Who Wants To Be President?

Forget, for a moment, that right-wing zealots and conspiracy theorists at home view him as a danger to the country. And let's also put aside the financial-economic crisis, growing unemployment, and the fact that while this isn't over by a long shot, quite a few people seem to think that we're out of the woods and no real reform is required any more. Just think, instead, of what foreign policy looks like for President Obama at the moment. Especially, think of the customary national security briefing with which presidents traditionally start their work day. The focus this week of course is on Iran, which is no simple case of freedom v. tyranny (although that's still part of it), as many on the right seem to imply. But the more dangerous problem right now is probably North Korea, which has just upped the ante in its Cold War against the U.S. and its allies (South Korea, Japan). There hasn't been too much help from China, and some argue that Beijing may be using the North Koreans in their larger chess game with the U.S. for influence in East Asia. So now the U.S. is strengthening the defenses of Hawaii, in case Kim Yong-Il's next missile goes in that direction (as his government has threatened). There has been a new U.N. Security Council resolution, and there is a new resolve to intercept North Korean ships suspected of transporting either nuclear materials, missile techology, or both to other unsavory regimes. The sides aren't really on speaking terms, and neither is ready to back down. It reminds me of what someone wrote around the time of Obama's inauguration: it looks a little like 1961, when there was also a new, charismatic, but untested U.S. president coming into office determined to work things out internationally. JFK had to learn the hard way that that's easier said than done with an erratic opponent pursuing his own agenda. He screwed up by signing off on the Bay of Pigs invasion, had an acrimonious, unproductive meeting with Khrushchev in Vienna, and in general didn't get anywhere with his new agenda. During the Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962, he did perform admirably, of course, but so did--eventually--Khrushchev. If we call Kim Yong-Il (and Ahmedinejad, and Bin-Laden and friends, and Putin) Obama's Khrushchev, you see the fix the president is in. Because ultimately Khrushchev was not crazy or utterly cynical, something we really can't say of Obama's international nemeses. Perhaps we'll be reassured, but for now we'll have to assume the worst. It's not clear what can be done. While military responses to threats like North Korea's are very likely to make things worse, alternative approaches will probably also be ineffective. Hu Ziang argues that what Kim is after is "a reliable security guarantee" from Washington. But he does not explain how this would make Kim's regime more easy to live with--probably because he can't. Nobody can. Either way you go, it's likely to get worse. Anyone who wants Obama's job can raise their hand.