April 8, 2026

 Wednesday. Left 9:50. Blacksmith. Sunny, mild, moderate winds out of the east. Through the Berenkuil toward Zeist. Around town to the Tiendweg, then Driebergen. Akkerweg to Zuwe and Caspergouw. Rows of light green willow trees. The little fruit trees are beginning to blossom also. Dwarsdijk and Kapelleweg. Across a quiet ARK to the Lekdijk. Sun, peace, more and more cows, and lots of little lambs. Back by way of Plofsluis, Jutphase brug, Merwedekanaal. Mos with today's paper, which closed too early for the news about the truce in the Middle East, but lots of people have pointed out how little has been achieved, given the cost for all involved. The question remains whether, in the face of a criminal, fundamentalist regime such as the one in Teheran, a five-week bombing campaign works better than a sophisticated strategy of containment. The regime is still there, even if much diminished in its capabilities. What America has become under this administration at least has been on full display, as it is currently in Hungary, where the vice-president is openly campaigning for the authoritarian friend of Moscow. Speaking of Moscow: another piece in the same paper confirmed earlier impressions of a possible shift in the balance of power in the war. Apparently, Ukraine has regained some territory in the past two months while Russia has more and more trouble to replace its dead and wounded (a staggering 85,000 in the first three months of 2026). The same article also reported on how, in a recent exercise, some regular NATO units were quickly dispatched by a Ukrainian unit using its drone-based systems. Another confirmation of what we saw in recent weeks when the Ukrainian president visited Gulf nations: acquired the hard way, Ukraine's drone capabilities (both defensive and offensive) are now at the cutting edge of what makes a difference on the modern battlefield. In the not-too-distant future Europe may need Ukraine more than the other way around. Lots of things need to happen--and could still go wrong--before we really get there, but our world is already very different from the one we had just two years ago.