. Still warm, in spite of the overnight storms. Mostly sunny, light winds out of the southwest. Blauwkapel to Groenedijk and Korssesteeg. Corn shooting up now, and the water lilies have opened up. At Egelshoek and elsewhere under the trees, lots of torn-off leaves and little branches, and damp pavement. Kerkelanden to 's-Graveland and Brambergen. Back by way of Emmaweg, 's-Gravelandsevaartweg, and Nieuw Loosdrechtsedijk. Less boater traffic than expected, and in Polder Bethune it was even quieter. Back into town along Zandpad. People perhaps still hiding indoors from the heat. In the news, the Russian president's acknowledgement that the country now faces fuel shortages due to Ukrainian drone strikes. Kyiv's campaign is envisioned to last another month or so, so at the current pace, things could get much more tight. A big question is whether, if that indeed happens, the Kremlin will become desperate and choose escalation, or whether somehow it can be prevailed upon to adjust its story of what this war is about, what Russia has accomplished, and what could furthermore be accomplished at the negotiating table. Apparently, the Russian leader is also looking forward to U.S. negotiators (the terribly swift and effective, entirely disinterested businessmen) returning to Moscow after peace with Iran has been solidified. As a view into the president's mind, that's a potentially encouraging sign; as a concrete path out of the current war, it's so uncertain as to be almost meaningless.

June 26, 2026

Friday. Nederhorst den Berg. Nikor. Left twenty to eleven, after a lake swim. A very warm day, so people, and their dogs, already gathering at the beach. The lake still fairly quiet, although one stinking pleasure boat passed by. Light winds out of the southeast, which made a difference on the way back. The old commute, alongside the Vecht to Muiden. The Spiegelplas lock let just one pleasure boat onto the river; in Muiden, the barriers were up, the bridge passable. In between, and all the way to the city it was unusually quiet out. Javaplein with the paper. A preview of the upcoming NATO summit in Turkey and how there may be opportunities to show some unity, the U.S. included, and thereby maintain some credibility for the alliance. "Some" would be the key term here, because the current administration in Washington has shown time and again it's unserious about these matters, and thus, in the final analysis, unreliable. At the same time, there are things Washington still agrees to do with and in Europe. Deterrence relies not just on weapons, military ability, political resilience, and the like, but also on just enough uncertainty about one's willingness to follow through on warnings about the importance of certain red lines. Perhaps there's still enough uncertainty about what Washington will do in the face of a provocation or worse. Perhaps. Unfortunately, there may not be enough doubt (in Moscow) about European willingness and ability to confront aggression. Fortunately, Ukraine in the meantime is hitting Russia, especially Crimea so hard that on the peninsula a state of emergency has been declared. There will be a Russian response, of course, so calling it good news isn't quite right. But this current Ukrainian operation seems the most promising way to bring about some change in the Russian position.

June 24, 2026

 Wednesday. Left a little before 9:45. Blacksmith. Warm already, without a cloud in the sky, and light winds out of the east. Through the Berenkuil toward De Bilt and Bunnik. Then Odijk to Rijsenburgselaan. Outside of Odijk a pair of storks on a nest, monitored by a birder. From the bike, no chicks visible. Right turn after the church in Driebergen, toward Doorn. Across the Hoogstraat (quiet) then Maarnsegrindweg and Quatre Bras. Up Zeisterweg toward another detour in Zeist, leading to the Utrechtseweg by way of the Dreef. Utrechtseweg had a closure too, so back to the Berenkuil on the south side. Paper at Møs with a report on Germany pulling out of a frigate project at a Dutch shipbuilder (collaborating with German partners). It's the same builder having trouble (major delays, major cost overruns) on a project with the Belgian government. This comes on top of the recent news of the failure of the French-German effort to develop a new, European fighter plane (presumably as an alternative to buying American). And so where the rubber of Europe's aspirations hits the road of genuine and timely results, the continent seems stuck in neutral. It should still get a seat at the table if and when talks to end the war (not on the horizon) begin, but for its own credibility it would be good if, at least at the national level, some muscle could be built. Otherwise, surely the Russian president, but maybe Washington too, will continue to ask: "how many divisions does Costa have?"

June 22, 2026

 Monday. Nederhorst den Berg. Left a little before 11:30 after a lake swim (and an old acquaintance). Breezy out of the northeast; warm, not hot. Sunny, with some light, disorganized white cloud patterns. The lake had been mostly empty, as was the beach; the water clean, but not as clear as it can be. The old doctor's residence and practice is being renovated and, it appears, expanded a little. Spiegelweg and Vecht to Loodijk and the east side of the river. Muiden still quiet, then along the dike where there used to be hardly anything, but not anymore. It's another consequence of the expanding city: the cycling infrastructure needs to keep pace, every time at the expense of a little more green space. IJburg was spectacular, with white, pink, red, green, yellow, and purple wildflowers and weeds on both sides of the asphalt. Coffee and the news at Javaplein. A story on how Ukrainian attacks make it less and less attractive for Russians to vacation in Crimea, but also a grim report on those who remain in the Donbas city of Kramatorsk, in the face of Russian attacks. Elsewhere, a story on the Russian economy, not close to collapse. China is a major partner, and enough funds come in from the sale of oil, gas, and other commodities to keep things going.  The Russian economy has become a war economy, which may make it harder to end the war, since peace would likely force major and difficult changes, where things currently have taken on a kind of normalcy. It could actually be worse, according to some in the Baltics, because instead of reforming itself, the Russian war economy might just go looking for another conflict, for example against NATO in the Baltics. Hard to imagine, perhaps, but it's important to try to think, and think through, the unthinkable in these matters. For the war to end, we still need some kind of major shift in the Russian position. From their strategy it is clear that the Ukrainians understand that, aside from trying to stay one or two steps ahead of the Russians on the battlefield, hitting key sites of Russia's war economy is the best way to undermine the Kremlin's ability, not only to wage the war, but also to run the country. Western sanctions haven't brought about an economic emergency in Russia, and they probably can't. The most likely, though not necessarily promising, way to change Moscow's calculus is for Ukraine to keep hitting Russia's industrial sites (while improving its defenses against Russia's terror attacks). Kyiv's European friends should focus their efforts there, not on premature diplomatic initiatives toward the Kremlin. From Javaplein to the Bushuis, and from there back to IJburg and Muiden. Then toward Hakkelaarsbrug, the Keverdijk, and the old village. There, in spite of ongoing new construction, not too much ever seems to change.

