May 31, 2026

Sunday. Left around 9:40. Blacksmith. Mostly sunny, warm,  light winds out of the northwest. Biltstraat to and through Berenkuil, toward Zeist. Utrechtseweg to Driebergseweg and Driebergen. A Sunday morning. Quiet everywhere, except for later, around Maarn, when the route overlapped with an event ride. No inevitable stops, in spite of some red lights. Doorn to Ruiterberg. Maarnse Grindweg to Maarn and Quatre Bras. Left and up, and back toward the detour at Zeist. De Bilt and Blauwkapelseweg to Biltse Rading and home. Romania was hit by a so-called errant Russian drone; also last week, we saw images of Lithuanian civilians in a bomb shelter: as Russia seems to test NATO credibility, there is not too much immediate action by the alliance. Alliance members do, of course, continue to support Ukraine, which remains the most important way to put pressure on the Kremlin. But beyond the big picture, where Russia is really not winning, eventually the question will have to be answered whether NATO can continue to shrug off Russian provocations through statements and little else. There must be ideas for a proportional counter-provocation near Kaliningrad, for example, just to let the Kremlin know that NATO really is capable of acting militarily. Or maybe there aren't, since it may well be impossible to get all 32 member states to commit to something like that, especially since the government of the most powerful (though not necessarily capable) member state wants to be friends with the man in the Kremlin. If counter-punching is, indeed, asking too much, the European member states instead had better invest heavily in anti-drone and anti-ballistic missile systems and sit tight. If they are lucky, Ukraine in the meantime will bring the Russian regime to its knees. If they continue to be lucky after that, perhaps Ukraine will then still be interested in military and other forms of cooperation. In such a case, Kiyv will hold a lot of cards, and if it has any sense, Europe will adjust its current positions on, for example, EU membership accordingly. Let's not hold our breath.

May 28, 2026

Thursday. Nederhorst den Berg. Started a little after eleven after a dip in the Spiegelplas. Nikor. The old commute, the old territory, on a glorious summer day. Sunny, warming up quickly to about 26 C, moderate winds out of the east. More expensive new houses in Nederhorst den Berg, now at the Reeweg. They don't look bad. The old estate on the east side of the Vecht, near Weesp, now also finished and inhabited, with a new structure next to it. It is the evidence backing up the recurring reports--for years now--of growing numbers of very wealthy people in this country (and, judging from election results, so many others aspiring to join their ranks). The developing back yards behind the new expensive mansions at the levee outside of Muiden are more evidence of this change: they all look different from each other, some are very far along, others almost barren, and in this they're a 2020s version of the garden plots that used to be there. Ten odd years ago, those users posted signs that they weren't going anywhere. But their plots are long gone, and it is anybody's guess where they went. IJburg to Javaplein and the newspaper. Ukrainian military now confirming that the tide is turning in the war, although also emphasizing that they're in no position to launch a major offensive. It's Russia that is faltering, and the theory (disproved for the Americans in Vietnam) is that Ukraine is killing and wounding Russian troops faster than Moscow can replace them. It is a fact that the Russian system (top-down, corrupt) is just not as adaptable as the people fighting for survival. The Ukrainian interviewed also suggested a time-line, at least for how things may go between the two militaries: Ukraine's new mobilization measures only will begin to produce results (more trained soldiers) some time next winter. It's not over by a long shot, unless someone manages to get to the Russian president, who, for his part, seems perfectly willing to escalate to the level of ballistic missile strikes on Ukrainian cities. Busy city to Bushuis. Return around six in classic summer evening conditions. From IJburg to Muiden in a small group of summer evening warriors. Then toward the Keverdijk and Nederhorst den Berg. Hay being baled in the Heintjesrak- en Broekerpolder to complete the picture.

May 24, 2026

 Sunday. Left at 8:30. Blacksmith. A very fine summer morning. Quiet, very mild, sunny, with light winds out of the northeast. Straatweg to Maarssen, then across and alongside the ARK. Some barge traffic, a river cruise liner. People out for their Sunday rides. Between Breukelen and Loenersloot the hedge helped with the little wind that was there. Quick look at the Nederhorst den Berg church spire before Nigtevecht. All trees are now in full leaf, and distant views and polluted horizons are much obscured. IJburg, Zeeburg, Zunderdorp, and Broek. Waterland--and everywhere else--lush: bike path borders full of tall grasses, wild flowers and weeds. Back by way of Poppendammergouw (with a section of pink concrete, of all bad ideas), Ransdorp. Then IJburg toward Muiden. A new bike path underneath the dike. No more looking over the water, but separating the walkers from the cyclists makes sense. The wealthy in Muiden are busy landscaping their large yards in search of privacy. Muiden to Keverdijk, nicely paved and clean these days. Then Ankeveen, Kwakel, Emmaweg, and Kerkelanden. More and more people on their bikes and out walking--of course. The entrance at the old municipal building-turned emergency shelter under guard, but quiet. The refugees have arrived, and the sky has not fallen. Loosdrecht going about its holiday business as always, but that's not news. In a field alongside the Korssesteeg a couple of swans with six chicks, from the looks of them just a few days old. In the news, more claims from Washington of an imminent deal with Teheran--like we've heard just about every week since the cease-fire, or even before. And Mexico has paid for the Wall. In Ukraine some indication of what a desperate Russian leadership may resort to, namely more and more violent terror bombing. Ukraine will hit back, and that will hurt, but whether it can win this kind of escalatory back-and-forth is very uncertain. 

