No Credible Defense Against a Soviet Attack?

This was the conclusion of a British government report in the late 1970s, as reported on by the BBC today. The report seems to have been based primarily on a comparison of numbers (of bombers, missiles, air defense systems) on both sides, not, according to the BBC report, on actual capabilities or intentions. You can download the file from Britain's National Archives here, apparently for free. I'm busy doing that right now, but I won't be able to get to it right away, because there's real ice, lake ice, in Holland right now, and I have made plans to go check it out this afternoon. It looks like there will be lake and canal skating until at least New Year's Day. These opportunities don't come along so often any more, and my computer time is therefore going to be limited this week. (Just see that I got an error message from the National Archives--probably because of heavy traffic--hah! I'm off the hook for a probing analysis for now!).

Obama's Team, Obama's Policy?

This was the question for an op-ed in the papers of the GPD, last week: what, if anything do Obama's nominations for top positions in his administration tell us about his policies? The paper for our own region, the Gooi- en Eemlander, printed my piece yesterday, as I just saw at my brother's. They don't have it on their website, however, and I haven't seen in anywhere else yet either, so I can't link to it. The gist: Obama and his team will be interested in certain reforms, but they'll be limited in what they will be able to undertake by the current financial and economic crises, by the country's two or three wars (depending on whether you count the fight against Al Qaeda and similar groups as its own war, separate from those in Iraq and Afghanistan), and by Obama's determination (see the Rick Warren selection, among other things) really to be the president of all Americans--to be a real uniter, not a divider. The other thing we can see from the selection process so far is that the Obama administration should be extremely serious, deliberate, and professional. I forgot to include speculation that this might also mean that things will be a bit dull at times in Obama's Washington. But dull is not necessarily bad in government.

Inspection and Improvisation on the Coffee Ride

Friday it went below freezing, and the forecast is for below-freezing temperatures all week, next week. During the day it should stay cold also. So the talk in Holland (and other parts of the Netherlands) is all about skating--lake and canal skating, that is. For the time being, however, the East winds have brought us sunny skies and dry roads. A few degrees below freezing is nothing for a cyclist with eight years of Milwaukee under his belt (thankfully, it's still bearable for the Utrecht delegation also), and so I rode into a large, bright red sun this morning to get my Saturday meet-in-the-middle fix, but also to see how the ice was growing along the route. The ride was fine, and so, on the way home, were the legs; however, we still have quite a ways to go with the ice. Many small waters were still partly open, and everywhere the ice looked awfully precarious, maybe not even one centimeter. In several places it was strong enough to support a duck (or koet, as the case may be), but I don't see us out on real ice before Wednesday. I was first to enter De Vuursche Boer this morning and was sad to hear that the coffee machine (at least the part that makes the foamy milk) was still broken (it broke when Joan and I were there yesterday for a pancake, fortunately after our first "koffie verkeerd"). Putting a spoonful of whipped cream from my apple pie into my regular coffee saved the day. There was a new sign in the Polder Bethune, where inhabitants are trying to prevent the establishment of a wetland on what for many years has been farmland. It compared a polder without farmers to a red light district without prostitutes--not sure how many government minds that is going to change. Along the Vecht river there was a moderate headwind most of the way, but the cool conditions didn't keep several folks of my parents' generation from riding around without anything on their heads. I even suspect one grey-haired dude of looking funny at my balaclava.

It's 15.9 Miles

My commute between Nederhorst den Berg and the P.C. Hoofthuis at the Spuistraat and Raadhuisstraat in Amsterdam. Olaf and I did the ride this morning on quiet (though not deserted) roads. I pulled up all the way to the gate of my building, to see if the computer would move to 16.0, but it didn't. I'd still like to give myself 16 miles each way. Here's how: at the end of a ride I always round down (for example, at the end of last Saturday's coffee ride, I had 37.9 miles, but I have written down 37 for that day). So in the course of a year, I accumulate lots of change, so to speak, and I'd like to apply that to my daily commuting deficit of .2 miles. From now on, I'll add a little distance to each commute, so that this will no longer be necessary (on the way home, I'll do the Hinderdam--the road curving along the river to the left here, instead of the straight shot into town alongside the Spiegelweg--the road on the right). I hope this will be acceptable. To prove that Amsterdam is a real city, we found two cafes open near my building this Christmas morning at ten am, so we were able to turn this little jaunt into a coffee ride also.

Tough Commuter

That would not be me, these days. My last ride to Amsterdam was last Friday. I'm planning to do the ride tomorrow, on the winter Klein with computer, so that I'll finally know for sure how far it is (important for when I calculate my annual mileage on New Year's Eve). The tough commuter was at our open house, last weekend. She's Sabina, a former neighbor from the late 1970s and 1980s. From the old days I remember her always riding her bike to work in Amsterdam. She still does. We talked about the Wednesday a couple of weeks ago (the day of my crashes), and of course she had been out that day too. She had crash stories too, and she talked about them, and the resulting injuries, the way hard-core riders do: stuff that happens from time to time in circumstances that are challenging, even a little exciting, but certainly nothing to discourage one from riding. These days she rides an old, crappy bike to work, because there's no safe way to store a good bike. There's no shower at her current work site either, so she has devised ways to minimize the sweating on the way in (just wear one thin layer underneath your jacket so that you are just warm enough). And she has studied the weather patterns around here, discovering that there's often a dividing line near Weesp and the Amsterdam-Rijnkanaal (something I was wondering about this past fall), and also that in recent years rain showers have become more frequent in this part of the Netherlands. Not that this has kept her off the bike. She really always rides, also when she goes speedskating Monday mornings. Then, she rides the 11 miles to the Amsterdam oval, also if this time of year it means riding in the dark (another thing I haven't done yet). And she talks about all this in a very matter-of-fact way. No wonder, perhaps, that she's also the mother of a young woman who a couple of years ago was a national-level speedskater. No wonder, either, that she looks incredibly fit. You can find consistent bike commuters like her over here, but they are still pretty rare. Another model to emulate.

A New Cold War?

A reader writes:

I have to ask, only half jokingly, if the Cold War historians are waiting for a pivotal event to declare Cold War II retroactively, like the financial gurus have declared Recession 2008. It seems to me there are quite a few elements of a perfect storm on the Russian front! My non-nuanced predictions, launched from my armchair vantage point:
Putin emboldened by the new term limits, will become President after Medvedev resigns in the near future.
Russia will indeed take advantage of new legislation to start an incremental tightening of foreign access to citizens. (will I lose my new Russian Facebook friends?)
The EU, without the OSCE to hide behind, will waffle and stall on a MAP for Georgia, keeping NATO membership in limbo.
The incoming US administration will have to do some fast stepping when it comes to the bilateral relations the Bush administration forged with Saakashvili's administration; with the EU waffling, our bilateral relationship will start to look a unilateral one if we step up our presence in Russia's "sphere of influence".
Russia will continue to fast-track citizenship in Abkhazia and S. Ossetia, while the quality of life in those regions continues to decline due to rampant crime and corruption. then leverage an eventual take-over with a claim of protecting the majority of Russian citizens living in those regions.

For what it's worth...

I, of course, have all the answers. "A" new cold war between Russia and the West is quite possible. One could even say that it's already a fact, at least at a low level of intensity. However, "the" Cold War was about the shape of the post-World War II world, about what would take the place of Nazism/Fascism, Japanese militarism, and (European) colonialism. The U.S. and the Soviet Union represented what turned out to be mutually exclusive visions for the future (indeed, of where history was headed), and each felt it could leave the other with no new gains, least of all perhaps in the de-colonizing "third world." Each also felt that long-term, it ought to work to undermine the influence of the other. It seems that today, Russia's ambitions are more limited. Partly because of that, the West isn't as united as in the 1940s and '50s, or as anxious about where for example developing countries will go in their politics. One could argue that on the issue of so-called "failed" and "outlaw" states, Russia and the West still have more in common than things that divide them. Both face potential terrorist violence, for example, and neither side wants to see nuclear capabilities fall into the hands of terrorists or unstable regimes. Russia's traditional sphere of influence seems to be the major bone of contention, in part because of the way the West has extended its influence there since 1990. That's an issue that is easier (not: easy) to manage than a deeply ideological conflict about the future of the world. Unfortunately, it will probably mean no tight, formal ties between the West (certainly not NATO) and Georgia or Ukraine; and it could also mean (because of the way Putin and his posse continue to tighten their hold on the place) losing a few Russian Facebook friends.

Dirty Dozen Results are In

Check it out at Danny Chew's website, with photos and links to YouTube videos and all. I haven't been everywhere (man), but I'll still go out on a limb and say there's nothing like it in the world.

