Sunny Coffee Ride

We're headed for spring. When you go out just before nine am, as I did again this morning, the sun is just the sun. It's still low in the sky, but it's no longer red or rising at that hour. We are, of course, more than a month past the winter equinox. One day last week I came home at 5:45 pm. I had run my lights the final half hour, but riding into town I also realized that I had never felt the need to take off my sunglasses. I was all bundled up this morning, because last night Weerstation de Arend predicted that the windchill this morning would be -11 Celcius, which is getting into serious territory. There was also supposed to be a stiff east wind. The wind was there, but it really wasn't that cold. The temperature gauge in Loosdrecht said it was exactly zero Celcius; the one in Maartensdijk had it one above. It was a little bit of work, riding into the wind, but it really wasn't bad. I got to Lage Vuursche a few minutes before ten. Our server had redone her hair. Not recognizing her silloutte walking in, I thought at first that she might not be working. But she was, and she brought out our coffees without us having to order them first. Regulars. Utrecht had chosen the tractor, so for much of the way home I was by myself. It was eventful, however: swan on the ice in Westbroek; two girls on bikes in Polder Bethune riding out onto the road right in front of me, just using their ears to watch for traffic (a common occurence both in the U.S. and over here); and the same old guy who a couple of weeks ago, riding a tandem with his wife along the Vecht, looked funny at my balaclava did so again today. I think he and his wife just come out on cold days to see if they can embarrass me with their bare, grey heads. But even though I'm not nearly as old, I'm still old enough not to care, except about being warm, to the point where I'd much rather be overheating a little than the other way around.

Obama and Putin: So Far, So Good

Exactly where it began one could argue over (Obama's campaign? Russia's economic and political troubles? The recent gas row with Ukraine?), but last week there was the news that Russia would help NATO find new ways into Afghanistan (other than Pakistan). Then, in their first telephone conversation, Obama tells president Medvedev that he's in no hurry to install Bush's planned anti-missile system in Poland and the Czech Republic. Yesterday, Moscow answered by saying that for its part it's in no hurry to put new missiles in the Kaliningrad enclave between Poland and Lithuania. Also yesterday, Putin said we're all in the financial-economic crisis together. Are these preliminary exchanges leading up to more serious talks about cooperation against Iran? Regardless, it could be seen as Russia signalling (and Obama understanding) that we can do business, if we can just give each other things we need and meanwhile shut up about stuff like human rights. It's awfully early, but so far, so good.

Seagull, Duck, Swan

The weather has been dry, cold, and sunny recently. Riding home along the Vecht at the end of the day, yesterday, there was a beautiful red sun low above the horizon ahead of me. Because of the dampness, it turned pink as it grew in size on the way down. There was the beginning of a new layer of ice in the tiny canals that run through the fields, and it was cold enough during the day for it still to be there at dusk. Riding in just now, this morning, it was as cold as it has been on any of my commutes this year--confirmed by the freezing over in many places of the Vecht river. Outside of town I first saw a seagull standing on the river; then, a few miles down the road, two ducks; and eventually, just outside of Weesp, there was a swan. It looked like it had first been in the water, plowing forward through the ice, but near the middle of the river it had climbed on top of the ice, and there it was, upright, observing the frozen river from its elevated, still perch. A seagull on the ice isn't worth mentioning, but a swan, then you have something.

The U.S. and Germany--Germany and the U.S.?

The first part of the title is covered nicely in Roger Cohen's column today. However, we don't read a lot about how Germany could contribute to a more productive transatlantic relationship. I just did a piece on this myself, wondering if "Europe" will be able to band together and line up in support of U.S. leadership under Obama. (Everyone wants Obama to succeed--but will Europeans put their money where their mouths are, for example in Afghanistan, when the time comes, as it surely will?). Cohen is good at pointing out how the U.S.-German relationship has worked during the Cold War and how Germany continues to be a crucial partner in Europe. But there isn't too much about, for example, anti-Americanism in Germany today, or about support for Putin's Russia there. I agree, there's still much more that unites Germany and the rest of Europe with the United States than divides them. And we'd all be much worse off if we went our separate ways in the world. In fact, the word desperately needs the "West" to act together where possible. But the relationship needs work, and the work needs to be done on both sides of the Atlantic. Let's watch how Obama handles the transatlantic relationship; but let's also watch the European response. (Where's John Vinocur when you need him?)

