Riding The Weather

That's how Danny Chew, he of the Dirty Dozen en RAAM, used to describe his approach to riding on the road in Pittsburgh in the winter. It's a simple approach, essentially meaning that any decent day you get, you try to ride, because between November and April, there will be plenty indecent ones. Decent as in: no snow or ice, and temperatures above your personal tolerance level. Since we got back from Rome (where we had coffee outside, in the sun) a little over two weeks ago, I've had to use the same approach here in Holland. It had gotten cold while we were gone, and the first day back riding to Amsterdam, I got confirmation when I saw a cat walk across the ice outside of Weesp. Having done nothing on the trip for five days straight, I was determined to get a full week of riding to the city, even if it would be a sub-freezing one. In Milwaukee, I lowered my personal threshold to about 10 Fahrenheit (-12 Celsius), so I'd get through a little bit of Dutch frost. The second morning was cold and clear, and just like a few weeks earlier, I saw the sun rise early in the ride. This time, however, it looked more like a radioactive blood orange, which I'm sure had to do with the cold air. The third day was notable too, because as I was plodding my way across the railroad bridge outside of Weesp I got passed by a very sharp looking dude on a Fort cross bike. There was no way I was going to try to get on his wheel, and not just because on the way in I tend to take it easy. This looked like a guy who was in the middle of cross season. My streak ended on that third day, because on Thursday it snowed, the beginning of a week with more snow and generally sketchy conditions on the roads. I rode the weather for as long as I could--and I got back into it as soon as it was possible again, last weekend. I had another three-day streak that may well prove to be the conclusion to my riding in 2009. Saturday a Lage Vuursche coffee ride on the mountain bike, as it was still slick here and there. In one turn, in Hollandse Rading, the fat tires kept me upright where the skinny tires might have been inadequate. The next day, a regular winter Sunday ride, was a few degrees above freezing, and I got a real ride (= no coffee stop) because my Sunday guys, the ones who insist on riding through the woods this time of year, never made it. One of them took a hard fall on the icy trails, and they had to cut their ride short. So much for riding the tractor this time of year. After learning the news, I just continued my loop, riding 38 winter miles on just one banana. This was after a big dinner the night before--don't try this on snack food or you'll bonk horribly (to add another Danny term). Monday was sunny, calm, and again above freezing. It's the holidays, so no reason to pass up an opportunity like that. I did the hooky loop again, averaging 18.5. December 31 is tomorrow, so perhaps I can add a few more miles to the annual mileage I'll be calculating in a little less than 24 hours. Don't touch that dial!

Obama's First Year: The World As It Is

It's been busy since the trip to Rome, and there has been snow, which has kept me off the bike and is making me cranky. But I did do an-op ed for the holiday editions of the GPD newspapers over the weekend, and I just saw that one paper has picked it up already. It's an evaluation of Obama's first year in office and addresses the criticisms from the right and left by arguing that given the challenges a year ago, he's done pretty well. Pretty well would already apply if all he had done was avoid big blunders or disasters, but I argue the president has done better. Perhaps more important, through his thoughtful, deliberate approach to the challenges he has faced, we can have some confidence that things will continue to be handled in a serious and pragmatic manner. This is quite a bit to hope for (in case you're disappointed now). Without the necessary votes in Congress, or a certain convergence of your plans with the interests of powerful, independently acting nations such as Russia and China (or Brazil, or India), not much is going to get done. So stop the timidity talk. It's called pragmatism, and it's a requirement for an American president like rarely before. Anyway, read all about it (in Dutch). I actually managed to bring cycling into the piece, by quoting my old cycling mentor and former legitimate amateur racer, Thijs, who casually used to say: "yes, go try do it" whenever you'd criticize the performance of one or other cyclist on tv.

My Own Private Hooky Ride

It was calm, it was sunny, and it was not too cold. So even though I have stuff to do, I just had to take advantage, also because I'll be on the road for the next five days with no opportunity to ride or do much of anything else. So at 2:30 I sneaked out for a quick, hour and ten minute, 21 mile loop by way of Vreeland, Loenersloot, Baambrugge, Abcoude, and Weesp. It's all pretty, but you've got to love the little river Gein. All small ring, but still 18.3 average, which actually was a bit too fast given that I had just skated yesterday. It's good to ride after putting all that pressure on the legs, but it's important to be spinning. I was spinning today (39x15), but maybe just a little too fast. Must have been the weather. On the way into town I chased down my old neighbor Sabina, a year-round commuter, who had been skating this afternoon. She was riding the 10 miles home from the Amsterdam speed skating oval, because she knows the right way to enjoy yourself and stay in shape.

Surging in Afghanistan

The New York Times reports on how President Obama came to his decision to send the extra troops in support of (a modified version of) General McChrystal's new strategy. Early on, the president came to the conclusion that the consequences of failure in the region are unacceptable. After that, it was primarily about finding an approach that has a chance to work in a reasonably short period of time so that the Western role in the country, at least the leading part of it, can be temporary. We're looking to turn things around in Afghanistan, a little like we helped turn things around in Iraq after 2006, so that there will be a chance for a more favorable development--for ourselves and for the people there. The former won't happen without the latter. That's all we can do, really: give ourselves and the people there a chance. There are too many uncertain factors, too much burdensome history in both places, to use words like "winning," or "resolution." At the same time, Iraq since 2006 has shown that apparently unstoppable downward slides also can be halted and partly reversed. What this NYT article is lacking is significant detail on how the president and his advisers defined the consequences of failure (presumably the result of a decision now to pull out of Afghanistan)--which doesn't mean that such a definition, such a discussion doesn't exist in the White House (or that the Times didn't do an article on this earlier). When I try to imagine the possible consequences of taking the advice of the many proponents of giving up on Afghanistan, I don't feel reassured at all that a withdrawal now would not make things worse for everyone except the Taliban and Al Qaeda.

Elaboration: What I forgot to highlight from the Times article is how it reports on Obama's dismay about the cost of all this: human and financial, and how conscious everyone around the table was of earlier cases of "escalating" a foreign war (Vietnam under Johnson being the classic case). Anyone who knows anything about, for example, the Vietnam case will understand how this is different, and how the term "escalation" is hardly appropriate here. Maybe I'll elaborate more on this last point later. In the meantime, the Times piece is worth reading in its entirety.

First Salt of the Season

They put it on the bridges in Weesp, this morning. It had been clear last night, and I had been looking at the almost (one day short) full moon the whole way home from Amsterdam. When I got on my way today around 8am, it was mostly cloudy, and it didn't feel that cold. But better safe than sorry. Today was the first anniversary of my two falls due to iced-over bridges in downtown Amsterdam. It's that time of year. By now, I've pulled out all the winter gear, except for the balaclava. Hasn't been cold enough for that one. But I was happy this week to be wearing the thick tights and to have my gloves. This morning, looking over my shoulder as I was reaching the city, I could see the sun come up over some clouds just above the horizon, which was pretty; but when it was time to go home there was enough moisture in the air to make me take off my glasses. Wet weather, but not rain. In three weeks, the days will be getting longer again--not than today, but than December 21. It's something. Oh, and the whole way home I was thinking of how nice it would be to be able to bite into a big, juicy Qdoba burrito. No such luck in Holland, although rumor has it Chipotle is planning to expand into Europe. It would be nice to have that comfort food available, especially this time of year.

A Pacific President for a Pacific Century?