June 20, 2026

Saturday. Left a little before nine. Blacksmith. Warm, but still some moisture in the air from last night's storms. Light, variable winds, later blowing moderately from the west. Lots of small branches with leaves on the ground everywhere. Berenkuil to De Bilt and on toward Soesterberg. Under the trees, the pavement was still damp, sometimes wet. Zeisterspoor to Dodeweg, Heiligenbergerweg, and around Leusden. Engweg a new road, but a bit too rough, with long-neglected brick sections--old-style narrow bricks and even a short section of little square bricks. Then Stoutenburgerlaan to Hoevelaken, Middelaarseweg toward Terschuur, then back across the freeway. Coffee at Brons. Serve yourself in the mudroom. Back through Achterveld, toward Leusden, Kanaalweg, de Mof, and Treek. A lot of walkers, perhaps practicing for the Four Days Marches. In the woods, the roads still damp or wet. Around Zeist and back to De Bilt and home. In the news Ukrainian general-turned-ambassador Valerii Zaluzhiny warning that the war is far from over. It's a stalemate, and Russia still thinks it can outlast Ukraine through a combination of relentless attacks at the Ukrainian front lines (regardless of the cost) and terror attacks using ballistic missiles, against which, Zaluzhiny notes, it is impossible to defend oneself. Russia simply has too many of them. Also in the news, EU Council president Costa defends his recent approach to the Kremlin, and one wonders why he felt the need. In any case, against the background of Zaluzhiny's comments, these soundings look even more premature. Which may have been the ambassador's goal: focus European minds on the unceasingly urgent need to support Ukraine militarily and in other ways. The time for diplomacy isn't here yet; Europeans should curb their counterproductive eagerness to talk to the Kremlin. Right now, there's nothing to discuss.

June 18, 2026

Thursday. Left a little after ten. Blacksmith. Warm already, with some unorganized white clouds in various shapes. Light to moderate winds out of the south. Koningsweg to Marsdijk (a large Mercedes driving as if it was the highway), then Achterdijk with its tightly-controlled grasslands. Werkhoven and Hollendewagenweg, then toward Dwarsdijk. Just before it, an approaching farm vehicle so big it had no place to go but all of the available asphalt. Other than these two interactions it was a fairly quiet weekday morning. Kapelleweg to 't Goybrug and the Lekdijk. The river peaceful, as were the farms. Just a handful of users at the park near Tull en 't Waal. Tailwind on the Sluispad to Plofsluis, then toward Jutphaas en the Jutphasebrug. The paper at Møs with mixed news about the war. On the one hand, Ukrainian forces have virtually been pushed out of the town of Kostyantynivka (some 70,000 people before the war, virtually nobody left), on the other, a long article explaining how Ukraine's evolving drone capabilities wreak havoc on the access roads to Crimea, and how the same capabilities are hitting Russian units and storage sites well behind the front lines. The same paper also reported on the G-7 pledge of unwavering support for Ukraine's freedom, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. That group includes the American president, so who knows. At any rate, it would be hard today to argue that Ukraine holds no cards. In that light, the news that the EU Council president has confidentially reached out to Moscow to open a channel of communication is strange, to say the least. For the war to end in an even remotely just way, it would have to be Russia reaching out to Brussels, because that would signal distress and perhaps a willingness to give up some of the war aims. For Brussels to reach out to Moscow now seems, except premature, to be a sign of EU anxiety about perhaps being left out of any talks once and if they begin. But it's exactly the wrong signal to send the Kremlin. As today's spectacular drone strikes near Moscow suggest, we may be approaching the point where Russia isn't just not winning, but is actually the losing side, and this for all to see. We need to get a little closer to that point; we need to get to the point where it is clear that Moscow is looking for a way out of its war of aggression. Keep up the pressure, and let them come to us.

June 14, 2026

Sunday. Left a little after nine. Blacksmith. Cool, overcast, moderate winds out of the northwest. Long sleeve jersey not an exaggeration. Berenkuil to De Bilt, around Zeist toward Woudenberg. Fairly quiet everywhere. Evidence of a recent shower before Woudenberg. Griftdijk and beyond was dry again. Past the donkeys to the Haarweg, then across the partially closed freeway. Amerongse berg fairly quiet also. Right at Leersum toward Ginkelduin. A large pack of motorcyles, not the only one today. Hoogstraat to Ruiterberg. People, but not too many, maybe late sleepers due to late-night soccer. Back up the hill toward the Pyramid, then down toward Zeist, and around it to De Bilt and the city. Last bit a headwind, but nothing dramatic. Yesterday's papers at Møs. The American general who is NATO's SACEUR has read the intelligence and does not believe Russia is seeking conflict with Europe. Nordic countries see it differently. Perhaps recent intelligence shows no preparations for an attack, the evidence and experience from the past years--including the Russian president's repeated statements--demonstrate that Moscow considers itself in conflict with Europe already. How could it not? Just the other day, the British navy intercepted a oil tanker from Russia's shadow fleet; the French did so just a couple of weeks ago. In addition, the EU is proceeding with the start of membership talks for Ukraine and Moldova. These countries turning toward Europe was Russia's prime reason to attack in 2014. There is no sign, quite the opposite, that the Russian president has abandoned his maximalist objectives in the war, including pushing back NATO from where it is now. Obviously, his armies are in no position to mount any kind of sustained offensive against a NATO country. Nordic officials believe this could change if and when the war in Ukraine comes to an end. Whether, as they say, Russia will then have a large, well-trained military capable of taking on NATO is a big question, given how poorly Russia's military is performing against Ukraine and given how hard it is for Moscow to find recruits able and willing to fight. All of which doesn't mean that Europe should not consider itself in conflict with Russia and that it should not prepare for all kinds of Russian actions designed to divide it. Perhaps the Americans will still help if something goes wrong, but it would be much better if that were a bonus, instead of critical. More important in such a case would be to have integrated Ukraine far enough so as to be able to use its hard-earned experience, and its military capabilities, to beat back any Russian initiative. If integration proceeds quickly enough, and assuming the war ends in a way that allows for genuine Ukrainian independence and security, perhaps that Europe's deterrence will be enhanced to such an extent that, indeed, there will be no Russian fantasizing over an offensive.

