June 22, 2026

 Monday. Nederhorst den Berg. Left a little before 11:30 after a lake swim (and an old acquaintance). Breezy out of the northeast; warm, not hot. Sunny, with some light, disorganized white cloud patterns. The lake had been mostly empty, as was the beach; the water clean, but not as clear as it can be. The old doctor's residence and practice is being renovated and, it appears, expanded a little. Spiegelweg and Vecht to Loodijk and the east side of the river. Muiden still quiet, then along the dike where there used to be hardly anything, but not anymore. It's another consequence of the expanding city: the cycling infrastructure needs to keep pace, every time at the expense of a little more green space. IJburg was spectacular, with white, pink, red, green, yellow, and purple wildflowers and weeds on both sides of the asphalt. Coffee and the news at Javaplein. A story on how Ukrainian attacks make it less and less attractive for Russians to vacation in Crimea, but also a grim report on those who remain in the Donbas city of Kramatorsk, in the face of Russian attacks. Elsewhere, a story on the Russian economy, not close to collapse. China is a major partner, and enough funds come in from the sale of oil, gas, and other commodities to keep things going.  The Russian economy has become a war economy, which may make it harder to end the war, since peace would likely force major and difficult changes, where things currently have taken on a kind of normalcy. It could actually be worse, according to some in the Baltics, because instead of reforming itself, the Russian war economy might just go looking for another conflict, for example against NATO in the Baltics. Hard to imagine, perhaps, but it's important to try to think, and think through, the unthinkable in these matters. For the war to end, we still need some kind of major shift in the Russian position. From their strategy it is clear that the Ukrainians understand that, aside from trying to stay one or two steps ahead of the Russians on the battlefield, hitting key sites of Russia's war economy is the best way to undermine the Kremlin's ability, not only to wage the war, but also to run the country. Western sanctions haven't brought about an economic emergency in Russia, and they probably can't. The most likely, though not necessarily promising, way to change Moscow's calculus is for Ukraine to keep hitting Russia's industrial sites (while improving its defenses against Russia's terror attacks). Kyiv's European friends should focus their efforts there, not on premature diplomatic initiatives toward the Kremlin. From Javaplein to the Bushuis, and from there back to IJburg and Muiden. Then toward Hakkelaarsbrug, the Keverdijk, and the old village. There, in spite of ongoing new construction, not too much ever seems to change.