That could have been the title for my op-ed this week in papers of the GPD syndicate. Obama has called himself America's first Pacific president, and much of what goes on in the world in the coming decades will be determined by what the U.S. and China do, and how much of it they manage to do together. Instead, however, we came up with something about Obama keeping alive America's China dreams. The idea was for a historical perspective on the U.S.-China relationship, so I talk about U.S. expectations with regard to China since the "Open Door" notes around 1900. Meanwhile the future of America's 20th century China expectations is here, and it's not clear if Americans are happy about the way things have come out. China has become quite powerful (really the second of only two powers with a genuinely global foreign policy) whereas the U.S. has lost ground. The piece naturally ends with President Obama's recent visit. Given his own troubles and China's ascent, he was wise to play it cautiously. The Chinese leadership has its hands full at home, not least because it's a dictatorship. Part of America's expectations of China has been that the country would become more like the U.S.; in the realm of basic freedoms, that continues to be an aspiration of a lot of Chinese. Hence our title: America can indeed keep its China dreams alive; hence also the wisdom of Obama's caution, because there is little that would anger the Beijing dictators more than by being challenged politically at home by a foreing power like the U.S. And an angry China is something the U.S. can afford less than ever before. Read all about it, in Dutch, in today's Eindhovens Dagblad.

November Morning Sun?

I know there is such a thing as a harvest moon, the way the full moon looks at the end of the summer or early in the fall. When I lived in New Mexico I fully became aware of that one night when I rode home to White Rock, the suburb without a city, from my job at the lab in Los Alamos. I was headed east on Pajarito Rd when just before diving down the one-mile hill that's part of it (and where I once saw 57 m/h indicated on my computer--still my all-time speed record) I looked up to see this huge, bright yellow moon climb out from behind the Sangre de Christo mountains on the other side of the wide, Rio Grande valley. It was a stunning sight, one I looked for every time there was a full moon the remainder of my year there, but in vain. I was on the same bike yesterday morning as on that Friday evening in October 1994--my 1992 yellow Trek 2300: carbon for the main triangle, aluminum front and rear forks, still going strong--when I had a somewhat similar experience, but this time with the rising sun. It had been a wet and windy week. Wednesday it got so wild that even though I had braved the wind in the morning, I didn't feel like dealing with an even stronger wind on the way home, also because in the course of the day it had started to rain. Plus I would have had to get through it all after dark. Instead, I walked to the train, and came back to the city the next day using public transportation also. Thursday was a little calmer, and by the end of the day it had started to clear. Friday morning was plain bright, and it was light well before the sun had come up. So I wasn't thinking of the sun, the way I often do on a clear morning, probably also because there was no orange glow where I normally look for it leaving town. But approaching my turn-off onto the Diemen-Bussum highway, about 2.5 miles into my ride I just happened to glance over to the east, in part because that's where I was about to go. And there it was: a gigantic pinkish sun, only about one-fifth above the tree line between the Ankeveense plassen and the Ankeveense molen. I can't remember ever seeing the sun this wide, or this pink. There were only a few minutes before my route headed west again, along the Vecht toward Weesp. But in the meantime I was able to see it rise almost fully above the horizon, and it was a sight to behold. Partly to get another look I continued along the Vecht toward Muiden past Weesp, because on that section I'd have some easy glances eastward again. By that time, about ten minutes later, the sun was well clear above the horizon and quite a bit smaller, but it was still fairly easy to look at--not very bright at all, in spite of the clear morning. It's not something you expect to see, this time of year in Holland. But I did, and so it was a good week on the bike after all.

Agonizing over Aghanistan

Two weeks back I did an op-ed arguing that it's inconceivable that the U.S. will not play a central role in Afghanistan and next-door Pakistan in the coming years. It was in response to reports from Washington that quite a few people (also in the military) were getting impatient with the president's decisionmaking process which has been ongoing since word leaked last September (I think it was) of General McChrystal's recommendation that in order to pursue a new strategy the U.S. send up to 40,000 extra troops. And the president still hasn't made a decision. In fact, last week he held what was reported to be his eight major session with his national security team on the issue, where originally just a handful were planned. From the reports on it, one could conclude that the president is particularly concerned about having a viable exit strategy, or even that ultimately the strategy will be an exit strategy (with the U.S. mostly handing things over to whatever Afghan partners within a few years). The meeting came on the heels of word that the U.S. ambassador in Kabul does not believe there's any point in sending more troops until the Karzai government cleans up its act. This is indeed a vital point, although I continue to wonder whether the Obama team considers bypassing the man and his cronies to be an option--along the lines of how in Iraq after 2006 we worked with local groups to get a handle on the Sunni insurgency and Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia. In any case, it's obvious that Obama is taking this issue more than a little seriously--that he's not "dithering," in other words--not least because U.S. and other soldiers (along with Afghan soldiers and civilians) will continue to be killed, regardless of which way he decides. That he's very aware of this aspect of the matter (just one of many, mind you, although perhaps the most burdening) you can see in a story on his visit to Arlington National Cemetery last week. Apparently, the photo at the beginning here was taken that day.

Down and Up in Early November

What's different about November is that it's really fall, as in: wind, rain, and low temperatures. I had a rough time commuting last week thanks to these conditions combining a lot of the time. I got rained on twice (fortunately both days on the way home), had to battle gusty winds, and really needed the winter shoes, the jacket, and my gloves--not to mention my lights at the end of the day. I remember writing back in April and May how the commutes were getting so easy that they hardly felt like the real thing any more. Well, this past week I met the real thing again and I'm still adjusting psychologically. I'm still seeing a few other backpack-racing bike-commuters, but sightings are getting to be few and far between. Riding to work is going to be a long, hard slog on most days. Not always, as became clear this morning, on the Sunday ride. The weather had begun to calm down late yesterday afternoon, and last night was calm, clear, and cool. There was some fog around this morning, but in a lot of places the skies were blue. My Whisper Power group has switched to mountain bikes, but I'm dissenting and sticking to the (winter) road bike. It's not that I hate dirt riding so much (although I'd be perfectly happy never to mess with it), it's more that the route follows paths where you run into a lot of (dog) walkers, runners, and such. Meanwhile, we're rumbling through at a speed that's considerably higher than what the other people are doing, and this makes for interactions that from the walkers' side are grudgingly polite at best, and which often cross over into plain resentment and sometimes willful obstruction. Fast cyclists, road or dirt, are not popular in this country, and one can see why. In many places there just isn't enough room. Some racing types nonetheless act as if they're in the middle of some kind of very important race. But even if you're well-behaved you can easily scare people. Yesterday I read about a conflict over a planned bike path outside of Haarlem, where the walker/hiking community objects for exactly these reasons: cyclists ruin it for the rest of us in these pretty areas. It's the same on the road on nice weekend afternoons: you really can't expect to go for a careless, fast training ride at those times--too many other people on the bike paths and roads. On those days, it's best to be done with your ride by 11am or so. It's not that by riding the road bike where my friends take to the trails that I think I can fix this, or even that I think cyclists do not belong on these trails. As one of the members of the group said during our coffee stop (where I did meet up with the rest): we're mostly on bike paths, so we should not feel guilty or anything. It's that I just don't need this tension when I'm supposed to be enjoying myself, supposed to be riding around relatively carelessly. So I rode the biggest part of today's ride by myself, roughly tracing the off-road route on the perimeter on paved roads. It certainly was a good day for a road ride, in spite of the 2 degrees Celsius I saw indicated somewhere. Let's hope these kinds of days come around from time to time during the week also, because I'm not in the true hard-man mindset yet.

What's Nice About October

For cyclists who like summer, not seasons, September is a bad month. First you hang on to summer for dear life, but it slips away gradually but surely. You may be able to put off wearing tights, but it's rarely warm any more, just adequate. Certainly on top you have to start messing with multiple layers again. The daylight at the end of the day especially gets ever shorter, and the anxiety goes up: in a few weeks it will be fall and all hell will have broken loose: rain, wind, cold, dark--and snow and ice won't be far behind. But then October comes, and even though there are those wet, windy days, it really can be quite nice still also. Yesterday and today we had temperatures close to 60 (15 celsius), and it was calm and only partly cloudy. I could not take advantage yesterday, but this morning I had an absolutely lovely commute. Nothing remarkable happened, just the realization that while it's really fall now, almost November even, and even though I was wearing tights and two long-sleeve jerseys on top, the riding was easy, smooth even. It helped that I was passing a major traffic jam on the freeway leading to Amsterdam, but the main thing was the calm weather. Of course I took the long way in (18 as opposed to 16 miles)--in these circumstances it hardly took any extra time. There will be plenty of other days between now and next May, but they can't take today away from me.