Piet Griffioen, R.I.P.

Writing this title, it still doesn't register. There was stuff to report from today's coffee ride, but when I got home I learned that my friend Piet had suddenly died, yesterday. His heart gave out, just weeks after his 60th birthday. Piet was, among many other things, a dedicated bicycle commuter (four times a week, an hour-and-a-half each way, summer and winter, on the road by 6:30 am, back around 7:30 pm), but he was also a friend of almost thirty years, and one of the most good-natured and kind people I have ever known. We car-pooled to the same evening school in the early 1980s; along with other friends visited numerous performances by original American blues men and women; as part of the same group (also including his long-time partner Trees) regularly went to see Freek de Jonge (just last month, I ran into him and Trees at Freek's most recent show); we have spent countless hours at his place, hanging out and listening to more music (Piet had been to the notorious first Rolling Stones concert in the Netherlands, in Scheveningen--ended prematurely because the crowd started breaking down the theater); and there was a good deal of cycling in our friendship also. Back in the 1980s, Piet could go incredibly long at a very impressive pace, especially if you realized that he didn't exactly live the life of an athlete. He was on my first Markermeer loop (1982--it would be more accurate to say I was along on his Markermeer loop), and this totally flat century didn't seem to bother him in the least (being a runner, not a cyclist, back then, I suffered like a dog). I never did the longer, 200 mile full loop around the IJsselmeer with him, but those who did basically had the same experience. There were many other rides, and there should have been more--I was looking forward to getting more after returning to the Netherlands. In the end, I only got two; only twice did I run into Piet on the way home from Amsterdam last semester. After the first time, I started doing his route. We then joked about how he was trying to time his ride home so that he could avoid having to do my pace. The two times we did ride together I slowed down a little, and maybe he had to work a little harder, but they were wonderful rides back to Nederhorst den Berg (where Piet lived all his life), with too little time to talk. I'm glad I got those moments, but it will be a while before I fully realize (to say nothing of accept) that there will not be any more.

Not Lance's Best Interview

Today, in Australia, commenting on Floyd Landis's return to the peloton, next month in California:

"Other people serve their time just like everybody else, and when their time is up they get to go back to work,” Armstrong said. “Sometimes I get frustrated when people will pooh-pooh his return, when you’re going to stand up and cheer when David Millar returns. It’s the same thing. There was a suspension, (now) get back on the bike and let’s race.

British cyclist Millar was banned from cycling for two years in 2004 after admitting to using EPO earlier in his career.

“There’s no point in criticizing (banned cyclist Ivan) Basso or criticizing Landis,” added Armstrong. “I mean, you’ve paid your penalty. That’s normally the way society works. Let’s forgive and forget and get on down the road.”

My buddy seems to forget, although of course he knows full well, that Millar has confessed to using doping and since that time has become a vocal supporter of a more credible anti-doping system in professional cycling. Landis, instead, has continued to deny doing anything wrong (although during a notorious telephone conversation with Greg LeMond August 2006 he implicitly acknowledged breaking the rules). And Basso? He is another Lance friend. Well, he did confess, but only to the intention of sometime, perhaps, using the blood he had stored in Spain with Dr. Fuentes of Operation Puerto fame. You can certainly believe this if you want--we live in the free world, as they say. Yes, Landis and Basso have served their time, so they're certainly entitled to a new beginning. But let's not pretend their situation--or the respect they now deserve--is identical to Millar's. The fact that Lance did just that today doesn't say good things about his new commitment to clean bike racing.

Russia as a Partner

In today's papers, a report that Russia will now cooperate with the U.S. to develop alternative supply routes into Afghanistan to those via Pakistan, which have been in trouble for a while. It would certainly seem to support those who argue that the West has nothing to gain from confronting Moscow over questions such as Georgia's territorial integrity and political independence, as the Putin regime can (and perhaps will) provide crucial cooperation in too many vital international situations. But this Russian regime would be some partner. After all, in the same paper we're reminded of the execution-style (and possibly for-hire) murder of Stanislav Markelov, the human rights lawyer who for years stood up against lawlessness, war crimes, and gangsterism in Putin's Russia and who had just publicly argued against the early release of a Russian colonel jailed for war crimes in Chechnya in 2000 during Putin's war there. Of course the prime-minister and his president were not involved with this--but in the state they have built and in which they exercise ever greater control, this kind of thing has become a very regular occurence. Some partner--and yet, there's probably no way around working with these guys, just as there's no alternative to working with the Chinese regime that cut the references to human rights and to communism out of its broadcast and print editions of Obama's inaugural address yesterday. Still, being partners is not the same as pretending to be friends, and just like Russia can turn off the gas to pressure the West, we should withold things from Russia (and China) because of despicable state behavior.