The Coffee Ride and the Importance of Routines

Immediately following, we had an open house for old friends, and given that I'd been gone all morning, I was certainly required to help out--and quick. I should (and do) consider myself privileged to have been allowed to ride at all. It was a good morning for a ride. I rained overnight, but behind the showers milder air moved in, and when I stepped outside this morning, the gloves and hat could stay in my pockets. I can't remember the last time I rode without gloves; it could easily have been back in October. The wind was out of the West, maybe Northwest, so I had it easy, which was good, because my legs aren't the same since I've been to the speedskating oval a few times. "Ice legs," and they don't move as smoothly. What's there to report? The guy with the dog, near the Hilversum airfield wasn't there! What's the world coming to when people start breaking their routines? What was there, as every week (for sure), was the "stormbaan" (obstacle course--don't know the exact translation) at the adjacent Marine complex. Around 1980 I spent a couple of days there, being checked out to see whether for my military service I could join the elite outfit. Because of mild near-sightedness I got rejected (and instead ended up contributing to the Western victory in the Cold War driving a gasoline truck built in about the same year I was born). I didn't have to do the "stormbaan" at that time, but did get to do it during basic training. It's not an easy thing to do, especially not when carrying all your gear, but it doesn't bring up any trauma either, riding by the course every week--on the contrary. Few cyclists at the "Boer." The two elderly ladies who always come in for coffee did show up (albeit too late, so that they had to be at a different table from their usual one, right next to ours; it was upsetting, but I could handle the change). On the way back, outside of Maartensdijk: two approaching, grey haired cyclists. As we got closer, one got behind the other to let us pass. When we did and I looked over, I saw it was my dad's cousin, Gert, and his wife Roelie, who have lived in nearby Achttienhoven/Westbroek for a very long time and must be in their early eighties now. The last time I had seen them was at my dad's funeral, four years ago. Gert fainted there, but look at him now. There was some wind, but there they were, at least a couple of miles from home, perhaps on their way to visit someone, or maybe just to go to the store. They're former farmers, together have raised a family of ten or so, and they (obviously!) have kept to their routines. I'm going to follow their example.

First Time Ever: Freek Disappoints

The other night I saw the latest show of Dutch comedian and theater star, Freek de Jonge. I've been a fan since the 1970s, when he made waves as a leading member of Neerlands Hoop. They came up during the late 1960s, were of the left (the thinking left), which meant critical of the United States and its war in Vietnam, among many other things. (Did I mention they were also a killer rock band? Well, they were). During the 1970s, one could say in hindsight, they became prominent representatives of a push-back from below against the Cold War order, especially its disregard for human rights (whether these were violated in communist countries or under right-wing dictatorships). In 1978 they launched a campaign for a Dutch boycott of the soccer world cup in Argentina, where a right-wing military dictatorship was busy jailing and killing its political opponents. Today, even a member of the victorious Argentine squad argues that the tournament should not have been held, and I wish I had been more sympathetic to Freek's campaign. (Instead, as a seventeen-year old, I was rooting very hard for the Dutch team, and I remember being heartbroken when they lost the final match against Argentina, certainly not staying for the party Jurriaan van Wessem had organized at his house). Not too long after that, Freek struck out on his own, putting together a long series of brilliant one-person shows. As far as I've been able to track his career the past 20 years (I own a lot of it on cd), he has continued to push himself and his audience in programs that are invariably original (though usually addressing similar themes) and searching, not to mention extremely funny. Just last spring I came away very impressed from De Laatste Lach: after all these years, and still dealing with his familiar themes (let's call it: the meaning of life) he continues to make it interesting. But not this week with De Limiet. Freek himself said it best in the current VPRO gids: he can do a show like this on auto-pilot. Unfortunately, it showed. He seems to have written the thing on auto-pilot, and even a performer of his ability could not really take this material (just sports--a mistake, in hindsight) beyond its very obvious limits. After the break there was a musical part unrelated to the first half, which gave the whole evening a slapped-together kind-of feel. It wasn't a disaster, it just wasn't up to Freek's own high standards. If you're in Holland, you can see for yourself: tonight, Friday, they'll show De Limiet on tv; next Friday, it will be De Laatste Lach.

Buy a Newspaper--again

A blogger at The Economist also comments (as do many others, these days). I think the central weakness in this otherwise useful post is this:

I'm content to let many of the nation's newspapers go belly up, but I'm nervous about a world where many cities are entirely without a few seasoned reporters, who make it their business to ask hard questions and keep an eye on those in need of accountability.

A few reporters--that's not going to do it; just like investigative reporting alone is not what makes a good news outlet.

In the meantime, the Detroit Free Press has announced its changes: they will only deliver the paper (which they'll continue to put out every day) to subscribers three days a week. The rest of the week, subscribers can access the entire paper on-line. Because leafing through a newspaper in front of a computer is so much fun, I'm sure that's going to boost the Free Press' readership quickly (I'm being sarcastic here). Of course, the paper had to do something, and this may well be the least painful way to address dropping revenues, especially from ads. For advertisements to go back up again, people will have to want to get the actual paper because, as Felix Salmon at Portfolio.com argues,

Newspapers are, first and last, devices for delivering ads to readers. It's the ads which account for all the profits, not the cash coming from subscribers or people who buy their paper at the newsstand.

Salmon then proceeds to argue that "news itself is free," always has been. This is fine as far as it goes, but the cut-backs at many papers suggest that it doesn't go very far. I'm not an economist by a long shot, but don't ads also pay for newsrooms, reporters, correspondents, distribution networks? The fact remains that papers (and other news outlets) need real income to sustain real, professional news gathering operations. Real income may come from ads more than anything else, but without readers willing to get the actual paper, the ads aren't going to be there either. They will go somewhere else, for example to websites. But I don't think anybody is arguing that news organizations can maintain their newsroom strength on the basis of internet advertising alone? If they could, then most of this discussion would be about a minority of old-fashioned people such as myself not wanting to spend even more time in front of the computer. But I don't think that's the case. Look at the quality of information provided for free on the internet. If it's any good, it's usually backed by a professionals , often a traditional news organization. Because there are many other ways to get "information" on-line, it's doubtful enough people are going to be willing to pay for access to the really solid sites. Look also at user tolerance for ads: it's much easier to put up with ads (i.e. consider their message) in a paper than on a website, especially if the ad rolls out over the story you're about to read. So print media should remain important venues for all kinds of advertisers also. The bottom line for me remains that as citizens we have choices, and that, on balance, a responsible choice is to spend a little money on a regular basis buying the product from a credible news organization. The easiest, most effective way to do this remains buying a newspaper. It's not expensive, it's good for your brain, and it's essential to democracy.

• 
  

Buy a Newspaper

Every day, as a rule, would you, please? Either that, or subscribe. Papers everywhere are having difficulties holding on to readers, and in Holland there are calls for government support for newspapers to ensure a diverse and vibrant array of news media. Better, of course, would be if responsible citizens were to make that unnecessary. You know, all those folks who believe that a democratic society with informed citizens would be a pretty good idea? The internet is great, but you can't have a genuinely informed citizenry without lots of professional journalists looking into things, being experts at things, full time. Papers can put material on line, but if we would all rely on the free stuff there, they could not maintain their staffs, their networks of correspondents. Same with relying on tv news. And don't get me started on those free rags you can find at all Dutch train stations these days ("readers" of those things: please don't think you're reading "the paper" every day; instead, how about feeling offended by the crap these things have to offer?). It's a pretty damn good value also, everything you get from a real paper in return for your buck or Euro-twentyfive or less. Can most people get by most days without one? Sure. However, for civil society really to work, you need a lot of people doing the right thing--this is one of those right things. If you want to see the writing on the wall, look at what's about to happen with the Detroit Free Press, "on guard for 177 years" and the Detroit News: Detroit's major dailies will no longer deliver a regular paper every day--it's just one example.

Cold? Milwaukee is Cold!

As I got on the bike this morning, a fading moon hung over one horizon while a big orange sun was climbing out from behind the other. It was a few degrees below freezing--with iced-over ditches and small canals--but most regular, transportation-type cyclists of all genders and ages rode around without anything on their heads, and sometimes also without gloves. Headwind the whole way to Lage Vuursche, and on several stretches the low bright sun was right in my face. In short, an absolutely beautiful morning (and nothing like the snow-bound, single digits Milwaukee survival tours). In Loosdrecht I passed several Eendracht guys on the way to their weekly off-road date, and on the pretty road by the Hilversum airfield the guy I always see there with his dog nodded for the first time. The roads and bikepaths were dry almost everywhere, but you still had to look out for little patches of frost, or for frozen puddles. At the Vuursche Boer most of the regulars were there, also among the waitstaff. The Utrecht delegation had chosen the off-road option, which meant that I did more of the second leg on my own. Tailwind almost the whole way, which in Westbroek helped me stay ahead of a tractor pulling a big flat thing. I passed him in the middle of town to be done with the noise and the smell, but then he started picking up more speed. On the crosswind section before Tienhoven I actually had to put my head down a little and work to maintain the required speed of 23 m/h to fight him off. That it doesn't have to get too much colder for lake and canal skating to become feasible I realized along a canal in the Polder Bethune: the canal was only partly frozen, but on one section the ice was strong enough to support a swan. What can I say about the tailwind section home along the Vecht river? The same as always: these coffee rides are really something.