Figuring Out Afghanistan

The president has stated that there's little point in deepening the U.S. commitment to Afghanistan while it remains unclear whether there will be a credible local partner. At the risk of defending once more a president many people would like to see bomb something other than the moon, that is a significant step. There will now be a second round to the Afghan presidential election, on November 7, although rumors that there may be a power-sharing deal between president Karzai and challenger Abdullah also persist. We'll have to see how this goes, but at least the fatally flawed first election round will not directly lead to a new Karzai term. It is still questionable if the West should even try to address the Afghan political situation through a central government, and last week there was a forceful, though not entirely persuasive, case that the presence of Western troops (regardless of what they do, or do not do) fuels Taliban terrorism. But once again I like Roger Cohen's take, today, who argues that even though the West has been in the country for eight years, a comprehensive approach to the Taliban-Al Qaeda challenge has only just begun, and that what's needed most now (not next month) is a clear statement from the president of U.S. "endurance" there. Early last spring, the new administration did announce a new regional strategy which it called "AfPak," because one can't really separate the predicaments of Afghanistan and Pakistan. It would certainly not help matters in Pakistan if the Taliban, following a U.S. withdrawal, took control of Afghanistan, again, and it would not help Western interests either. It would be weird if, after having put his own man, General McChrystal, in charge earlier this year, the president would now turn down his recommendation for a better counterinsurgency strategy. In a way, NATO allies like the Netherlands (in spite of the government's efforts to stave this off) have done just that: they're out of there, regardless of what Washington decides, regardless of what they're leaving behind, regardless of what will happen to the people who have come to depend on NATO protection. But I think the president is smarter and tougher than that. I think he'll give General McChrystal most of the things he needs. I just hope that together, the president and the general be utterly pragmatic. If a central government, if national institutions can be made to work effectively and with credibility--then, fine. But otherwise, we should help local people protect themselves, reconcile with outsiders where possible, and run their own lives.

Gloves

I needed them, this morning. There was ice on the roofs of the bike sheds in our neighborhood, and the forecast had warned of maybe minus 3 degrees Celsius locally. Yesterday morning had been cool too. I had been rubbing my hands while riding, thinking that gloves would not be out of place. So today I grabbed a pair walking out the door. I also wore three long-sleeved layers on top, and my thickish, woolen Cannondale socks. And I was fine, though not warm the first half hour (and my toes were a little cold at the end of the ride). Getting the gloves out pretty much completes the transition to fall, which doesn't mean that it's all bad. The last three morning commutes, for example, have all been cool, crisp, and sunny affairs. Both yesterday and today I could see the sun climb out from behind our lake, the Spiegelplas, and the Ankeveense Plassen. A big, orange ball for about fifteen minutes before you can't look at it without blinding yourself. It's also the time when the summer bike commuters are disappearing, either because they don't like the cooler weather or because they don't like messing with lights. There's another step I'll have to take soon: clipping on the headlight and flashers. Then, it might as well be winter.

Update: It turned into a near-symmetrical riding day, because on the way home (no gloves) as I rode into our town, the sun had turned into a big, orange ball again, only now it was about to go down behind the Western horizon. Or rather, the Southwestern horizon--no longer the direction of Abcoude, but more Baambrugge, maybe even Loenersloot. The days are getting short. The only reason it wasn't dark yet at seven was that it was a virtually cloudless sky.

The Nobel Peace Prize Matters ...

I agree with a lot of the reactions to yesterday's news: premature (in his response, the recipient himself implied this too), the third Non-Bush Prize, at least, in less than a decade, a joke that devalues the tradition. A lot of fuss because a bunch of Norwegian politicians happen to sit on a large endowment and like to influence international politics with it. But it occurred to me that the fact that just about everyone, in every part of the world, felt the urge to comment (often quite vehemently) on this award that shows that the Nobel Peace Prize really is a kind of universal award, the property, if you like, of all of us. If people didn't see it that way, didn't think they had a stake in it, they would not respond in this way. The award's long tradition, and its many distinguished winners, has played a big role in this, of course. The committee has made interesting choices in recent years. On the whole, however, I wonder if there hasn't been too much Norwegianism. An eagerness to lead at the expense of being satisfied with sticking to more traditional choices. An eagerness also to try to, shall we say, encourage the United States to be more like the rest of civilization (i.e. Western Europe)? Americans will resist those calls, because they're not, and never will be, West European social democrats. Western Europe's reach in other parts of the world will remain equally limited. So let me correct myself: the Nobel Peace Prize matters, but mostly to Norway, the EU, and UN diplomats and bureaucrats; it is the property of a certain international community, those who subscribe to an internationalist, semi-collectivist, developmental ethos. They're influential, not just because of the Nobel Peace Prize, and they do have some good ideas. But in the grand scheme of things, they're probably a minority. And it remains to be seen to what extent the latest American winner of their award is going to conform to their way of seeing the world. He is, after all, the president of the United States.

Rain

It had to happen, because I can't really remember the last time I really got rained on (except for that late summer coffee ride) on a commute or a training ride. (Can I still call those non-commutes "training rides" now that I never go to a race any more? What would I be training for, exactly?). Last summer, after getting to Holland from Milwaukee, I got the nice bike dirty more than once when the weather was still supposed to be nice. This summer, certainly by late September, however, we began seeing news reports about drought conditions in parts of this swamp-like country. It actually was not coming down when I left the house a little before eight this morning, though the roads were plenty wet. Before I started getting it from above, I had already gotten a little wet (one shoe) from several large puddles I was forced to ride through. Two-thirds of the way the real rain started, and by the time I got to work I was plain wet. The heat hasn't been turned on yet in my building, so at the end of the afternoon I had to put the still damp stuff back on. The socks were the worst, but the conditions outside a pleasant surprise. It didn't really rain at all as I rode out of Amsterdam, and the rest of the way all I had to deal with was a light drizzle. I had checked the radar and hurried over to my bike, because it was clear that at the very end of the day some real rain would be moving through. I was able to watch that from inside the house. Other reason why this wasn't the real thing yet: it was sixties, for crying out loud. That's about ten degrees away from warm rain, the kind it's a privilege and a joy to ride in.

That Unresolved Afghan Election Mess

I have been wondering when he would give his side of things, and the other day American Peter Galbraith (deputy special UN representative in Afghanistan until he got fired last month because he called the fraudulent elections by their full name) did so in the Washington Post. A key passage:

Afghanistan's presidential election, held Aug. 20, should have been a milestone in the country's transition from 30 years of war to stability and democracy. Instead, it was just the opposite. As many as 30 percent of Karzai's votes were fraudulent, and lesser fraud was committed on behalf of other candidates. In several provinces, including Kandahar, four to 10 times as many votes were recorded as voters actually cast. The fraud has handed the Taliban its greatest strategic victory in eight years of fighting the United States and its Afghan partners.

And yet, the UN seems to want to hand President Karzai his victory, and the U.S. may be leaning that way too. His government is corrupt, inept, and disliked by a growing number of people in the country. Should we stick with Karzai; and what would be alternatives?

