August 19, 2026

Thursday (and KU arrival day, 1988). Left at 9:51. Nikor, because a chance of a shower. Mostly cloudy, many different, still mostly white clouds everywhere, also room for the sun. Moderate winds out of the west. Damp pavement here and there, but otherwise dry. Gele brug to 't Zand and Alendorp, Rivierpad. Suburbs still looking dry, in spite of the recent showers. Breudijk to Gerverscop, where it was green and quiet. Rodendijk and Wagendijk. The views. Alongside the latter also a newly erupted stretch of poppies and other wildflowers. Schutterskade, then left toward Zuideinde. There, Eendracht sighting (Onno). The views north from the Groote Heicop; cows down below in the land behind the canal. Breukelen and Gunterstein, then Scheendijk and Strook. All fairly quiet as more gray clouds appeared in the west. Bethuneweg, Herenweg, Oud Zuilen, and Møs. AD with two stories on Ukraine. The arrest of a second suspect in the 2022 Nordstream explosion. Germany is prosecuting, while continuing its support for Kyiv. Also a report on a new corruption case (and dismissal) close to the Ukrainian president, this when the open challenge to the president by the former defense minister (his call for elections) still resonates. And, in other news, last night the bigger Russian attack on Kyiv we could have seen coming. Ukraine has hit another Russian oil depot and refinery, Russia is now importing fuel, and reportedly Russians are withdrawing their money from the banks, in fears of government confiscation. Domestically on both sides, things are deteriorating, and meanwhile Rumania has had to strike and destroy a marine drone armed with explosives which was headed for one of its oil fields, currently under construction. And Moscow has warned London of unspecified consequences for Ukraine's use of one of its drones. Every month, NATO countries are pulled in a little further, without much awareness of this among the public. Since Ukraine's needs are only growing, and both sides are escalating, it is high time that European leaders go beyond the EU Commission president's warnings to Russia about its escalation; it is high time that the public gets told directly that there's a war going on and we're in it. Two drivers ignored the do-not-enter sign during the half hour at Møs (one more as I rolled home), and during that time the first shower also arrived. 

August 16, 2026

 Sunday. Left at 9:30. Blacksmith. A new test for the knee. Mild, sunny, but the sky full of stretched out white clouds. Light winds from what appeared to be the northeast. Berenkuil to de Bilt and around Zeist. Under the trees, the pavement still damp sporadically from yesterday's rains. Otherwise, little evidence of that rain, although without it, it would probably have been a lot more dusty in the woods. Sunday riders out in force. Past Woudenberg and Griftdijk, Haarweg. The by now usual picture of stunted corn near the more fully-grown kind, cut fields partially yellow, trees and bushes apparently in survival mode. Not too much motorized traffic on the Amerongseberg. Back up in Leersum, toward and past Ginkelduin. Pretty quiet also, until the Haarweg running alongside the closed freeway, where there was notably more car traffic than usual. Hoogstraat, Ruiterberg, Zeisterweg to the top. No power, but the knee seemed to be holding up. Back around Zeist to de Bilt and Møs. Yesterday's AD, where they don't really cover the world. In other news, reports on various Russian strikes on Ukrainian targets, and Ukrainian strikes on sites in Russia. In greater Ukraine, Russia seems to hit mostly civilian infrastructure, but in the Donbas (Kramatorsk and Slovajansk) the bombing supports military aims, which seem to be coming into view, given that there, too, Ukraine mostly lacks defensive means against Russian air assaults. For its part, Ukraine seems to be hitting all kinds of sites essential for Russia's war, which may explain why the current Russian attacks aren't as large as feared. Today perhaps the largest drone attack on the Moscow region of the entire war, while the Kremlin faces growing difficulty in recruiting enough men for military service (in lots of cases the equivalent of a well-paid premature death). There is growing speculation over a new, national mobilization, which surely will cause a new mass-flight, which for its part could also further weaken Russia's war economy. If Ukraine's strategy is supposed to pressure Russian elites finally to take a stand against the president, his people, and his war agenda, it's perhaps better that NATO continues to respond in a low-key way to Russian drone incursions, as last night over Rumania. A firmer response--against Kaliningrad, for example--could have the effect of rallying Russia's elites around the Kremlin; it would confirm the Russian president's line of being faced with an aggressive, hostile alliance. Hostile, let's hope so; aggressive not so much. In the thirty-odd minutes on the bench, two or three drivers ignoring the do-not enter sign at the Kievitstraat.