Two Girls on a Moped

A slow one. I saw them stopped early tonight near the Schellingwouderbrug, where you can exit a little park onto the dike between the Amsterdam Rijnkanaal and the Nieuwe Diep. As they got going (no helmets, lots of trendy wool stuff around their necks and heads) I passed them thinking that if they managed to pick up a little speed, I could get a nice draft off them. They did catch up to me, and as they did they asked ("Sir"--I even look old now with a helmet and a balaclava) if I knew where "Steigereiland" was. I asked if it was in the new area, IJburg, that's still being built beyond the canal in the IJmeer, and they said yes. So I pointed them to the bicycle bridge across the canal 500 meters or so up the road. They could get to IJburg there. They thanked me and accelerated past, but slowly enough for me to get that draft. We probably weren't even doing 25, but I still enjoyed my first moped-paced stretch on the commuter, with its fenders, mudflap, 28 wide tires, rack, and what have you.

Vietnam War Further Into History

This happened yesterday, in Louisiana, where in a traditionally Democratic district (the 2nd) voters sent the first Vietnamese-American to Congress. Anh "Joseph"Cao fled Saigon in 1975 as a young child on a transport plane while his father, an officer in the South Vietnamese army, stayed behind, eventually in a prison camp for 16 years. He ran as a Republican, and he benefited from several special circumstances surrounding this election (delayed because of Hurricane Gustav), in particular the indictment of the long-serving incumbent William J. Jefferson, but also the low turnout. Still, when you read his life story, you can see why people trust him, and it's hard not to hear that phrase in the background, at once a cliche and very fitting, especially in 2008: only in America ...

Russia: Bad News Bear

I finally finished last week's special report in The Economist on Russia. It tries to end on a hopeful note: "Historically, Russia has often demonstrated an ability to take unexpected turns, whether for good or ill. ... The danger lies in its unpredictability. Yet that may also be a reason for hope." The problem is that the series of thorough articles on issues such as the growing power of the state in the economy; corruption; the not-so-independent judiciary (guess who has undue influence?); depressing demographic trends; xenophobia; and the Caucasus--the entire bunch, really, offers very little to base one's hopes on for a more benign Russian future. The depressing prospects domestically and in foreign policy are captured at the end of the article on demographics, immigration, and xenophobia: "Dmitry Rogozin, a nationalist politician who built his campaign for parliament in 2003 on anti-immigrant rhetoric, is now Russia's ambassador to NATO. On his office wall hangs a portrait of Stalin." Angry, frustrated places, just like angry, frustrated people, do not tend to be nice to themselves or others. What makes this especially complicated for the "West" (that is to say: "Europe" and North America) is that according to the same report "Russia's nationalism defines itself in relation to America and the West ..." It matters a great deal, therefore, how the West treats Russia, and the Economist also reports that "many Russian liberals argue that Western policy towards Russia has helped to make the country more nationalistic." [emphasis mine]: U.S. abrogation of the ABM Treaty; missile defense in Central Europe; NATO expansion; recognition of Kosovo. Once conclusion could be that the West should avoid anything that will make Russia mad. However, going that route (with all the cost it will entail for Western interests elsewhere) does not guarantee by a long shot a more benign Russian policy. What does the experience of the Cold War teach us here? The way a country is run--by whom and in the name of what--matters a great deal; real change will have to come, therefore, from within; outsiders can do some limited things to help (vis-a-vis the population, but sometimes also by working with the regime), but their actions will always have to be based on a realistic assessment of how, in this case, Russia is run--by whom and in the name of what.

Treacherous Ride, Update 2

Cold War and Cycling: new developments in my issue with the city of Amsterdam over last Wednesday's iced-over bridges that cost me two bike crashes--the second also resulting in one or two bruised ribs. I just hear that Het Parool printed my letter in yesterday's paper. I wasn't in Amsterdam yesterday, and the only day the paper makes it to our village is Saturday. But the person who saw it will mail the paper. I can't find any place on the paper's site for letters-to-the-editor, so I can't link to it either. Given that the city claims that crews had been out all night, it's possible that I'm off in my indictment. I've talked to other people who think it possible that when roads are icing over, salt put down, say, in the middle of the night, could be gone by early morning. I still think that's hard to believe in the circumstances last week: snow and sleet coming down in the evening and beginning to stick, followed by below-freezing temperatures. How could salt wash away in these conditions? In any case, while running is very painful at the moment, riding is possible. It's the holidays (St. Nicholas) and we could not fit in a coffee ride this morning, but in the afternoon I did my summer loop to Hilversum to get a Herald Tribune. It's a little ride for the summer, when the Sunday rides are long and manly, "meet-the-middle" coffee rides out of season, but you still need a little something on Saturday. Easy riding, without pulling on the handlebars really isn't so bad. I even took my foot out of the pedal at one point to deal with a chasing dog (that's when he finally backed off, before I could practice the survival skill [that would be kicking the animal before it can jump up and bite you] learned during my days in Southeastern Ohio). With a partly couldy sky with lots of light and dark cloud action, and with the season's low sun, there were some spectacular vistas along the way (Horstermeer, 's-Graveland, Spanderswoud, past my deceased high school Het Nieuwe Lyceum, past the old VARA building, and back by way of Loosdrecht, Loenen, and Vreeland for a grand total of 22 miles).

Treacherous Ride, Update

Piet is o.k.; when I reached him last night he said that if he had known how bad it was, he would not have taken the bike yesterday. Last night I kept reiterating my scorn for the city salt crew's late appearance until my wife finally told me to do something about it. Call the city, write the newspaper, but don't just complain about it at home. Nothing is going to change that way. So at 11 last night I e-mailed a letter-to-the-editor to the Amsterdam paper Het Parool about the whole affair, suggesting that they follow Milwaukee's example and anticipate this stuff. (In an article in today's paper, city officials claim crews had been out all night but that there was just no way to keep up). Injury update: hip and elbow are hardly worth mentioning, but the rib cage will continue to be a problem for a while, I'm afraid. Today I was running late for my train (indeed, I took a riding day off) and I tried to jog a little on the way to the train station. I'm not saying that was impossible, but I will say that it was so painful that I went back to walking immediately.

Obama and a New New Deal

My take this week in the papers of the GPD (in Dutch), for example the Brabants Dagblad, yesterday. There are many significant differences (for example: the current crisis really doesn't compare in sheer popular misery and fear to 1932-1933), but what both men have in common is the determination to restore the bond between the people and their government, to reestablish government as a central (and: competent) force in society, working to make sure that the nation's founding principles have meaning for all citizens.

Treacherous Ride

It snowed/sleeted last night, and then it went below freezing. So I wasn't sure if it would be wise to ride in today. This country is a swamp, and things don't dry out here; instead, they, including the roads and bike paths, always seem to be damp. But the first thing I saw when I looked out the window at 6:30 was my friend Piet riding by the house. Piet has been doing the commute to Amsterdam for many years, summer and winter. The only time he doesn't ride is when it's icy, because he really can't afford a fall. So seeing him ride by settled it for me. But it turned out that it was very sketchy all the way into the city, in part because over here, they don't send the salt trucks out every time there's a possibility of snow or ice. I made it into the city without too much trouble, but then went down twice in a row without having time to catch myself. It was as if someone just ripped the bike out from under me. Both falls were on my left side, on the last two bridges on the Singel gracht before my building. They just looked wet, but in reality they were iced over. In the shower just now I could see I have two nice bruises, one on my elbow and one on my hip. In the second crash, I also poked myself in the ribs, and that could well be a third bruise. When I get home tonight I'll have to call Piet, see what he was thinking. I hope he kept it upright all the way this morning.

[Evening update:] At 11:00, after my first class, I went for my cup of coffee at the corner place, which is right at the second place I went down three hours earlier. And guess what: the salt truck had showed up! I think they had just put the salt down, probably on an ice-free surface, given that the sun had been up for three hours and the temperature had risen well above freezing. I guess it's asking too much for the city to have these crews out before rush hour. No word from Piet yet, maybe I'll try to call him one more time. Bruises not too bad, although the rib cage is sensitive.