May 23, 2026

Saturday. Left at ten. Blacksmith. Warm, sunny, light to moderate winds out of the southwest. A little maintenance. Singel to Koningsweg and Wayen. Goslings and baby goats. Langeweg to ARK and Plofsluis. There seem to be more insects than in recent years. Plenty of barges around the Beatrix locks, but one section reserved for pleasure boats. Vreeswijk to Jutphaas, then ARK to gele brug and Cycleworks. Weekend paper in the hot sun at Møs. Analysis of the recent NATO shenanigans of the U.S. administration. Combined with Moscow's provocations, they underline the urgency for concrete European steps--short-term and longer-term--to develop its own capabilities. As Russia will feel more besieged in its war against Ukraine, the chances increase for some desperate, provocative action against Ukraine's greatest supporters. Equally important as credible military options in such a case will be alliance coherence. Given Washington's current unreliability, in practice this will mean joint action by the other members. Regardless of the nature of the specific Russian provocation, addressing it will likely have to occur in conjunction with discussions (let's hope it will just be discussions) for an end to Russia's war against Ukraine. And so the temptation will arise to emphasize diplomacy before Moscow has been given an appropriate bloody nose (a proportional counter move to whatever form the provocation may take). The American president has managed, for all intents and purposes, to split the alliance, we may soon find out whether the political will exists in Europe to defend what's left of its credibility.

May 18, 2026

 Monday. Left at 10. Nikor (damp and wet roads underneath the trees from overnight rain; bricks, of course, mostly dry). Fairly mild, mostly overcast, with moderate winds out of the southwest. Biltse Rading, de Bilt, Bilthoven to Den Dolder and the trail. Outer route up the Amersfoortse Berg to Laan 1914 and Dodeweg. Then for something new, around Leusden: Heiligerbergerweg and Driftakkerweg. Bike path to Horsterweg. Into the other world. Stoutenburg. In Achterveld, rain. Back toward Leusden, then Kanaalweg to Langesteeg, Hamersveldseweg, and De Mof. Back through De Treek, Trekerweg, and a detour past lots of money in Zeist. Another shower just before the city. Paper at Møs. Russia and Ukraine look a bit like exhausted heavyweights trying to land as many punches as possible before the bell. There have been some signs that Moscow may be looking for a way out, and the Ukrainian president has urged the EU to select a point person in case negotiations get underway. We'll surely have to wait until the Russian president completes his visit to Beijing. And even though one can't rely on Washington these days in European security matters, the U.S. will surely have to be at the table too if talks get organized, if only because Moscow will need a friend there. Let's hope the White House will send a couple of businessmen, they always cut the best peace deals--and fast.

May 16, 2026

Saturday. Nikor (some damp patches in isolated places; possibility of showers). On the cool side, partly cloudy, breezy out of the west. Westside of the Vecht out of town, to Op Buuren, Zuilensebrug, Maarssenbroek. Detour in Vleuten through fantasyland. Haarrijnse plas, Rijneveldsebospad, past Haarzuilens. Yarrow and yellow flowers seemingly everywhere. Still some just-born lambs here and there. Nature path to Laag Nieuwkoop and Hollandse Kade. Just one bike there, all the way to the Houtdijkerpad. Right, to Woerden, then left to Cattenbroekerdijk. Yellow-clad group approaching from the right (Linschoten), then behind. Montfoort, Achthoven, and Zuid IJsseldijk (eventually, the group to the right, headed for IJsselstein). Meerlopad and bridge to Nedereindseweg, Merwedekanaal, and Møs. In the paper analysis of the Beijing summit. The American president so wants to be friends with the powerful Chinese dictator that, apparently, he discussed possible U.S. arms sales to Taiwan with his Chinese colleague. That's unprecedented in the history of U.S.-PRC relations, but for this U.S. president it hardly surprising. In Europe, there's the EU and even NATO (with or without Washington), in East Asia, traditional U.S. allies better organize something too. 