I recently did a lecture on the early years of South Vietnam, particularly the relationship between the U.S. and South Vietnamese leader Ngo Dinh Diem, and I have to say that the West's problems with Karzai look eerily similar. For one thing, President Obama has called Afghanistan a "war of necessity"--just like Eisenhower believed South Vietnam was a vital U.S. interest. Also just like "Vietnam" wasn't really about that country, it's not about Afghanistan itself today. We're trying to create a viable government there, able to stand on its own feet, able, especially, to keep the enemy at bay, because of a greater cause: the war on Al Qaeda and similar groups. And maybe Karzai is just like Diem: an authentic Afghan leader genuinely hostile to the Taliban and Al Qaeda but also contemptuous of ignorant Westerners trying to impose their vision for his country's future. In that case, working through Karzai really isn't going to work: in addition to being corrupt and ineffective, he would also reject genuine collaboration. The big problem in Vietnam, also for Kennedy, was that there did not seem to be an alternative for Diem, even though Diem himself turned out to be a failure. The South Vietnamese state needed to be built up because South Vietnam was designated a vital domino in the Cold War. In hindsight, however, the flaw seems to have been this designation of (South) Vietnam as a vital battlefield in the global Cold War.

Is there an alternative today for Karzai? Do we have to let him "win" this sham of an election? The answer may have to come from two additional questions: how vital is Afghanistan really to our current transnational concern (internationally operating, fanatically anti-Western terror groups); how vital is it to build a cohesive Afghan state under an effective central government? I'm not prepared yet to argue that we should just let Karzai fend for himself if he wants to rule the country in his own way--that we should basically give up on Afghanistan the country and instead focus on fighting Al Qaeda and similar groups directly. I think the cure there might be much worse ultimately than the remedy, because it might well lead to a re-run of events of the 1990s after the departure of the Soviets from Afghanistan: civil war, Taliban rule, Al Qaeda sancturary. Plus, having been there for almost eight years now, the West owes the people of Afghanistan.

I'm wondering if there might not be a middle way, namely working with local, tribal authorities, few of whom are looking forward to a return of Taliban rule. Bypass the central government, at least until it becomes credible, and direct resources to the regional and local level. One way in which Karzai (or whoever would succeed him) could become credible is to run an honest election and operate an effective, transparent government. It will be a while before that happens. Until then, we'll have to think of something else. President Obama, of course, is in the middle of his second big re-evaluation of Afghanistan policy in less than a year. I haven't seen many indications of where he's leaning with regard to Karzai and the current election mess, but I can't imagine that he and his advisers aren't thinking very hard about alternatives to especially the current political approach to that country. As we've learned in Vietnam, no military effort is going to mean very much in the longer run without a viable political strategy.

Fall's Really Here

How do I know? First day in tights, that's how. It was only supposed to be between 12 and 15 Celsius (50s) today, and I had to be on the road by 8 am. Just getting over a cold, it did not seem necessary to push it. Also wore three layers on top, two with long sleeves, one turtle necked. And riding out I was glad I had put it all on. It's nothing to be particularly mournful about, of course. We've had a very decent spring, summer, and September, and it's not as if winter has suddenly arrived. Plus, there may be no reason any more to take the clippers to the legs--a big time and hassle saver. Also got rained on a little on the way home, a very thin drizzle. To mark the occasion we decided to turn on the heat for the first time since May or so.

Give Obama More Time ...

... the title above my op-ed as it appears today in de Gelderlander (in Dutch). The Washington Post's Richard Cohen takes another position, but then there's also the New York Times's Cohen, Roger. As a column, Richard Cohen's piece is quite good; but as an analysis/policy recommendation, I like Roger Cohen's much better. For one thing, he knows something about Iran, having spent a good deal of time there recently.

No Obama Sell-Out

This is what I wrote in an op-ed for the GPD papers (Netherlands), late last week. I haven't seen the piece on-line anywhere yet, but when it does turn up somewhere, I'll link to it. The thing is, he's trying to institute significant change, and that takes time, especially because an American president today is much less powerful than his prominence in the news would suggest. There is America's reduced financial prowess, there's obstruction from great powers such as China and Russia, there's domestic pressures (protectionism!), and there are those enemies of the U.S.--unpredictable, and in most cases irreconcilable to any kind of international order. But the critics are mostly wrong (or premature): implied in the criticisms from the right is that a foreign policy more akin to that of George W. Bush would be better. But which Bush foreign policy do they mean? The unilateralism of the first term? What did that get us, exactly? Or the milder version of Bush's second term? The latter was certainly moving in the direction of what Obama is trying to do now. Yes, the president did drop his predecessor's missile-defense plans for Eastern and Central Europe--but he hasn't dropped missile defense at all. In a way, charges that he is too soft can't be rebutted, because his approach so far does in many areas emphasize talking instead of bombing. But what about all the dead Taliban and Al Qaeda commanders in Somalia, Afghanistan, and Pakistan? What about his increase in troop levels in Afghanistan during the first months in office? Let's not forget that we're still only eight months into this presidency. There is no telling what the administration might do if the current approach fails to produce the anticipated results in certain cases. But let's not forget either that on almost every tough foreign policy problem today--North Korea, Iran, Israel v. Palestinians--the more muscular alternatives out there look very unappetizing.

Better Commute

Another calm, mild fall day, perfect to ride home the long way (by way of IJburg and Muiden, instead of Weesp--this adds two miles). Had the wind at my back on the little climb up the Nescio bridge, and on the way down I put it in the big ring. With my new chain and cassette, I can use 53x19 without anything rubbing (on the old set-up, only the 17 and bigger would work well). I kept it there all the way into Muiden, doing probably around 20, but as I entered it someone passed me. Yes, another good rider, on a nice bike again. I got on his wheel as we rode through this little city slowly, and I stayed there as he accelerated leaving town. There, we passed another racing-bike-little-back-pack-commuter, but he did not get on the train. My guy didn't try to drop me, which given the nice, straighth and smooth bike path we were on might have been tough. But he did make me work harder than I do on my own on this bike. At the turn-off (Keverdijk) I thanked him for the ride, but he happened to go my way, so I sat on his wheel for two more miles. Then, it turned out he was also going to Nederhorst den Berg, my town. He lives on the outskirts, and I didn't get his name, but we did chat a little at the end. He's about to stop riding to work for the season and will switch to speedskating. He's in the local club. I've met others who are members, so maybe that should be my club on the ice too. I do need a club to make sure I get to the ice at least once a week.

Obama Snub to the Poles and Czechs?

They're changing the missile-defense plans in Washington, and the Wall Street Journal doesn't like it one bit. I'm not sure if I agree with the wider implications the paper draws. More later.

My Commuter Excuses For Not Going Fast

They came in handy today, because on the way home I got dropped plain and simple by a fellow commuter. The excuses I'm talking about are my buttery 1992 carbon Trek 2300 frame, and my 28-wide bullet-proof tires. Other excuses I've gotten rid of one by one. The guy passed me just outside of Amsterdam, near the Nieuwe Diep, I got on his wheel, and together we continued South along the Amsterdam Rijnkanaal. We passed a guy out on a training ride, but he did not get on the train. I was on the wheel for about two miles, working, but not suffering, when we had to go through the little chicane after the river Diem. I dropped back to leave a little room, because you can't really see what's coming from the other side there, but my lead man powered through it so that I came out of the chicane about twenty meters back. I closed the gap, with some difficulty, but the guy had really decided to increase the pressure, and suddenly I was on the limit, a feeling I haven't experienced much on the bike this year. I didn't stay there for very long. It was hard, the legs had not quite recovered from the Sunday ride, and I was beginning to taste again the fig I had put in my mouth when I left work, about six miles back. And then there were the two bike-related excuses. I let him go. He didn't get too far ahead, because up and over the Amsterdam Rijnkanaal bridge, and into and through the city of Weesp I continued to see him ahead of me, the last time as I was entering the Hoogstraat and he was just crossing the bridge across the Vecht river there. He may have been stronger. He certainly looked very good on the bike (a much more recent Trek model with skinny tires), and he had shaved legs (as well as a smaller backpack). But I'm sure that if this had been last week and I had been on the Klein instead, I would have stayed on his wheel happily, maybe even traded a pull or two with him. As it was, he made me go through the kind of experience--the point where you decide to be dropped--I've only experienced behind cars and mopeds this year.

