The Cold War and Iran

If history can help us think about contemporary problems, one has to think in general terms, without losing sight of the unique features of both the contemporary case and the historical analogy. So what, if anything, can Cold War history do for us with regard to present-day Iran? In the past, I've thought about East-West detente as a possible example: mutually antagonistic governments (and ideologies) finding ways of limited cooperation because they also have joint interests. That hasn't worked so well for Iran, so far. Obama seems to want to go down this path, but the past couple of weeks have made a detente with the islamic police state an even more distant prospect than it was before. The Wall Street Journal today suggests another Cold War analogy, that of U.S. support for the Solidarity opposition in Poland in the 1980s.

All of which means that there are opportunities for the Obama Administration to exploit, provided it envisions a democratic and peaceful Iran as a strategic American aim. That doesn't mean military confrontation with the mullahs. But it does require taking every opportunity to apply consistent pressure on Iran while exploiting its internal tensions and contradictions.

Granted, this so-called money quote is a bit meager, but at the same time it's worth considering what the West can now do to help the opposition keep up the pressure, what we can do to keep the mullahs on the defensive. It's not as if working for change through the regime is promising any quick rewards right now.

Summer Commuting

Now we're getting somewhere: 23-29 degrees Celcius all week (mid-70s to low-80s). Let's hope it lasts. Today was the first single jersey commute of the year. There have been many other nice days, but all a bit chilly in the morning for just one jersey. Everything is so much easier now: no layering, no jacket, no gloves or balaclava, no lights--just the bike, shorts, jersey, and socks. The warm weather makes the legs go good too. On top of all this, there was some fog this morning, which meant virtually no wind. Part of summer commuting is to find a long way to work and back. I used to have wonderful long versions of my commute in Athens, Ohio (some nice quiet extra climbing through town), Los Alamos, New Mexico (riding home from the lab by Bandelier), Pittsburgh (awesome climbs through all kinds of outlying neighborhoods), and even Milwaukee (where I lived really close to campus but on certain mornings got an extra mile or so along Lake Michigan). On my current commute, I don't really need any extra miles. But a couple of weeks ago I was forced to explore alternative routes due to a big construction project along my regular, 16 mile-long route. I've written about the IJburg-Muiden route. Last week, with my regular commuter in the shop, I had an opportunity to do this route on the Klein, meaning with a computer (yes, I took the risk of parking this still very fine bike in downtown Amsterdam for a day, and got away with it). On the way out I followed the Vecht river all the way to the end, at the small city of Muiden, then IJburg, and back to my regular route by way of the Nescio bridge. On the way home I rode East of Muiden to the Keverdijk. It turns out that's a good four miles longer than my usual route (18.4 and 18.2, versus 15.9 and 16.3). Four miles, three or four times a week, that's something. If you went the long way all year, it would add a few hundred miles to the very important annual total. Right now, it's just nice to have a choice, and to have the new route be even more scenic.

Helping The Newspapers

So far today, I've read two, and third may be on the way. I payed for two of them, which is the message of this short post (my reading chair in the sun is a much better place, right now). The Dutch papers have been reporting on a government-sponsored study just released on how the newspaper business could be helped. That's obfuscating, unacceptable passive voice, except that this is Holland and therefore it's implied that the question is whether government should or should not do something. One of the study's recommendations is to consider a tax on internet subscriptions (your connection at home), in order to remind users that the news they're getting that way really isn't free. The revenues would go into an already existing fund with which the government helps maintain diverse and independent news outlets. That the newspapers need help, just about everybody accepts. But it would really be much better if the government stayed out of it, at least with redistributive schemes such as these. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, it would be much better if people who appreciate the value of these professional news organizations (on-line or print) would be willing to support those organizations with their paid subscriptions or frequent incidental purchases. Reader contributions only pay part of a paper's bills, but enough of them, as evidence of reader commitment, will also boost advertising sales (probably the main chunk of a paper's income). I could go on and on, talking about this in greater detail (the value of holding a paper newspaper in your hands; the importance for a democracy of having many competing, professional newspaper organizations where stuff gets verified, placed in context) and some day (when it rains) I'm sure I will.

Funny Moment On The Sunday Ride

On the way to the medieval city of Oudewater, we're riding through the speck of a town called Blokland when up ahead on the narrow path we see what seem to be two other cyclists. That's always a moment of anticipation, because meeting other cyclists like that, you can get to ride with new people. Something different, and potentially something exciting. But as we get closer it turns out they're a middle-aged couple (Asian looking, if I remember correctly) out for a walk, wearing Rabobank cycling jerseys of the team's early period. You just never see that. They're cycling jerseys, and the Dutch care about sticking to what's supposed to happen. Unlike the much more easy-going Americans, they don't wear whatever feels comfortable. Instead, they wear what tradition requires you to wear in a given situation. Personally, all I could do was try to process this unusual sight. John, at the head of our three-man train, however, was more quick to the draw. As we rode by them, he called out: fietsen vergeten? (forgot your bikes?)