Sore Body on a Calm Saturday

Speedskating is a very hard sport. It's that way for top athletes, and it certainly is hard when you first get back on the ice in the fall. I felt sore and tired the whole week after a short hour of some single laps at Amsterdam's Jaap Edenbaan.I suppose it didn't help that it was windy on Monday and that after eight years at the indoor rink in Milwaukee I'm not used to skating with wind. I could not believe the way my legs felt climbing the railroad bridge near Weesp on Wednesday morning (Tuesday morning I had taken it easy because of the icy conditions). So I was happy this morning with the calm conditions. There was some wind, and it was in my face most of the way out to Lage Vuursche, for example along the Loenderveense Plas, but it wasn't bad, although it still took some effort to keep the spedometer above 17 (required speed to get to the restaurant right at the 10 am opening time). It was mid- to high 30s, and on the way home the sun started pushing through the cloudcover to the point where we could detect our shadows on the ground. I was comfortable in a jacket (two more layers underneath), thick (though not yet the insulated) tights, balaclava, lobster gloves, and winter shoes (no covers). The investment in these SIDI winter shoes a few years ago is really paying off now. They already made winterriding in Milwaukee more feasible, but these days on the commute to Amsterdam, I really never have to worry about cold or wet feet. The ride back was friendly and easy, and the wind was at my back once again the last 11 miles along the Vecht river. It's a great privilege indeed to be able to do this almost every week.

Highly Recommended: The Dirty Dozen

Pittsburgh's Danny Chew's ride like no other, traditionally the Saturday after Thanksgiving. If you're in the neighborhood of Pittsburgh and have a 39x28 (or lighter) handy, this is highly recommended, at least if you don't mind a few hills. The Dirty Dozen takes all day and goes over the thirteen steepest climbs in the Pittsburgh metropolitan area, where there is lots, lots to choose from. It's a race up every hill, neutral in between, and they wait for everyone at the top of the climb. Be glad it's not the 1980s, when most of them were cobbles and the Dirty Dozen code of honor basically mandated 42x24 gearing. Having done the ride twice, I can't imagine how they did that. Look, for example, at Canton Avenue, certified as the world's steepest street, where you need a good running start and then have to shift up flawlessly and maintain a straight line; if you start swerving only a little bit, you're lost. Sycamore Street, of the old Thrift Drug Classic days, is one of the easier ones on the list. Here's a YouTube clip from the last hill, Flowers-Tesla in Hazelwood, last year--you can find more by searching for "Dirty Dozen Pittsburgh" on YouTube. One of these days I'm going to fish hard for a Thanksgiving invitation at a Pittsburgh friend's home, so that I can also do a third Dirty Dozen, and get my name on Danny's list of people with three or more Dirty Dozens under their belt. (If I had a lot of money, I might well go back every year). If you go this weekend, get there early, because with a forecast of 43 degrees and sunny skies there promise to be over 100 people at the Washington Boulevard Swan'Odrome gathering place.

Stretching Pinochet

In an ad in the current New York Review of Books, Basic Books goes a little overboard trying to sell Heraldo Muñoz's The Dictator's Shadow: Life Under Augusto Pinochet, A Political Memoir: "Augusto Pinochet was the most important Third World dictator of the Cold War, and perhaps the most ruthless." He was important, but especially to Chile, and he was a bastard. Still, the "most important" of them all? We'd have to place China outside of the Third World, for starters, but then would still be left with figures such as Pol Pot, Mobutu, Syngman Rhee, Suharto, a whole series of fellow tyrants in the Western hemisphere, to say nothing of Middle East tyrants such as the Shah, Khomeini, Saddam Hussein, Hasaf Al Assad--the list goes on. I'm sure Muñoz's book is a valuable contribution to the historiography of Cold War Chile, and of U.S. intervention in Latin America and the wider Third World. This kind of sales job, however (how does one define "important" in this case anyway?), says more about the political position of the publisher than the Cold War in the Third World. And let me hasten to repeat: Pinochet was most certainly a bastard. And let me also hasten to add: the U.S. role in his coming to power and Washington's support for his regime was certainly also misguided, to say the least.

Daniel Ortega Doesn't Change Much,

and now many of his comrades-in-arms are beginning to see the light. When I returned to my graduate education in 1992 after a visit to Nicaragua during which a friend and I had interviewed Nicaragua's former president, one teacher was not impressed. "He's a tyrant!" was his response to the picture of Ortega and I shaking hands. I should still have the picture somewhere, but I'll admit it's not in a frame, and maybe in part that's due to my teacher's response to what I thought was mainly a coup (after all: at the time I didn't speak one word of Spanish--my friend, and an American free-lance journalist who was also in the interview, did all the talking; at the time I believed I understood about 25% of what was being said). The man indeed is a little dictator, and he's proving it during his new tenure as his country's president to the point where he is now losing prominent, long-standing members of what in recent years has already been a truncated Sandinista party. First he alienates large sections of his movement (which go on to found their own political movement), now he's losing people from those who decided to stick with him. Back during the 1970s and 1980s there was a clear, and not terribly uplifting, U.S. role in Nicaraguan events, one that to an extent explained some of the less than democratic policies Ortega and the Sandinistas pushed through. What's interesting about this week's article is the absence of any mention of a U.S. role. Sadly, Nicaraguans seem to be inflicting most of their ongoing, apparently never-ending misery on each other, without much help from the outside; and sadly, a deluded, washed-up Cold War revolutionary, one who should have retired a long time ago, is doing a lot of the damage.

Wintry Riding

No coffee ride, this weekend, because on Friday the weather turned a little violent (very strong winds, temperatures down into the mid-30s, and regular snow and hail showers during which the winds got even stronger), and on Saturday it was still a little iffy. We could have gone, Saturday morning, but would almost certainly have run into a snow or hail shower or two, and the wind would still have been pretty fierce. I wasn't that eager anyway, because for a variety of reasons I managed to ride to the city and back last week on four consecutive days. Eight hours on the bike: not bad for mid-November. Today the Sunday group did its traditional mountainbike loop through Lage Vuursche (indeed, the old Vuursche Boer again--but their applie pie, and their service, really is always excellent, so why change?). In order to ride, I had to prepare the old tractor, my red Trek 920 which I bought used at the end of 1995 at Pittsburgh Pro Bicycles (then still on Murray) because in that December month I rather suddenly really needed a snow bike. I also took it on many epic mountainbike rides with Pittsburgh Masters Velo Club through two of Pittsburgh's great parks: Schenley and Frick, which both offer a great variety of challenging single track trails and easier, wider stuff. If we concluded these rides at the old slag heaps overlooking the Monongahela River (now sadly sacrificed to development projects), we got an original "triple crown" ride (of course still completed at the 61C on Murray). In 1996, during a semester in Leipzig, Germany, I took the Trek, newly fitted with slick tires, for my city bike. But on Sunday mornings, I'd use it for a 2-3 hour road ride, to the southeast of the city, through towns like Altenhain and Brandis. Barren, windy, rides. The past eight years, the Trek has exclusively served as snow bike, to get me to work when there was too much snow to ride the skinny tires. This past winter, Milwaukee's second snowiest on record, it saw more duty that its owner cared for, and there were days the snow really was too thick to ride through. On those days, my little 2 mile commute took me half an hour or so, and I'd usually fall off a couple of times (not a real problem in the thick snow). The other week, I remounted the slick tires for the first time since Leipzig, and today we had a fine, muddy ride through various woods and heathlands. Nothing that was difficult technically, but there were quite a few places where it was icy, even on the packed-down dirt trails in the woods. It took me about an hour altogether to clear bike, rider, and clothing, but it was worth it.

Russia, Georgia, and NATO: Go Slow

Anne Applebaum, too, emphasizes how the Georgia-Russia story is complicated, certainly more complicated than "good" versus "evil" (regardless of whom you'd call good, or justified in his conduct here). She doesn't directly discuss the issue of possible NATO membership of Georgia, but there seems little doubt as to where she stands on that, given her conclusion:

In the long term, the Georgians need to choose a leader who can promote true political and economic stability. Until then, Western leaders should support Georgian democracy—not particular Georgian democrats—and prepare a unified response to the Russian military escapades to come. And while the propaganda battle rages, they must stay on the sidelines.
Premature, at best. And it raises the question: if there may be other ways for the West ("unified"--good luck with that) to respond to Russian military escapades, where does this leave NATO as the central security framework for an expanding transatlantic community? Forecasting eventual Georgian membership in the alliance, as most Western leaders did last summer, does not seem to be helpful here. It's nothing new to say this, but it appears that the further East NATO goes, the more it becomes a cause for trouble, instead of the stabilizing factor it is designed to be. This is ironic, because from an East European perspective, the main benefit of NATO membership is to deter Russia from trying to impose its will on what used to be its sphere of influence. Paradoxically, both could hold: Russia is probably more circumspect (though not without means of applying pressure) in its dealings with the Baltic states because of their membership in the alliance, but the expansion of NATO into the Baltic region has also made Russia more difficult to deal with on a range of issues. Meanwhile, the other reason for NATO expansion (encourage the development of open societies in formerly communist countries, or, expanding the democratic transatlantic community) can be seen as having worked fairly well. Of course, there are plenty of people who would argue that this latter goal can also be achieved through the EU's eastward expansion alone; although I'm not sure if a majority among them can be found in Eastern Europe, or whether Russia doesn't view EU expansion as a hostile act also. So it keeps coming back to relations with Russia. And I'm afraid there are no clear answers. Obviously we don't want to give Russia veto power over everything the West (EU/NATO) tries to do in Eastern Europe, in part because Russia's objections to the region's westernization derive from the fact that Russia's rulers see westernization as a threat to their power base at home (there's your Cold War parallel for the day). On the other hand, Russia is there, it's important (it's getting colder now in Europe, and we need their natural gas), and we're not going to go to war with it over places like Georgia, no matter how admirable parts of its democratization have been. Still, it really does appear that further NATO expansion (also into Ukraine) had better be kept on the back burner for the foreseeable future.