Louis Rosen, R.I.P.

Earlier this month, nuclear scientist Louis Rosen died at the age of 91 in Albuquerque, NM. I knew him a little bit in the mid-1990s during my time at Los Alamos National Laboratory. I was a research assistant at the Center for National Security Studies (dissolved by the lab's leadership immediately following the Gingrich revolution in late 1994), where Rosen was an associate at the time. At CNSS he did policy-related work, but he was also still involved with the lab project that was his primary accomplishment: the huge atom smasher built during the 1960s right along the main access road to the lab, the so-called "truck route." I once interviewed him at his office there for a newspaper piece I was doing on the lab in the post-Cold War era. One of the things Rosen stood out for during my time at the lab was that he was one of the few people left who had come to Los Alamos during World War II to be part of the Manhattan Project. I don't remember much of our interview, but I do remember his account of that cross-country trip. If I can find the time, I'll dig out the tape I made of our conversation.

More U.S. "snub" to the Poles

Unlike NRC-Handelsblad commentator Juurd Eijsvoogel the other day, the Economist does not believe Washington acted deliberately when it sent a low-level delegation to the World War II commemorations two weeks ago. In its current issue it says the U.S. "botched" this thing. The magazine does believe U.S. - (East)European ties are less close, but there's no talk of an American plan to "encourage" countries such as Poland to develop a more stable relationship with Russia (other than the administration's desire for a "reset" in its own ties with Moscow). Most of this is about Russia: the U.S. (and many other NATO countries) would like to have a more businesslike relationship with Don Putin, one in which Moscow may be willing at times to help advance Western interests in places such as the Persian Gulf or the Korean peninsula. Poland (and also the Baltic states, for instance) want NATO to prepare itself to resist--militarily, if necessary--Russian efforts to regain a sphere of influence in Eastern Europe. You most certainly won't get the former if you do a lot of the latter, but when you're NATO you're also supposed to be an alliance that works for all of its members. Those members, in turn, should of course try to keep a cool head, even when they're next door to a place like Putin's Russia. So what else is new? Discussion, divisions even, in the NATO alliance? These always get worked out one way or another, don't they?

Plodding v. Glee

A faithful reader from Pittsburgh writes the following:

You write of your commute and your glee at using a somewhat lighter more efficient bike and i just yesterday had exactly the opposite sensation. i showed up at 550 am for a ride with 3 more novice riders. i hadnt really ridden for 5 wks due to whatever mysterious illness had gripped me. I showed up on my ancient mtn bike and spent the 20-25 mile ride trying desperately to hang with these mortals, who lead interesting lives and therefore neglect to put in the required time and effort to rise to the meager level of fitness required of a true pmvc member. I got in a much greater workout than i would have on my road bike as i was carrying at least 10 extra pounds and one always rides harder when faced with the humiliation of being dropped.

So i am thinking of saving the madone for only those rides that require its lightness and perhaps looking to buy a cheap , heavy single speed for my short solo rides within the city , or for use with more recreational riders...

I think we're talking here about the difference between knowing what's good for you (riding the heavier, fender-equipped bike when speed isn't a requirement) and really enjoying a ride ("glee"). I'm afraid that since that last post, two weeks ago, I've become quite partial to glee. A week ago I noticed that the old rear wheel on my commuter (dating back to my days in Pittsburgh in the late 1990s) was out of true. Monday morning before riding to work I quickly tried to fix it, but instead pulled one spoke so tight that it cracked the rim. (I think this rim was ready to die anyway). So for two days I got to ride a really stiff, nice-running bike to Amsterdam: my 2001 aluminum Klein Quantum Race. It's my back-up and winter bike, has a rear fender, and I use 25-wide Gatorskins on it, but if I had to, I would still enter a race on this bike. Yesterday I had my commuter back, with a brand-new rear wheel, and a new cassette and chain. Compared to the way the bike used to run, there was a big change (it pays to replace a chain and cassette from time to time, especially on a year-round commuter!), but compared to the Klein, the 28-wide tires felt as if they were glued to the road, and the 1992 carbon frame felt like butter. For the Klein's sake it's better not to commute on it, because it would take a beating on these rides. And it's probably good for me too, having to work a little harder. It's certainly been nice not to flat even once the whole year thanks to the heavy-duty commuter tires. The problem--I've figured out while writing this--is that most of my riding now comes in the form of these commutes. Most of my riding, in other words, is of the plodding kind. I think that's what I felt yesterday when I got back on the good old Trek. Now I'm not even sure anymore if it's really good for me, physically or mentally.

U.S. "snub" to the Poles--continued

An interesting perspective on this supposed disrespect the Obama administration showed its faithful ally Poland last week, when it sent a low-level delegation to the commemorations of the start of World War II. NRC-Handelsblad commentator Juurd Eijsvoogel today (in Dutch) suggests that there was actually a plan behind Washington's approach, that this was part of a strategy to encourage the Poles (and other East and Central European allies) to find a way to live with big, bad neighbor Russia, instead of primarily relying on the U.S., an ally living far away. It's not that Washington is preparing to sever its ties with the (East) Europeans, but more that the Americans are taking "the next logical step" twenty years after the fall of the Berlin Wall. Presumably he means by this that the U.S. is "normalizing" what during the Cold War had become an abnormally close American relationship with the old continent. That's reminiscent of what Eisenhower and Dulles were hoping to achieve during their first term in office (1953-1957) by way of the ill-fated European Defense Community. Eisenhower and Dulles hoped that the U.S. military involvement (certainly the large U.S. military presence) in Europe could be temporary, that the Europeans could gradually take responsibility again for their own defense (backed, to be sure, by the NATO alliance with the U.S.). That proved to be an illusion. We'll see if Obama and friends will be more successful today. In trying to take this "next logical step," according to Eijsvoogel, they're doing the Poles a service. It's not, he seems to imply, as if the U.S. will maintain its current commitment to Europe's security until the end of days. It opens up an intriguing long-term perspective: America's natural involvement with Europe is really quite distant. The Cold War was an aberration; now that it's over, gradually the U.S. will revert back to a more distant posture. Also given Washington's other headaches in the world today, that's not such a weird proposition. IJsvoogel's conclusions are a bit optimistic: first he says that friend Putin obliged, last week in Gdansk, through his "reassuring" appearance (we'll see about that); second, there's more than a little wishful thinking in the following: "And with all this, an important step forward has been made on the road to a Europe that's really united, free, and secure. With thanks this time to an America that's quiet." Still, it's a column that does what a good column is supposed to do: making you think by way of an original idea.

Late Summer Coffee Ride

There was a need to catch up on a summer of riding separately, and so an out-of-season coffee ride was scheduled for this morning. As I stepped out of the house, it started raining, even though I could see plenty of clear spots around. It took about four miles of drizzle to ride out from under this grey, curtain-like cloud. It probably also got blown off my course a little. So the roads were wet, but it really wasn't bad, actually quite pleasant thanks to the Northwesterly tailwind. 14 degrees Celcius at 9:26 in Loosdrecht. I think I saw the guy with the dog again near the Hilversum airport, and of course the Sukkel butcher shop in Maartensdijk had customers in it. The girl at the Vuursche Boer brought out our order right away, but she had forgotten how it goes after all this time. (First round should be: two koffie verkeerd, two apple pie, one with whipped cream). Much impressed by the Ventoux stories of the Utrecht delegation (times ranging last Saturday from 1h28', to 1h33' and 1h38'). Windy ride back together to the Vecht river, and we wondered what ever happened to the campaign to prevent the Polder Bethune (near Tienhoven) from being flooded. All the home-made signs have been gone for months now, but I can't find any really recent information. After the turn-off at the Vecht river, all continued to be well with the Coffee Ride world, because I soon ran into the old guy on the tandem. Although, he was alone, riding a regular bike, and he barely looked at me, even though I was wearing long sleeves on what by then was turning into a pretty nice day.

