May 31, 2026

Sunday. Left around 9:40. Blacksmith. Mostly sunny, warm,  light winds out of the northwest. Biltstraat to and through Berenkuil, toward Zeist. Utrechtseweg to Driebergseweg and Driebergen. A Sunday morning. Quiet everywhere, except for later, around Maarn, when the route overlapped with an event ride. No inevitable stops, in spite of some red lights. Doorn to Ruiterberg. Maarnse Grindweg to Maarn and Quatre Bras. Left and up, and back toward the detour at Zeist. De Bilt and Blauwkapelseweg to Biltse Rading and home. Romania was hit by a so-called errant Russian drone; also last week, we saw images of Lithuanian civilians in a bomb shelter: as Russia seems to test NATO credibility, there is not too much immediate action by the alliance. Alliance members do, of course, continue to support Ukraine, which remains the most important way to put pressure on the Kremlin. But beyond the big picture, where Russia is really not winning, eventually the question will have to be answered whether NATO can continue to shrug off Russian provocations through statements and little else. There must be ideas for a proportional counter-provocation near Kaliningrad, for example, just to let the Kremlin know that NATO really is capable of acting militarily. Or maybe there aren't, since it may well be impossible to get all 32 member states to commit to something like that, especially since the government of the most powerful (though not necessarily capable) member state wants to be friends with the man in the Kremlin. If counter-punching is, indeed, asking too much, the European member states instead had better invest heavily in anti-drone and anti-ballistic missile systems and sit tight. If they are lucky, Ukraine in the meantime will bring the Russian regime to its knees. If they continue to be lucky after that, perhaps Ukraine will then still be interested in military and other forms of cooperation. In such a case, Kiyv will hold a lot of cards, and if it has any sense, Europe will adjust its current positions on, for example, EU membership accordingly. Let's not hold our breath.