May 7, 2026

Thursday. Left around 10:15. Blacksmith. Start of the app-less era, because when the tools become so important as to determine success or failure, things have gone out of proportion. Blue skies with some white clouds in the distance, slowly coming in from the south. Light winds out of the northeast. Fairly mild. Getting underway, school kids tossing an empty can onto the street--early dissonant. Yellow bridge to Alendorp and Rivierpad. Full-on spring, with grasses and wildflowers thriving, mowing underway, fat lambs and only a few little ones. A grebe nesting at Gerverscop. Lots of birdsong from Scheendijk to Veenkade and beyond. Trekking cyclists, and the other kinds. A stop at Møs [it's just a matter of depressing the "o" to get the options] and the paper. In the news growing evidence that the Russian regime, particularly its president, is losing its grip. Apparently Russians are withdrawing large amounts of cash. This comes on top of the extreme security measures surrounding the annual World War II victory parade, and the earlier news on how security around the president himself has been tightened. The man seems down to various desperate measures, which by no means are imaginary: the threatened massive strike on downtown Kyiv, for example. But there are other targets in Ukraine, and the Russian military has options not yet used, even short of nuclear weapons. And the western neighbors are right to worry about some provocation, or worse, in their direction--it's a real question if NATO is ready, militarily or politically. Who can get into the Russian president's head to know how he views his predicament? We're getting closer to finding out what happens when a nuclear-armed regime gets in a desperate position. It's the kind of thing you never want to experience, and perhaps it can still be avoided. But who does one address in Moscow to indicate that there may be a way forward after this war concludes and Ukraine preserves its independence? And exactly who might "one" be to Russia's West? The current regime in Washington? Even if it wanted to find a way out acceptable for Kyiv, where is its credibility? Alternatively, "Europe" once again does not seem ready to speak credibly and with a single voice. By process of elimination, it seems Ukraine itself would be most suited. Not only is it gaining the upper hand in the war, as a close relative to the Russians it would potentially have the most impact if it was able to convey that, provided its independence is respected fully and some way is found for Russia to make amends for what it has inflicted on Ukraine and its people, peaceful coexistence should be possible. What would also need to happen, and no outsider can influence, is a Russia no longer seeing itself as an empire but instead reformed to an extent where self-determination or autonomy for peoples outside or even within its borders no longer can be construed as a threat to Russia itself. So we're both back, and much closer, to where the exit always was to be found: a new leadership in Moscow, a new outlook on itself and the world in Russia at large. The Soviet Union miraculously ended peacefully and with a whimper; whether we'll get lucky twice in a row is not guaranteed by any means.