Russia, (Georgia), and the West--the Other Perspective

It comes from New York Times columnist Nicholas Kristoff, who just visited Georgia. It's a pretty convincing argument for making the Georgia situation less central to relations with Moscow (which is not the same as going back to business-as-usual with Putin and his gang). In his conversations with Georgians (journalists, for example), Kristoff was able to confirm that Georgia is still a ways off from being a genuinely open society (which would be one requirement for EU and NATO membership). And he makes a compelling argument that NATO membership would be exactly the wrong thing, not only for the West, but also for Georgia itself.

Europe and Russia

As expected, now that it has gotten around to it, the Wall Street Journal doesn't have kind things to say about "Europe's" decision to resume the talks with Russia about a comprehensive cooperative agreement, talks suspended last summer because of the invasion of Georgia. John Vinocour in today's International Herald Tribune is equally scornful of French president Sarkozy's "leadership" of the EU. One trait the two pieces have in common: how Russia plays with the Europeans the way a cat plays with a dead mouse.

A Very Fine Commute

If your normal departure time is so early that you still need lights, run into packs of school kids, and need an extra pair of eyes to survive the intersection of your bikepath with the massive and reckless foot traffic behind the Amsterdam Central Station, then a day like today is another world. Sunny, calm, cool but not cold--and I only needed to get on my way around 9:30. The road along the Vecht was quiet (as always), bright, and smooth; getting through Weesp was a breeze; standing up on the little climb up the railroad bridge outside of Weesp was a nice (albeit too short) lung-opener; and the bikepath alongside the Amsterdam Rijnkanaal was pretty empty. There were boats on the canal, which always makes it interesting; but in the city, there were very few bikes, and even fewer pedestrians behind the train station. I was sad to have to end my ride after 50-55 minutes and look forward already to the ride home in a couple of hours. Next up in commuting land: I'll bring my giant motorcycle chain lock to the city the next time I come in on the train, so that I don't have to carry any lock or cable with my any more (as I've been doing until now).

It's Saturday, This Must Be The Coffee Ride

And it was, the second week in a row. One more time, and we'll have a tradition needing to be maintained. Another mild, dry Saturday, another moderate southwesterly wind; only today was just about completely overcast. The sun did try to peek through between Tienhoven and the Vecht on the way home (which was very nice), but that was about it. Having learned last week how close Lage Vuursche really is to Nederhorst den Berg, I added two small detours to get the first part of the ride to last an hour (instead of 40-45 minutes). Near Kortenhoef, I took the Moleneind, and after that rode through Loosdrecht. This early right turn also gets you away from the continuous car traffic on the highway to Hilversum. That's still a very pretty road, but the traffic ruins it a little. Then, at the Hilversum airport (there really is one), I took the little road tracing the airfield's perimeter, instead of the main road to Hollandsche Rading. Eventually, this little road also gets you there, but it's much prettier, and you hardly run into any moving cars at all. At the Vuursche Boer, I had seventeen miles--just like the route of the original coffee ride between Milwaukee's East Side and Fiddleheads in Thiensville. No Eendracht group this week at the restaurant, but on the way home I saw one team member. I was chasing him down, but just as I was about to catch up to him, he suddenly stopped at a little bridge to admire the view. Wonder what was up with that. The ride home ran through Maartensdijk, Westbroek, Tienhoven, and polder Bethune, where there's considerable opposition against plans to turn this farmland into a wetland (no more pumping to keep the water level low enough for farming and instead let it flood and allow nature to take its course). We decided that certainly if flooding the area would also eliminate our valued Middenweg, we would add our own original sign protesting the plan. Absolutely lovely final couple of miles home along the Vecht river. 38 miles exactly for the day, and I did look at the average speed this time: 17.2.

Juliana and Bernhard: The Cold War Did It

The Dutch monarchy (and the rest of the country) experienced a existential crisis during the 1950s, one that was resolved only after the intervention of the government. The episode has become known as the "Greet Hofmans Affaire" because of the influence the faith healer of the same name exercised on Queen Juliana. The traditional interpretation is that the semi-wacko queen had become the emotional and spiritual captive of full-on wacko Ms. Hofmans. But it appears the traditional interpretation needs correcting, and that Juliana's husband, the very independent Bernhard (playboy, chair of the notorious Bildenberg meetings, World Wildlife advocate, big game hunter, international business wheeler-and-dealer, among many other things) deserves much of the responsibility, together with the good old Cold War. Historian Cees Fasseur published a new study on this crisis this week, for which he has been able to draw (with Queen Beatrix's permission) on Juliana's and Bernhard's papers in the royal archives. Initial reactions and interviews earlier this week focused on the personalities involved, and in particular on the kind of marriage the royal couple had (see above, under "playboy" and "semi-wacko"). From the early discussions this week, one also got the impression that Ms. Hofmans's influence indeed was pernicious, and that many people at home and abroad wondered what on earth the queen might be thinking. As an example, people have often pointed to Juliana's address to a joint session of Congress in April 1952, a plea for international collaboration, especially in non-military fields, and an implicit rejection of the Cold War division of the world. Ultimately, it was Bernhard who brought things to a head, causing the Dutch government in 1956 to force the queen to break with Hofmans. And how could he not, one was inclined to ask. But today, the Volkskrant has a review of the book by writer and historian Anet Bleich (author herself of a new biography of 1970s prime-minister Joop den Uyl, who had to cope with a constitutional crisis too, the so-called Lockheed Affair--another case where Bernhard's behavior had crossed the line). In a balanced take on Fasseur's book, Bleich makes it all a little more complicated, or rather, she shifts the focus to Bernhard--and to the Cold War. Hofman's influence, Bleich argues, really wasn't as pervasive. Instead, between her and Juliana it was much more a meeting of minds, a shared concern about international developments such as the nuclear arms race, the danger of nuclear war (but also about the importance of development assistance to poor countries). Also, the two became friends because Juliana couldn't really count on her philandering husband for any kind of emotional bond (Bernhard habitually took his mistress on the royal family's skiing vacations and had her stay in the same hotel, to give one example). It was these two factors that pushed Bernhard into action (leaking things to the press, which eventually brought everything into the open, forcing the government to intervene): the fact that he was losing influence in the royal household and was even being challenged over his selfish conduct; and, most intriguingly, Juliana's political views, the way she managed to express them publicly, and how this deviated from what he, Bernhard, and most of conventional wisdom thought about international politics. The two can't be separated, so one can't really argue that the Cold War alone brought about a constitutional crisis in a NATO country in the mid-1950s. However, that this "Hofmans Affair" is a central episode in early Dutch Cold War history seems pretty clear now also. (This, and the fact that the Fasseur and the Bleich books need to go on my reading list).

Mitch Mitchell

The last one of the Jimi Hendrix Experience to die. What does this have to do with the Cold War? Well, there was a lot of great new music back then (the late 1960s) that fed off and interacted with the tumultuous events of the time (Vietnam; the counterculture), but to me no sound is as representative for the heady, ominous atmosphere back then as that of this "band of gypsys." Mitchell was only 62 (and yesterday in London there were still three World War I veterans at the annual commemoration services) but his passing still is a reminder that while the 1960s, Vietnam, the Cold War remain defining eras in millions of people's lives today, they're also becoming--not yesterday, but the-day-before-yesterday, as in: over and done with; history, in other words. I can't claim truly to have been a participant back then, but I do remember the times, and I guess all this makes me kind-of old too.

