May 23, 2026

Saturday. Left at ten. Blacksmith. Warm, sunny, light to moderate winds out of the southwest. A little maintenance. Singel to Koningsweg and Wayen. Goslings and baby goats. Langeweg to ARK and Plofsluis. There seem to be more insects than in recent years. Plenty of barges around the Beatrix locks, but one section reserved for pleasure boats. Vreeswijk to Jutphaas, then ARK to gele brug and Cycleworks. Weekend paper in the hot sun at Møs. Analysis of the recent NATO shenanigans of the U.S. administration. Combined with Moscow's provocations, they underline the urgency for concrete European steps--short-term and longer-term--to develop its own capabilities. As Russia will feel more besieged in its war against Ukraine, the chances increase for some desperate, provocative action against Ukraine's greatest supporters. Equally important as credible military options in such a case will be alliance coherence. Given Washington's current unreliability, in practice this will mean joint action by the other members. Regardless of the nature of the specific Russian provocation, addressing it will likely have to occur in conjunction with discussions (let's hope it will just be discussions) for an end to Russia's war against Ukraine. And so the temptation will arise to emphasize diplomacy before Moscow has been given an appropriate bloody nose (a proportional counter move to whatever form the provocation may take). The American president has managed, for all intents and purposes, to split the alliance, we may soon find out whether the political will exists in Europe to defend what's left of its credibility.