Newspaper Ride

Already the third ride this year, not counting commutes and other transportation rides that also count toward the annual mileage total (counting everything, I'm at seven right now, and just over 200 miles). After yesterday's moving ceremonies at the Capitol, it seemed a nice idea to get today's International Herald Tribune. So I called a bookstore in Hilversum to ask if they could put one aside, and around 1:30--let's call it my lunch break--I made my way over there the usual way: Horstermeer, 's-Graveland, Spanderswoud, past where my old high school no longer stands (het Nieuwe Lyceum), past what used to be the VARA building. It was mostly cloudy, chilly but not cold, with very moderate winds out of the south. The paper was there, and tonight I'll reread the inaugural address. The ride home was part of the standard newspaper ride also: Loosdrecht, Loenen, Vreeland. 21 miles, and they all count. In some canals and lakes there was still ice, but in most places the ducks are in charge again, and the forecast says we'll be riding a lot more than we'll skate, the coming week.

Oppenheimer Really Wasn't a Spy ...

... but Hiss really was, and other Cold War espionage news in an upcoming new book based on notes taken by Alexander Vassiliev, a former Soviet espionage agent, from secret KGB files. The book will be out in May. His co-authors, John Earl Haynes and Harvey Klehr are very reputable experts, and if they are willing to trust Vassiliev's notes without the customary option to review the files themselves, so am I. Still, it would be nice if more Cold War era files became accessible in Moscow. We'd avoid reviews like Michael Dobbs' piece on Fursenko's and Naftali's Khrushchev's Cold War, a few years ago (the second review here). Nice, but not very likely.

Lovely News from Milwaukee

One of the good things about living in Milwaukee was that it had its own, independent bookseller, Harry W. Schwartz. There were four locations, and they were all good; all well-stocked, expertly-staffed, pleasant places to shop for books. They had a "give back" program, where you could choose a local charity so that one percent of your purchase would be donated to it (by Schwartz). A pillar also to the community, in other words. They had remainder tables, so you could always find good books at affordable prices. They frequently brought authors to their stores for readings and book launches. And they were pretty good at ordering anything they might not have in stock. Now they're throwing in the towel, after 82 years. No cut backs, no closing of one or two stores--they're going to be gone. Say goodye to this, and much more; say goodbye to a good chunk of quality of life, quality of community in Milwaukee. Money quote from their announcement:

Unfortunately, profound shifts in how people shop and equally great
changes in the book industry left us and many other well-established
bookshops with dwindling sales.

I can't help but think of that recent New Yorker cover showing two doors: at one, a man is locking the door to his bookstore; next door, a woman is signing for a package--it has the Amazon logo on it. That's it in a nutshell, because the past 82 years have seen multiple economic crises, but somehow Harry Schwartz has managed to weather them all. Once again, just as with newspapers (see my earlier diatribes), I think this comes down to not enough people who should know better doing the right thing. Maybe the Amazon crowd really doesn't care. But somehow I hope they feel at least a little bit of guilt today.

Update: I just see that two stores are being taken over by Schwartz managers and re-launched under different names later this spring. One more chance for everyone to ask critical questions of their book-buying behavior; one more chance to start doing the right thing. Yes, this will cost a little, but at this point in the crisis everyone should understand that you can't get good things for free.