That American "Snub" to the Poles

Earlier this week I wondered why the U.S. sent such a low-level delegation (led by National Security Adviser James Jones) to the Warsaw commemoration of the start of World War II where Chancellor Merkel and Prime-Minister Putin came to represent their countries. My best guess: the administration decided that this wasn't really their commemoration, just like the U.S. back in 1939 didn't really believe that the threat of war in Europe was its problem. We weren't there back in 1939, so let's keep a low profile now also. (I know, doesn't really make sense).

More Own Horn Tooting

Two more issues of my op-ed on Obama and the health care reform mess: the Eindhovens dagblad yesterday, and the Gelderlander last Tuesday. Meanwhile, two comments on the version I mentioned earlier in the August 27 issue of the Brabants Dagblad, both dissenting!

Early Fall Commuting

Rain, wind, long sleeves, and meanwhile the Vuelta on tv. It's definitely early fall, although we're supposed to get more summer days next week. First day of class today, and approaching Weesp, it just did not feel right to ride in the long way, even though that's only two extra miles and I had time. I payed the price a few minutes later, riding along the Amsterdam Rijnkanaal. Three schoolkids came toward me using the whole road and they never moved over. I think it was because they had the sun in their eyes, and, of course, because on this little road virtually without cars they pay no attention whatsoever to anything except themselves. But still, at the last minute I had to steer into the grass to stay clear of them. (Yes, I did yell something angry and profane). I was motoring pretty well, partly thanks to a good tailwind, but also because this summer I've continued to lighten my load on these rides. Last year, I started out with a front fender and mudflap--but it broke in two, last spring. I also used bring a lock, but now I keep one at work, in the bike basement. And I had a seatpost rack, which I used to carry the slippers I wear to get from the showers (in the basement) to my shoes (in my fifth floor office). But last week I got a nice new Pinarello Granfondo backpack at a sale at my new bikeshop, which is not only much nicer than my old pack bought years ago at the Gap, but which also has enough room for my slippers. So I've also taken the rack off. As with the two earlier simplifications, the bike now handles much better. Now, I only have two excuses left for not hammering to and from work: my 28-wide commuter tires, and the fact that the drive train components on this 1992 Trek 2300 are so old, that I really can't get it in a comfortable gear in the big ring. But it feels pretty nice, riding without all that extra weight. So nice that I almost felt like chasing after the 7-8 man group I saw riding out of Amsterdam as I was about to enter it. They were obviously going for a serious training ride, and for a moment I was quite jealous.

The West and Russia

So here's what I've been saving all this time: in an interview last July with the Dutch paper NRC Handelsblad, the Obama administration's ambassador to NATO, Ivo Daalder, said that NATO will be able to expand while maintaining a good relationship with Russia, just like in the 1990s. (The english translation I linked to here differs from the Dutch original in the print version from the July 4-5 issue of the paper, although in both the suggestion is made that NATO expansion does not cause problems with Russia). This is of course not what has happenend. On the contrary, NATO expansion is widely cited as one of the main reasons why relations between Russia and the West have deteriorated the past decade. So what is Daalder saying? What does his answer suggest about the Obama administration's view of relations with Russia? Well, Daalder will speak in The Hague this Thursday, so maybe I'll have an opportunity to ask. But think it basically conveys a pretty hard-nosed view of how one should deal with Moscow, not too different from the way Putin approaches his foreign policy. We'll do business where we can, and that's important, but we're not going to worry too much about how you feel about actions on our part that you know are not meant to threaten you. "Hitting the re-set button" in relations with Moscow doesn't signify a fresh start, at least not in the basic approach. Russia, the administration seems to say, is important, but there are also clear limits to the kind of relationship we can have. Vice president Biden's comments this summer (about Russia's backwardness) are also revealing in this respect. They seem to suggest that because of the way the country is being run under Putin, Russia just won't see the world the way the U.S. and the Europeans (in spite of all their differences) do. This has consequences for what we can achieve with Russia, the administration seems to have concluded. In some areas we just should not even try to satisfy Russian demands, because they're not reasonable, and Moscow can't be satisfied anyway because it sees the West primarily as a rival although not with the same intensity as during the Cold War. NATO expansion is an example, and as Daalder continued in the interview: independent countries have fundamental right to choose their alliances. Of course, this doesn't mean that Georgia and Ukraine will enter the alliance any time soon. A more realistic, hard-nosed policy still does not need to be a stupid policy. Allowing these two countries in soon would certainly anger Russia needlessly, and so I doubt if there will be much action there in the near future (the emphasis is likely going to be on all the things these two countries still need to do to meet the criteria for membership). You can see something similar on the issue of the (anti-Iran) missile defense system planned for deployment in the Czech Republic and Poland, where there are rumors that the administration may put that on hold. The Poles aren't happy, just as they're unhappy with the low-level delegation Washington sent to the World War II commemorations this week where many other countries (Germany, Russia) sent their heads-of-government. But whether that's in any way connected to U.S. Russia policy, I'm not sure. Something for a different post anyway.

Own Horn Tooting

That's when there's suddenly time for blogging, when a new op-ed has been published (this one about the political turnmoil this summer in the U.S. over de Democratic plans to reform health care; in Dutch, as usual). But I'm still planning to write about U.S.-Russian relations (the post I announced weeks ago), and once that bottleneck is behind us, I should write more frequently. I do still have things to say, it's just that I also have lots of things to do.