The Unchanging Western Alliance

One of my students this semester is doing an original project on the balance-of-payments crisis between the U.S. and Western Europe of the early 1960s, which in large part was about burden sharing in the defense of common interests. To say the least, the burdens back then were shared unevenly, to the considerable frustration of several U.S. administrations, not to mention Congress. Two other students are looking at the Middle East War of 1973, when European actions (or lack thereof) caused Henry Kissinger to comment: "I don't care what happens to Europe--I'm so disgusted." (This during what he himself had proclaimed as The Year of Europe). The Western Alliance is still here, bigger than ever, but as the Wall Street Journal argues today, not too much has changed in the burden sharing department. The paper talks about "the Continent's free-riding on U.S. security while criticizing the way that security is provided ..." That's fine as far as it goes, but in order really to sort out the issue today, one would have to take a closer look at the alleged common interests. They're there, just like during the Cold War, but exactly what they are (and how they ought to be promoted) seems much more complicated than it used to be. In proper academese: it's significantly more contested and contingent.

No Way to be a Hard Man

Today is the third consecutive work day that for some reason I've taken the train to the city. Also skipped the Sunday ride. This morning was the saddest case because hearing the rain hit the window at 6:30 and seeing much activity on the weather radar, I decided against riding in (we happen to have a car this week). I got my punishment almost immediately, as I had to sit in a traffic jam less than three miles into the drive to the train station. As if that wasn't enough, it hardly rained at all during what would have been my hour on the bike. I could have run into a shower or two, but nothing particularly horrible. How sad. I feel like Martin Sheen in the opening scenes of Apocalypse Now (every day I'm here in this hotel room, I'm getting softer; while every day Charlie, out there in the jungle, is getting tougher--or words to that effect: there's your Cold War angle for the day). I think I'm beginning to look fat too.

A United Europe

Minus Lithuania. The issue is resuming comprehensive talks with Russia about an entire set of ties, especially energy. This is not necessarily a good thing, in part because it comes amid fresh reports of Russian/Ossetian violations of cease fire agreements in Georgia. It's not that one should not talk to adversaries, if that's what Russia is right now, but it doesn't exactly strengthen one's negotiating position (weak already because of internal divisions and a dependency of Russian natural gas) when you come back to the negotiating table while the other side refuses fully to carry out agreements it made with you only a few months ago. Maybe the fact that winter is around the corner had something to do with this decision? More important, amid the financial and economic turmoil, doesn't Russia need a few things from Europe as well? I wonder if talks to explore the possibility of (real) talks could not have preceded this united action. Of course, for such talks, a united Europe probably could not have been assembled.

Coffee Ride!

Just got home from the first "meet-in-the-middle" coffee ride since arriving in Holland last August. If you're in Holland and happen to be reading this early Saturday afternoon: get out there, because it's a beautiful day (and it's not going to last). Left the house a little before nine, and there wasn't a cloud in the sky. High 40s, moderate south wind. The roads/bike paths were damp to wet, and they were scattered with leaves. In other words a perfect fall morning. I had forgotten how close our destination, Lage Vuursche, really is (only 14 miles), and got there about 20 minutes early. So I did an extra little loop where I got to watch a young dog off its leash in search of its owner lose its way, run into the busy Soestdijkerweg, and almost get run over by a car. The Lage Vuursche restaurants don't open until 10 am, so that's when we entered de Vuursche Boer (owned at one time, I learned, by the great Gerrie Knetemann) at the head, it turned out, of a steady stream of (mountain)bikers. One group was the team I joined back in September for one of their training rides on the road and may still join: de Eendracht of Loenen aan de Vecht. Didn't recognize any of the guys, although one or two looked vaguely familiar. They were gone again before I could walk over for a chat. We rode back together to the Vecht river by way of Maartensdijk, Achttienhoven (where this van Dijk family originates), Westbroek, and Tienhoven. There, the Utrecht delegation of one took a left, while the Nederhorst den Berg contingent took a right to ride the tailwind all the way home. 39 miles, and probably not even an 18 m/h average (you're not supposed to care during a coffee ride, just like you're not supposed to sweat, or take the chain off the small ring).

Live Blogging the President-Elect, 5

(9:08) What will he read in terms of presidential history (I think is the question) for guidance? Bland answer. Now the dog, equally bland, which is all good: he seems all business, real business.
(9:09) The state of U.S. intelligence? What's he going to say? He has to work with these people on a daily basis. He's had intelligence briefings, there's always room for improvement everywhere. Good thing he didn't say more.
(9:10) Tax policy? Overarching goal is helping people, stimulate economic growth.

And that's it. (9:11) So why did he do this? It was short, and as far as I was able to determine, there wasn't any news. I suppose he did this (and will continue to do so) because having won the election and with Bush on the way out, people will expect him to come out, even if he won't/can't say too much. Something notable was that on the issue of the stimulus package he said that this would be his first order of business "if no package is passed during the lame-duck session." That could also be read as pressure, intervention in the policy debate with the goal of moving things along. So I suppose increasingly he may take charge a little, without really taking charge ("we only have one president").
Well, I'd like to think about something else now. For starters I'd like to turn off CNN's talking heads. (9:17).

Live Blogging the President-Elect, 4

(9:02) Question on Iran. Iranian nuclear weapon still unacceptable, but he doesn't want to talk about it really yet ("I'm not the president")--no surprise.
(9:03) Does he expect problems with Bush during the transition? Not really.
(9:04) How fast on cabinet appointments? He'll be fast but deliberate, get it right--I'm sure he will, these are not small decisions. It's as with his own victory: at a time like this the psychological effect of personnel issues can be major.

Live Blogging the President-Elect, 3

Auto industry and its troubles is a focus (8:56), which makes sense--let's just wait and see whether the emphasis will be on forcing Detroit to produce more green automobiles, or on freeing them from certain union contract constraints (which Japanese automakers producing in the U.S., for example, do not have).
First question: he believes in the potential positive psychological effect of hitting the ground running in January (9:00), the potential power of presidential leadership.
Second question: stimulus package is essential--no real surprise, content, again, will be decisive.

Live Blogging the President-Elect, 2

He's reminding us that he's not the president yet. (8:54 Holland time) True, but as he says now himself, he's already on the job with a team, making plans (8:55)

Live Blogging the President-Elect

We just got the one minute warning for Obama's appearance at the podium for his first press-conference as president elect. Not that both my readers are constantly clicking their "refresh" button now, but "live blogging" an event is something I've seen others do, and I just happen to be sitting here with the tv on. Here he is--more soon.

For the Executive Summary ...

... of my op-ed this week, you can go to the Gelderlander. Slightly edited for use after the election, but still pretty much intact, it's also in the Brabants Dagblad.

Foggy Riding by the Canal

The past few days have been rather quiet and foggy, especially yesterday. Not great riding circumstances, except alongside the Amsterdam-Rijnkanaal. Riding by it several times a week, the canal and its ships ("binnenvaartschepen"-- inner-coastal cargo ships) are both endlessly fascinating and deeply familiar. My connection goes back to the time we moved to Weesp, in 1966. At that time, we could still see the canal from our second-story apartment, about half a mile away, the business district that would come to block our view a few years later not having been built yet. I remember my mom taking us swimming there--or at least watch construction workers go for a swim on their lunch breaks. They'd try to climb onto passing ships, ride along for a little ways before jumping (or being chased) off. Occasionally, my mom would let me in the water near the shore. When a ship passed, the current would pull you back, or forward, parallel to the shore--you'd be passing your group on the shore without having to swim. A little down the road from where we used to go, near Diemen, a older cousin and his friends had a rope tied to the freeway bridge with which they'd "Tarzan" themselves far into this water highway. These days, the traffic often is so heavy, that it's really not a place for swimming any more. But there are still days, just like in the 1980s when I would ride my bike here as a student, when, if they asked me what I want to be when I grow up, I'd say: "binnenvaartschipper" (skipper on one of those boats). I'm sure the reality isn't nearly as romantic as one imagines it from a distance. Speaking of distance: yesterday, in the fog, it was difficult to make out anything. Often, the first thing you'd notice was the sound of a bow pushing through the water. Looking over, all you could make out was a vague, dark shadow passing by. Tonight, visibility was a little better, but after dark in the calm weather the scene was still strangely quiet, almost intimate. (Especially because I wasn't sniffing and coughing and spitting too much any more: got over my cold without missing a ride!)

Read All About It 2

In case you're more partial to the other Holland (Zuid Holland), you can also find my piece on the Republican bind in het Leidsch Dagblad. (They've chosen to use the same picture as the Noord Hollanders).

Read All About It: The Republicans' Predicament

The paper of my own province, Noord Holland, has my piece today about the Republican Party's predicament. You have to be able to read Dutch (although it has one picture).

Why is it So Difficult to Vote?