June 11, 2026

Thursday. Left a little before ten. Blacksmith. On the cool side, partly cloudy. White cumulus clouds, a bit of gray here and there. One raindrop, riding on the Nedereindseweg. Jaarbeurs and Merwedekanaal to Jutphaas and Nedereindseweg. Meerlobrug to IJsseldijk. The flowers in the lillypads are about to open up, newly planted corn still has a long way to go. Around IJsselstein and through Benschop. Just a quiet weekday morning. Right at Polsbroekerdam toward Oudewater. Green polders stretching far to the left and right. A bridge stand-off in Oudewater involving several cars. Snelrewaard to Montfoort. At Mastwijk another stand-off, this time between two trucks. It doesn't take much for trucks, even cars, to run into trouble in these small towns, and that is as it should be. Any stretch without traffic furniture brings out the race car driver in people. New pink asphalt between Harmelen and De Meern. De Meernbrug to Møs and the paper. Lots of commentary on the World Cup, most of it negative. That the U.S. government would ban, among others, Somali referee Omar Artan has long ceased to be a surprise, and neither was the complete silence from FIFA. The ban and the silence are still outrageous, but outrageous has become routine. Still depressing, as some letter writers and commentators pointed out too, is that no individual referee, coach, or player has taken a stand. Doing so would likely have come at a personal cost, but it's not as if that's not the case now. If something like this happens--and certainly if it happens to, so to speak, one of your own--and you do nothing, you're implicated in the outrage. Let enough chances to take a stand go by, especially when the outrage occurs close to home, and you will live in a world where bullies and gangsters run wild.

June 8, 2026

 Monday. Left around 9:30. Blacksmith. Overcast, mild, light to moderate winds out of the south. Groenekan to Groenedijk. In the water, a couple of swans with eight chicks, some white, some gray. Korssesteeg with lots of campers, now also behind one of the farms--those with the AI-generated protest signs--that soon may have to close. How it may be in a few years: new areas of managed nature preserve, perhaps also recreation and camping. And maybe that a different type of farm may still be there too. Egelshoek to Tienhoven. The oasis of the Tienhovensch kanaal. Birdsong, grasses, weeds, and lots of color. Just a few people. Tienhoven to Nedereindseweg. Before Molenhoek nettles with purple flowers. Then the trail around the lake to the Gageldijk (a brown cow with a young calf). Klopdijk and the detour around Zuylenstede back into town and Møs. In the paper, an analysis underlining the persisting urgency for Europe to assist Ukraine, specifically in the area of anti-ballistic missile defense. It's not just that the Russian president is down to the kind of terror attacks we've seen frequently in recent months, it's also that Russia is increasing its production of cruise and ballistic missiles, making the terror option even more lethal for Ukrainians than it has been so far. Ukraine is getting better at hitting those production facilities, but in the area of defense, it can use all the help it can get, for example the French-Italian SMAP/T system, European help for the development of its own missile-defense system, and also still advocacy in Washington for the sale of Patriot systems to Europe on Kiyv's behalf. Success on the latter is a long shot, given the hole the American president has dug for himself in the Middle East. Let's hope that the other things were at the top of the agenda of discussions between the leaders Britain, Germany, France, and Ukraine this past weekend. As the analysis also emphasized, it's not just for Ukraine's sake that one would redouble these efforts, it's very much in the interest of the rest of Europe. More than ever, Ukraine's and Europe's security interests are intertwined.

June 6, 2026

Saturday. Left around 9:45. Blacksmith. Mild, never warm. Overcast, with light, sometimes moderate breezes from the south. Eventually the sun would peek through, but it never cleared. Sitting at Møs with the paper afterwards, there even came some light rain. Under the trees, the pavement was a bit damp here and there. On the Ruiterberg, it was still a little wet. De Bilt, around Zeist, toward and past Woudenberg. Moderately busy with other riders and families with kids. Along the Griftdijk, a donkey couple with a little one. Then toward and over the Amerongse Berg. Too many cars and trucks coming down. Wildflowers everywhere: red poppies, fox bells, others. The recent rain did all kinds of good. Right in Leersum, toward Ginkelduin, then on toward Maarsbergen. Wheat knee-high alongside the Ginkelseweg. A quiet Hoogstraat and a busy Ruiterberg, then Maarnse Grindweg, Maarn, and Quatre Bras. Back to the city and the Saturday paper at Møs. Analysis of the errand drone incidents in NATO countries near Ukraine and Russia. The picture is fuzzy, but the challenges for NATO no less real, especially, as another analysis discussed, since the U.S. contributions to the alliance's new response forces (built up after Russia's first attack on Ukraine in 2014) will be cut back. It's the new division of labor, where the other allies take greater responsibility for the conventional part of deterring Russia, while the U.S. maintains its nuclear portion. Not explored was the credibility of any U.S. commitment under the current administration. During the Cold War the question of whether the U.S. would really be willing to risk losing [choose your U.S. city] in order to defend [choose your European city] was real and ultimately unanswerable; in this day and age the answer may still not be an automatic "no," but we've gotten awfully close to that. Finally, some analysis of the letter sent by the Ukrainian president to his Russian colleague. To imagine the latter actually reading the whole thing is a good excercise in Putinology: we have to assume that normally, nobody in his own orbit talks about the war in the way the letter does. Perhaps nobody ever tells him these things, given how isolated the man has become. At some level, the contents must be profoundly disturbing for him, although for a man who prefers to deal with opponents through "rubbing them out in the outhouse," they could be a provocation also. Most likely, however, is that he did not read it. Too bad.