First Encounters with Mt. Ventoux

It is a legendary climb, but I had never done it. In cycling literature--certainly in Holland, and most certainly this year--you can read pages and pages about the history of people on this old volcano, often accounts by those for whom getting to the top was some kind of personal quest. We saw lots of them, last week, and quite a few really should not have been there and probably never made it to the top. They were most likely Dutch, Belgian, or French, because cars with license plates of these three countries dominated the roads, cars often with relatives of riders stopping every mile or so to shout encouragement. We, on the other hand, did it by ourselves, two-and-a-half times. We were staying in Bédoin--where the most difficult and infamous ascent begins--had all week, and so we took it one step at a time. On the warm-up day, we rode to Sault--the lavender capital of the world, where the easiest of the three climbs up the hill begins--by way of the quiet and scenic Gorges de la Nesque (north side). That day we climbed as far as the Chalet Reynard, the place where, if you go on, you enter the rocky moonscape for which the Ventoux may be known the best. But we were on a warm-up ride, just getting back on the bike after a few days of traveling and trying to get used to the kind of non-stop climbing required here, so we hung a left and descended toward Bédoin over lots and lots of paint applied just days prior by Tour de France fans. 45 miles was plenty. We did less the next day, about 37, but worked much harder, riding to the third Ventoux town, Malaucene, by way of "the other Col de la Madeleine," and riding to the top from there. This makes it sound easy, but it actually takes work. There is a steep section in the middle--one kilometer marker warned of a 12% grade--which I found to be the hardest climbing of the entire week. I lost my rhythm there. Before that, I had been motoring happily most of the time in either the (39x) 22, 24, or 26. Those steep kilometers in the middle, however, made me unhappy in the 28. The length of the thing made the final two kilometers (steep again) tough also. This being a training ride, we forgot to reset our computers at the start, but I estimate it took me about 1 hour and 35 minutes. Descending the mountain (we completed the loop back to Bédoin) you have to pay attention: lots of cyclists coming up and going down, lots of cars doing the same. You really want to maintain a significant margin for error because there are lots of folks who could make one. On day three it was time for the timed expedition from Bédoin. We warmed up by climbing the little Madeleine, first from Bedoin, then from the Malaucene side. Around 8:30 we were at the line, underneath the plaque for the builder of the road up Mt. Ventoux. The entire way up I tried to keep a balance between pushing and pacing myself. It can be windy the last couple of miles, and you also have to contend with the fact that in the long middle section through the woods, there's really only one switchback where you could take a little breather. The rest is pretty much up, up, and up at a pretty good grade. I had it in the 28 shortly after the steep section started, but was able to turn it over fairly smoothly. It was work, but at the same time I wasn't really breathing very hard. Two kilometers or so before the Chalet Reynard, after only having passed people, I suddenly found someone on my wheel. He must have come up from behind, and he was breathing very hard. It made me wonder if I was trying hard enough. But there was still a good ways to go, and I felt I was going at at least 85%. It was hard to gauge. Up high, the wind wasn't bad at all, and my companion and I picked it up a little when the grade leveled off somewhat after the Chalet. Even though he had been yo-yo-ing off my wheel, with about three K to go he took the lead, and then slowly started pulling away. It wasn't an attack or anything (he kept looking back to see what happend to this dude who had been leading him in such a relaxed way), but for some reason I did not follow. The final section is steeper again, and by then you've been climbing for a while, but I still wasn't breathing hard and didn't really feel I was suffering. And yet, I would not pick it up another notch. The same thing happened when a little later a young rider passed me who was spending about an equal amount of time in and out of the saddle. That would have been the way to make up some ground, and somewhere I must have had it in me. Of course, the top wasn't very far anymore, so the time gained would have been little. That went through my mind also. But the fact remains that rather suddenly I wasn't moving so well any more. I suppose the Ventoux got me a little. So that's how I got to the top, in an even one hour thirty-six minutes, not out of breath, not terribly tired, and somewhat dissatisfied. A faster time is possible. How? Knowing the mountain, having done the climb, should help. Then, getting the body more used to this kind of climbing should also make a difference. Other than that, you just have to train hard, go to the limit on a regular basis, preferably in races. Since moving to Holland, I haven't raced, and I have done very few of the kind of tough training rides I used to get on a weekly basis in Milwaukee. We considered making another attempt on our final day in Bédoin, but then it would have looked as if this actually matters. So instead we chose to do a big, seventy-mile loop all around the mountain, by way of the South side of the Gorges de la Nesque (deserted, rough, and very scenic), Sault, more rough side roads, then around the back of Mt. Ventoux, and back into Malaucene by way of a quiet little up-and-down road through Veaux. Along the way, we agreed that if we had made another attempt that day, it would probably not have resulted in a better time. And it did feel nice, there in the Toulourenc valley behind the mountain, just to be able to let the legs move freely again, without gravity constantly pulling you back.

Amstel Gold Race Hills

I'll have things to say about Obama, the rest of the West, and Russia later, but first a quick report on a pretty good day on the bike in Zuid-Limburg, the area where the Amstel Gold Race is being held every year. It's a two-hour + drive to get there, but it's worth it (at least on a Sunday, when Dutch traffic is manageable). We rode out of Gulpen on a warm and somewhat humid day. It's up-and-down almost non-stop. You get quality miles, in other words, and 52 today was a very fine total. Leaving Gulpen, we took a little road toward the Belgian town of Teuven. There, we followed the signs to the Gelato Farm--unfortunately not to get gelato (we had barely done five miles, although I do want to check out the home-made stuff they offer there), but to do the "bovenste bos" climb, and nice, gradual, not too difficult 1-2 miler through the woods. The next climb was after Epen (where someone was being serenaded by the local marching band for his or her birthday): the Camerig, a longer one of about two miles, sort of toward Vijlen. I attacked this one happily in the 19. However, as the climbs kept appearing in quick succession, I was happy to revert to the 21 and 23 and eventually looked over at what seemed to be 25s on my companions' bikes with some envy. From Vijlen to the three-country point (those would be the Netherlands, Belgium and Germany), by way of two more uphills. "Vlaai" (local pie) at a pretty nice restaurant there, then on to a couple of hills they ride in the finale of the Amstel Gold Race: Kruisberg (short but steep), Eyserbos (steep, but not so short), and Keutenberg (of legendary steepness). Instead of heading toward Valkenburg and the Cauberg (too much traffic, and we had gotten used to nice little roads without too many cars or even motorcycles), we went to Gulpen and it's "berg" (easier through the woods from the town side that the open back side from the town of Partij). Then to Eys and the Eyserweg, which runs up the same hill as the Eyserbosweg but at a lower grade (and therefore longer). Right at the top toward Simpelveld, from where we tackled the Hulsbergerweg. There, my tongue suddenly started to stick to to roof of my mouth even though I thought I had been drinking well. But I hadn't, because soon after that climb I began to have cramping symptoms which became cramps on the last climb we did: de Dode Man (appropriately named) just before Gulpen. Eleven climbs, and we did our best on all of them, and so back in Gulpen we agreed that we had earned our pancakes. We must have looked like we needed them, because they brought them out at this busy place by the mill within five minutes after we placed our order.

Dekker and Other Alleged Dopers, P.S.

Let's not forget that just about every professional rider caught using banned substances is also--actually first and foremost--a very talented, hard-working athlete. It's nothing new but it bears repeating: people take "doping" for all kinds of reasons, but doping can never turn a mediocre rider into a champion. And the line between riding "clean" and breaking the rules is blurred, gray one--not a sharp black one. This is because racing and training at the top level in this sport (and everyone in the peloton is at this top level) is fundamentally unhealthy. It often makes you sick, and thus you need medical care in order to be able to do your job. So what medical care is permissible, and what crosses "the" line? There will never be unambiguous answers that settle every conceivable issue, because medical science, for one thing, continues to evolve. Yet, the debate--distinguishing between stuff that's mostly in the interest of the rider's health on the one hand, and stuff that's primarily performance-enhancing on the other--is essential. Try to imagine, really imagine, a world in which anything goes. The best we can do is to make distinctions (and devise sactions) that are as honest, fair, and as clear as possible. Exactly where EPO (for a roadie like Dekker, in December) would fall is an interesting question.

If It's Too Good To Be True ...

... it probably isn't true, not in the world of professional cycling, past or present. Latest example: Dutch prodigy Thomas Dekker, still only 24. Long considered one of the biggest talents of his generation, he won the Tirreno-Adriatico stage race in 2006, and the Tour of Romandie the following year, but last year he left Rabobank under a cloud. Strange things appeared to be happening with his blood values, and in addition the rider had been working independently with a controversial Italian doctor/coach--all things Rabo considered too risky after the Rasmussen affair of 2007. (There's another example of "too good to be true"). Yesterday it was announced that a second test of an out-of-competition urine sample from December 2007 revealed the use of EPO (dynepo). Dekker has responded (today, in the Dutch daily de Telegraaf) by saying that he feels he's being screwed: a retest just before the Tour de France, what's that all about? Interestingly, in this response he doesn't comment on his possible use of EPO (no denial, in other words). Interviewed on Dutch radio this morning, new national coach, former TI-Raleigh and Kwantum team member, and Amstel Gold Race organizer Leo van Vliet made sure to point out that Dekker so far only has been accused (B sample still to come, I suppose), but that if guilty, a two-year ban would be too lenient. According to Van Vliet, to play around with EPO at a time (2007, of all years) when cycling's reputation, indeed its survival, was at stake is terribly irresponsible. The Volkskrant this morning took it one step further, right at the beginning of its report on the matter: Dekker's career is probably over.

Obama's Foreign Policy: End of the Honeymoon

I have an op-ed this week in the papers of the GPD (in Dutch, Nederlands Dagblad today) about how Obama's ideas about America's relationship with the outside world ("engagement" and such) are running into the realities of that world. Iran is the best example, but we'll also have to see whether the president will be able to move Israel's government in the direction it wants it to go. In Iraq (withdrawal from towns and cities) the administration is sticking with the agreed-upon game plan, but even though that whole thing was someone else's idea and Obama was opposed to it from the start, if things go wrong it will still be his responsibility (nicely ambiguous term, allowing for the author to mean: his fault, his problem, or both--not advisable for use by students). Not that Obama's new foreign policy emphasis is a failure already. It's more that the rubber (vision) was going to hit the road (real world) at some point, and now things are the way they always are: difficult but not hopeless. Another reason why things aren't hopeless (the word really is inappropriate) is that the goodwill Obama has been able to create around the world through his speeches (Prague, Cairo), his ban on torture, and his planned closing of the Guantanamo Bay detention center is real and is likely to help his diplomacy down the line. Read all about it!