Coffee Ride: The Return

Boats have been making their way through the rapidly disappearing ice during the past week, and from the bike this morning I could see that in several places where we skated only a week ago, one would hardly think of winter any more. Not that it was warm, but it was well above freezing, with the standard, stiff Dutch southwesterly winds. This meant I had to work, cold on the bike on the way out of town, and I didn't reach the speed required (a modest 17 m/h) to get to Lage Vuursche in one hour until 2.5 miles into the ride. Not that it really matters--it's the Coffee Ride, after all. Plus, I still got to Maartensdijk in time to run into the Utrecht delegation, a first. Still, probably because of skating, the lower back started to act up a little after an hour (as it did on the commutes, the past week). Generally, it's amazing how little rides you'd hardly bother with in the summer start to become somewhat challenging at this point during the winter. We were welcomed back cheerfully at the Vuursche Boer, where the two ladies at the table next to us were missing in action. I think I saw one or two new protest signs in Polder Bethune against the planned flooding of the area, and near Breukelen the ride turned into a light (as they say in Cudahy) bike wash. It's supposed to be worse tomorrow, so this was an excellent outing--quite possibly the only one this weekend.

Europe and U.S.: Eb and Flow

The title and theme of the new book by my friend and colleague Ronald Havenaar, published yesterday (in Dutch). It's a history and analysis of transatlantic relations since 1980, when Ronald Reagan's program (and European responses to it) began to push the Cold War allies a little further apart than had been the rule for most of the Cold War period. The thesis is about much more than policy--in fact, the emphasis is on differences in "mentality" (ways of viewing the world, of viewing history) that were (and are) at the base of differences between Americans and Europeans. This seems exactly where you want to start in trying to understand transatlantic relations. What I'll be curious to see is the exent to which the book also identifies historical and ideological commonalities between the two sides. (This in addition to common interests, whose existence seems obvious). These historical and ideological commonalities exist, of course, otherwise the Western alliance would not have come into being, nor would it have survived for almost sixty years. The question is, where's the emphasis? For it would be easy either to overemphasize transatlantic differences, or only to speak in general terms of "the West." The answer is political; it depends on what people on both sides of the Atlantic at any given time decide is the nature of the relationship. That's largely subjective, and dependent on public debates: who takes part, with what arguments. There is one thing everyone hopefully will consider: in today's interconnected, semi-chaotic world, it matters greatly where we come out on this. It is potentially decisive for a whole host of issues whether "Europe" and the U.S. manage to collaborate and find common approaches--not as the "West" against the rest, but as a major stabilizing force in the world. The fact that relations are difficult at times, or even that interests may diverge here and there, should not blind people on either side to this fact.
This Sunday, Havenaar will discuss his new book on VPRO tv. (You can read many of his brilliant book reviews of the past ten years--in Dutch--here).

My Near-Timeless Obama Op-Ed

Written before Christmas, printed here and there by papers of the GPD syndicate, and today also in the Nederlands Dagblad (in Dutch). It's about Obama's transition process, and what we can expect from his administration based on the people he has chosen and the way he has chosen them. One phrase I would not put in any more today: where I refer to the fact (still mostly a fact around December 20th) that so far the selection process for Obama's top aides had proceeded without any scandals. Back then, you could have objected: let's wait for the Holder confirmation hearings, but today we've also had the Richardson withdrawal and the Geithner tax issue. Other than that, I might add today that given what we've learned recently about Israel's desire last year to strike Iran's nuclear facilities, and in light of what we know about how soon Iran is likely to be able to build a nuclear weapon (soon), Obama may very early in his administration be faced with a crisis that will make JFK's Bay of Pigs dilemma look like child's play in comparison. But that's probably something for a different piece.

Directly from Venezuela

If you read Dutch, you can read two e-mail reports my Cold War student and semi-pro cyclist Lars has sent to his teammates in Holland. The reason he quit the race a few days ago was a crash on one of the many bad roads, which cost him some physical discomfort and a damaged bike. He tried to continue, but it was too hard.

Russia-Ukraine-Europe: What's the Problem?

In this morning's Volkskrant, Arnout Brouwers reminds us (in Dutch) of another factor: shady intermediaries who arrange shady and extremely lucrative arrangements to get Russia's gas through Ukraine to countries further West. Most prominent is RosUkrEnergo, jointly run by Ukraine and Gazprom. Exactly how this works, or why there even need to be such intermediaries only experts who have been following this story for a long time will be able to explain. However, it's not unreasonable to think that as part of this tug-of-war these intermediaries are also fighting for the best possible share in any transaction. Perhaps right now it explains why, even though supposedly supply resumed this morning, the gas isn't making it's way through Ukraine. But even though Putin may not be orchestrating every last move in this saga, there's no question that he controls Gazprom, and that Gazprom is both a major source of income and a key foreign policy tool for his bully state. I for one am happy that in this corner of Europe, there's frequent talk of very ambitious wind-turbine projects in the North Sea potentially capable of providing 20% of all energy needs for surrounding countries by 2050.