August 12, 2026

Wednesday. Left a little after ten. Blacksmith. Warm, not yet hot. Blue skies with blown-apart contrails and other white smudges. Moderate winds out of the east. Singel (neighborly chat) to Koningsweg and Wayen. At the Langeweg, one patch of stunted corn, followed by one where the crop looked normal. ARK with some fast-moving barges. One farm outside of Houten where they still find it necessary to run the sprinklers on the grass alongside their driveway. Schalkwijk bridge, then dead-ending into some roadwork on the kanaaldijk. The town of Schalkwijk. One modern windmill visible in the distance next to the church. The time is long past to worry about those kinds of things. Lange Uitweg to Lekdijk. A guy using a high-pressure hose to clean between the bricks at the end of his driveway. People seeking direct sun in the recreational area behind Tull en 't Waal. Lots of activity on the canal in front of the Beatrixsluizen. Barges and pleasure boats in line, other barges pushing off to join. It must still be possible to navigate west on the Lek. Jutphaas back to ARK and Gele brug. More river cruise ships moored than normal, probably because these really can't use their normal routes, such as the Rhine river. Into the city and Møs. Drought and solar eclipse news in the paper (AD), along with the story about the American president's double plane switch after the recent NATO summit in Turkey. There are many angles to this story, but one perhaps not discussed explicitly enough is Tehran's determination to take the fight to the enemy. This is not unprovoked by any means, but perhaps more significantly, it suggests that the regime's interest in a peaceful outcome to the war is low, just like its concern for the well-being of its population. A U.S. response to a successful attack on the president's plane is too horrible to contemplate, and yet, elements of the Iranian regime apparently worked hard to make such a strike possible. During the half-hour or so on the Kievitstraat side, three or four drivers violated the do-not-enter sign without so much as batting an eye. 

August 10, 2026

Monday. Left a few minutes before ten. Blacksmith. Sunny; not warm, not cool; moderate breezes out of the northwest. Clouds in the distance, especially to the north. City getting back to work, though still quiet. Around the Jaarbeurs to Oog in Al, across the ARK to Groenedijk. Burgemeester Middelweerdbaan and Landschapsbaan, eventually Zandpad. Then Heldamweg to Dorpeldijk, left toward Harmelen, right onto Tiendweg, Breudijk to Kortjaksepad. Hollandse Kade majestic in every direction--Kanis, Woerden, Kockengen--with everything still green. Just one walker and two cyclists on the way to Spengen. Not a soul on the road there. Some traffic on the Geerkade and Portengense Zuwe. Portengen itself almost nothing. Even less human existence along the Grote Heicop, and the superficial view to the north was wide and unspoiled. Tailwind along the ARK, all the way to the Demkabrug with its ridiculous ramp on the city side. Straatweg the rest of the way, with broken glass on almost every block. At Møs a rather thin AD, with little serious news beyond new troubling reports on the drought, here, and next door, in Germany. One new Wildberries story: how, thanks to a licensed Carrefour distributor in Armenia, it can offer all kinds European-made brands. The brands themselves usually have stopped doing business in Russia a long time ago, but, as this and earlier reports point out, they could go the extra mile and withdraw the licenses in question also. None of the dreaded reports yet on massive Russian ballistic missile strikes on Ukraine. Elsewhere a possible explanation in reports on new North Korean support for Russia, both troops and missiles. It suggests that even though Russia is reported to build ballistic missiles at a fast pace, stocks may not be sufficient to try to overwhelm Ukraine and its people. Kyiv, meanwhile, has scored another hit on a oil and gas refinery complex deep inside Russia. The more damage to the Kremlin's war economy, the better the chance the president's position gets undermined. In the half-hour on the shady side at Møs, much evidence of the return to town of students (appearing anxious, and for some reason generally dressed in white).

