June 14, 2026

Sunday. Left a little after nine. Blacksmith. Cool, overcast, moderate winds out of the northwest. Long sleeve jersey not an exaggeration. Berenkuil to De Bilt, around Zeist toward Woudenberg. Fairly quiet everywhere. Evidence of a recent shower before Woudenberg. Griftdijk and beyond was dry again. Past the donkeys to the Haarweg, then across the partially closed freeway. Amerongse berg fairly quiet also. Right at Leersum toward Ginkelduin. A large pack of motorcyles, not the only one today. Hoogstraat to Ruiterberg. People, but not too many, maybe late sleepers due to late-night soccer. Back up the hill toward the Pyramid, then down toward Zeist, and around it to De Bilt and the city. Last bit a headwind, but nothing dramatic. Yesterday's papers at Møs. The American general who is NATO's SACEUR has read the intelligence and does not believe Russia is seeking conflict with Europe. Nordic countries see it differently. Perhaps recent intelligence shows no preparations for an attack, the evidence and experience from the past years--including the Russian president's repeated statements--demonstrate that Moscow considers itself in conflict with Europe already. How could it not? Just the other day, the British navy intercepted a oil tanker from Russia's shadow fleet; the French did so just a couple of weeks ago. In addition, the EU is proceeding with the start of membership talks for Ukraine and Moldova. These countries turning toward Europe was Russia's prime reason to attack in 2014. There is no sign, quite the opposite, that the Russian president has abandoned his maximalist objectives in the war, including pushing back NATO from where it is now. Obviously, his armies are in no position to mount any kind of sustained offensive against a NATO country. Nordic officials believe this could change if and when the war in Ukraine comes to an end. Whether, as they say, Russia will then have a large, well-trained military capable of taking on NATO is a big question, given how poorly Russia's military is performing against Ukraine and given how hard it is for Moscow to find recruits able and willing to fight. All of which doesn't mean that Europe should not consider itself in conflict with Russia and that it should not prepare for all kinds of Russian actions designed to divide it. Perhaps the Americans will still help if something goes wrong, but it would be much better if that were a bonus, instead of critical. More important in such a case would be to have integrated Ukraine far enough so as to be able to use its hard-earned experience, and its military capabilities, to beat back any Russian initiative. If integration proceeds quickly enough, and assuming the war ends in a way that allows for genuine Ukrainian independence and security, perhaps that Europe's deterrence will be enhanced to such an extent that, indeed, there will be no Russian fantasizing over an offensive.