Who Wants To Be President?

Forget, for a moment, that right-wing zealots and conspiracy theorists at home view him as a danger to the country. And let's also put aside the financial-economic crisis, growing unemployment, and the fact that while this isn't over by a long shot, quite a few people seem to think that we're out of the woods and no real reform is required any more. Just think, instead, of what foreign policy looks like for President Obama at the moment. Especially, think of the customary national security briefing with which presidents traditionally start their work day. The focus this week of course is on Iran, which is no simple case of freedom v. tyranny (although that's still part of it), as many on the right seem to imply. But the more dangerous problem right now is probably North Korea, which has just upped the ante in its Cold War against the U.S. and its allies (South Korea, Japan). There hasn't been too much help from China, and some argue that Beijing may be using the North Koreans in their larger chess game with the U.S. for influence in East Asia. So now the U.S. is strengthening the defenses of Hawaii, in case Kim Yong-Il's next missile goes in that direction (as his government has threatened). There has been a new U.N. Security Council resolution, and there is a new resolve to intercept North Korean ships suspected of transporting either nuclear materials, missile techology, or both to other unsavory regimes. The sides aren't really on speaking terms, and neither is ready to back down. It reminds me of what someone wrote around the time of Obama's inauguration: it looks a little like 1961, when there was also a new, charismatic, but untested U.S. president coming into office determined to work things out internationally. JFK had to learn the hard way that that's easier said than done with an erratic opponent pursuing his own agenda. He screwed up by signing off on the Bay of Pigs invasion, had an acrimonious, unproductive meeting with Khrushchev in Vienna, and in general didn't get anywhere with his new agenda. During the Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962, he did perform admirably, of course, but so did--eventually--Khrushchev. If we call Kim Yong-Il (and Ahmedinejad, and Bin-Laden and friends, and Putin) Obama's Khrushchev, you see the fix the president is in. Because ultimately Khrushchev was not crazy or utterly cynical, something we really can't say of Obama's international nemeses. Perhaps we'll be reassured, but for now we'll have to assume the worst. It's not clear what can be done. While military responses to threats like North Korea's are very likely to make things worse, alternative approaches will probably also be ineffective. Hu Ziang argues that what Kim is after is "a reliable security guarantee" from Washington. But he does not explain how this would make Kim's regime more easy to live with--probably because he can't. Nobody can. Either way you go, it's likely to get worse. Anyone who wants Obama's job can raise their hand.

Summer Program Announced - Pressure Rises

Last week my Utrecht group published the program for its annual week in the mountains (where we race each other up the passes), and riding now is no longer about taking advantage of the occasional nice day we get around here. We get to do the Col de la Madeleine, Col du Glandon, Col de la Croix de Fer, Col du Galibier, Mt Ventoux, among others, in six days of riding/racing. Having read the plan, I decided that the time for self-punishment is now, and so on Saturday morning I rode out to Amerongen by myself. Any way you do an Amerongen loop from Nederhorst den Berg, it is a real ride, and if you do it all by yourself it's work. My lower back started to make itself felt even before the Amerongse berg, and on the way home (Ginkelduin, Austerlitz, Maartensdijk) I had to sit up regularly to get some relief. Interestingly, the discomfort went away temporarily after I rode up the Austerlitz "hill." But I was pretty pooped when I got home after almost 71 miles at an 19.2 average (3 hours and 41 minutes). I didn't feel up to the Sunday ride the next morning (and avoided getting rained on by staying home), but did a little loop at the end of the day. I wasn't particularly stressed out, but still yelled at some idiot tourists. They were standing in the middle of the bikepath on the Loenersloot bridge over the Amsterdam Rijnkanaal, and one of them was taking pictures. The other was facing me and could see me coming from at least 100 meters. Normally, he'd warn his friend, and together they'd make enough room for a cyclist to get through (it's a bikepath, after all, and it's nice not to be hit by passing bicycles). This is what I assumed, and it seemed to be confirmed when the photographer started to move out of the way when I got near. But something wasn't quite right in the way he did it (I don't think he ever looked my way, for example), so I slowed down as I prepared to pass through. And wouldn't you know: just as I reached them, the guy started to walk back, totally unaware of my presence. His friend (or should we say: enemy?) obviously had never warned him. I did get through, and as I passed I let out a rather loud, blasphemous "JFC!" I probably scared them, and maybe they were foreign tourists, because Dutch people in these situations know about self-preservation. I guess an "oops" would have been an option too, but the cluelessness I encountered seemed to require something stronger. People don't have to jump out of the way just because someone on a racing bike is approaching. But if you're blocking the bikepath, how about your own safety? I got to focus on something else soon afterward, when on the way to Baambrugge a Smartcar passed me at a slow speed. I rode in its draft for about a mile, doing 32 m/h at one point. I could not see much up ahead because its rear window was blocked, so it wasn't very comfortable, but it certainly kept my mind from lingering at the previous encounter. This morning, getting out of the saddle on the Nescio-bridge, I noticed the legs have not yet fully recovered from Saturday's effort.

