April 11, 2026

Saturday. Left at 9:54. Blacksmith. On the cool side, but it gradually got milder. Gray skies, with a thin layer on top and some smaller clouds below. The thin layer allowed the sun to push through enough to create some shadow along the way. Fairly stiff southerly winds. Saturday traffic on the way out of town by way of the Gele brug, and the same in the suburbs and the Rivierpad. We're deep into early spring now, with whites, yellows, pinks, and lots of variations of green everywhere, today contrasting starkly against the gray skies. Lots of little lambs, but no waterfowl chicks anywhere, and no waterfowl nesting either. Grass already being cut--by a farmer along the Rivierpad, and in a private yard at the start of Gerverscop. From Gerverscop now, with the leaves returning to the trees, only the Vleuten church visible. However, coming off the Schutterskade and turning toward Portengen to the right in the far distance the highrises of Amsterdam. How far is it really, from the farthest point of Zuidoost to the northermost point of Breukelen (which along the train tracks might as well still be Utrecht)? And yet, hardly anybody between Gerverscop and Kockengen. Some boating traffic has returned at Gunterstein. Nothing much happening along the Veenkade or the rest of the way home, to Mos, though various wildflowers alongside the bike path at the Strook. In the paper the interesting suggestion by the Ukrainian president for a new European security arrangement no longer (how could it) relying on the U.S. but instead being organized by the EU with the essential additions of Norway, Turkey, the UK, and, indeed, Ukraine. We don't have to abolish NATO, or even have any member state leave, if only because both Europe and the U.S. stand to lose much from a formal rupture. Even the current administration seems to understand this. Still, for the foreseeable future it would be irresponsible for European governments to consider Washington a reliable friend. The current administration (elected by a majority of the electorate), while an ally on paper, clearly is quite hostile. The best that can be achieved in the coming years is keeping the transatlantic relationship on ice and avoiding any direct confrontation, for example over Greenland. And in the meantime, the EU can elevate security cooperation to the top of the list of its emerging reform agenda. Not that it is easy to figure out how to integrate non-members with EU initiatives probably not endorsed by all member states, but it needs to be done anyway. It's not that the Russian military menace is so great right now--the same paper reports that Moscow is now recruiting cannon fodder at its universities. That's the war coming home for Russian middle and upper classes. Scraping the bottom of the recruitment barrel. But it is still a big deal that, for all intents and purposes, and for the first time since the Second World War, the United States can no longer be seen as an integral part of the defense of Europe. This is just what Soviet and Russian leaders have tried to achieve since 1947. Something credible will have to take its place, and we might as well start with the Ukrainian president's idea; we might as well begin by acknowledging that, for all its hardship, Ukraine is becoming an important ally, and not just a neighbor with its back against the wall. 

April 8, 2026

 Wednesday. Left 9:50. Blacksmith. Sunny, mild, moderate winds out of the east. Through the Berenkuil toward Zeist. Around town to the Tiendweg, then Driebergen. Akkerweg to Zuwe and Caspergouw. Rows of light green willow trees. The little fruit trees are beginning to blossom also. Dwarsdijk and Kapelleweg. Across a quiet ARK to the Lekdijk. Sun, peace, more and more cows, and lots of little lambs. Back by way of Plofsluis, Jutphase brug, Merwedekanaal. Mos with today's paper, which closed too early for the news about the truce in the Middle East, but lots of people have pointed out how little has been achieved, given the cost for all involved. The question remains whether, in the face of a criminal, fundamentalist regime such as the one in Teheran, a five-week bombing campaign works better than a sophisticated strategy of containment. The regime is still there, even if much diminished in its capabilities. What America has become under this administration at least has been on full display, as it is currently in Hungary, where the vice-president is openly campaigning for the authoritarian friend of Moscow. Speaking of Moscow: another piece in the same paper confirmed earlier impressions of a possible shift in the balance of power in the war. Apparently, Ukraine has regained some territory in the past two months while Russia has more and more trouble to replace its dead and wounded (a staggering 85,000 in the first three months of 2026). The same article also reported on how, in a recent exercise, some regular NATO units were quickly dispatched by a Ukrainian unit using its drone-based systems. Another confirmation of what we saw in recent weeks when the Ukrainian president visited Gulf nations: acquired the hard way, Ukraine's drone capabilities (both defensive and offensive) are now at the cutting edge of what makes a difference on the modern battlefield. In the not-too-distant future Europe may need Ukraine more than the other way around. Lots of things need to happen--and could still go wrong--before we really get there, but our world is already very different from the one we had just two years ago. 