August 9, 2026

Sunday. Left at 10:10. Blacksmith. Warm, sunny, with some thin, stretched-out white clouds to the south. Very little wind. City very quiet, and so were Groenekan--by way of Hooge Kampse Plas--and Maartensdijk. Cyclists in Lage Vuursche, still not fully open. The air was dusty on the roadway due to the gravel riders alongside it. Soestdijk and the Eng. Some corn looking well, another patch where it seemed stunted. To Soester Hoogt, where near the top the turn has been adjusted, probably to slow down descenders from the other side before they reach the roadway. Around Soesterberg to Schaerweijde; around Zeist toward De Bilt and Møs. Yesterday's paper reporting additional information on Ukraine's strikes on Russia's Wildberries warehouses: not only does the on-line retailer have a separate section with military hardware in support of the war, they also owe a lot of money to a big Russian bank that itself is in trouble. If Wildberries can't meet its financial obligations, that bank may get into trouble, causing a wider financial crisis which for its part would make it harder for the Kremlin to finance its war. What we have (had) now is what you could call "total war": strategies going well beyond the military battlefield and targeting the opposing society's ability to sustain the war effort. Russia has attacked Ukraine's civilian infrastructure since it failed to accomplish a quick break-through in 2023, but Ukraine in the past year or two increasingly has taken the war to Russian society too. Also, where the Kremlin has tried to shield ordinary Russians from a full mobilization, so Ukraine's Western friends have mostly tried to tell themselves that they're not really in this war, in spite of many pledges, and evidence, of support. The Russian president may soon have to face the music at home for pretending there isn't a war going on, but Western governments should already feel very uneasy about the slow pace with which they have tried to increase their production of missiles, anti-ballistic missile systems, and other military hardware. Western leaders are already in trouble for the way they have pretended to their constituents that Ukraine's war in the end isn't really ours, because it is. The unease could soon turn into regret, even shame, and it would all be earned. On the shady side at Møs, a person found it necessary to conduct an on-screen, speaker-phone conversation for fifteen or so minutes. Why not, since we were the only two people there? As that very important conversation continued, the last bit of the paper, AD, on the sunny side of the building (four cars ignoring the do-not-enter sign in fifteen minutes). Letters to the editor on the special subject of the heat this year. It may not have been a representative sample, but maybe it was: what's the problem with nice, warm weather? So much better than rain and gray skies. In a month or so, we'll be back enduring those conditions. There's climate change and such, but I'll be gone by the time that becomes a real problem. And so on. Presumably, these letter writers occasionally look at their paper and what it reports on some of the other effects of all this pleasant weather. But maybe not. It's much easier to ignore news you can't use--until that news stops ignoring you.

August 8, 2026

Saturday. Left a little before 10:30. Blacksmith. Clear skies, a white smudge here and there. Warm. Light, apparently shifting winds. The usual Saturday traffic in town. Vecht westside; pleasure boat traffic, out-to-lunch fatbiker. Op Buuren, and a little impatient coming off the Oostwaarderbrug. Then Zuilense brug and Maarssenbroek. Haarrijnse plas and Rijneveldsche Boschpad. Past Gieltjesdorp toward the nature trail to Laag Nieuwkoop. Grass has been cut everywhere, in places perhaps earlier than normal, for example the west end of Gerverscop. Bike path to Woerden, then Cattenbroek, very peacful. Enough time to notice the partly-hidden, huge barns of the dairy producers. Achthoven to IJsseldijk and Meerlobrug. From the Nedereindseweg a farmer visible with his tractor, running a pump to spray water over his land. The water was black. Racers making the turn to Nedereindse Berg. Merwedekanaal back into town. Out-to-lunch fatbiker. Everything normal, except for the drought.

August 7, 2026

 Friday. Left 10:03. Blacksmith. Overcast, with many shades and shapes of gray. Here and there a sliver of blue, and toward the end even a minute of light rain. Light winds out of the southwest. Berenkuil, KNMI, toward Zeist. Bisschopsweg toward Bunnik, then left, toward Tiendweg and Bunsinglaan. Right at the Driebergen train station, toward Odijk, then left: a quiet Rijnseweg all the way to Sterkenburg. Zuwe to Watertorenweg and Tuurdijk (the lone tree). The fields a mixture of yellow and brown. One or two growers busy spraying, which is still allowed. 't Goy, past Houten, and toward Schalkwijk. Tetwijksepad and the towers of Culemborg; Achterdijk and the view of Schalkwijk's V-shape. Lekdijk and bypass to Beatrixsluis and Sluispad. Jutphaas and Merwedekanaal back into the city and Møs. Still only AD, which covered the armed drone next to a Ukrainian transport plane at Leipzig the other day. We, here in Western Europe, may not consider ourselves at war with Moscow, but Moscow sees it differently. The paper was quiet on the fact that Ukraine has run out of defenses against Russian ballistic missiles. That's an eerie and ominous quiet before the storm. After all, for the Kremlin, its war against Ukraine has always been about submission. From its perspective, this has to be the moment to escalate in order to force Kyiv to its knees. It may not be possible to achieve a break-through at the front, and Russia itself is surely taking a beating from Ukraine's drone offensive. But how long will Ukraine be able to take a sustained Russian missile barrage on its civilian and military infrastructure? The way we've gotten to know the Russian president, he must be issuing orders for his military to find out, and soon. Apparently, there's little to nothing Kyiv's friends and partners in the West are able to do to help on this particular, potentially life-or-death, issue. 

