Thursday, January 1, 2009

No Credible Defense Against a Soviet Attack--2

I've skimmed the British documents, and it's interesting to see how upset Prime-Minister Callahan was about the "thin" British home island defenses against a Soviet attack. The problem is (and the internal discussion acknowledges part of this) that the imagined Soviet attack was a worst-case scenario, and that due to NATO's article 5 Britain would never have had to defend itself alone. Callahan may have overreacted. Interesting is also that there's no sustained analysis in these papers of how a Soviet attack might proceed (the extent to which sometimes impressive Soviet capabilities on paper would be effective in practice), and what role the U.K. would play in a Soviet plan of attack on the West. Of course, if you're in a position of responsibility, you'd better think of the worst-case scenario--or, in our post-9/11 era, try to imagine the unimaginable. Still, looking back knowing where the Soviet Union was headed (remember old Brezhnev and his colleagues Andropov and Chernenko, Tichonov, Ustinov?), the seriousness with which British leaders apparently considered the possibility of an overwhelming Soviet attack strikes as a bit awkward. After all, the Warsaw Pact, just like NATO, had lots of contingency plans, but neither side seems to have thought seriously about initiating a war of conquest against the other side. Everything becomes a lot less awkward, however, if you consider the most likely way a big war could have started during the Cold War, namely by accident. We came pretty close a few times, for example in 1962 (Cuban Missile Crisis) and maybe 1983.

2 comments:

Buzzwindrip said...

I never heard of Able Archer 83 before. If it was newsworthy at the time, it was lost to me, as I was more interested in the local club scene than world or national events. My cousin Kurt would have been in Germany at the time; he was a West Point grad and combat engineer, who, I have heard through the family grapevine, worked on logistics for those contingency plans. I have never asked him personally about his role there; I will have to ask him about that next time we chat.

Ruud van Dijk said...

it was also the time period: 1983 was when Reagan called the Soviet Union an "evil empire" (in public), when he announced SDI, and when the U.S. invaded Grenada; the Soviet leadership, meanwhile, was aging, sickly, and out of touch, and it was paranoid about Reagan's intentions--that may be why Soviet fighters shot down the Korean airliner, KAL 007, in september; the large NATO Able Archer exercise later that fall involved the top policy making level (which was unusual) apparently causing the Kremlin to believe that this might be for real (although the brief analysis I link to questions this)