May 14, 2026

 Thursday. Left around 2:30. Nikor, but it was dry everywhere, just a little damp pavement under the trees in Driebergen. Cool, mostly cloudy skies, moderate winds out of the north. Around the Jaarbeurs to Merwedekanaal, Oog in Al, and ARK. East side of ARK to Plofsluis, then the other side to Elpad and Kaaiweg. A holiday, although on the canal enough barges for a regular work day. Young families out for a little bike ride. From Schalkwijk through the fields back to the ARK. Quiet stretch to Goyerbrug. Nachtdijk into the wind to Watertorenweg and Zuwe. No farm vehicles, but plenty of ryegrass. Toward Driebergen, past the Hondspol, a few cows in a small field with high grass and buttercups. Arnhemse Bovenweg to Zeist, and back to the city. 

May 10, 2026

 Sunday. Left a little after ten. Blacksmith. Partly cloudy. A fairly stiff wind out of the north made it feel a little cool, but the day could still pass for a Dutch summer day. Blauwkapel, Groenekan, Maartensdijk, Hollandse Rading. Why wouldn't people be out on a fine morning such as this. Past the airfield and the angry signs at the former Loosdrecht municipal building. Kerkelanden and across a quiet Hilversums Kanaal. Emmaweg, Kerklaan, and Kortenhoefsedijk. Folks in the water at the Wijde Blick beach, standing in a circle. Zuwe to Vreeland. Spoorlaan to Kerklaan, then across the ARK to the Angstelkade, a road where hardly anybody goes. More tailwind along the ARK to Lage Weide. Gele brug back into town. 

May 9, 2026

Saturday. Left at ten. Blacksmith. Cloudless skies, gradually becoming partly cloudy. Mild, with moderate easterly winds. Marsdijk, Achterdijk, Werkhoven. Perennial ryegrass and little else, other than giant farm vehicles everywhere. Hollendewagenweg to Caspergouw. Scooter the last bit to Dwarsdijk. Kapellenweg, across a quiet ARK. Lekdijk fairly quiet, although the motorcycles are definitely back. River calm and beautiful. Few if any boats. Sluispad to Jutphaas (another scooter), and back into the city to Møs. Pictures later of the Russian president at the victory parade. He does, indeed, look old and frail now, worn down. How could he not be. It doesn't make him less dangerous to the outside world, or his own people, although to some in his orbit (nobody thinks things are going well) he may look more vulnerable. 

May 7, 2026

Thursday. Left around 10:15. Blacksmith. Start of the app-less era, because when the tools become so important as to determine success or failure, things have gone out of proportion. Blue skies with some white clouds in the distance, slowly coming in from the south. Light winds out of the northeast. Fairly mild. Getting underway, school kids tossing an empty can onto the street--early dissonant. Yellow bridge to Alendorp and Rivierpad. Full-on spring, with grasses and wildflowers thriving, mowing underway, fat lambs and only a few little ones. A grebe nesting at Gerverscop. Lots of birdsong from Scheendijk to Veenkade and beyond. Trekking cyclists, and the other kinds. A stop at Møs [it's just a matter of keeping the "o" pressed down to get the options] and the paper. In the news growing evidence that the Russian regime, particularly its president, is losing its grip. Apparently Russians are withdrawing large amounts of cash. This comes on top of the extreme security measures surrounding the annual World War II victory parade, and the earlier news on how security around the president himself has been tightened. The man's options seem to be down to various desperate measures, which by no means are imaginary: the threatened massive strike on downtown Kyiv, for example. But there are other targets in Ukraine, and the Russian military has options not yet used, even short of nuclear weapons. And the western neighbors are right to worry about some provocation, or worse, in their direction--it's a real question if NATO is ready, militarily or politically. Who can get into the Russian president's head to know how he views his predicament? We're getting closer to finding out what happens when a nuclear-armed regime gets in a desperate position. It's the kind of thing you never want to experience, and perhaps it can still be avoided. But who does one address in Moscow to indicate that there may be a way forward after this war concludes and Ukraine preserves its independence? And exactly who might "one" be to Russia's West? The current regime in Washington? Even if it wanted to find a way out acceptable for Kyiv, where is its credibility? Alternatively, "Europe" once again does not seem ready to speak credibly and with a single voice. By process of elimination, it seems Ukraine itself would be most suited. Not only is it gaining the upper hand in the war, as a close relative to the Russians it would potentially have the most impact if it was able to convey that, provided its independence is respected fully and some way is found for Russia to make amends for what it has inflicted on Ukraine and its people, peaceful coexistence should be possible. What would also need to happen, and no outsider can influence, is a Russia no longer seeing itself as an empire but instead reformed to an extent where self-determination or autonomy for peoples outside or even within its borders no longer can be construed as a threat to Russia itself. So we're back, and much closer, to where the exit always was to be found: a new leadership in Moscow, a new outlook on itself and the world in Russia at large. The Soviet Union miraculously ended peacefully and with a whimper; whether we'll get lucky twice in a row is not guaranteed by any means.