April 5, 2026

 Easter Sunday. Left a little before 10:30. Blacksmith. Mostly cloudy skies, with many layers and shades of white and gray, and space for some blue, more so as time went on. Fairly stiff winds out of the northwest made it on the chilly side. Overvecht and Klopdijk to Gageldijk, Herenweg, and Maarssen. People out, but not the usual Sunday groups. Maarssen ARK bridge, then left to Zuylensebrug. Toward Oud Zuilen, but back to the Straatweg, to the Deka brug with its inadequate way up. Empty ARK as seen from the top. Lage Weide deserted, first going north, then south toward the Gele Brug. Past the coffee corner a little bit along the Merwedekanaal, and into Oog in Al. Daphne Schippersbrug, then left toward the De Meernbrug. A bit of ARK to, under, and up the Prins Clausbrug and the alienation of Papendorp. Jutphasebrug into Laagraven and the headwind up the Nieuwegeinsebrug. Plofsluis was the tenth crossing. Home by way of Wayen, Lunetten station, and Singel. In the news more reports of Ukraine hitting Russian oil refinery and shipment installations. This should make Moscow's ability to wage war more difficult while also complicating economic conditions in the country at large. How, or if, this will also cause the regime to give up on at least some of its war aims, is much less certain, but it certainly can't hurt. Same with political turmoil--in the country (not so likely) or in power circles (perhaps more realistic). It can't be ruled out that if this keeps up, eventually the battlefield will be affected also, as in no more Russian advances, and perhaps retreats here and there. The current leader may never yield at the negotiating table or anywhere else; but if others get the feeling he's taking the whole ship down with him, it could be time for a forced retirement, a new leadership and, presumably, a way out of this horror.

April 1, 2026

Wednesday. Left around 9:15. Nikor. Cool, clouds in all kinds of shapes at various altitudes. Some blue and some sun. Light winds out of the south. Straatweg to Maarssen, then ARK. Almost the whole way up to Amsterdam light raindrops, never enough to wet the pavement or anything else. But they were there, as were, at the same time, shadows. Quiet on the levee, crews on the boats busy with hoses and other tools. Spires of Nederhorst den Berg to the right after Loenersloot.A barge coming through at Driemond. Company until the Uylanderbrug. Coffee at the Javaplein. In the paper the good news that Ukraine is hitting Russia's oil port and refinery on the Gulf of Finland hard, interrupting exports. Unnamed allies have asked Kiyv not to do this now, since less Russian oil reaching world markets means even higher prices. Tough. Ukraine is fighting for survival, and there are indications that life in Russia is getting ever harder because of the war. The more disruption the better, and whatever disruption our part of the world has to deal with as a by-product pales in comparison to what Ukrainians have had to deal with the past couple of years. On to the Bushuis. The city is getting awfully busy already. Return trip in milder weather, at least toward the end, when the sun came out more. Magere Brug, Omval (nothing left), Weesperzijde, Duivendrecht, and Abcouderpad. School kids and others on fat bikes. Past Abcoude to the Indijkweg along the tracks. Baambrugge and the magnificent bend. Loenersloot to Loenen. Lambs everywhere, but no baby waterfowl. Rapeseed abundant  now. Vecht with its reinforced shoreline, all the way into the city, headwind the whole way.