Over and Out in Venezuela

Lars, the student from my Cold War class last semester, did not finish the sixth stage of Venezuela's Vuelta al Tachira yesterday. The other Dutch riders had trouble too with a stage where just about everybody lost time. Could be illness, could be the weather, but it could also be because stage races at this level are just plain hard.

Anti-Americanism in the Guise of Anti-NATO-ism

I'm not sure if I saw the original article when it came out, last December in the Dutch evening daily NRC-Handelsblad, but this weekend the paper suddenly had three responses to J.H. Sampiemon's and Karel van Wolferen's plea for "Europe" to abolish NATO and instead promote some Eurasian security compact without the U.S. If you read their article (it has been translated into English), you may agree that instead of a constructive contribution to current security debates, it's really an expression of the authors' anti-Americanism. Fortunately, this weekend, two of the three responses were quite sensible (although the third was decidedly less so). But it really requires putting one's head very deep into the sand to believe that international stability can be promoted without U.S. leadership, and by "Europe," no less. Who exactly is going to mediate with any credibility between India and Pakistan; between Israel and the Arabs? Who will be able to contain Iran--or do the authors think that's not necessary? Who again is helping maintain stability in East Asia as a vital ally to (and moderator of) Japan, of South Korea? Who is going to continue to confront Al Qaeda and similar groups? Who again broke the bloody deadlock in Bosnia (I think that's in Europe) in the 1990s? Worst perhaps is the authors' complete rejection of any historical and ideological commonalities between "Europe" and the U.S. Sure, there are problems with Russia, but those are all the West's fault and have nothing to do with the current regime in Moscow? Certainly, autocrats and dictatorships don't welcome the advance of open societies in the world, especially if it takes place near their traditional sphere of influence. But that doesn't mean that this advance (if it can be maintained) would be a bad thing. Arguing for a break-up of NATO by "Europe" (or the EU) is outright strange also because in essence both organizations conform to the same vision of organizing society. All this is not to say that NATO doesn't have problems, but let's not lose sight of the wider context. The world is a dangerous enough place as it is--the last thing we need is for the West to disintegrate too. If "Europe" is so concerned about U.S. policy (and there will always be differences), it should engage Washington as a loyal partner. Partnership with Washington since 1945 has also helped the Europeans minimize their own quarrels. We all know those haven't disappeared yet.

First Climbs in Tachira

And the Dutch squad didn't do so well. One member in a group 16 some minutes behind the winner, Lars with the rest at more than half an hour. Eight more stages to go; sounds like a long ways, but maybe they're having a great time, racing in the sun.

Venzuela Update

Lars was the first in, 34 seconds behind a 83 guy lead pack today.

Russia Turns Off the Heat

Not in Holland, because here we have our own stash of natural gas in the ground. But the further East you go, the tougher it gets. Of course Ukraine shares in the responsibility for the current crisis; but of course Putin is playing politics with this. The signal to Ukraine is rather obvious: don't try to act too independently and especially, don't even think about trying to join NATO. It's less clear if Russia would also object to Ukraine's membership in the EU (but if I was Ukranian, I would not hold my breath). On the one hand, one could read the way the current cut-offs are playing out as a warning not just to Ukraine, but also for example to Bulgaria; a reminder to countries traditionally in Russia's sphere of influence that while they may now consider themselves part of the West, Russia still has power over them. If Gazprom was run purely as a business, Ukraine's debt would not have been allowed to rise as high as it has; it's no coincidence that this crisis has "erupted" in the middle of winter. In the middle of winter, Russia has the most leverage. On the other hand, the issue of Russia's view of the EU--its relationship with the organization, the organization's role in this crisis--is more difficult to figure out. At least for the moment Gazprom (Russia) has said it may resume gas deliveries through Ukraine if there are EU monitors present to verify that Ukraine doesn't siphon off any gas meant for customers further to the West. It could well be tactics: economic times are tough in Russia, and people are critical of the Putin regime's stewardship (if one can use that word); the Europeans are paying customers, and Moscow very much needs their business at the moment. So: Putin doesn't want any trouble with the (Western)Europeans at the moment, but this doesn't mean that he can't still send a message to Kiev and in the process try to separate Ukraine a little from its friends in the EU.