August 2, 2026

 Sunday. Left at 9:55. Blacksmith. Warm, not hot. Some white in the skies. Light, eventually moderate, breezes out of the east. Straatweg out of town. Notably busier than at nine. Maarssen to ARK eastside, and Maarssenbroekdijk-Otterspoorbroek-Woerdenseweg. There are some of the original places left, but most on this sheltered stretch is modern and upscale, often decorated with expensive vehicles. Toward Breukelen alongside riders on the other side of the river. Pleasure boats on the river--pleasure boats everywhere. Across the ARK and north toward the Angstelkade. Deserted, but pleasure boats audible on the other side of the reeds. Heading east, a brownish puddle of water on the road--out of place, since our last rain of any significance dates back to a week ago. Loenersloot and west, toward Vinkeveen. Sunday cyclists everywhere. Bikepath Groenlandsekade to Baambrugse Zuwe and its opulence. Hotel Plashoeve hanging on from an earlier era. With all the money on that stretch, there should be a way to not only preserve, but also restore it. The way it looks these days, it could be gone soon if nothing changes. Bridge between the lakes open. Later, puddles on the asphalt, but here because of the low-lying road, so low that at times the water on the other side of the reeds seems to sit above it. Left at the village, toward Demmerik. The little bridge at the edge of town opened, for the pleasure boats, when it came into view. A young woman, also stopped at the earlier barrier, on her way to Kasteel de Haar. Her speed was higher both times--until it wasn't. Donkereind, Portengen, the skills bike path to Gieltjesdorp, then Haarzuilens. Smalle Themaat, Lint, and 't Zand to Gele brug, and back into town. In the news, the next round in the Washington see-saw: maybe we won't allow Ukraine to produce Patriot missiles after all, and let's hold off on the announced devastating strikes on Iranian civilian infrastructure. Peace is at hand once more--until it isn't. Ukraine, meanwhile can't defend itself any more against Russian ballistic missiles, even if it can still strike all kinds of Russian targets. 

August 1, 2026

Saturday. Left by ten. Blacksmith. Warm, not hot. Light winds, clouds visible on the northwestern horizon. Merwedekanaal to Jutphaas. At the bottom of the bridge the ugly outcome of a bicycle collision or crash. Ambulance, police, two buses going nowhere. One woman, oxygen mask and all, flat on a stretcher, being prepared for the ambulance, another, dazed, sitting on the ground, her back against a traffic pole. Police apparently canvassing bystanders. One bicycle still on its side in the middle of the road. On to Vreeswijk, then Lekdijk. The wetland areas close to the levee drying out, but the shipping channel seemed ok. First a half-full fuel-barge, then a container barge about half-full, then a smaller barge apparently fully loaded--all headed west. Later also a fully-loaded smaller barge coming east. Light traffic on the levee, its grasses a mixture of yellow and green. Lopik to Polsbroekerdam and Oudewater (bridge up). Snelrewaard peaceful, as was Montfoort. Harmelen, de Meern, de Meernbrug, and into town to Møs. The first of the month, but the new subscription to the Volkskrant doesn't seem to have started yet. AD with lots of reporting on the migrant situation at the Spanish enclave of Ceuta. The political upheaval all over Europe in response to this crisis is one of the more sordid aspects. Just like the general discussion in this country of asylum and migration questions, it seems mostly detached from the wider realities. What may move people to risk their lives (67 confirmed dead so far) by wading into the ocean and swimming fully clothed from a relatively peaceful country such as Morocco to neighboring Spanish territory--that question rarely gets asked. It remains far too easy to mobilize people behind the idea that none of the problems that cause people to flee are of any concern to us. Just keep 'em out. It is not that we should welcome all comers, not at all. However, by pretending that in a globalized world we can just pick and choose which aspects of interconnectedness and interdependence to accept (avocados year-round; must-make trips to the far corners of the earth; cheap foreign labor to perform unpleasant tasks; the ability to order cheap stuff from China; the opportunity to ship our waste abroad), and act as if the rest might as well not exist--in that posture, we're part of the problem--and causing a significant part of it. But what politician is going to campaign on that message. In the thirty or so minutes on the bench at Møs, many fewer people cycled by than on a regular Saturday. Two or three cars ignored the do-not-enter sign.