I Didn't Fully Explore This ...

... in my recent op-ed on the American right (last Monday also in the Amsterdam daily Het Parool), but Frank Rich and Paul Krugman in the New York Times do: the sizable extremist, violent, right-wing minority in the U.S., and the way so-called respectable news outlets, celebrities, and politicians feed their mania. Of course, in addition to the killings at the Washington Holocaust Museum and the church of Kansas abortion doctor George Tiller--used, appropriately, as evidence to underscore the seriousness of the anti-Obama frenzy on the right-- there was another politically motivated murder recently, that of an American soldier outside a recruiting station in Arkansas. It got much less press than the Kansas and D.C. shootings, probably because most would not see it as part of a larger, left-wing anti-military frezy. And that's probably correct.

My Op-Ed on the Political Right in the U.S.

In the Nederlands Dagblad today (in Dutch). How a combination of Obama's popularity and political skill on the one hand, and radicalization symbolized by Cheney and Limbaugh on the other, have relegated the political right in the U.S. to the fringes. There may not re-emerge a serious, national opposition until after the next presidential election because it could well take that long for credible new Republican Party leaders to come up from the current ranks of pragmatic, principled, center-right mayors and governors (this would exclude the Sarah Palins of the world).

Leader Error on the Sunday Ride

On any group ride, if you know the roads and are also the strongest, you're more responsible for getting everyone home together than the others. Today I fell down on the job (together with co-leader John). Four of us Whisper Power riders did the fine Amerongen loop (with the Amerongse "berg" as the real target, the high point, and the turn-around), and though we were riding together well, on the hill it was clear that John and I were the stronger ones. We're also the people with the most experience on the roads between there and our Vechtstreek villages on Nigtevecht and Nederhorst den Berg. We went wrong after the coffee stop, when we were headed for Soesterberg. It's a section where it's fun to let 'er rip a little if you feel good: first you have to go up and over the freeway, then it's a few miles of flat, spacious, and usually quiet road. So I hit the "hill" with some effort (this is where we lost the other two), and once past the top John and I, together with a stranger who had grabbed our wheel, rotated on the flat section doing between 24 and 27 m/h (thereby putting even more time into the others). Our big mistake was not to wait at the end. Instead we took what the two of us knew to be the next turn, and only began to look back and wait at the next light. Nobody. We rode back--still nobody. I had my phone, reached one of the others, and it turned out they had gone straight. They thought they knew where they were, and we talked about a place to meet up. But they were lost, and my phone had run out of juice. So John and I rode home comfortably while the other two ended up looping all the way back to the coffee place. From there, they eventually found their own way home. They were good sports about it, but it wasn't supposed to go that way and it was our fault. Next week, coffee and apple pie is on the instigator of it all (that would be me).

This Unusual Week of Commuting

The work on the freeway bridge crossing the Amsterdam Rijnkanaal, the one my bikepath goes under, took more time than expected, so all week (and last Thursday already) I had to find detours. My favorite was the big, empty stretch of asphalt on the other side of the canal in the recreational area of the new Amsterdam neighborhood (built, literally, in the lake) IJburg. Coming from Amsterdam, you get there by crossing the new Nesciobrug, actually a little climb if there's a headwind. It's odd to have such a wide road in an area where no car is supposed to go, and I think it was built for construction purposes when the IJburg project got underway. I think it's roughly on the old dike, beyond which the lake (and prior to 1932, the sea) used to start. In 1983, when as a student I lived in nearby Diemen, I'd occasionally run there, on days I'd do a 15 miler or so. (Those days are long, long gone). Today, it looks nothing like it used to there, it's all been run through the planning mill. Still, at the end, you do get on a bikepath that runs very nicely along the old sea dike for about a mile (with sheep roaming freely), until you emerge at the Maxis superstore, on the road to Muiden, where, on the way home, I'd head next. Then I'd go on to the Hakkelaarsbrug, near Muiderberg. I had a tailwind, the times I rode there this week, and thought I was going at a decent pace. Nothing remotely hard, just spinning the 39x15 or even 14, but compared to the pace I got used to last winter, it felt pretty good. But on two days I was passed by: one guy on a hybrid, also a commuter, riding fatter tires and softer shoes, and shortly after that an overweight guy on some kind of mountainbike wearing a pair of red soccer shorts. The latter also passed the guy on the hybrid, probably also to his surprise. Both were working, and I wasn't, but I have to admit to feeling a little defensive. Part of me wanted to accellerate and pass both of them, so as to show that earlier, I was just taking it easy. The third guy, yesterday, got to me even more. It was a tailwind again, and this time I was working a little, using the 39x14, probably doing something like 19 or 20 m/h. And there comes this guy on what looks like a regular bike. Older again than me, or so it looked. It was a nice bike, but with fenders rack, regular handlebars--probably one of these new, all decked-out, light-weight touring bikes. He had changed into something sporty, was pushing a big gear, and he flew by me. What the ...?? After following the bikepath to the other side of the road about halfway through I decided to speed up and close the gap--not pass him, just pull up behind him and let myself drop back again. He had about 200 meters on me when I started (keeping it in the same gear), and there was about one kilometer to my turn off, and I didn't quite get there. Am I getting enough out of my commutes? I thought I did, and the weekend performance seems to confirm it (also the way I feel at the end of the day). But there are definitely people out there with a different approach to riding to work. I'll just have to let them do it their way.