Cold War Cyclist

Lars got 27th in stage 2 of Venezuela's Vuelta al Tachira today. He's 24th overall. Doing the Final in the Cold War course early is paying off so far (on the bike, that is).

Cycling and Cold War--together, unfortunately

Today the Dutch paper de Volkskrant has a piece on 1970s East German cyclist Wolfgang Lötzsch, about whom someone made a film two years ago (maybe because of a 2004 book). It's a perfect supplement to what I wrote yesterday on the limits to Ostpolitik's ability to change the lives of East Germany's citizens. The best East German cyclist of his generation, Lötzsch was kept from racing (and eventually sent to jail) by the regime because of his refusal to join the communist party. All this happened during the heyday of Ostpolitik and détente. The improved relations between Western and communist governments had no impact whatsoever on his situation at any time until the collapse of the GDR. Bittersweet (emphasis on bitter) is the end of the Volkskrant article, recounting how after German unification Lötzsch moved to the West as a 37-year old, managed to get on a semi-pro team, and in that capacity once stood at the starting line of the Tour of the Mediterranean together with the likes of Indurain and Lemond.

Cold War and Cycling--definitely together

A student from my Cold War lecture course last fall is racing in the 44th Vuelta al Tachira in Venezuela, a UCI 2.2 stage race. It's warm in Venezuela, and the Dutch squad has had to prepare in cold and damp Holland, but in the first stage, Lars managed to finish in the first group in 33rd place.

My Own 400m Oval

Speedskating is cross-training for cyclists, so this post about tonight belongs. The past week or so I have been looking at the local oval, basically a section of wetland remnants right off our downtown. In this picture, the bisected green strip of land in the middle (the longer part on the right) is actually the center area of the oval; the green pieces of sod above it are no longer there. So today I'm riding home from giving an exam in Amsterdam Zuidoost and from a distance in the fading daylight I see an unusual set of lights near town: they opened the skating oval! Since last Tuesday I've skated three times at Ankeveen, and every time it was great. But I've been looking at the very fine layer of ice on this "polder," and tonight I was able to get on it. Not only that, when I got there just before six, everybody had gone to dinner. O.K., one kid put his skates on with me, but for the half hour after that, we were the only ones there, and he wasn't really doing laps. So I had this whole oval to myself--my very first time skating here. A 400m oval (but much wider), in nature, with lights, real (and really good) ice, and for the better part of an hour it was just me doing laps. Knowing the ice was going to be good, I had grabbed my clap skates. The past week I used my old fixies--they're fine, less vulnerable to falling (which I haven't done yet), and easier to climb over earthen dams with, but they're not fast. Not that I'm a fast skater, but the difference was noticable nonetheless. It was the best hour of skating I've done in a long time, and given my outings of the past week, that's saying something.