July 30, 2026

Thursday. Left by 10:30. Blacksmith. Warm, no longer hot, moderate winds out of the northwest, thin white clouds of various shapes, gradually getting overcast. Biltse Rading. A technician on a ladder working on a small solar panel. His van parked by the side of the bike path--and why not let that diesel engine run while you're doing your job, up there on the ladder? Rapid bike route out of Bilthoven to Den Dolder and the railroad tracks. In Amersfoort, up the Abraham Kuyperlaan, and further up by way of the Emmalaan. Down Utrechtseweg, then left at the bottom, the bike trail toward the train station. Tunnel underneath the tracks and Soesterweg. A detour to the Noorderwierweg: Crocusstraat and Begoniastraat. "Soesterkwartier" in the old, unflattering sense. The land on both sides of the A.P. Hilhorstweg dry. Also a beautiful sunflower border around a patch of corn. The Eng very dry too, then semi-lost on the way to Wieksloterweg. Boerenstreek the escape route. Maartensdijk, Groenekan, Overvecht, and Møs. Still just the AD, but it had an interview with a Russian economist in exile, emphasizing the passivity of the Russian population, and warning that the country's economy is not at the point of collapse. If the president wanted to continue the war for another five years, he could, according to this observer. His advice to the West is to lure Russia's oligarchs and their money away from the Kremlin, the implication probably being that this will deprive the regime of crucial means to keep the war, and the war economy, going. It is, indeed, crucial to get Russian elites to act independently from the Kremlin and in ways that counter the war effort. The likely way for the war to end is without this Russian president having a big say. This economist too sees him as increasingly irrational, suggesting that efforts to get him around the table with his Ukrainian colleague in order to work something out (other than Ukraine's unconditional surrender) are pointless. A combination of Ukraine's war efforts and diplomacy by outsiders directed at Russian elites standing to gain from peace--such a combination could check-mate the Russian president, or make him largely irrelevant in an eventual negotiated end to the war. And indeed, we could be there as early as next week, and we might not get there for another five years.

July 29, 2026

Wednesday. Nederhorst den Berg. Left a little after eleven after a lake swim. Nikor. The lake was very calm, with some green algae lapping against the shore. Further in, the water quickly got clear and there was just one motor boat, which kept its distance. Already warm in the morning, with a near-cloudless sky, and light, later moderate, winds out of the southwest. The smell of new-mowed hay on the Spiegelweg. Vecht to Muiden. People out on racing bikes, few of them going very fast. The bright colors alongside the IJburg cyling highway almost completely gone now. In its place, multiple shades of yellow, brown, and green. Coffee and newspaper at Javaplein. Ukraine now receiving threats from Iran because of an attack on an Iranian ship in the Caspian Sea. It is not clear what Tehran would do if this continues; stopping their support for Russia is probably low on the list, although one would think that the Islamist regime currently has enough problems also to start lobbing missiles at Ukraine. Another article discussing the deteriorating situation in Crimea, due to Ukrainian attacks on supply routes, power plants, military bases. The attacks are designed to relieve Ukraine's southern front, but also, presumably, to compel the Russian president--not to escalate, but to be open to a diplomatic end to the war. There are no signs Moscow is thinking along those lines, but perhaps outside powers, in combination with certain members of Russia's elites, could help things along. The Americans would have to play their part, and perhaps it is a good thing--another story in the same paper--that a notorious American "influencer" with access to and, apparently, influence with the president, has recently changed her views on the Ukraine war 180 degrees and now fully supports Kyiv. Theoretically, the U.S. could still have a more significant and beneficial impact on the war itself by making it easier for Kyiv to obtain both defensive and offensive weapons. It could also make clear to Russian leaders, and those with access to them, that the terms for a more productive and peaceful relationship with the U.S. include an end to the current war and meaningful guarantees for Ukraine's independence. If that were to be Washington's policy, Europe would surely support it and play its part. Nobody knows how close we are to the point where this kind of thinking might even get a hearing in the Kremlin. It does seem clear that Ukraine's current drone offensive can get us closer. On to the Bushuis. The city not swarming with tourists, it seemed, except, as always, at the Bushuissluis. Back in warm conditions through Muiden, Zuidpolderweg, Keverdijk, and Hinderdam. The Keverdijksepolder is still green, as is the Heintjesrak en Broekerpolder, but on the whole, we're drying up fast. Ice cream at the square in town. Dead, with a few people on the edges in the shadows.