I Voted

Can't say it gave me a warm feeling, but I did it, casting my vote for a candidate who seems to take the European project seriously. Her party's slogan is: "Europe? Yes." Doesn't get the heart rate up either, but neither does its subject. But it does make a simple, important point. I haven't evolved much, by the way, as a voter, because my first time at the ballot box thirty years ago (also for the European Parliament), I voted the same way. Now I'll have to watch the performance of "my" representative in Brussels, one in more than 700. For starters, I hope that every once in a while she'll refuse to make the ridiculous monthly trek and back to Strasbourg. It would be a symbolic step, but symbolism matters sometimes. Good luck.

Obama's Speech

Posted in full by Andrew Sullivan, under the title The Biggest Speech of his Presidency. I just read it, and it's a good speech, one that doesn't mince too many words. There's all kinds of stuff all kinds of people would rather not hear. Will everybody get to see it in full? That's one immediate measure of its effect. U.S. reactions should be interesting to watch also. But when a U.S. president, especially this U.S. president, gives a big speech like this, it matters. Follow-up by his administration will too, of course.

The Precious Right to Vote--But for Brussels-Strasbourg?

It will be my first opportunity to participate in an election since returning to the Netherlands last summer: tomorrow's elections for the European Parliament. It's easy to point out the preposterous aspects of this weak body: they have to travel from their regular meeting place in Brussels to Strasbourg (you guessed it, that's in France) because the French won't give up on this ... what is it really? An embarassment mostly. Of all the cynical remarks you can hear about "Europe" these days, the expensive monthly move to Strasbourg (200 million taxpayer Euros a year) comes up the most. Then there are all the little rules they manage to come up with for all walks of life, things that should either be left to national or local authorities, or just be subject to market forces. In fact, if you look at the way the whole EU edifice works (or doesn't)--the bureaucracy, the rules, the perks, the waste, the self-importance--it's very easy to turn your back. However, stepping back a little (still keeping in mind that eventually, annoying bureaucatic excesses can threaten the viability of the vision they're supposed to serve) you have to recognize the other side of "Europe," that of the historical vision and accomplishment. The single market and currency, but especially the underlying determination to go about the continent's business in a peaceful, collaborative way--all this may now seem routine, but in light of Europe's history it's quite a feat. And as with everything human-made: it can't be taken for granted. So rather than worrying about how much more cumbersome, arrogant, and wasteful "Brussels" may get, I'm going to emphasize how much worse off we'd probably be without it, and how there could be backsliding if it turned out that there was no constituency any more for the kind of collaboration we've seen in Europe since World War II. And I'm trying to remember that there remain millions and millions of people around the world today who would very much like to have the opportunity to vote--even if it's for an imperfect body like the European Parliament. Which doesn't mean I've figured out yet whom to vote for. But I'll come up with something, I still have more than 24 hours.

Finding a Bike Store--Follow Up

I was going to check if Hans Voorn, of the Hommes Wielersport bike store in Soest, was in the Ronde van Wijk bij Duurstede with me, back in 2002. I found the program, and there is a Hans Voorn on the list for this masters ("veteranen") race, but it's probably the father. Hans Voorn the younger did use to race, but his dad reportedly has been racing forever. Someone told me yesterday that he recently won a race somewhere. And come to think of it, Hans Voorn the younger didn't look so old when I met him the other day--he's probably not even 40 yet. So I probably raced with his dad, and I'm sure he kicked my ass.