June 2, 2026

 Tuesday. Left at 9:35. Nikor. Tiny raindrops for the first minute or so. Overcast, with light and darker gray clouds. Light winds out of the southwest; fairly mild. Straatweg to Maarssen and ARK. Past the train station, the rain began. All fair-weather riders at home, just one woman in a SD Worx jersey coming south, from the looks of her, and her speed, a real deal. It rained the entire way to Javaplein, and then also on the part to the Bushuis. Busy on the canal, with some barges being pushed by tugboats at high speeds. Also several pleasure boats and other assembled smaller boats and platforms. Good smells from the wet, tall grasses before the Diem. Soaked and in the wind at Javaplein, so just a quick read-through of the paper. Headline of the Ukraine diary stating what is visible to all: the better Ukraine fares militarily, the more they suffer in Kiyv. And even if the American president wanted to supply more anti-ballistic missile technology--a big if--his reckless war on Iran has depleted stocks for months and months to come. And so the Russian president gets another unearned break. On to Bushuis. So many more turning cars on the Piet Heinkade than a decade ago. Today the cause was one of these obnoxious cruise ships offloading God knows how many passengers. In town, tourists on bikes, dressed for yesterday. It had stopped raining on the way back, and the winds had picked up. The sun came out for a little while. At some point, along the Vecht before Nieuwersluis, the wind seemed to be coming from the northeast. Amstel to a new Omval in the works. Then Abcouderpad past Abcoude. Baambrugge to Loenersloot--tall grasses providing some shelter from the wind in the big curve. Still very few people out. In Loenen, the old drawbridge was just going up, but the other one stayed down. Zandpad back to the detour at the Klopdijk. Skating route in reverse to get home.

May 31, 2026

Sunday. Left around 9:40. Blacksmith. Mostly sunny, warm,  light winds out of the northwest. Biltstraat to and through Berenkuil, toward Zeist. Utrechtseweg to Driebergseweg and Driebergen. A Sunday morning. Quiet everywhere, except for later, around Maarn, when the route overlapped with an event ride. No inevitable stops, in spite of some red lights. Doorn to Ruiterberg. Maarnse Grindweg to Maarn and Quatre Bras. Left and up, and back toward the detour at Zeist. De Bilt and Blauwkapelseweg to Biltse Rading and home. Romania was hit by a so-called errant Russian drone; also last week, we saw images of Lithuanian civilians in a bomb shelter: as Russia seems to test NATO credibility, there is not too much immediate action by the alliance. Alliance members do, of course, continue to support Ukraine, which remains the most important way to put pressure on the Kremlin. But beyond the big picture, where Russia is really not winning, eventually the question will have to be answered whether NATO can continue to shrug off Russian provocations through statements and little else. There must be ideas for a proportional counter-provocation near Kaliningrad, for example, just to let the Kremlin know that NATO really is capable of acting militarily. Or maybe there aren't, since it may well be impossible to get all 32 member states to commit to something like that, especially since the government of the most powerful (though not necessarily capable) member state wants to be friends with the man in the Kremlin. If counter-punching is, indeed, asking too much, the European member states instead had better invest heavily in anti-drone and anti-ballistic missile systems and sit tight. If they are lucky, Ukraine in the meantime will bring the Russian regime to its knees. If they continue to be lucky after that, perhaps Ukraine will then still be interested in military and other forms of cooperation. In such a case, Kiyv will hold a lot of cards, and if it has any sense, Europe will adjust its current positions on, for example, EU membership accordingly. Let's not hold our breath.

May 28, 2026

Thursday. Nederhorst den Berg. Started a little after eleven after a dip in the Spiegelplas. Nikor. The old commute, the old territory, on a glorious summer day. Sunny, warming up quickly to about 26 C, moderate winds out of the east. More expensive new houses in Nederhorst den Berg, now at the Reeweg. They don't look bad. The old estate on the east side of the Vecht, near Weesp, now also finished and inhabited, with a new structure next to it. It is the evidence backing up the recurring reports--for years now--of growing numbers of very wealthy people in this country (and, judging from election results, so many others aspiring to join their ranks). The developing back yards behind the new expensive mansions at the levee outside of Muiden are more evidence of this change: they all look different from each other, some are very far along, others almost barren, and in this they're a 2020s version of the garden plots that used to be there. Ten odd years ago, those users posted signs that they weren't going anywhere. But their plots are long gone, and it is anybody's guess where they went. IJburg to Javaplein and the newspaper. Ukrainian military now confirming that the tide is turning in the war, although also emphasizing that they're in no position to launch a major offensive. It's Russia that is faltering, and the theory (disproved for the Americans in Vietnam) is that Ukraine is killing and wounding Russian troops faster than Moscow can replace them. It is a fact that the Russian system (top-down, corrupt) is just not as adaptable as the people fighting for survival. The Ukrainian interviewed also suggested a time-line, at least for how things may go between the two militaries: Ukraine's new mobilization measures only will begin to produce results (more trained soldiers) some time next winter. It's not over by a long shot, unless someone manages to get to the Russian president, who, for his part, seems perfectly willing to escalate to the level of ballistic missile strikes on Ukrainian cities. Busy city to Bushuis. Return around six in classic summer evening conditions. From IJburg to Muiden in a small group of summer evening warriors. Then toward the Keverdijk and Nederhorst den Berg. Hay being baled in the Heintjesrak- en Broekerpolder to complete the picture.

May 24, 2026

 Sunday. Left at 8:30. Blacksmith. A very fine summer morning. Quiet, very mild, sunny, with light winds out of the northeast. Straatweg to Maarssen, then across and alongside the ARK. Some barge traffic, a river cruise liner. People out for their Sunday rides. Between Breukelen and Loenersloot the hedge helped with the little wind that was there. Quick look at the Nederhorst den Berg church spire before Nigtevecht. All trees are now in full leaf, and distant views and polluted horizons are much obscured. IJburg, Zeeburg, Zunderdorp, and Broek. Waterland--and everywhere else--lush: bike path borders full of tall grasses, wild flowers and weeds. Back by way of Poppendammergouw (with a section of pink concrete, of all bad ideas), Ransdorp. Then IJburg toward Muiden. A new bike path underneath the dike. No more looking over the water, but separating the walkers from the cyclists makes sense. The wealthy in Muiden are busy landscaping their large yards in search of privacy. Muiden to Keverdijk, nicely paved and clean these days. Then Ankeveen, Kwakel, Emmaweg, and Kerkelanden. More and more people on their bikes and out walking--of course. The entrance at the old municipal building-turned emergency shelter under guard, but quiet. The refugees have arrived, and the sky has not fallen. Loosdrecht going about its holiday business as always, but that's not news. In a field alongside the Korssesteeg a couple of swans with six chicks, from the looks of them just a few days old. In the news, more claims from Washington of an imminent deal with Teheran--like we've heard just about every week since the cease-fire, or even before. And Mexico has paid for the Wall. In Ukraine some indication of what a desperate Russian leadership may resort to, namely more and more violent terror bombing. Ukraine will hit back, and that will hurt, but whether it can win this kind of escalatory back-and-forth is very uncertain. 

