June 29, 2025

 Sunday. Left twenty to ten. Blacksmith. Summer day. Sun, light winds, warm, but not hot. People out, but never very busy. Irritating is that on days like these, more and more of those modern moving boxes with kids in them venture outside of the city. De Bilt, past Zeist toward Woudenberg. Griftdijk, Haarweg to Amerongse Berg. In Overberg a group of vintage mopeds, which fortunately headed north. Berg ok, with little traffic. Then Ginkelduin, Haarweg toward Hoogstraat and Ruiterberg. Maarnsegrindweg to Zeisterweg and back toward the city. Overnight another massive Russian air attack on Ukrainian cities. Air defense systems still mostly do their work, and Ukraine's friends had better keep supplying Kiev with more. It would be a good way to start working toward the 5% goal.

June 28, 2025

 Saturday. Left a little before ten. Blacksmith. Gray clouds with just a little blue here and there. Summer, winds out of the west. Crossing at the coffee roasters, I mistook the bus warning signal for the anticipated cyclists' green. It was a day of paying close attention, for people come out on a weekend day in these conditions. Alendorperweg to Rivier Pad with its wide, mowed banks. Breudijk to the world of Gerverskop. From Rodendijk and also Schutterskade, the view of Kockengen is pretty good, not ruined by large barns and the like. Majestic views of the polder to the left from the short elevated part of Galgerwaard. Boat and cabin traffic in Breukelen and all the way to Scheendijk, then peace again. The storks alongside the Bethuneweg on their nest with chicks. Both windmills at Oud Zuilen running. Vecht to Cycleworks, and eventually home. There must be certain bots, all based in the Global South and especially Brazil, checking in here regularly. Yesterday, a two-post day, 888 hits, more than in all of May, but never a comment or other sign of life. Speaking of yesterday, the CGTV appearance (radio, it turned out) went well enough. The other academic seemed a serious, knowledgable guy; the Europe correspondent of the station predictably anti-NATO and not very analytical. They do play it straight as far as I can see: a live broadcast (no editing), and you get the talking points, to which they stick closely during the broadcast, ahead of time. During the broadcast, we all get to address one of the talking points in order. And they let you finish.

The NATO Summit

 Tomorrow morning, I'll be on China Global Television Network's World Today. They have sent me the talking points. As a warm-up, I'll add some preliminary responses.

1. NATO just agreed to a massive increase in defense spending which Trump hailed as a “big win for Western civilization.” Does this mean NATO has emerged stronger and more united?

Stronger and more united than earlier this year, a low bar. Still, the unity on display this week is meaningful, if only because it also reflects how most European member states in recent months have taken more responsibility for their common defense, very much including Ukraine. The Alliance also kept the U.S. president within the fold, maybe pulled him a little closer even, and that certainly counts for something, also because it may reflect a realization in Washington that U.S. interests continue to be at stake in this part of the world, as they were in 1917, 1941, and so on and so forth. And so, U.S. allegiance to NATO may actually last.

2. Mark Rutte cited the rising threat from Russia as the primary reason for the spending hike, saying Moscow will be capable of launching an attack on NATO members within three to five years. How credible is that assessment, or is the threat being overstated to justify rearmament? 

The exact time-frame is uncertain, but Russia's intentions are not. Just this week, Putin said that "wherever a Russian soldier sets foot, that's ours." It's just the latest in a long line of actions and pronouncements confirming his hostility to the West in general and NATO in particular, and it also brings to mind how he has not accepted losing the sphere of influence Stalin established in 1945. His assault on Ukraine aims to end that state's independent existence, but it is also a first step in pushing back NATO from the old sphere of influence. 

 

3. The 5% defense spending goal brings NATO military investment to levels not seen since the Cold War. Could it trigger a new arms race? 

We have been in a new arms race for a while now, in Europe, in Asia, in de Middle East. 

4. European leaders now frame massive military spending as a necessity in an increasingly volatile world. But how much of this volatility has been created or worsened by Western policy decisions over the past 20 years? 

