If Nixon Were Alive

Looking for other stuff in Nixon Project papers some years ago, I came across an order from the president to (I paraphrase) "cut off everything we do with Sweden!" This because of open criticism by the Swedish government of his Vietnam policies. He might want something similar today for all of Scandinavia, because the Swedes and Norwegians who issue the various Nobel prizes, but especially the Peace, Literature, and Economics awards, seem to have taken it upon themselves to voice anti-American sentiments shared by many on this side of the Atlantic. If not outright anti-Americanism, then certainly anti-Bush-Americanism. See the Peace Nobels for people like Jimmy Carter and Al Gore; see also what a member of the committee for the literary award said about U.S. authors (they won't win, essentially, because U.S. literary culture is too insular); and see now Paul Krugman's award. Aside from being a not too predictable columnist who is almost always worth reading, Krugman is a serious and very reputable scholar. Still, it's interesting how the BBC today identifies him primarily as a fierce critic of the Bush administration, and it can't perhaps be ruled out that this has played a part in the Nobel committee's evaluations. It's their award money, and they can do with it what they want (and they often to admirable things with it), but it bears repeating perhaps that especially these Nobel awards for non-exact fields tend to be a reflection of the political preferences of a small, Scandinavian elite. Of course, Bush could still be wrong, and it can't be ruled out that Nixon was wrong about a few things too.

Sunday Ride on Quiet Fall Day

Dry, mild, overcast, and little wind. Only after a day like yesterday can these be somewhat disappointing circumstances for a Sunday ride in October. Three layers, with long sleeves on top, and knee warmers felt just right when I got on my way to meet the rest of the group in Vreeland. My first day in the Whisper Power kit ("smart energy solutions"). We followed the Vecht river further than I ever had, through Maarssen and Oud-Zuilen. Along the edge of the Utrecht neighborhood of Overvecht, alongside the Karl Marx Drive (it's really there--not that there's anything wrong with that), Fort Blauwkapel, a little bikepath through a recreational area, and de Bilt/Bilthoven, where we did a lot of expert twisting and turning and eventually found the straight-and-narrow to our regular coffee spot in Lage Vuursche. This inspired us to make a bit of a sprint of it for the "city" limit sign. We happened on an old friend there-- actually, he found us--who was on his own Sunday ride. He and I have known each other since elementary school, but I had not seen him for years, maybe fifteen. We twisted and turned our way home by way, mostly, of roads and bikepaths tracing the A-1 interstate and were able to open it up a little here and there. Fifty-one miles for me, with about a 19 average--all this on the Klein, the winter bike, which I pulled out last week thinking we were done with nice weather. Shows how much I know.

Perfect Little Ride

It was a day for a longer expedition, but there isn't always time, and there certainly isn't these days. Close to 2o degrees celsius (about 70 F), little wind, sun. A real gift in Holland in October. Did a loop through Vreeland, Kerklaan, Loenersloot, Baambrugge, Abcoude, and Weesp. Looked for the little road between Baambrugge and Abcoude that runs through the fields, but failed to cross the water, so I ended up back on the main road (still a nice road to ride on). Reaching Weesp I decided to go through town so that I could ride home along the Vecht river, the way I go on my commutes to Amsterdam now also (this as opposed to riding alongside the highway). It was there that I got passed, first, by a moped with two guys on it. It went a little too fast, so when the kid on the back just threw his empty can off to the side of the road, all I could do was shake my Dutch finger at him from a distance. But a second moped--only the rider--went a little slower, 27 to be exact. This I was able to confirm after making the jump to its rear wheel after a brief moment of hesitation. Had to do 29.9 (maximum speed for the ride) for 100 meters or so to get there. But I got there and it was great, even though we went our separate ways after half a mile at the Fort Uitermeer.

What's the Real Crisis?

A reader suggests an answer.

Hazardous Prediction

Because at the speed things are currently moving, all predictions are hazardous. It was less than two weeks ago when the "crisis" was still primarily a U.S. crisis, not just because U.S. financial institutions were in trouble and the U.S. government could not get a rescue plan passed, but also because presumably the Americans had some uniquely American flaws (greed, for example). The implication was that in other parts of the world (virtuous Europe) stuff like that could not happen. Turns out, things are a little more complicated than that (even though U.S. financial and economic stability remains extremely precarious). Turns out, we're in the first true financial crisis of the current era of globalization, where everything is connected. Uncharted territory, just like the Great Depression of the 1920s and 1930s was new. Back then, national approaches (as opposed to joint, international responses) made things worse before they could get better. One way they first began to get better was because individual governments passed systemic reforms to counter market unpredictability, imbalances, and volatilty (in the U.S.: FDIC, SEC, Social Security, etc). After World War II, the beginnings of this for the world as a whole were also introduced (IMF, World Bank, Bretton Woods system). It appears we need a new round of reform, but we're not there yet by any means (think of how for example Germany refuses to go along with a joint EU response, where it should be leading such an effort). But back then leadership also made a difference--think FDR in the U.S. and Adolf Hitler in Germany. As you can hear everywhere, a big part of the current problem is a crisis of confidence--who is in charge, who has the vision to turn things around, who can give the impression s/he can lead? This we don't have right now, and we won't have it at least until the U.S. presidential election. So here's the hazardous prediction: to great cheer all over the world, Obama will win the election, next month, and thanks also to the fact that the collapse of the global financial system and stock markets everywhere will have had time to reach rock bottom (only four more weeks of this!), his victory address will mark the beginning of a turn-around. His inaugural address next January will add a little steam, as will the first 100 days of his administration (which will hit the ground running). It will be an entirely new situation (or so it will seem), except, of course, that all eyes will continue to be on the U.S. Toward the end of Obama's first term the world may be on its way to some kind of recovery. In other words: in our lifetime!

Two Small Windows of Riding Opportunity

And I did not take advantage, this weekend. The first chance, and best, was yesterday morning, when until I had to leave the house around 11 I probably could have gotten a completely rainless ride in. But I slept a little longer than I should have, then ate a full breakfast instead of just getting out, and after that the moment had passed. (The afternoon was mostly good too, but there were places to go, people to see--too many people, as during our two hours at IKEA). Today is very windy and wet, so we basically canceled the Sunday ride last night. And when I was up at 7:30 (briefly) the rain was definitely hitting the window. Yet, checking the radar around 10, it was clear that in our area, there was a decent gap between 8:45 and 10:45. The roads would have been wet, but there would not have been much water coming from above. Now, at 3:40 in the afternoon, it's just raining and raining and raining. The rain should move away later, but I doubt if it will happen before dark. In Holland in the fall, you really have to grab your opportunities whenever you can ("ride the weather," in Danny Chew's words), or you're stuck in the house or--to underline the lack of options--end up accompanying your spouse on her daily walk. This is not in accordance with the way a proper cycling Sunday should go.

The crisis and U.S. leadership

My take this week in GPD papers, if you read Dutch; today the Twentse Courant Tubantia. Translation of the headline (not provided by me, but it does capture the essence): No Alternative for U.S. Leadership.