The Cold War and Iran

If history can help us think about contemporary problems, one has to think in general terms, without losing sight of the unique features of both the contemporary case and the historical analogy. So what, if anything, can Cold War history do for us with regard to present-day Iran? In the past, I've thought about East-West detente as a possible example: mutually antagonistic governments (and ideologies) finding ways of limited cooperation because they also have joint interests. That hasn't worked so well for Iran, so far. Obama seems to want to go down this path, but the past couple of weeks have made a detente with the islamic police state an even more distant prospect than it was before. The Wall Street Journal today suggests another Cold War analogy, that of U.S. support for the Solidarity opposition in Poland in the 1980s.

All of which means that there are opportunities for the Obama Administration to exploit, provided it envisions a democratic and peaceful Iran as a strategic American aim. That doesn't mean military confrontation with the mullahs. But it does require taking every opportunity to apply consistent pressure on Iran while exploiting its internal tensions and contradictions.

Granted, this so-called money quote is a bit meager, but at the same time it's worth considering what the West can now do to help the opposition keep up the pressure, what we can do to keep the mullahs on the defensive. It's not as if working for change through the regime is promising any quick rewards right now.

Summer Commuting

Now we're getting somewhere: 23-29 degrees Celcius all week (mid-70s to low-80s). Let's hope it lasts. Today was the first single jersey commute of the year. There have been many other nice days, but all a bit chilly in the morning for just one jersey. Everything is so much easier now: no layering, no jacket, no gloves or balaclava, no lights--just the bike, shorts, jersey, and socks. The warm weather makes the legs go good too. On top of all this, there was some fog this morning, which meant virtually no wind. Part of summer commuting is to find a long way to work and back. I used to have wonderful long versions of my commute in Athens, Ohio (some nice quiet extra climbing through town), Los Alamos, New Mexico (riding home from the lab by Bandelier), Pittsburgh (awesome climbs through all kinds of outlying neighborhoods), and even Milwaukee (where I lived really close to campus but on certain mornings got an extra mile or so along Lake Michigan). On my current commute, I don't really need any extra miles. But a couple of weeks ago I was forced to explore alternative routes due to a big construction project along my regular, 16 mile-long route. I've written about the IJburg-Muiden route. Last week, with my regular commuter in the shop, I had an opportunity to do this route on the Klein, meaning with a computer (yes, I took the risk of parking this still very fine bike in downtown Amsterdam for a day, and got away with it). On the way out I followed the Vecht river all the way to the end, at the small city of Muiden, then IJburg, and back to my regular route by way of the Nescio bridge. On the way home I rode East of Muiden to the Keverdijk. It turns out that's a good four miles longer than my usual route (18.4 and 18.2, versus 15.9 and 16.3). Four miles, three or four times a week, that's something. If you went the long way all year, it would add a few hundred miles to the very important annual total. Right now, it's just nice to have a choice, and to have the new route be even more scenic.

Helping The Newspapers

So far today, I've read two, and third may be on the way. I payed for two of them, which is the message of this short post (my reading chair in the sun is a much better place, right now). The Dutch papers have been reporting on a government-sponsored study just released on how the newspaper business could be helped. That's obfuscating, unacceptable passive voice, except that this is Holland and therefore it's implied that the question is whether government should or should not do something. One of the study's recommendations is to consider a tax on internet subscriptions (your connection at home), in order to remind users that the news they're getting that way really isn't free. The revenues would go into an already existing fund with which the government helps maintain diverse and independent news outlets. That the newspapers need help, just about everybody accepts. But it would really be much better if the government stayed out of it, at least with redistributive schemes such as these. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, it would be much better if people who appreciate the value of these professional news organizations (on-line or print) would be willing to support those organizations with their paid subscriptions or frequent incidental purchases. Reader contributions only pay part of a paper's bills, but enough of them, as evidence of reader commitment, will also boost advertising sales (probably the main chunk of a paper's income). I could go on and on, talking about this in greater detail (the value of holding a paper newspaper in your hands; the importance for a democracy of having many competing, professional newspaper organizations where stuff gets verified, placed in context) and some day (when it rains) I'm sure I will.

Funny Moment On The Sunday Ride

On the way to the medieval city of Oudewater, we're riding through the speck of a town called Blokland when up ahead on the narrow path we see what seem to be two other cyclists. That's always a moment of anticipation, because meeting other cyclists like that, you can get to ride with new people. Something different, and potentially something exciting. But as we get closer it turns out they're a middle-aged couple (Asian looking, if I remember correctly) out for a walk, wearing Rabobank cycling jerseys of the team's early period. You just never see that. They're cycling jerseys, and the Dutch care about sticking to what's supposed to happen. Unlike the much more easy-going Americans, they don't wear whatever feels comfortable. Instead, they wear what tradition requires you to wear in a given situation. Personally, all I could do was try to process this unusual sight. John, at the head of our three-man train, however, was more quick to the draw. As we rode by them, he called out: fietsen vergeten? (forgot your bikes?)

Who Wants To Be President?

Forget, for a moment, that right-wing zealots and conspiracy theorists at home view him as a danger to the country. And let's also put aside the financial-economic crisis, growing unemployment, and the fact that while this isn't over by a long shot, quite a few people seem to think that we're out of the woods and no real reform is required any more. Just think, instead, of what foreign policy looks like for President Obama at the moment. Especially, think of the customary national security briefing with which presidents traditionally start their work day. The focus this week of course is on Iran, which is no simple case of freedom v. tyranny (although that's still part of it), as many on the right seem to imply. But the more dangerous problem right now is probably North Korea, which has just upped the ante in its Cold War against the U.S. and its allies (South Korea, Japan). There hasn't been too much help from China, and some argue that Beijing may be using the North Koreans in their larger chess game with the U.S. for influence in East Asia. So now the U.S. is strengthening the defenses of Hawaii, in case Kim Yong-Il's next missile goes in that direction (as his government has threatened). There has been a new U.N. Security Council resolution, and there is a new resolve to intercept North Korean ships suspected of transporting either nuclear materials, missile techology, or both to other unsavory regimes. The sides aren't really on speaking terms, and neither is ready to back down. It reminds me of what someone wrote around the time of Obama's inauguration: it looks a little like 1961, when there was also a new, charismatic, but untested U.S. president coming into office determined to work things out internationally. JFK had to learn the hard way that that's easier said than done with an erratic opponent pursuing his own agenda. He screwed up by signing off on the Bay of Pigs invasion, had an acrimonious, unproductive meeting with Khrushchev in Vienna, and in general didn't get anywhere with his new agenda. During the Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962, he did perform admirably, of course, but so did--eventually--Khrushchev. If we call Kim Yong-Il (and Ahmedinejad, and Bin-Laden and friends, and Putin) Obama's Khrushchev, you see the fix the president is in. Because ultimately Khrushchev was not crazy or utterly cynical, something we really can't say of Obama's international nemeses. Perhaps we'll be reassured, but for now we'll have to assume the worst. It's not clear what can be done. While military responses to threats like North Korea's are very likely to make things worse, alternative approaches will probably also be ineffective. Hu Ziang argues that what Kim is after is "a reliable security guarantee" from Washington. But he does not explain how this would make Kim's regime more easy to live with--probably because he can't. Nobody can. Either way you go, it's likely to get worse. Anyone who wants Obama's job can raise their hand.