Just talking about Europe, and specifically Ukraine, the West has been faced with a dilemma in the past two decades: live up to its own principles and pronouncements and open a path for a democratic Ukraine to EU and NATO membership, versus risking an angry and eventually aggressive response from Moscow. By emphasizing the importance of the former over the risk of the latter, one could say that the West has contributed. But that conclusion assumes that trying to maintain a constructive relationship with Putin's regime could have succeeded. However, right up to February 2022, there was plenty of that (think of Nordstream 2), in spite of what everyone should have known about Putin's intentions since his outburst at the Munich Security Conference in 2007, certainly since his attack on Ukraine in 2014. So a better answer would be that, yes, the West has contributed to the volatility by not doing what it belatedly started doing with Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Western appeasement, instead of confrontation, helped to get us where we are now. 

5. During the summit, Trump likened the US strikes on Iran to the atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Do you find that kind of comparison worrisome, and does it signal a more aggressive doctrine that NATO may now be tied to? And Does NATO risk being drawn into US-led Middle East policies that may not align with European interests?

We would all be better off if we didn't pay so much attention every time the president says something on social media or elsewhere. As far as NATO is concerned, it is increasing its deterrent capabilities so as to remove any doubt in the mind of the adversary that a new attack will cost it way more--militarily, politically--than could possibly be gained. 

6. How do you view Mark Rutte’s flattery of Trump for his Iran strikes, even calling him “the Daddy”? Do you think he’s bending too far to keep Trump onside? Or is this just what modern transatlantic leadership looks like?

I would not want to be in Rutte's shoes right now. Let's just say that NATO had a rather successful summit meeting, one many people did not think was possible a couple of months ago. It's not all Rutte, but it certainly did not hurt to have a secretary-general who has managed to have a working relationship with this president.

7. Do you think the increased defense spending is enough to keep the US engaged in NATO? 

One can never really tell with the current administration, but since U.S. interests are at stake with a Europe that is prosperous and willing enough to keep buying U.S. products and able to handle most security challenges by itself, I would say: yes.

8. The 5% target could divert enormous national resources toward defense. What will be the social cost of this rearmament? And will leaders be able to balance domestic pressure with their commitment to the alliance?

It has been pointed out this week that a much less prosperous Western Europe managed to do this during the Cold War. Much of this is political, the ability of politicians to make the case to their populations, and nothing in these matters is automatic. But because of Russia's assault on Ukraine the populations of many European countries have already accepted that the security situation on the continent has deteriorated, and that this has consequences for the way of life in this part of the world. When we're talking about NATO today, it's not the old, Cold War alliance. Instead, it includes Eastern European countries who have a very different view of the Russian threat from, say, Spain or Italy. And it now includes Finland and Sweden, two countries that only joined after it became crystal clear in 2022 what Putin's intentions really are. 

9. Trump publicly attacked Spain for spending too little and threatened to impose higher tariffs on Spain for not meeting the 5% target. Are we seeing a dangerous fusion of security obligations and trade coercion?

See the beginning of the answer to question 5. 

10. As a product of the Cold War, is NATO increasingly out of step with today’s multipolar world? And do you think it’s still operating with a Cold War mindset which may now be exacerbating global insecurity rather than reducing it? 

NATO's strength has always been its ability to evolve with a changing international environment. After this week's summit, one could say that the alliance currently is as much a product of Putin's war as it is an inheritance of the Cold War. There are parallels with the Cold War, and Cold War thinking, today, but a much more relevant and dangerous mindset is the Russian imperial mindset pronounced and practiced by Putin. 

June 25, 2025

 Wednesday. Left around 6:45. Blacksmith. Warm, a little humid, little wind. Blauwkapel to Ruygenhoek. There, two lapwings in the field, a swan with two young in the water, and a stork right by the bike path (it flew-hopped across the canal as I approached). People at the swimming corner. Molenpolder to Nedereindsevaart. Westbroek (a couple of guys sitting outside at the bar), Achttienhoven, Korssesteeg. Dutch dinner time conditions, but there were more people taking advantage of a near perfect day. Egelshoek to Hollandsche Rading (where the restaurant was packed, with cars parked all along the road), and Maartensdijk, to the end of the Embranchementsweg. Headed toward Groenekan, passed by a loud, fast, stinking light motor bike; without wind the smell hangs around. A two-train wait at Groenekan, then de Bilt, and Utrechtseweg back into the city. No surprise to see the bars and restaurants full there also. This was the day of the NATO summit, which seems to have gone well enough. There have been many occasions in the past when allies have struggled to maintain a united front, to send a political message just credible enough for the alliance's military threat to remain real. This week, the language of the various statements was vague enough to paper over the contrast between the principles NATO is supposed to stand for and the beliefs and practices of a considerable number of its member governments--that of the largest member not excepted. And the pledge to increase defense spending, if not taken literally, is real, to judge from the steps the European members have been taking in recent months. Much juggling and follow-through remains on the table, but, having set a low bar for itself this week, you could see the alliance as having had a successful summit meeting.