This article by way of a colleague on how ex-pats have great trouble at times even to get a hold of a ballot, let alone getting it counted. The description here of how things (do not) function stateside is one concern people have about tomorrow. Sure, it's likely to be a turnout without precedent in living memory, but election day mechanics have been on the front burner now for almost eight years. Why do things not function more smoothly? Well, much has been done by many dedicated, hardworking officials and volunteers in many jurisdictions to improve things, so it's not inevitably going to be mayhem at the polls tomorrow. But part of the problems that remain is a lack of resources, ultimately caused by a reluctance of many Americans to pay the bill (that would be taxes) for a civilized society. So what you get instead is a country with many pockets (physical and metaphorical) of variations of something less than civilization. Most Americans do not seem to mind too much most of the time. Being somewhere else now, "civilized" Western Europe, I must say that it's nice, on the one hand, to have public things taken care of pretty well, generally speaking; on the other hand, there are those bills ...

Riding with a Cold

It can be done, as I demonstrated today on the Sunday ride, but it has to be done with care. I got comments at the coffee stop for wearing a balaclava (and full gloves, and booties) when the temperature was about 8 centigrade--mid-forties, in other words. But it made getting started (new winter starting time of 9 am) easier. I also was careful not to push it. Did my turns at the front, but my pulls weren't the longest or the hardest. Our leader, John, was back from his long summer weekends in the Limburg hills. It was my first Sunday ride with him, a legitimate former racer, on the ride, and it's clear we have a natural leader (in addition to a sponsor). John also seemed to have the best legs today. We were lucky with the weather: cool, but sunny, and little wind. This is not typical Dutch fall weather, but the guys were commenting how things are different these days from twenty years ago: the leaves stay on the trees longer, in part because there seem to be fewer fall storms also. Still, there were plenty of (wet) leaves on the ground, and there were many turns we took a little gingerly. It being November now, it was striking how many people have already switched to mountain bikes. My group, they mentioned today, has 6 degrees centigrade as a lower limit for the road bike. If it gets any colder, they take their mountain bikes and look for sheltered, off road routes to our regular coffee stop, de Vuursche Boer, in Lage Vuursche (a "town" with a very high Hans and Grethel content) where we have our own table (we think). The others shook their heads when I said that last winter in Milwaukee, I had lowered my road bike limit to about 12 Fahrenheit. It doesn't look like I'll have too much use for all my heavy winter gear from Wisconsin here. For one thing, if it gets to be 12, I'll definitely be skating the frozen canals and lakes instead of riding my bike. Today I got 46 miles, and I had no trouble with my cold. Not that it's gone, but it hasn't gotten any worse either.

Coming Up in Your Amsterdam Student Paper

An interview with me: blogger, cyclist, and, oh, that's right, Cold War historian. Tuesday at the P.C. Hoofthuis in Eindeloos I'm told.

Coming Up in Your Local Dutch Paper

A piece on the Republican party I wrote yesterday. It should be out on Monday or Tuesday. As soon as I find it on the web somewhere, I'll link to it.

Winter Arrived

But it's the early 21st century Dutch winter, so it is relative. Still, I was a little unrepared for low 40s when I got on the bike early Tuesday morning, less than 24 hours after returning from the U.S. I was without gloves or a hat, which wasn't great, and the last 20 minutes into the city it also started to rain. A bit miserable, although I've seen much worse. It did mean another health hit, after the plane trip and time-difference, and in the course of the day I noticed an oncoming cold. You're supposed to listen to your body, and when it got to be time to go home, I really didn't feel like getting out there again, and the prospect of starting another commute at seven the next morning was even less appealing. There was also the chance of more rain, so I wimped out and took the train and bus home, and back again the next morning. Finished the riding Wednesday evening, this time wearing a balaclava and full gloves. I needed them--today also, when I rode in late (and pleasantly). That it has been a hard week I felt on the way home this afternoon, into a chilly East wind. Not much energy left. The good part in all of this is that if the past ten winters or so here are any guide, it probably won't get a whole lot worse this winter.

What is China Thinking?

Something I can't figure out. They just unveiled the largest statue ever of the greatest mass murderer of the 20th century at Chongqing Medical University, apparently one of the top ten universities in this vast, populous country. I guess being the founding father of the modern Chinese state outweighs things like the Great Leap Forward, the Cultural Revolution--economic and political strategies that cost millions upon millions of innocent people their lives and which, certainly as far as economics is concerned, have been discarded by the current regime. The authorities--local or national--must have approved it (if they didn't initiate it also), otherwise this thing would not exist. Not knowing much about China, my guess would be that the power of Mao as a national symbol continues to be so significant, and China's national cohesion so brittle, that the regime not only doesn't feel it can't allow an honest reckoning with Mao's bloody legacy, but that it actually actively needs to employ Mao's mythic persona to hold things together. Apparently, this kind of thing still works among the majority of the Chinese population. All this seems to indicate that there are severe limits to a potential Chinese leadership role in today's globalized world: for one thing, the regime has its hands full staying on top of rapid economic, social, and cultural change at home; for another, a regime that still derives part of its legitimacy from a tyrant such as Mao would have little credibility seeking a leadership role in an increasingly open and openminded world (which would be one definition of globalization).

2007 in Sardinia

You can read the official report on the PMVC website.
Below the version from my chronicle.

The next morning [May 19, after the near-epic Steven Rooks Classic--95 miles through between Maastricht and Remouchamps, Belgium] it was on to Brussels, where I hooked up with Steve and Dusty. After arriving in San Vero, we manged to do a version of the Cuglieri ride (46). I didn’t feel very good at first. Legs wouldn’t move and my shoes hurt my feet, a problem that would return frequently. But on the fast downhill sections, starting in downtown Cuglieri, I began to improve, and the three of us rode quite hard at times going home. One gelato stop. First full ride on Sardinia was the Ghilarza ride, which I had missed three years ago and which we didn’t get to last year. A nice ride with several medium long, not very hard climbs, and the weather was beautiful also. At 77 it would turn out to be the longest ride of the whole week. Monday we went to the East Coast to do a new ride from Nuoro. A bit busy going through Oliena toward Dorgali, but pretty also. From Dorgali we went up the hill, through the tunnel, and down the hill into Cala Conone, the first time I had truly reached the East Coast. Leaving after lunch, I lost the others and rode back alone, following, it turned out, a different route from the others who rode back the same way we had come. I instead took the steep, little road going north and then back into Dorgali through the backdoor. It was quite steep and I had to work hard to get up it in the 25, in part because the pavement was concrete plates, not asphalt. After the first pass, the road turned into asphalt for a little bit of downhill before more climbing. It was a cool road, even though the climb back to the tunnel would have been nice too (but more like other climbs we do on Sardinia). Getting to Dorgali, the water bottles we hadn’t quite finished on the way out were still outside at the supermarket, and I drank some and filled my bottles from them before continuing. Climb back into Nuoro—again I took a different route from the way out, this time inadvertently—was trafficy but also fairly steep (57 miles). Tuesday we went to Bosa where in the first town a few miles out Oscar asked for the keys to the van because he was feeling terrible. Couldn’t breathe, and later that night he ended up in the hospital for three nights. The rest of us rode on to Villanova Monteleone, seeing maybe two cars the entire way. Dusty, Michele, and I reached Alghero first, and we rode right through it (it really was too early to stop again). The three of us rode most of what is probably the most beautiful stretch of the entire trip together, causing me to take it easy, but I really wasn’t that eager to go hard or far all week (the Steven Rooks Classic definitely had taken the edge off). This way, I was able to enjoy the ride along the coast even more (68). Back in Bosa I had very little interest in riding back to San Vero, and unlike Steve (who was o.k. with it then) I still have no regrets. [o.k., now, October 2008, I do] Driving home, we took a different hill out of Bosa, toward Macoma, the one the Giro must have taken after arriving in Bosa. Wednesday was a rest day, in part because of visits to Oscar in the hospital. After accompanying Michele to the hospital in the morning I rode an easy, flat loop past Putzu Idu and Riola in the afternoon (26). Thursday we also stayed close to home because it appeared that at 2 pm we could take Oscar home from the hospital. We did the Paulolatino-Ula Tirso-Solarussa loop quickly. Michele and I hammered home from Fordongianus to get panini. I pulled the whole way, getting a little tired at the end, but we did get to the store just before closing time. (57). Friday was the actual day Oscar was released, but we did a full ride nonetheless, Teti-Desulo. I was getting tired—although riding with what now was just Dusty, Steve, and Michele really wasn’t hard. Enjoyed the Desulo climb the most that day. Just rode a steady pace in the 21. I had dropped Michele already before Desulo. Decided to stay out of the 23 all the way to the top, which wasn’t too difficult, so I cannot have been too tired (68). Initially we were going to do the Laconi ride on Saturday, but during breakfast it became clear that Michele wasn’t up for it. I really wasn’t eager for it either, especially because it would have meant riding pretty much the whole ride ahead of the other two, and on my own. There was also the matter of the van ride, which didn’t appeal too much to anyone. So the four of us ended up doing another Cuglieri ride, this time taking the high road all the way from Narbolia. Dense fog on the Cuglieri side of the hill. In town we ran into a wedding, with the bride leading the party on foot right through the middle of town. Things started to clear on the fast, downhill section to the little coastal villages. We stopped in the first one, and I had gelato at the same place as the first day. A very good decision to ride from “home” (50).