May 23, 2026

Saturday. Left at ten. Blacksmith. Warm, sunny, light to moderate winds out of the southwest. A little maintenance. Singel to Koningsweg and Wayen. Goslings and baby goats. Langeweg to ARK and Plofsluis. There seem to be more insects than in recent years. Plenty of barges around the Beatrix locks, but one section reserved for pleasure boats. Vreeswijk to Jutphaas, then ARK to gele brug and Cycleworks. Weekend paper in the hot sun at Møs. Analysis of the recent NATO shenanigans of the U.S. administration. Combined with Moscow's provocations, they underline the urgency for concrete European steps--short-term and longer-term--to develop its own capabilities. As Russia will feel more besieged in its war against Ukraine, the chances increase for some desperate, provocative action against Ukraine's greatest supporters. Equally important as credible military options in such a case will be alliance coherence. Given Washington's current unreliability, in practice this will mean joint action by the other members. Regardless of the nature of the specific Russian provocation, addressing it will likely have to occur in conjunction with discussions (let's hope it will just be discussions) for an end to Russia's war against Ukraine. And so the temptation will arise to emphasize diplomacy before Moscow has been given an appropriate bloody nose (a proportional counter move to whatever form the provocation may take). The American president has managed, for all intents and purposes, to split the alliance, we may soon find out whether the political will exists in Europe to defend what's left of its credibility.

May 18, 2026

 Monday. Left at 10. Nikor (damp and wet roads underneath the trees from overnight rain; bricks, of course, mostly dry). Fairly mild, mostly overcast, with moderate winds out of the southwest. Biltse Rading, de Bilt, Bilthoven to Den Dolder and the trail. Outer route up the Amersfoortse Berg to Laan 1914 and Dodeweg. Then for something new, around Leusden: Heiligerbergerweg and Driftakkerweg. Bike path to Horsterweg. Into the other world. Stoutenburg. In Achterveld, rain. Back toward Leusden, then Kanaalweg to Langesteeg, Hamersveldseweg, and De Mof. Back through De Treek, Trekerweg, and a detour past lots of money in Zeist. Another shower just before the city. Paper at Møs. Russia and Ukraine look a bit like exhausted heavyweights trying to land as many punches as possible before the bell. There have been some signs that Moscow may be looking for a way out, and the Ukrainian president has urged the EU to select a point person in case negotiations get underway. We'll surely have to wait until the Russian president completes his visit to Beijing. And even though one can't rely on Washington these days in European security matters, the U.S. will surely have to be at the table too if talks get organized, if only because Moscow will need a friend there. Let's hope the White House will send a couple of businessmen, they always cut the best peace deals--and fast.

May 16, 2026

Saturday. Nikor (some damp patches in isolated places; possibility of showers). On the cool side, partly cloudy, breezy out of the west. Westside of the Vecht out of town, to Op Buuren, Zuilensebrug, Maarssenbroek. Detour in Vleuten through fantasyland. Haarrijnse plas, Rijneveldsebospad, past Haarzuilens. Yarrow and yellow flowers seemingly everywhere. Still some just-born lambs here and there. Nature path to Laag Nieuwkoop and Hollandse Kade. Just one bike there, all the way to the Houtdijkerpad. Right, to Woerden, then left to Cattenbroekerdijk. Yellow-clad group approaching from the right (Linschoten), then behind. Montfoort, Achthoven, and Zuid IJsseldijk (eventually, the group to the right, headed for IJsselstein). Meerlopad and bridge to Nedereindseweg, Merwedekanaal, and Møs. In the paper analysis of the Beijing summit. The American president so wants to be friends with the powerful Chinese dictator that, apparently, he discussed possible U.S. arms sales to Taiwan with his Chinese colleague. That's unprecedented in the history of U.S.-PRC relations, but for this U.S. president it hardly surprising. In Europe, there's the EU and even NATO (with or without Washington), in East Asia, traditional U.S. allies better organize something too. 

May 14, 2026

 Thursday. Left around 2:30. Nikor, but it was dry everywhere, just a little damp pavement under the trees in Driebergen. Cool, mostly cloudy skies, moderate winds out of the north. Around the Jaarbeurs to Merwedekanaal, Oog in Al, and ARK. East side of ARK to Plofsluis, then the other side to Elpad and Kaaiweg. A holiday, although on the canal enough barges for a regular work day. Young families out for a little bike ride. From Schalkwijk through the fields back to the ARK. Quiet stretch to Goyerbrug. Nachtdijk into the wind to Watertorenweg and Zuwe. No farm vehicles, but plenty of ryegrass. Toward Driebergen, past the Hondspol, a few cows in a small field with high grass and buttercups. Arnhemse Bovenweg to Zeist, and back to the city. 

May 10, 2026

 Sunday. Left a little after ten. Blacksmith. Partly cloudy. A fairly stiff wind out of the north made it feel a little cool, but the day could still pass for a Dutch summer day. Blauwkapel, Groenekan, Maartensdijk, Hollandse Rading. Why wouldn't people be out on a fine morning such as this. Past the airfield and the angry signs at the former Loosdrecht municipal building. Kerkelanden and across a quiet Hilversums Kanaal. Emmaweg, Kerklaan, and Kortenhoefsedijk. Folks in the water at the Wijde Blick beach, standing in a circle. Zuwe to Vreeland. Spoorlaan to Kerklaan, then across the ARK to the Angstelkade, a road where hardly anybody goes. More tailwind along the ARK to Lage Weide. Gele brug back into town. 

May 9, 2026

Saturday. Left at ten. Blacksmith. Cloudless skies, gradually becoming partly cloudy. Mild, with moderate easterly winds. Marsdijk, Achterdijk, Werkhoven. Perennial ryegrass and little else, other than giant farm vehicles everywhere. Hollendewagenweg to Caspergouw. Scooter the last bit to Dwarsdijk. Kapellenweg, across a quiet ARK. Lekdijk fairly quiet, although the motorcycles are definitely back. River calm and beautiful. Few if any boats. Sluispad to Jutphaas (another scooter), and back into the city to Møs. Pictures later of the Russian president at the victory parade. He does, indeed, look old and frail now, worn down. How could he not be. It doesn't make him less dangerous to the outside world, or his own people, although to some in his orbit (nobody thinks things are going well) he may look more vulnerable. 