June 23, 2025

 Left just after 9:15. Blacksmith, in spite of recent showers and lingering sprinkles. Cooler, with gusty winds out of the west, strong enough to bring down small branches. Good skies, with moving white and gray clouds and room for sun. Blauwkapel to Hooge Kampse Plas to Bilthoven and Den Dolder. The high-speed bike path to Amersfoort is finished--good for safe and swift riding, but in the end it's still a new concrete road alongside the woods where there used to be a trail and more trees. Probably a price worth paying if it gets some folks out of their cars. Berg by way of my Belgian segment, then down Utrechtseweg. At the Arnhemseweg a sudden, unexpected, and unobstructed view of the tower in the old city. Korte Bergstraat to tunnel to Soesterkwartier, which had just received a real rain shower, then Hilhorstweg. Coming through the left curve, suddenly the Oude Kerk in the distance. Up the Eng. The crops and wildflowers are rising fast. Left to Molenstraat, Smitsweg, and Dorpsstreek all the way to Wieksloterweg. Maartensdijk to Groenekan. Newspaper from Van der Neut. A guest column on who gets to have nuclear weapons and why, covering some relevant aspects but by no means all. As if to illustrate the extent to which the international system built after 1945 has disintegrated, it didn't contain even one reference to the NPT. 

June 21, 2025

 Saturday. Left at ten. Blacksmith. Clear blue sky (later some very vague, distant whiteness to the northeast), warm, breezes from the southeast. Vechten, Achterdijk, Hollendewagenweg, Nachtdijk. Goybrug with Ellen van Dijk passing on the roadway. Lekdijk with a few too many motorcycles. Recreational area at Tull en 't Waal busy, with lots more cars on the way. Plofsluis to Merwedekanaal, and a second Ellen van Dijk passage, this time she came up from behind as we merged at the Structuurbaan before the Blauwe Brug. Merwedekanaal back to Mos. Too sunny, too warm, too busy to see much that was interesting. In the news the kiss-of-death for the NATO 5% goal, since not only Spain, but now also Washington seeks an exception. Never miss an opportunity to throw a spanner into the works. This could be a way out: everyone seeks to match the current U.S. level of defense spending; this way the U.S. can continue to cover its many global commitments, and the European allies can use the extra funds to boost their own, collective defense while making the domestic trade-offs a little less daunting.  

June 18, 2025

 Wednesday. Left a little after ten. Blacksmith. Summer, with northwestern breezes and fairly uninteresting skies. Clear, but hazy in the far distance. Yellow bridge to Hermelijnvlinderpad. At one of those permanent table tennis tables I saw a middle-aged Chinese couple playing expertly, all by themselves. Alendorperweg, Rivierpad, Breudijk to the world of Gerverskop. The corn is on its way. At Gerverskop a swan couple in the tall grass, the heads of their chicks just visible. White and yellow lilies alongside the Rodendijk. Breukelen, Scheendijk, the oasis of the Veenkade. Vecht back to town. Newspaper at Mos. Now we have an ultimatum from Washington to Teheran. Complete surrender, or else. "Else" in this case in a few days could be something along the lines of "I never said that," but it could also be the beginning of something worse. A best case, "regime change," could simultaneously be its opposite. You break something, you own it, but the issuer of the ultimatum never owns anything; when the going gets tough or a long-term, calm commitment is required, it's someone else's problem. Long-term commitments overseas are a challenge in the best of circumstances, but now a positive U.S. contribution to a more benign Iranian future seems especially unlikely.