Cuba's Anniversary, the U.S., and Ostpolitik's Lessons

Roger Cohen had a good column yesterday about how some in the West still harbor illusions about the Castro brothers and their revolution. The Economist this week has a useful overview of the past fifty years, pointing out that George W. Bush will be the tenth U.S. president to leave office with a Castro still in power on the island. And the BBC World Service has been running a series on Cuba, fifty years after the fall of Batista. Just about everybody (well, not Sean Penn) believes that the Cuban government's economic policies have served the Cuban population poorly, to say nothing of the political repression. And most folks think the Castro regime would not have survived this long if the U.S. had been less rigid in its approach, if it had explored ways to relax or even lift the economic embargo. The embargo, the argument goes, has helped the regime in Havana justify its repressive policies and it has also created some level of solidarity between the population and the regime. Most important, by pointing at the U.S. embargo, the Castros have been able to deflect attention from their own disastrous policies. So the obvious conclusion would be for the U.S., the new Obama administration, to lift the embargo and thereby expose the rottenness of the communist regime on Cuba for all to see. One model for this could be West Germany's Ostpolitik vis-a-vis Eastern Europe, the Soviet Union, but especially the German Democratic Republic during the 1970s and 1980s. The objective of this policy was to establish ties with East Germany at all levels in order to lessen the impact of the division of Germany, and ultimately to make it meaningless in practice. Through economic, cultural, and personal contacts, the idea was, the communist dictatorship's hold on the country would be undermined. The debate on the effectiveness of the policy is ongoing. On the one hand, you could argue that Ostpolitik laid the groundwork for the protests and the revolutionary changes of 1989 and 1990. The East German population certainly did get more opportunities after 1970 to learn how well people in the West had it compared to their own situation. On the other hand, you could also argue that "1989" was brought about by the policies of Mikhail Gorbachev, and that until 1989 the East German regime had become very skilled at accepting Western financial and economic aid while maintaining a tight grip on power. In this reading Ostpolitik actually helped keep communism in power in East Germany. Western politicians failed to challenge the political control of the regime (mostly treating them like any other legitimate government), and all the Western money and goods flowing East helped the regime keep its population (relatively) content. In other words, it's conceivable that lifting the U.S. embargo against Cuba will do relatively little to change the political situation on the island. At the same time, even if the current regime were able to survive a new U.S. "Southern policy," it is also hard to imagine how there would not be an evolution which would make Cuba a very different place in a generation from what it is today. In any case, it would be nice (it's not a given) if whatever change Cuba will experience is as peaceful as East Germany's transformation in 1989-1990.

Eventful First Ride of the Year

The temperature was above freezing today, and around noon the sun came out, so it seemed a perfect opportunity to start working on a higher annual total than the 5572 miles I logged in 2008. Just did a quick 21 mile Abcoude loop, also to inspect the ice conditions in those parts. I can report that there are still large open areas in the Vecht river; that in spite of its having been frozen since last weekend the Vreeland ice rink is still closed, but that the one in Baambrugge is open; that there seem to have been people both on and through the ice in the Angstel river between Loenersloot and Abcoude; that there have been skaters on the Gein river north of "de Vink," but that the last half mile to the Gaasp is completely open; and that the Vecht between Weesp and Nederhorst den Berg has an absolutely beautiful layer of ice on it. We need a week of very cold nights and moderately cold days to be able to skate in all these places, but looking at the forecast I don't think we're going to get it. On the Amsterdam Rijnkanaal approaching the bridge near Kerklaan: a big ship with shipping containers stacked two high headed north for Amsterdam. After my loop through Kerklaan and up the bridge, it had just gone underneath. Looking over at the canal after Loenersloot, it had pulled even with me again, and I wondered if I'd be able to see it when I crossed the canal back, a couple of miles north, near Weesp. The boat had the nearly straight line to this next bridge, but I, in spite of my winding route along the little rivers, presumably had the speed. At first I thought no, but when I looked over at the canal riding alongside the Gein river after Abcoude: there it was again. I did beat it to the Weesp bridge, but that boat was making good time!

No Credible Defense Against a Soviet Attack--2

I've skimmed the British documents, and it's interesting to see how upset Prime-Minister Callahan was about the "thin" British home island defenses against a Soviet attack. The problem is (and the internal discussion acknowledges part of this) that the imagined Soviet attack was a worst-case scenario, and that due to NATO's article 5 Britain would never have had to defend itself alone. Callahan may have overreacted. Interesting is also that there's no sustained analysis in these papers of how a Soviet attack might proceed (the extent to which sometimes impressive Soviet capabilities on paper would be effective in practice), and what role the U.K. would play in a Soviet plan of attack on the West. Of course, if you're in a position of responsibility, you'd better think of the worst-case scenario--or, in our post-9/11 era, try to imagine the unimaginable. Still, looking back knowing where the Soviet Union was headed (remember old Brezhnev and his colleagues Andropov and Chernenko, Tichonov, Ustinov?), the seriousness with which British leaders apparently considered the possibility of an overwhelming Soviet attack strikes as a bit awkward. After all, the Warsaw Pact, just like NATO, had lots of contingency plans, but neither side seems to have thought seriously about initiating a war of conquest against the other side. Everything becomes a lot less awkward, however, if you consider the most likely way a big war could have started during the Cold War, namely by accident. We came pretty close a few times, for example in 1962 (Cuban Missile Crisis) and maybe 1983.