July 26, 2026

Sunday. Left a little after ten. Blacksmith. Overcast, with showers on the way. Not warm, not cool. Breezy out of the southwest. Gele brug to Hermelijnvlinderpad. The first few raindrops there. Alendorp to Rivierpad. Walkers, runners, some cyclists. A few yellow flowers in what seems to be a zucchini patch alongside the Rivierpad. Breudijk toward Gerverscop. Knee doing ok, but entire body still in light recovery mode. The corn in the field at the beginning of Gerverscop has disappeared, and another crop (maybe just grass) is on its way. No motorized traffic through Gerverscop, except for the huge tractor-hay trailer combination at the very end, hogging almost the entire road through the turn. Light rain from the Rodendijk all the way home. The pavement eventually just plain wet. It wasn't a lot of water, but it is very welcome nonetheless. At the Vechtbrug in Breukelen, a long line of retiree vacation cyclists making the turn into town, uttering greetings in Spanish. In the short left-right turn on Gunterstein, flattened, wet manure causing a skid, but nothing worse. The quiet at the Strook, Veenkade, Herenweg, and the rest of the way home suggesting that the rain had begun to keep people inside. In the news, word that, for the time being, the American president is holding off on more intensified air strikes on Iranian civilian infrastructure. That's until the next round of threats, possibly some more attacks, followed by yet another shift. And so on, and so forth. Washington's cluelessness and aggression should not lead to any kind of admiration for the fanatical, murderous regime in Tehran and its ability to withstand U.S. attacks. We have to see each regime for what it is and hope that before things really get out of hand, enough influential outside powers that are directly or indirectly affected by this war put pressure on Washington and Tehran to find a way out. They certainly seem incapable of getting there on their own. Unfortunately, before there's any chance of that happening, the Israeli prime-minister will visit Washington this week. The whole military campaign was his idea, and even though it has been a disaster, the man will likely argue for the U.S. and Israel to double down. Using excessive military force is not just his favorite option, it has long been his only option. It is anybody's guess how the American president will respond--and if he responds in one way, he could change his mind again soon after that. Thus, given the people in charge on all sides in this conflict (put there, in the case of Washington and Jerusalem, by voters in a democratic process), it is unlikely that we will see a real change for the better any time soon, maybe not for a couple of years. Meanwhile, the opportunities for an even greater disaster remain plentiful.

July 25, 2026

 Saturday. Left at 9:51. Nikor. Sunny, warm--not hot. Moderate winds out of the south/southwest. Clear skies, just some white brush strokes on the horizon. Koningsweg to Vechten and Achterdijk. There, and alongside the Hollendewagenweg thriving wildflower borders. The rest of the fields and of nature pretty dry. People out, but not too many. Getting out of the saddle still a bit sensitive, but parts in the big ring without issues. Dwarsdijk and Kapellenweg (apples or pears on the trees). Lek fairly peaceful, no barges. The areas between the breakwaters beginning to fall dry. Beatrixsluis, Plofsluis, Jutphaase brug, and Merwedekanaal back into town and Møs. The drought intensifies, but this time there were many barges tied to shore along the Sluispad. Perhaps that by now for many of them more and more waterways, such as the Lek, have become too shallow to navigate profitably. In the paper (AD, but de Volkskrant will return, they said) a report on how the Russian government is forcing companies and universities (well east of Moscow) to supply a certain number of recruits for the military every month. This among other forced recruitment tactics. Not much those poor people can do against the police state, but the police state is being hit where it hurts on a regular basis now. Unfortunately, Brussels has allowed Greece to support Ukraine rhetorically while protecting the bottom line of one of its influential shipping tycoons. To say that country, and several other EU members, have a credibility problem would be an understatement. 

July 22, 2026

Wednesday. Left as the church bells in Nederhorst den Berg struck eleven. Nikor, after a quick swin in the lake. Showers, but brief, and it wasn't cold. So-called bad weather eliminates most people from the beach and the lake itself. Eendracht riders passing on the way out of town. The skies were many shades of gray, and after Muiden there was a brief shower. Breezy out of the northwest, but the knee did ok. Getting out of the saddle sensitive, but possible. Boats in the locks at Spiegelplas and Muiden, but no hold-up. A new bridge leading into Weesp; the old one had been there since at least the 1970s and was nicer to look at. Grasses, weeds, and wildflowers tall on IJburg, though less colorful than a month ago. The new trail between Muiden and Overdiemen is efficient, but it's no fun no longer to be able to look out over the water. Javaplein with the newspaper. An editorial critical of the unwillingness of many EU member states to be as tough and consistent in their sanctions policy toward Russia as they could be. As a group, the EU talks firmly, but the sanctions stick is rather flexible, and quite a few countries look for exceptions for their own companies and interests. If sanctions, Europe's favorite tool, are to be successful, they'll impose hardship, not just on the recipient, but also those imposing them. Given public opinion in many EU countries and the Union's great diversity in membership, the current performance may be the best one possible. At least Brussels has begun to send to Ukraine parts of the 90 billion Euro support package long held up by Hungary. Also in the news how the Ukrainian president has now also fired his top general, the main rival of the former defense minister, sacked last week. The new top general is an ally of the previous defense minister, and the new defense minister seems on board too with his predecessor's emphasis on new technologies over traditional war-fighting under a rigid, top-down command structure. We may, or may not, learn whether the two firings, and their timing, was part of a preconceived plan by the president, or whether the old general's dismissal became inevitable after many people became angry and protested in the past week. (Either one signals good things about the way Ukraine is being led). In any case, if the president also succeeds in bringing the former defense minister back into the government in a major position, the original stand-off between the old general and the young minister may have moved the country forward. Ukraine needs all the help it can get from its friends, but in the end will have to force Russia to give up all by itself. On to the Bushuis through a moderately busy city. Back by way of Zuidpolderweg and Keverdijk. Peak vacation time, and the locals vacationing elsewhere outweigh the strangers being here.  

