June 26, 2026

Friday. Nederhorst den Berg. Nikor. Left twenty to eleven, after a lake swim. A very warm day, so people, and their dogs, already gathering at the beach. The lake still fairly quiet, although one stinking pleasure boat passed by. Light winds out of the southeast, which made a difference on the way back. The old commute, alongside the Vecht to Muiden. The Spiegelplas lock let just one pleasure boat onto the river; in Muiden, the barriers were up, the bridge passable. In between, and all the way to the city it was unusually quiet out. Javaplein with the paper. A preview of the upcoming NATO summit in Turkey and how there may be opportunities to show some unity, the U.S. included, and thereby maintain some credibility for the alliance. "Some" would be the key term here, because the current administration in Washington has shown time and again it's unserious about these matters, and thus, in the final analysis, unreliable. At the same time, there are things Washington still agrees to do with and in Europe. Deterrence relies not just on weapons, military ability, political resilience, and the like, but also on just enough uncertainty about one's willingness to follow through on warnings about the importance of certain red lines. Perhaps there's still enough uncertainty about what Washington will do in the face of a provocation or worse. Perhaps. Unfortunately, there may not be enough doubt (in Moscow) about European willingness and ability to confront aggression. Fortunately, Ukraine in the meantime is hitting Russia, especially Crimea so hard that on the peninsula a state of emergency has been declared. There will be a Russian response, of course, so calling it good news isn't quite right. But this current Ukrainian operation seems the most promising way to bring about some change in the Russian position.