May 7, 2026

Thursday. Left around 10:15. Blacksmith. Start of the app-less era, because when the tools become so important as to determine success or failure, things have gone out of proportion. Blue skies with some white clouds in the distance, slowly coming in from the south. Light winds out of the northeast. Fairly mild. Getting underway, school kids tossing an empty can onto the street--early dissonant. Yellow bridge to Alendorp and Rivierpad. Full-on spring, with grasses and wildflowers thriving, mowing underway, fat lambs and only a few little ones. A grebe nesting at Gerverscop. Lots of birdsong from Scheendijk to Veenkade and beyond. Trekking cyclists, and the other kinds. A stop at Møs [it's just a matter of keeping the "o" pressed down to get the options] and the paper. In the news growing evidence that the Russian regime, particularly its president, is losing its grip. Apparently Russians are withdrawing large amounts of cash. This comes on top of the extreme security measures surrounding the annual World War II victory parade, and the earlier news on how security around the president himself has been tightened. The man's options seem to be down to various desperate measures, which by no means are imaginary: the threatened massive strike on downtown Kyiv, for example. But there are other targets in Ukraine, and the Russian military has options not yet used, even short of nuclear weapons. And the western neighbors are right to worry about some provocation, or worse, in their direction--it's a real question if NATO is ready, militarily or politically. Who can get into the Russian president's head to know how he views his predicament? We're getting closer to finding out what happens when a nuclear-armed regime gets in a desperate position. It's the kind of thing you never want to experience, and perhaps it can still be avoided. But who does one address in Moscow to indicate that there may be a way forward after this war concludes and Ukraine preserves its independence? And exactly who might "one" be to Russia's West? The current regime in Washington? Even if it wanted to find a way out acceptable for Kyiv, where is its credibility? Alternatively, "Europe" once again does not seem ready to speak credibly and with a single voice. By process of elimination, it seems Ukraine itself would be most suited. Not only is it gaining the upper hand in the war, as a close relative to the Russians it would potentially have the most impact if it was able to convey that, provided its independence is respected fully and some way is found for Russia to make amends for what it has inflicted on Ukraine and its people, peaceful coexistence should be possible. What would also need to happen, and no outsider can influence, is a Russia no longer seeing itself as an empire but instead reformed to an extent where self-determination or autonomy for peoples outside or even within its borders no longer can be construed as a threat to Russia itself. So we're back, and much closer, to where the exit always was to be found: a new leadership in Moscow, a new outlook on itself and the world in Russia at large. The Soviet Union miraculously ended peacefully and with a whimper; whether we'll get lucky twice in a row is not guaranteed by any means.

April 27, 2026

 Monday. Left around 10:15. Blacksmith. Cool under a thin cloud cover, with light winds out of the northeast. A national holiday, so around the towns and their festivities. Berenkuil to the crossing before Zeist. Bos en Duin and around Den Dolder to the trail along the train tracks. Very quiet everywhere. Across the tracks and into the woods (more quiet), then Wieksloterweg and the concrete trail back to the main train tracks running toward Amersfoort. Before Amersfoort left into the woods, coming out at the Korte Duinen. Lots of logs piled up; it's not nature, it's a managed landscape. More people there. Right toward Amersfoort, then left toward the Hilhorstweg. Thick grass and some wildflowers alongside, together with the suddenly wide views. Tempting there just to go and go. Instead a left and across the Eng. Then left toward Wieksloterweg to avoid a fair on the Julianalaan. Wieksloterweg, Embranchementsweg, Maartensdijk (nothing), and the trail through the fields with the Dom up ahead. Along the last section of the trail, the willows have been cut down all the way to the ground. They'll probably be back before summer's end. 

April 25, 2026

Left around 10:30. Cool but sunny, light winds out of the north. Spring now everywhere. Goose chicks in a field at Wayen, a hare alongside the Langeweg, green everywhere, and only a few blossoms left. Sluispad and Schipperspad and the world of the big barges (oil and gas especially). On the way to the Jutphase brug, the whole world appeared to be riding a bike. Before the bridge the trail alongside the ARK with sirens chasing climate protesters. Gele brug into town. Two major wars, and a number of smaller but no less deadly ones. For now and superficially observed, life in this city goes on undisturbed. 

April 11, 2026

Saturday. Left at 9:54. Blacksmith. On the cool side, but it gradually got milder. Gray skies, with a thin layer on top and some smaller clouds below. The thin layer allowed the sun to push through enough to create some shadow along the way. Fairly stiff southerly winds. Saturday traffic on the way out of town by way of the Gele brug, and the same in the suburbs and the Rivierpad. We're deep into early spring now, with whites, yellows, pinks, and lots of variations of green everywhere, today contrasting starkly against the gray skies. Lots of little lambs, but no waterfowl chicks anywhere, and no waterfowl nesting either. Grass already being cut--by a farmer along the Rivierpad, and in a private yard at the start of Gerverscop. From Gerverscop now, with the leaves returning to the trees, only the Vleuten church visible. However, coming off the Schutterskade and turning toward Portengen to the right in the far distance the highrises of Amsterdam. How far is it really, from the farthest point of Zuidoost to the northermost point of Breukelen (which along the train tracks might as well still be Utrecht)? And yet, hardly anybody between Gerverscop and Kockengen. Some boating traffic has returned at Gunterstein. Nothing much happening along the Veenkade or the rest of the way home, to Mos, though various wildflowers alongside the bike path at the Strook. In the paper the interesting suggestion by the Ukrainian president for a new European security arrangement no longer (how could it) relying on the U.S. but instead being organized by the EU with the essential additions of Norway, Turkey, the UK, and, indeed, Ukraine. We don't have to abolish NATO, or even have any member state leave, if only because both Europe and the U.S. stand to lose much from a formal rupture. Even the current administration seems to understand this. Still, for the foreseeable future it would be irresponsible for European governments to consider Washington a reliable friend. The current administration (elected by a majority of the electorate), while an ally on paper, clearly is quite hostile. The best that can be achieved in the coming years is keeping the transatlantic relationship on ice and avoiding any direct confrontation, for example over Greenland. And in the meantime, the EU can elevate security cooperation to the top of the list of its emerging reform agenda. Not that it is easy to figure out how to integrate non-members with EU initiatives probably not endorsed by all member states, but it needs to be done anyway. It's not that the Russian military menace is so great right now--the same paper reports that Moscow is now recruiting cannon fodder at its universities. That's the war coming home for Russian middle and upper classes. Scraping the bottom of the recruitment barrel. But it is still a big deal that, for all intents and purposes, and for the first time since the Second World War, the United States can no longer be seen as an integral part of the defense of Europe. This is just what Soviet and Russian leaders have tried to achieve since 1947. Something credible will have to take its place, and we might as well start with the Ukrainian president's idea; we might as well begin by acknowledging that, for all its hardship, Ukraine is becoming an important ally, and not just a neighbor with its back against the wall. 

