Afghanistan Stuff

The Obama administration's relationship with the Karzai regime in Kabul continues to resemble Ike's and JFK's relationship with South Vietnam's Ngo Dhin Diem in the late 1950s and early 1960s, especially today. We know he's no good (corrupt, stubborn, impopular, generally ineffective), but don't see an alternative that's better in the circumstances. Having supported the man and said many nice things about him (primarily under Obama's predecessor, but still), it would damage our own credibility suddenly to declare our dependence on him a mistake. There is one difference, however: negotiations with the enemy, the subject of today's talks at the White House. In 1963, when there were signs that the Diem regime might be open to talks with the communist regime in Hanoi, it may have contributed to the Kennedy administration's willingness to have Diem replaced (what would become the November coup, in which Diem and his brother Nhu--the government's designated point person for contacts with the communists--were killed). Today, the discussion is not about whether talks should be conducted with certain Taliban, but how. They're different situations, but at least today we're recognizing that ultimately all the parties in Afghanistan are Afghans, and that they'll have to work things out together long after Western troops stop playing a major role in their country.
In the Netherlands there have been developments too, as explained last week by The Holland Bureau. The PvdA, the social democrats, now would be willing to support a new Dutch mission in Afghanistan, as long as the emphasis is on police (training) work. The social democrats, of course, were the ones who brought down the government earlier this year because, eh, well that depends on who you talk to. Over here, we've called it cynical, shortsighted, and selfish political opportunism, but more nuanced interpretations can be found also. In any case, only last month the party voted against a proposal by the Greens and the centrist D'66 to consider sending a police mission, on the grounds that so many military might be needed to protect these police people, that the end-result would be a military mission anyway. It was the party's foreign policy spokesman, Martijn van Dam (he of the "let's try unilateral nuclear disarmament again, just like in the 1980s!" idea) setting the tone here. But in response more serious people in the party have begun to weigh in. As Giles over at The Holland Bureau reported, new party leader Job Cohen has recently left the police mission option on the table. And yesterday in an interview in the Volkskrant (no link--only for subscribers) former party leader Ed van Thijn openly criticized the party's pulling the plug on the government last February over Afghanistan. Van Thijn does not, shall we say, find it credible to have been so rigid about the 2007 resolution to end the mission in 2010. There has come a new U.S. president, I'm paraphrasing his words, with a new strategy, and what is the meaning of all this professed support for Obama, what kind of ally this it make us, if you then just ignore all that and leave? Good question.

Froome Watch, III

I'm watching the team time trial, and just saw Chris Froome hanging on for dear life after about ten miles, not pulling through. The next time they showed the team, they were with only seven (one rider of the nine having fallen behind due to a flat early on), so perhaps he got dropped. The Flemish commentators have noted that the team had the fastest split at the half-way mark. But this may have been without my new friend.
Update: Chris Froome's team, Team Sky, finished second in today's team time trial, and it looks they could live with that. Here's Froome's tweet: "Running 2nd after an effort like that is just not as rewarding as it should be. Spirits high though. 2morrow a new day, a new opportunity!" It wasn't a very spectacular day, but if you looked at the faces of the riders, especially in the final kilometer, you realized how tough a team time trial is. Same with watching guys taking their place at the rear of the rotation after a turn at the front: that is a matter of centimeters, and if you're just a little late, you're gapped and you have to bring all hands on deck just to stay in contact. Problem is, those hands are on deck from mile one, so it can get desperate pretty quickly. In other words, there are still many worthwhile aspects to a day like this that can justify an hour or two in front of the television.

Froome Watch, II

Another hectic stage, which I was only able to watch intermittently on my computer. I never saw Chris, but it looks like he was a victim of the wind and the crashes. Not that he was the only one. He finished in the biggest group of the day, in the company of Petacchi and Pozzato, among many others, about eight minutes behind the winner of the day. As of almost 11pm, Chris hasn't twittered yet. I'm sure that's at least partly because right after the race, everyone had to get on planes to make the move to Italy, where the Giro belongs.
Update: Tweet from the rest day: "As great as the atmosphere was in Holland with such enthusiastic and friendly people, it's a relief to be back in Italy!" And who can blame him after the last two days?

Froome Watch, I

The Giro riders just passed through our town, Nederhorst den Berg, less than ten minutes ago. They were preceded by a four or five man breakaway, which meant that Christopher Froome's Team Sky had to set the pace, in order to defend team leader Bradley Wiggins' pink jersey. And who was at the very head of the peloton, doing his job? Yes indeed. Last night I sent him a warning over Twitter about the bumpy section of road right in front of our house, and it looks he took it to heart.
Update: Not really news for those who watched the stage into Utrecht, but here's Chris's Tweet after finishing 181st, 4.19 minutes behind the winner:
"That was absolute carnage!! Literally bodies EVERYWHERE"
Indeed, lots of ugly crashes. One of these, near the end, put Chris's leader, Wiggins, half a minute behind the lead pack, meaning that the hard work the team did at the head of the peloton all day to defend the pink jersey was for nothing.