July 15, 2026

 Wednesday. Left around 10:15. Blacksmith. Small ring again, stuck to the saddle, creeping up the inclines. But it is riding, it is being outside. Warm and sunny, moderate winds out of the east. Busy on the Singel; the garbage trucks stink in this weather. Koningsweg to Wayen and Langeweg. There, a hare on the road who kept running ahead and eventually took off into the field to the right. Grasses and hedges beginning to look dry. We are in a drought. Sluispad to Beatrixsluizen, then Schipperspad. Just a handful of barges at the quays, probably because all skippers have lots of work due to low water levels in the rivers preventing anyone from carrying a full load. On the ARK still a few barges loaded down. Gele brug back into town and Møs, where they seem to have cancelled their Volkskrant subscription. AD instead--still undisturbed by 11:30. Two nuclear-armed powers engaged in warfare. Yesterday, the American president announced tolling charges for passage through a waterway he does not control; today he pulled back and instead announced major air strikes on Iranian infrastructure for next week. By the weekend, those will likely be postponed, and we'll hear about something else. The U.S. presumably is a key player in a diplomatic way out of Russia's war on Ukraine. That country's counteroffensive around Crimea by all accounts is taking a serious toll, certainly on Moscow's ability to supply its southern front in Ukraine, perhaps also on its overall hold on the peninsula. The best Ukraine can hope to achieve by these and other kinds of hits on Russia's ability to wage war is cease-fire talks, followed by a peace process. More likely today, unfortunately, until regime change in Moscow, is Russian escalation from the air, targeting civilian infrastructure. If there were to be regime-change, a cease-fire might be achievable given that the reason to remove the current leader would be his unwillingness to change course in his catastrophic war. For a longer-term outcome giving Ukraine a chance at survival as an independent nation, it would be hard to put any stock in what Washington may or may not be able to contribute--at least until there is regime change there too. Good luck to all of us, first and foremost Ukraine, getting through the next two-and-a-half years. In the time it took to get through the paper, just two cars violated the do-not-enter restriction at the Kievitstraat at Møs.

July 11, 2026

 Saturday. Left a little before ten, cautiously. Blacksmith. Cool for a summer day, but very pleasant. Mostly cloudy, gradually getting more sunny. Light winds out of the northeast. Seated and small ring--no getting out of the saddle. Overvecht and Blauwkapel to Ruygenhoek. Swimmers in the nature pool, just 5.5 km from home. Kooijdijk to Westbroek and toward Tienhoven. Saturday morning in a vacation month. Middenweg to Bethuneweg; Herenweg to Oud Zuilen and Mos. In the paper ongoing speculation about possible desperate moves by the Russian president, particularly against one of the Baltic states. This in addition to stories from Russia about elites questioning the course of the country. And Ukraine, aside from being hit itself daily, keeps hitting targets inside the country. There are no good options for the Kremlin, and who is going to say what or how the president thinks, and on the basis of what information. But all his chips are on this cruel, costly war where Europe is Ukraine's main supporter, and the current administration in Washington a perpetual wild card. That last aspect also means it can't be predicted if the U.S. will be willing to act in case of a Russian provocation in the Baltics. It would be up to the Europeans, and they may fall short, in which case Ukraine's resistance could be undermined also. And it could all happen next week. 

July 7, 2026

 Tuesday. Left around 1:30. Blacksmith. Summer. White clouds, but mostly sunny. Breezy from the northwest. Vecht westside to Op Buuren and Zuilensebrug, Maarssenbroek, and around the Haarrijnse plas. Schoolkids on the way home, but manageable. Around Haarzuilens to natuurpad leading to Laag Nieuwkoop. Wildflowers and colored nettles and weeds still around, but not as exuberant as a couple of weeks ago. Vacation cyclists, but not bad at all on the Hollandse Kade. There, the reeds and bushes moving majestically in the wind. Houtdijkerpad to Kromme Rijn and Harmelen. The special bike route prominently running through town now. De Meern toward the city. Taken down hard by a fat bike in the turn leading to De Meern brug. As if there was no right-of-way. But there is no right-of-way, there's only maintaining sufficient margin-for-error at all times--your error, or someone else's. Banged up, but able to continue home.