April 8, 2026

 Wednesday. Left 9:50. Blacksmith. Sunny, mild, moderate winds out of the east. Through the Berenkuil toward Zeist. Around town to the Tiendweg, then Driebergen. Akkerweg to Zuwe and Caspergouw. Rows of light green willow trees. The little fruit trees are beginning to blossom also. Dwarsdijk and Kapelleweg. Across a quiet ARK to the Lekdijk. Sun, peace, more and more cows, and lots of little lambs. Back by way of Plofsluis, Jutphase brug, Merwedekanaal. Mos with today's paper, which closed too early for the news about the truce in the Middle East, but lots of people have pointed out how little has been achieved, given the cost for all involved. The question remains whether, in the face of a criminal, fundamentalist regime such as the one in Teheran, a five-week bombing campaign works better than a sophisticated strategy of containment. The regime is still there, even if much diminished in its capabilities. What America has become under this administration at least has been on full display, as it is currently in Hungary, where the vice-president is openly campaigning for the authoritarian friend of Moscow. Speaking of Moscow: another piece in the same paper confirmed earlier impressions of a possible shift in the balance of power in the war. Apparently, Ukraine has regained some territory in the past two months while Russia has more and more trouble to replace its dead and wounded (a staggering 85,000 in the first three months of 2026). The same article also reported on how, in a recent exercise, some regular NATO units were quickly dispatched by a Ukrainian unit using its drone-based systems. Another confirmation of what we saw in recent weeks when the Ukrainian president visited Gulf nations: acquired the hard way, Ukraine's drone capabilities (both defensive and offensive) are now at the cutting edge of what makes a difference on the modern battlefield. In the not-too-distant future Europe may need Ukraine more than the other way around. Lots of things need to happen--and could still go wrong--before we really get there, but our world is already very different from the one we had just two years ago. 

April 5, 2026

 Easter Sunday. Left a little before 10:30. Blacksmith. Mostly cloudy skies, with many layers and shades of white and gray, and space for some blue, more so as time went on. Fairly stiff winds out of the northwest made it on the chilly side. Overvecht and Klopdijk to Gageldijk, Herenweg, and Maarssen. People out, but not the usual Sunday groups. Maarssen ARK bridge, then left to Zuylensebrug. Toward Oud Zuilen, but back to the Straatweg, to the Deka brug with its inadequate way up. Empty ARK as seen from the top. Lage Weide deserted, first going north, then south toward the Gele Brug. Past the coffee corner a little bit along the Merwedekanaal, and into Oog in Al. Daphne Schippersbrug, then left toward the De Meernbrug. A bit of ARK to, under, and up the Prins Clausbrug and the alienation of Papendorp. Jutphasebrug into Laagraven and the headwind up the Nieuwegeinsebrug. Plofsluis was the tenth crossing. Home by way of Wayen, Lunetten station, and Singel. In the news more reports of Ukraine hitting Russian oil refinery and shipment installations. This should make Moscow's ability to wage war more difficult while also complicating economic conditions in the country at large. How, or if, this will also cause the regime to give up on at least some of its war aims, is much less certain, but it certainly can't hurt. Same with political turmoil--in the country (not so likely) or in power circles (perhaps more realistic). It can't be ruled out that if this keeps up, eventually the battlefield will be affected also, as in no more Russian advances, and perhaps retreats here and there. The current leader may never yield at the negotiating table or anywhere else; but if others get the feeling he's taking the whole ship down with him, it could be time for a forced retirement, a new leadership and, presumably, a way out of this horror.

April 1, 2026

Wednesday. Left around 9:15. Nikor. Cool, clouds in all kinds of shapes at various altitudes. Some blue and some sun. Light winds out of the south. Straatweg to Maarssen, then ARK. Almost the whole way up to Amsterdam light raindrops, never enough to wet the pavement or anything else. But they were there, as were, at the same time, shadows. Quiet on the levee, crews on the boats busy with hoses and other tools. Spires of Nederhorst den Berg to the right after Loenersloot.A barge coming through at Driemond. Company until the Uylanderbrug. Coffee at the Javaplein. In the paper the good news that Ukraine is hitting Russia's oil port and refinery on the Gulf of Finland hard, interrupting exports. Unnamed allies have asked Kiyv not to do this now, since less Russian oil reaching world markets means even higher prices. Tough. Ukraine is fighting for survival, and there are indications that life in Russia is getting ever harder because of the war. The more disruption the better, and whatever disruption our part of the world has to deal with as a by-product pales in comparison to what Ukrainians have had to deal with the past couple of years. On to the Bushuis. The city is getting awfully busy already. Return trip in milder weather, at least toward the end, when the sun came out more. Magere Brug, Omval (nothing left), Weesperzijde, Duivendrecht, and Abcouderpad. School kids and others on fat bikes. Past Abcoude to the Indijkweg along the tracks. Baambrugge and the magnificent bend. Loenersloot to Loenen. Lambs everywhere, but no baby waterfowl. Rapeseed abundant  now. Vecht with its reinforced shoreline, all the way into the city, headwind the whole way.