Il Grande Giro

It has started, this afternoon here in Amsterdam, and I was a part of it--a little. It started this morning at our local bakery, which had prepared special pink Giro d'Italia strawberry cakes in honor of the race, which passes through here early in the second stage on Sunday. I got the last one. Then I rode over to Amsterdam to watch some of the prologue action and hopefully get on camera somewhere in my IS Corp kit so that my friends over in Milwaukee could see me. It was hard to find tv cameras, just like it was hard to find a good spot from where to watch the riders. While it was possible to find room along the guardrail, the crowds were easily big enough to make the good spots inaccessible, certainly by bike. So I rode alongside the course for a little ways, then checked out the start area on the Museum square. It was easy to get close to riders there, as the teams' warm-up areas were right alongside the public walking areas. No way could I get on camera near the start. What I should have done, I realized after watching the last twenty minutes of this prologue back home on t.v., was first to watch a little t.v. at home to see where the cameras were pointed, then ride to the city and find those spots. Oh well, I think I got something better in the end, after also checking out the finishing area, near the old Olympic stadium. It was crowded there too, although I did catch a glimpse of two-time winner Gilberto Simoni going through the final turn. But when I started back, there was a Team Sky rider going the same way, and we ended up riding back to the start area together. It was Chris Froome (I needed to ask) who, he said, had taken it easy on purpose. We got on the topic of the risks of the course as we maneuvered over some not entirely dry and treacherous tram rails. He said these tracks had been covered, mercifully, but that he had just taken a spill in the prologue of the Tour of Romandie due to risk-taking, and once was enough. (His cautious ride today was good for 138th place, 51 seconds out of first place, but one second ahead of former winner Damiano Cunego). We then, thanks to me, got on the subject of Matthew Busche, a member of the Radio Shack team (not here) who only a year ago was still on my old team, IS Corp, winning the Wisconsin state road race (a race I used to do until two years ago, though not in the elite category). Froome didn't know him but then talked about how in his own first season in Europe, on the Barloworld team, he got selected to do a lot of big races, including even the Tour de France. Working for Mauricio Soler he even managed to finish, although now he would not recommend introducing young guys to the peloton in this way. When I asked if we would see Soler again, he said he thought so, because his current team, Caisse d'Epargne, seems to be treating him pretty well. In his first year Froome did Paris-Roubaix too, but dropped out due to a mechanical with 50K to go (that might actually have been this year, I forget). He's in this Giro to help his leader, Bradley Wiggins, who is probably quietly hoping to contend for the overall victory. Looks like he's got his work cut out for him. The last thing we talked about was Froome's teammate, Ian Stannard, who isn't on the team for this race. I just had to tell him how awed I was by Stannard's performance in this year's so-called spring classic, Brussels-Kuurne-Brussels, where the riders, as became especially clear from Stannard's post-race interview on Flemish television, were, in Danny Chew's phrase, "brutally raped by the weather." Froome remembered that, and confirmed that Stannard had needed some time fully to recover. And with that, we had reached the Museum square, the location of the Team Sky team bus. I wished him luck as he turned off, promising to watch him closely the coming three weeks. (I should have warned him about the atrocious stretch of road right in front of our house in Nederhorst den Berg, which the peloton will hit during the first hour of tomorrow's second stage, but we ran out of time). As I'll be following the race closely on Flemish tv, I'll start a Froome watch here, starting tomorrow. Among other things, this will be the perfect excuse to tune in every day. Now all I've left to consider is whether to get on Twitter, so that I can follow Froome's tweets.

Security in the 21st Century

Without my knowing anything about it, there has occurred an international on-line "Security Jam" where experts from a number of organizations brainstormed (or maybe it was a bull session) about the new global security landscape. New York Times article here. Heavily leaning on Western experts, most of the focus was on NATO-EU collaboration. There appear to be fewer specifics on how other large countries such as Russia, China, India, and Brazil (all with a limited commitment to multilateralism) might approach this issue or Western leadership. Speaking of leadership, especially of the political kind, as in: the ability to take effective decisions at the appropriate time (relevant in light of EU dithering during the Greek financial crisis, an economic security threat if there ever was one), the report is remarkably quiet on that. Still, this seems to be a weakness of multilateral organizations such as NATO and the EU, to say nothing of the UN. On the one hand, they're fine mechanisms for consultation and common planning for long-term problems; whether they're good for handling acute crises unfortunately remains to be seen. Perhaps they can be, but it appears that for these organizations to be effective here, it would require political leaders to stand up, put their political capital on the table, and make some tough calls. The report of the Jam can be downloaded here.

Summer in April Cannot Last

But while it lasts, I have been enjoying it on the bike. Today is probably the high point, given the forecast, and the ride to work was really all you could ask for: almost 70, little wind, sunny. It was the first time this year that I had done the early morning part of the commute in shorts. As if that wasn't enough, it was also the first morning in short sleeves. The only un-summery part of my clothing was my vest, which I wore just in case but which turned out to be unnecessary. I felt particularly overdressed in it when, riding near IJburg, I ran into this old guy happily riding around shirtlessly. In all honesty, that was a bit of an exaggeration too. The old Trek is still in the shop, so I've been using the lighter, stiffer, better running Klein, and winter commuting is but a faint, hazy memory. We'll go back down to the 50s with a chance for rain (we need the rain) this weekend, so I'm sure I'll get a few reminders before summer really begins (and even then ...). But today, it's so nice, you could light a cigarette on the bike, or have it done for you. Why would a life-long non-smoker come up with an idea like this? Well, I just learned that some old cycling friends in Milwaukee, united these days in the Badger Velo Club, have recreated the famous "smoking cyclists" photo, taken probably in the 1930s or 1940s. They are not the first to think of this, but I think they've done the better job of it. Click the three links to judge for yourself.
Update: Riding home early tonight, I ran into the same old guy again, still without his shirt, and he didn't look any worse for wear. It was that kind of day, in April.