July 5, 2026

 Sunday. Left a little after ten. Blacksmith. Not cool, not warm. Overcast with a variety of gray clouds, here and there a small gap for the sun. Along the way, once or twice a few small raindrops. Breezy out of the west. Bilthoven to Den Dolder and the trail alongside the train tracks to Amersfoort. The usual Sunday morning cycling traffic, along with runners and walkers. No outlet from the Bremstraat, although the map suggests there is. Amersfoortse berg to the Belgian Monument, then toward Leusden-Zuid. Left at De Mof, to and through Scherpenzeel (quiet). A young couple pushing a stroller, with the man in a t-shirt and the women in a red dress, wearing short, white, high-heeled boots. There were other people along the way appartently going home from church. Toward and over the hill (light traffic), right at the bottom in Amerongen. Right again in Leersum toward Ginkelduin. Haarweg to Scherpenzeelseweg and back toward Leersum. There a right, then Hoogstraat and Ruiterberg. Gooijerdijk toward Driebergen, then Sterkenburg, Beverweerd, and the tunnel at Werkhoven. Into the wind down the Achterdijk and past Vechten. Into town by way of Kampong and Kromme Rijn. In the news another Ukrainian hit on Russian oil infrastructure at St Petersburg. And openly expressed concerns by Scandinavians: Putin may be getting desperate and choose to double down, also in the Baltic. The options for NATO would not be good: hitting back, if Washington could be persuaded not to stand in the way, brings the risk of further escalation with a nuclear power. Still, a proportional response there would have to be, otherwise Moscow will continue to believe Europe is all talk (at opportune and inopportune times) and no action. Exactly what the response would be, and where, of course would depend on the nature of the Russian escalation. It would also have to be sold to the public in the West, something not to be taken lightly, but not a reason not to do it. As if the situation wasn't grim enough, it's getting grimmer by the week.

July 3, 2026

Friday. The envisioned talk did not happen, but this in a nutshell is what I would have told the student participants in this UN-oriented workshop: 

Talking about a "rules-based order," I would have started with a reference to something Mahatma Gandhi probably never said, when asked (or not) about Western Civilization: "It would be a good idea." We hardly have one today, maybe never really did, and yet as a globalized world, we can't really live without a common way to face up to shared challenges. The problem is political. Under the right circumstances (most of the second half of the twentieth century), the "international community" (if something like that ever really existed) can make good progress in building a rules-based order. However, as the history of the past two centuries shows, the very particular rule first put in writing by Thucydides keeps asserting itself: "the strong do what they have the power to do and the weak accept what they have to accept." The conclusion, especially for the participants in your program, is that one should be very clear-eyed about the temptation for great powers to make their own rules, and, given that, think and work hard with all the others (those states, groups, and individuals for whom a credible international rule book is of crucial importance) on maintaining and augmenting laws, treaties, institutions created since 1945, and to convince great powers (those subject to the temptation of "might makes right") that in the long term, a credible rules-based international order is in their interest too. The globalizing world prior to 1914 did not have a common way to face up to shared challenges, and there came a big, global war; the world of the 1920s and 1930s had an inadequate international rule book, and an even bigger war came; the world of the Cold War, and beyond, did much better, until the beginning of the twenty-first century. We don't have a new world war yet, and nothing is inevitable until it happens. But (a historian's warning): while history does not repeat itself, it does often rhyme.  

July 1, 2026

 Wednesday. Left twenty to ten for De Biltse Hoek. Blacksmith. Mild, light winds out of the southwest. Sunny. Detour from the Berenkuil. Detour around Zeist, past Huis ter Heide, then toward Woudenberg. Groups of school kids with their teachers on end-of-year excursions. Right onto Griftdijk. Rumelaarseweg toward Emminkhuizen. A detour, so left Biesbosserweg into Renswoude. Scherpenzeel next, back onto country roads at the Voskuilerweg. Voskuilerdijk to De Mof, then Den Treek. Toward and eventually up Trekerweg. Toward and around Zeist to Bunsinglaan. Through Bunnik, then Koningsweg back into the city. At work on a talk on the "rules-based order." As Gandhi probably never said when asked, or not, about Western Civilization: it would be a good idea.