Russia Turns Off the Heat

Not in Holland, because here we have our own stash of natural gas in the ground. But the further East you go, the tougher it gets. Of course Ukraine shares in the responsibility for the current crisis; but of course Putin is playing politics with this. The signal to Ukraine is rather obvious: don't try to act too independently and especially, don't even think about trying to join NATO. It's less clear if Russia would also object to Ukraine's membership in the EU (but if I was Ukranian, I would not hold my breath). On the one hand, one could read the way the current cut-offs are playing out as a warning not just to Ukraine, but also for example to Bulgaria; a reminder to countries traditionally in Russia's sphere of influence that while they may now consider themselves part of the West, Russia still has power over them. If Gazprom was run purely as a business, Ukraine's debt would not have been allowed to rise as high as it has; it's no coincidence that this crisis has "erupted" in the middle of winter. In the middle of winter, Russia has the most leverage. On the other hand, the issue of Russia's view of the EU--its relationship with the organization, the organization's role in this crisis--is more difficult to figure out. At least for the moment Gazprom (Russia) has said it may resume gas deliveries through Ukraine if there are EU monitors present to verify that Ukraine doesn't siphon off any gas meant for customers further to the West. It could well be tactics: economic times are tough in Russia, and people are critical of the Putin regime's stewardship (if one can use that word); the Europeans are paying customers, and Moscow very much needs their business at the moment. So: Putin doesn't want any trouble with the (Western)Europeans at the moment, but this doesn't mean that he can't still send a message to Kiev and in the process try to separate Ukraine a little from its friends in the EU.