March 29, 2026

Sunday. Left a little after eleven (daylight savings time). Nikor. Just a little bit of damp pavement left from yesterday's showers. On the chilly side with partial sun. Decent clouds, but mid-day light. Moderate winds out of the west. De Bilt and Den Dolder, and the railroad trail to Amersfoort. Lots of people using the newly widened trail out of Amersfoort. Belgian way up the hill, then down Vondellaan and up again by way of Balilaan, Arubalaan, and Genestetlaan. Late in the morning, but the city still very quiet. The cooler weather seems to have slowed down the emergence of blossoms and buds, although tulips are now a common sight. Down Laan 1914 and on toward Leusden Zuid and de Treek. Headwinds made it cool. Up Treekerweg, also with Sunday walkers. Down the Traaij to Arnhemse Bovenweg, roundabout to Driebergseweg, and eventually left onto the Bunsinglaan toward Bunnik. From Bunnik back to the city by way of Amelisweerd. In the news, more reports on how, after four weeks of war already, the White House and Pentagon have now given themselves the option of ground operations in Iran. And what an option it is. One wonders what will be next if, after employing troops somewhere, the Islamist regime still doesn't collapse or the Straits of Hormuz remain too dangerous for most shipping. Looking at who is in charge in Washington, it can't be good for anyone, except that it may give extra impetus for U.S. allies in Europe and Asia to make themselves less dependent on Washington and on fossil fuels. Whether that's good for those European and Asian countries remains to be seen, but the fact that its allies around the world are giving up on the U.S. where they can afford to surely isn't good for America.

March 27, 2026

Friday. Left around ten. Blacksmith. Overcast, but not solid, interesting-looking layers of gray with space for the sun occasionally. Fairly chilly winds out of the south. Koningsweg to Wayen. Langeweg around Heemskerk and the golf course, then Plofsluis. Some golfers, some riders. ARK on the bricks. Schalkwijk spire up ahead. Bricks are good, bad bricks yield even less traffic. Nobody until the turn-off onto the Elpad. Colors on the Kaaidijk toward Schalkwijk, then right toward the Achterdijk. More colors, some traffic. Groeneweg to Lekdijk. The dike quiet, the river even more so. Lots of lambs at a farm past the fort. Strijpweg, Waalweg, Beatrixsluis, and Vreeswijk. Tailwind alongside the canals, all the way to the Gele Brug. Into the city to Mos. In the news the latest ultimatum before Iran's energy infrastructure will get hit. Another delay, which could mean that bombing, or some kind of invasion, could happen any day now. Lacking interest in expert knowledge on the country and the regime, and with partners urging you to do their bidding, how could we not get an outcome soon heralding a more benign future for the region and the world? 

March 26, 2026

 Thursday. Left ten minutes to ten. Nikor. On the cold side, with sun and showers. Moderate winds out of the northwest. Blauwkapel, and by the side of the road a goose with five chicks. Ruygenhoek, and past the swimming area the stark line of small trees on the driveway to the farm on the right. There and all the way to Egelshoek the interaction of the white and gray clouds, the blue, and the light. In Westbroek, people still feel victimized. On the extension of the Korssesteeg a dark gray cloud over Nieuw Loosdrecht with a lighter, dome-shaped area right over the church. Rain and hail after Egelshoek. Maartensdijk wet asphalt, but the sun coming back. Turning onto the Lindenlaan, the bricks have been leveled out. Groenekan to de Bilt. The colors and the light on the Kerklaan glorious. Berenkuil into the city and Mos. In the paper a discussion of the NATO secretary general's juggling of European misgivings and U.S. expectations of support, and a report on how in Spain the German Chancellor has been criticized for not criticizing the U.S. president's criticism of Spain's criticism of the war. All that needs to, and can, be managed. One has to hope that the same can be said of those other bits of news, regarding Ukraine: increasing U.S. pressure on Kyiv to cede territory to Russia, and a potential dearth of supplies for Ukraine because of the war on Iran. Ukraine, and Europe, is mostly on its own. The good news is that Russia's new spring offensive seems to have stalled the moment it was launched.

March 23, 2026

Monday. Left 9:45. Blacksmith. On the chilly side, somewhat hazy, but sun. Light winds out of the northeast. Through the city to the Merwedekanaal. The world busy with the working week. Schipperspad to Vreeswijk and Lekdijk. Beyond Klein Scheveningen everything peaceful. Birdsong. Lopik to Polsbroekerdam and Oudewater. Lambs along Snelrewaard, and maybe a baby goat. Early spring coming into its own, with blossoms, forsythia, and more and more light green everywhere. Weeping willows especially beautiful now. Montfoort, Harmelen, and de Meern back into the city, to Mos. In the paper election news: populists failing to break through in large French cities, and in Slovenia, but gaining significantly in Germany. Interesting report on an emigration fair over here: all kinds of people (a growing number coming from two native-born Dutch parents) not liking it here any more, for example because the government keeps sending our money to wars that don't concern us. Imagine that: you can't or won't stay in your own country anymore, and another country lets you in, also if you're just looking for a better life. If your favorite populist turns out to be a snake oil salesman, the lucky people in this part of the world still have the option of going elsewhere. 

March 21, 2026

Saturday. We left Swift/Leiden by 9:30. Blacksmith. Chilly and damp. Some lingering fog, light winds out of the northeast. After a bit alongside the Vliet, the route led south to Stompwijk, Benthuizen, and the Benthout park. Then zig-zag to Boskoop and its growers. When it was still gray, the blossoms and light green, not to mention the forsythia, stood out very well. Past Alphen toward Papenveer and the break. Joop. Then Nieuwkoop, Noorden, and the Achterweg to Vrouwenakker, now with the sun warming things up. Tailwind alongside the Amstel-Drechtkanaal and on, back to Papenveer. Woubrugge and the north side of Alphen--narrow and crowded, all the way to Hazerswoude-Rijndijk. Back to Leiden just south of the freeway in full spring weather. In the Gulf, the enemy keeps fighting back, as so many scenarios the past decades have predicted. The commander-in-chief is flailing wildly, now that his recklessness and the incompetence of his team are on broad display. Israel keeps getting hit too, three weeks into this. The air campaign is inconclusive, a ground operation spells quagmire. It'a quagmire regardless, and it seems a good deal worse for just about everyone than the containment of the previous decades. Not that the boss will ever own any of the bad news. He could still double down again. Thus, the best outcome seems to be a declaration of victory that leaves the Islamist regime in place, although now probably fully determined to build a nuclear device and test it. Nothing connected to the Iran challenge was ever simple or without risk, but the past three weeks have shown that it was certainly possible to make things worse. Also unmistakable--and far from new--is that depending for your well-being on petrostates, wherever they may be located, is a bad idea. Perhaps more Europeans understand this now, although some of the talk of reconciling with Russia makes one wonder. At the very least the obfuscating, so-called "realist," warnings that we'll be depending on fossil fuels for a long time to come may be seen as the recipe it has always been for doing too little, too late on an energy transition.