These are Dusty's mileage and climbing statistics from that blissful week:

monteferru 47 3440  (steve, dusty, ruud)
ghilarza 74 7500
calle gonnoni 55 5400
bosa 68 6175
tharos 46 862
paulilatino 52 3156
sarule desulo 69 6524
monteferru 48 3200

total 459
alt 36,257

Blindness to Nuance

InU.S. Third World policy during the Cold War (with "communism" blotting out local particularities and making for ugly interventions--see for example Iran, Guatemala, Vietnam), and today, in the "war on terror," for example in Somalia. We will argue for a long time over the exact role of the U.S. in the Somalia disaster (as we continue to argue over Cold War cases such as Vietnam), but Somalia is not the only recent case that makes one wonder about the extent to which a superpower such as the U.S. is able to learn from past experience. Remember, for example how unprepared the U.S. was for the occupation of Iraq (how many speakers of Arabic again, early on?) and, even more important, how irrelevant decisionmakers believed this to be? Granted that the choice in these cases often is from a range of bad options, but if you're considering steps with the potential of turning a society or government upside down, at least do your homework. As Vietnam, Iraq, etc. show, long term that's in your own interest also.

Catching up

It rained yesterday in Holland, but it didn't matter to me, because I was in Milwaukee, where the skies were mostly blue, the wind brisk, and the riding just right for late October. We had 12 or 13 people at Atwater Park, and together we inspected the nice new pavement on Bonniwell before turning North, and then back East to end up for a first coffee stop at the Alterra in Grafton. We even sat outside. Earned our keep on the way home (Green Bay Rd, River Hills) and assembled for a second cup at the original Alterra, on Prospect. At that point, there were still six of us. The riding (I also did a somewhat unusual Wednesday ride) wasn't the only reason for this trip; one would have to say that it wasn't even the main reason. The main reason was work: a conference on "1968" for which I'm one of the co-organizers. That's where the Cold War comes in again (and in a post, no less, which also deals with cycling!). But I'll have to write more about it later, as I'm just back in Holland, and a full day of teaching awaits tomorrow. But it sure was nice to be able to catch up a little with so many friends, on campus and out on Southeastern Wisconsin's open roads.

Good Fall Riding

Friday I got out for a quick 20 miler at the end of the day under a spectacular "big" Dutch sky: partly cloudy and a setting sun. The light is magical at those moments. Lots of poor commuters sitting in long lines at traffic lights as I spun by doing about 19 in the small ring, enjoying almost perfectly calm conditions. It's tights weather now, and Friday I was also glad I put on three long sleeve jerseys. Just made it home before dark, although I did have to turn on my flasher the last ten minutes or so. When daylight savings time ends, next week, these little rides won't be possible again until next March or so. Today, was another nice fall day. A little more wind, but also clearing skies half-way through the morning. The three of us had chosen to do the Nieuwkoop loop again, the same ride we did in foggy conditions a few weeks ago. Headwind going out, but really not bad. This time we could actually see the beautiful area surrounding Woerdense Verlaat, Meije, Zwammerdam, and Nieuwkoop, and for any visitors I think this will have to be a mandatory ride. Tailwind the whole way home, and even though it's fall, there were many sections where we happily did around 23. A strong wind at your back and nice road conditions can give you the feeling you're quite the rider, and there were several (short) sections where we succumbed to that feeling and took the speed up close to 30. I'm feeling all that now, but having this feeling (and needing a nap half-way through the Sunday afternoon) is a great privilege. Almost a metric century, almost 20 average.

The Always Present Horner

This year's Tour of Lombardy was a pretty moderate affair, in part because of the lack of stars at the starting line, in part because I'm sure for many riders it has been a long season. But it was very nice to see Chris Horner back in a European race again. As always, he was there to race. Whether he expected to contend for the win I'm not sure (he may have been trying to set things up for his teammate Brajkovic), but he did make a gutsy move on the penultimate climb, one only Cunego and one other rider was able to follow. And he was still in the front lines on the final climb. By that time, the only guy in the field I've ever been in a race with, Mike Friedman of Pittsburgh, had probably already abandoned.

Doping, Cycling, and Germany

If there's one thing we've learned about professional cycling in the past year(s) is that if a rider's performance seems to good to be true, it probably is. Think of Basso in the 2006 Giro; or Vinokourov's "gritty" victories in last year's Tour; or the cases of especially Ricco and Schumacher this year. Kohl, I guess, too, although I personally didn't immediately suspect him last summer. Too good to be true on the face of it also means: never having a bad day, which reminds me of another prime example: Emanuelle Sella in this year's Giro, especially these back-to-back stage wins in the mountains. All these guys, and others have been caught, although I'm sure there remain others who still get away with it, in part because this will always remain a game of catch up between cheaters and inspectors. There will always be new means to boost performance illegally, and there will always be people willing to try them. But there's no question that cycling is working very hard at making it difficult and potentially very costly to cheat (much harder than many other disciplines). Here's a good source to keep up with the latest on all this (not that I always do). In fact, the tolerance for any infractions has become so limited, that genuinely honest mistakes now also tend to be punished very harshly. What's the name again of the Belgian rider earlier this year who got banned because of a stupid mistake by his doctor or soigneur? I think that's been reversed recently, as it should have been, because in a sport where so much is asked of the body so frequently athletes will always need to rely on doctors and pharmaceuticals just to stay healthy enough to show up for work. (Given the various interests at stake, not showing up for "work" is often highly undesirable, although it should probably be made a little easier at times for a rider just to sit something out, as some of the multi-day races should also be made just a little easier to handle in terms of distance and maybe total number of days). The bottom line is that cycling is doing a lot to make things more honest and transparent. But it doesn't get enough credit, certainly in comparison to other sports. Take the recent developments in Germany, where the main tv organizations now won't televise next year's Tour de France; where the Stuttgart Six-Day track event has just been canceled; and where they now won't have their national tour, the Tour of Germany, next year either. This is all because the sport has lost credibility in the eyes of many Germans, and down with it has gone sponsor interest. Germany is an exceptional case, perhaps because it doesn't really have a long, deeply-rooted cycling tradition. There have been many good German cyclists, but the sport didn't really acquire a mass audience until the 1990s when Jan Ulrich began his tragic rise. It's hard in Germany to put cheating (always has been, always will be part of the sport) in its proper, wider context. Of course, the English-speaking world hasn't really been part of the hard core of the world of (road) cycling either (France, Italy, Belgium--maybe Spain and the Netherlands), but there sponsors seem to view the glass as half-full: much concern about doping, but much support for new anti-doping policies. I'm sure both the German critics and the Anglo-Saxon optimists see themselves as realists. For now, I'm going to side with the latter. With more than 24 hours to go, I'm already excited about watching the Tour of Lombardy tomorrow afternoon.

The Problem with Ayers

Thomas Frank has a characteristically forceful and well-reasoned column in today's Wall Street Journal on his friend Bill Ayers, of Weathermen fame. It is a good piece, and Frank succeeds in adding nuance to the Ayers picture, certainly the one we've been getting recently via campaign rhetoric. There's one weak passage, however, which points to the reason why Ayers still poses problems, also for Obama:

I do not defend the things Mr. Ayers did in his Weatherman days. Nor will I quibble with those who find Mr. Ayers wanting in contrition. His 2001 memoir is shot through with regret, but it lacks the abject style our culture prefers.

It's a weak passage, because the rest of the piece really ignores the issue of contrition, to the point of implying that it's pretty much irrelevant. Without expecting what Frank calls "the abject style"of contrition people today may expect from former terrorists, would it have been terribly difficult for Ayers simply to come out and say that it was plain wrong to bomb all these sites in the 1970s? And if so, why? It clearly was difficult for Ayers, to put it mildly, because in 2001 (before 9/11, not on that day) he said that he had no regrets, that the Weather Underground should have planted more bombs. I have no reason to question the multiple accounts of all the good works Ayers has undertaken recently. But especially for such an upstanding citizen, why no clear repudiation of the bombs? Frank is right, the Republicans have exploited the Ayers connection in a "vile" manner. But this lack of a clear repudiation of the bombings continues to be a problem; also, whether he likes it or not, for Obama.